Monetary dynamics in a general equilibrium version of the Baumol-Tobin model

I study the welfare cost of inflation and the effect on prices after a permanent increase in the interest rate. In the steady state, the real money demand is homogeneous of degree one in income and its interest-rate elasticity is approximately equal to −1/2. Consumers are indifferent between an economy with 10% p.a. inflation and one with zero inflation if their income is 1% higher in the first economy. A permanent increase in the interest rate makes the price level to drop initially and inflation to adjust slowly to its steady state level.

Ensaios em gestão de risco e regulação bancária

Esta tese é constituída por três ensaios. O primeiro ensaio analisa a informação pública disponível sobre o risco das carteiras de crédito dos bancos brasileiros, sendo dividido em dois capítulos. O primeiro analisa a limitação da informação pública disponibilizada pelos bancos e pelo Banco Central, quando comparada a informação gerencial disponível internamente pelos bancos. Concluiu-se que existe espaço para o aumento da transparência na divulgação das informações, fato que vem ocorrendo gradativamente no Brasil através de novas normas relacionadas ao Pilar 3 de Basileia II e à divulgação de informações mais detalhas pelo Bacen, como, por exemplo, aquelas do “Top50” . A segunda parte do primeiro ensaio mostra a discrepância entre o índice de inadimplência contábil (NPL) e a probabilidade de inadimplência (PD) e também discute a relação entre provisão e perda esperada. Através da utilização de matrizes de migração e de uma simulação baseada na sobreposição de safras de carteira de crédito de grandes bancos, concluiu-se que o índice de inadimplência subestima a PD e que a provisão constituída pelos bancos é menor que a perda esperada do SFN. O segundo ensaio relaciona a gestão de risco à discriminação de preço. Foi desenvolvido um modelo que consiste em um duopólio de Cournot em um mercado de crédito de varejo, em que os bancos podem realizar discriminação de terceiro grau. Neste modelo, os potenciais tomadores de crédito podem ser de dois tipos, de baixo ou de alto risco, sendo que tomadores de baixo risco possuem demanda mais elástica. Segundo o modelo, se o custo para observar o tipo do cliente for alto, a estratégia dos bancos será não discriminar (pooling equilibrium). Mas, se este custo for suficientemente baixo, será ótimo para os bancos cobrarem taxas diferentes para cada grupo. É argumentado que o Acordo de Basileia II funcionou como um choque exógeno que deslocou o equilíbrio para uma situação com maior discriminação. O terceiro ensaio é divido em dois capítulos. O primeiro discute a aplicação dos conceitos de probabilidade subjetiva e incerteza Knigthiana a modelos de VaR e a importância da avaliação do “risco de modelo”, que compreende os riscos de estimação, especificação e identificação. O ensaio propõe que a metodologia dos “quatro elementos” de risco operacional (dados internos, externos, ambiente de negócios e cenários) seja estendida à mensuração de outros riscos (risco de mercado e risco de crédito). A segunda parte deste último ensaio trata da aplicação do elemento análise de cenários para a mensuração da volatilidade condicional nas datas de divulgação econômica relevante, especificamente nos dias de reuniões do Copom.

On uniqueness of equilibrium in the Kyle Model

A longstanding unresolved question is whether the one-period Kyle Model of an informed trader and a noisily informed market maker has an equilibrium that is different from the closed-form solution derived by Kyle (1985). This note advances what is known about this open problem.

Some notes about the determination of current account equilibrium real exchange rate and the relation between real exchange rate and productive specialization

The objective of these notes is to present a simple mathematical model of the determination of current account real exchange rate as defined by Bresser-Pereira (2010); i.e. the real exchange rate that guarantees the inter temporal equilibrium of balance of payments and to show the relation between Real Exchange rate and Productive Specialization at theoretical and empirical level.

Deuterium Equilibrium Time in Saliva of Newborn Infants

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Spatio-temporal dynamics and transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations in Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

The sensitivity of parameters that govern the stability of population size in Chrysomya albiceps and describe its spatial dynamics was evaluated in this study. The dynamics was modeled using a density-dependent model of population growth. Our simulations show that variation in fecundity and mainly in survival has marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations. C. albiceps exhibits a two-point limit cycle, but the introduction of diffusive dispersal induces an evident qualitative shift from two-point limit cycle to a one fixed-point dynamics. Population dynamics of C. albiceps is here compared to dynamics of Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria.

Dynamics of experimental populations of native and introduced blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae): mathematical modelling and the transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations

The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.

Chemoenzymatic Synthesis of alpha-Hydroxy-beta-methyl-gamma-hydroxy Esters: Role of the Keto-Enol Equilibrium To Control the Stereoselective Hydrogenation in a Key Step

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Surface equilibrium angle for anisotropic grain growth in SnO2 systems

Usually, the kinetic models used in the study of sintered ceramic are performed by means of indirect physical tests, such as, results obtained from data of linear shrinkage and mass loss. This fact is justified by the difficulty in the determinations of intrinsic parameters of ceramic materials along every sintering process. In this way, the technique of atomic force microscopy (AFM) was used in order to determine the importance and the evolution of the dihedral angle in the sintering of 0.5 mol% MnO2-doped tin dioxide obtained by the polymeric precursor method.

A Contribution to the Estimation of Binary Halide and Pseudo-Halide Equilibrium Constants using a Linear Extrapolation Methodology

The molar single ion activity coefficient (y(F)) of fluoride ions was determined at 25 degrees C and ionic strengths between 0.100 and 3.00 mol L(-1) NaClO(4) using an ion-selective electrode. The activity coefficient dependency on ionic strength was determined to be Phi(F) = log y(F) = 0.2315I-0.041I(2). The function Phi(F)(I), combined with functions obtained in previous work for copper (Phi(Cu)) and hydrogen (Phi(H)), allowed us to make the estimation of the stoichiometric and thermodynamic protonation constants of some halides and pseudo-halides as well as the formation constants of some pseudo-halides and fluoride 1:1 bivalent cation complexes. The calculation procedure proposed in this paper is consistent with critically-selected experimental data. It was demonstrated that it is possible to use Phi(F)(I) for predicting the thermodynamic equilibrium parameters independently of Pearson's hardness of acids and bases.

Equilibrium, Thermoanalytical and Spectroscopic Studies to Characterize Phytic Acid Complexes with Mn(II) and Co(II)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Environmental coordination chemistry: Binary systems comprising some bivalent cations and monocarboxylates in aqueous solution. Ionic medium effects on equilibrium constants

The molar single activity coefficients associated with propionate ion (Pr) have been determined at 25 degrees C and ionic strengths comprised between 0.300 and 3.00 M, adjusted with NaClO4, as background electrolyte. The investigation was carried out potentiometrically by using a second class Hg/Hg2Pr2 electrode. It was found that the dependence of propionate activity coefficients as a function of ionic strength (I) can be assessed through the following empirical equation: log y(Pr) = -0.185 I-3/2 + 0.104 I-2. Next, simple equations relating stoichiometric protonation constants of several monocarboxylates and formation constants associated with 1:1 complexes involving some bivalent cations and selected monocarboxylates, in aqueous solution, at 25 degrees C, as a function of ionic strength were derived, allowing the interconversion of parameters from one ionic strength to another, up to I = 3.00 M. In addition, thermodynamic formation constants as well as parameters associated with activity coefficients of the complex species in the equilibria are estimated. The body of results shows that the proposed calculation procedure is very consistent with critically selected experimental data.

Ionic medium effects on equilibrium constants .2. Binary systems comprising some bivalent cations and monocarboxylates in aqueous solution

Simple equations were derived relating stoichiometric protonation constants of several monocarboxylates and formation constants associated with 1:1 complexes involving some bivalent cations and selected monocarboxylates, in aqueous sodium perchlorate media, at 25 degrees C, as a function of ionic strength (I), allowing the interconversion of parameters from one ionic strength to another, up to I = 3.00 M. In addition, thermodynamic formation constants as well as activity coefficients of the species involved in the equilibria were estimated. The results show that the proposed calculation procedure is very consistent with critically selected experimental data.