Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot, HEPN-707, 2015

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is responsible for approximately 4,100 bridges and structures that are a part of the state’s primary highway system, which includes the Interstate, US, and Iowa highway routes. A pilot study was conducted for six bridges in two Iowa river basins—the Cedar River Basin and the South Skunk River Basin—to develop a methodology to evaluate their vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather. The six bridges had been either closed or severely stressed by record streamflow within the past seven years. An innovative methodology was developed to generate streamflow scenarios given climate change projections. The methodology selected appropriate rainfall projection data to feed into a streamflow model that generated continuous peak annual streamflow series for 1960 through 2100, which were used as input to PeakFQ to estimate return intervals for floods. The methodology evaluated the plausibility of rainfall projections and credibility of streamflow simulation while remaining consistent with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) protocol for estimating the return interval for floods. The results were conveyed in an innovative graph that combined historical and scenario-based design metrics for use in bridge vulnerability analysis and engineering design. The pilot results determined the annual peak streamflow response to climate change likely will be basin-size dependent, four of the six pilot study bridges would be exposed to increased frequency of extreme streamflow and would have higher frequency of overtopping, the proposed design for replacing the Interstate 35 bridges over the South Skunk River south of Ames, Iowa is resilient to climate change, and some Iowa DOT bridge design policies could be reviewed to consider incorporating climate change information.

Viticulture under climate change : understanding vulnerability and adaptive capacity of wineries and growers. A case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia

Climate change may pose challenges and opportunities to viticulture, and much research has focused in studying the likely impacts on grapes and wine production in different regions worldwide. This study assesses the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the viticulture sector under changing climate conditions, based on a case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia. Farm assets, livelihood strategies, farmer-market interactions and climate changes perceptions are analysed through semi-structured interviews with different types of wineries and growers. Both types of actors are equally exposed to biophysical stressors but unevenly affected by socioeconomic changes. While wineries are vulnerable because of the current economic crisis and the lack of diversification of their work, which may affect their income or production, growers are mainly affected by the low prices of their products and the lack of fix contracts. These socioeconomic stressors strongly condition their capacity to adapt to climate change, meaning that growers prioritize their immediate income problems, rather than future socioeconomic or climate threats. Therefore, growers undertake reactive adaptation to climate changing conditions, mainly based on ancient knowledge, whilst wineries combine both reactive and anticipatory adaptation practices. These circumstances should be addressed in order to allow better anticipatory adaptation to be implemented, thus avoiding future climate threats.

Assessing farmers' vulnerability to climate change : a case study in Karnataka, India

In the context of observed climate change impacts and their effect on agriculture and crop production, this study intends to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods through a study case in Karnataka, India. The social approach of climate change vulnerability in this study case includes defining and exploring factors that determine farmers’ vulnerability in four villages. Key informant interviews, farmer workshops and structured household interviews were used for data collection. To analyse the data, we adapted and applied three vulnerability indices: Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI-IPCC and the Livelihood Effect Index (LEI), and used descriptive statistical methods. The data was analysed at two scales: whole sample-level and household level. The results from applying the indices for the whole-sample level show that this community's vulnerability to climate change is moderate, whereas the household-level results show that most of the households' vulnerability is high-very high, while 15 key drivers of vulnerability were identified. Results and limitations of the study are discussed under the rural livelihoods framework, in which the indices are based, allowing a better understanding of the social behaviouraltrends, as well as an holistic and integrated view of the climate change, agriculture, and livelihoods processes shaping vulnerability. We conclude that these indices, although a straightforward method to assess vulnerability, have limitations that could account for inaccuracies and inability to be standardised for benchmarking, therefore we stress the need for further research.

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

Survival and early seedling growth of conifers with different shade tolerance in a Sitka spruce spacing trial and relationship to understorey light climate

Abstract

Prognostic and predictive value of centrally reviewed Ki-67 labeling index in postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive breast cancer: results from Breast International Group Trial 1-98 comparing adjuvant tamoxifen with letrozole.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the prognostic and predictive value of Ki-67 labeling index (LI) in a trial comparing letrozole (Let) with tamoxifen (Tam) as adjuvant therapy in postmenopausal women with early breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Breast International Group (BIG) trial 1-98 randomly assigned 8,010 patients to four treatment arms comparing Let and Tam with sequences of each agent. Of 4,922 patients randomly assigned to receive 5 years of monotherapy with either agent, 2,685 had primary tumor material available for central pathology assessment of Ki-67 LI by immunohistochemistry and had tumors confirmed to express estrogen receptors after central review. The prognostic and predictive value of centrally measured Ki-67 LI on disease-free survival (DFS) were assessed among these patients using proportional hazards modeling, with Ki-67 LI values dichotomized at the median value of 11%. RESULTS: Higher values of Ki-67 LI were associated with adverse prognostic factors and with worse DFS (hazard ratio [HR; high:low] = 1.8; 95% CI, 1.4 to 2.3). The magnitude of the treatment benefit for Let versus Tam was greater among patients with high tumor Ki-67 LI (HR [Let:Tam] = 0.53; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.72) than among patients with low tumor Ki-67 LI (HR [Let:Tam] = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.57 to 1.15; interaction P = .09). CONCLUSION: Ki-67 LI is confirmed as a prognostic factor in this study. High Ki-67 LI levels may identify a patient group that particularly benefits from initial Let adjuvant therapy.

Elevation gradient of successful plant traits for colonizing alpine summits under climate change

Upward migration of plant species due to climate change has become evident in several European mountain ranges. It is still, however, unclear whether certain plant traits increase the probability that a species will colonize mountain summits or vanish, and whether these traits differ with elevation. Here, we used data from a repeat survey of the occurrence of plant species on 120 summits, ranging from 2449 to 3418 m asl, in south-eastern Switzerland to identify plant traits that increase the probability of colonization or extinction in the 20th century. Species numbers increased across all plant traits considered. With some traits, however, numbers increased proportionally more. The most successful colonizers seemed to prefer warmer temperatures and well-developed soils. They produced achene fruits and/or seeds with pappus appendages. Conversely, cushion plants and species with capsule fruits were less efficient as colonizers. Observed changes in traits along the elevation gradient mainly corresponded to the natural distribution of traits. Extinctions did not seem to be clearly related to any trait. Our study showed that plant traits varied along both temporal and elevational gradients. While seeds with pappus seemed to be advantageous for colonization, most of the trait changes also mirrored previous gradients of traits along elevation and hence illustrated the general upward migration of plant species. An understanding of the trait characteristics of colonizing species is crucial for predicting future changes in mountain vegetation under climate change.

Electron microscopic visualization of protein-DNA interactions at the estrogen responsive element and in the first intron of the Xenopus laevis vitellogenin gene.

Stable protein-DNA complexes can be assembled in vitro at the 5' end of Xenopus laevis vitellogenin genes using extracts of nuclei from estrogen-induced frog liver and visualized by electron microscopy. Complexes at the three following sites can be identified on the gene B2: the transcription initiation site, the estrogen responsive element (ERE) and in the first intron. The complex at the transcription initiation site is stabilized by dinucleotides and thus represents a ternary transcription complex. The formation of the complexes at the two other sites is enhanced by estrogen and is reduced by tamoxifen, an antagonist of estrogen, while this latter effect is reversed by adding an excess of hormone. No sequence homology is apparent between the site containing the ERE and the binding site in intron I and functional tests in MCF-7 cells suggest that these two sites are not equivalent. Finally, we made use of previously characterized deletion mutants of the 5' flanking region of the gene B1, a close relative of the gene B2, to demonstrate that the 13-bp palindromic core element of the ERE is involved in the formation of the complexes observed upstream of the transcription initiation site.

Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened European tree frog.

Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.

Genetic diversity in caribou linked to past and future climate change

Climate-driven range fluctuations during the Pleistocene have continuously reshaped species distribution leading to populations of contrasting genetic diversity. Contemporary climate change is similarly influencing species distribution and population structure, with important consequences for patterns of genetic diversity and species' evolutionary potential1. Yet few studies assess the impacts of global climatic changes on intraspecific genetic variation2, 3, 4, 5. Here, combining analyses of molecular data with time series of predicted species distributions and a model of diffusion through time over the past 21 kyr, we unravel caribou response to past and future climate changes across its entire Holarctic distribution. We found that genetic diversity is geographically structured with two main caribou lineages, one originating from and confined to Northeastern America, the other originating from Euro-Beringia but also currently distributed in western North America. Regions that remained climatically stable over the past 21 kyr maintained a high genetic diversity and are also predicted to experience higher climatic stability under future climate change scenarios. Our interdisciplinary approach, combining genetic data and spatial analyses of climatic stability (applicable to virtually any taxon), represents a significant advance in inferring how climate shapes genetic diversity and impacts genetic structure.

Controlling anomalous stresses in soft field-responsive systems

We report a phenomenon occurring in field-responsive suspensions: shear-induced anomalous stresses. Competition between a rotating field and a shear flow originates a multiplicity of anomalous stress behaviors in suspensions of bound dimers constituted by induced dipoles. The great variety of stress regimes includes nonmonotonic behaviors, multiresonances, negative viscosity effect, and blockades. The reversibility of the transitions between the different regimes and the self-similarity of the stresses make this phenomenon controllable and therefore applicable to modify macroscopic properties of soft condensed matter phases.