A framework for state-based time-series analysis and prediction

Time-series analysis and prediction play an important role in state-based systems that involve dealing with varying situations in terms of states of the world evolving with time. Generally speaking, the world in the discourse persists in a given state until something occurs to it into another state. This paper introduces a framework for prediction and analysis based on time-series of states. It takes a time theory that addresses both points and intervals as primitive time elements as the temporal basis. A state of the world under consideration is defined as a set of time-varying propositions with Boolean truth-values that are dependent on time, including properties, facts, actions, events and processes, etc. A time-series of states is then formalized as a list of states that are temporally ordered one after another. The framework supports explicit expression of both absolute and relative temporal knowledge. A formal schema for expressing general time-series of states to be incomplete in various ways, while the concept of complete time-series of states is also formally defined. As applications of the formalism in time-series analysis and prediction, we present two illustrating examples.

Zone based systems design framework for the realisation of efficient block cipher based message authentication code algorithms

A zone based systems design framework is described and utilised in the implementation of a message authentication code (MAC) algorithm based on symmetric key block ciphers. The resulting block cipher based MAC algorithm may be used to provide assurance of the authenticity and, hence, the integrity of binary data. Using software simulation to benchmark against the de facto cipher block chaining MAC (CBC-MAC) variant used in the TinySec security protocol for wireless sensor networks and the NIST cipher block chaining MAC standard, CMAC; we show that our zone based systems design framework can lead to block cipher based MAC constructs that point to improvements in message processing efficiency, processing throughput and processing latency.

The role of economics in ecosystem based management: The case of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive, First lessons learnt and way forward

The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) sets out a plan of action relating to marine environmental policy and in particular to achieving ‘good environmental status’ (GES) in European marine waters by 2020. Article 8.1 (c) of the Directive calls for ‘an economic and social analysis of the use of those waters and of the cost of degradation of the marine environment’. The MSFD is ‘informed’ by the Ecosystem Approach to management, with GES interpreted in terms of ecosystem functioning and services provision. Implementation of the Ecosystem Approach is expected to be by adaptive management policy and practice. The initial socio-economic assessment was made by maritime EU Member States between 2011 and 2012, with future updates to be made on a regular basis. For the majority of Member States, this assessment has led to an exercise combining an analysis of maritime activities both at national and coastal zone scales, and an analysis of the non-market value of marine waters. In this paper we examine the approaches taken in more detail, outline the main challenges facing the Member States in assessing the economic value of achieving GES as outlined in the Directive and make recommendations for the theoretically sound and practically useful completion of the required follow-up economic assessments specified in the MSFD.

The role of economics in ecosystem based management: The case of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive, First lessons learnt and way forward

The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) sets out a plan of action relating to marine environmental policy and in particular to achieving ‘good environmental status’ (GES) in European marine waters by 2020. Article 8.1 (c) of the Directive calls for ‘an economic and social analysis of the use of those waters and of the cost of degradation of the marine environment’. The MSFD is ‘informed’ by the Ecosystem Approach to management, with GES interpreted in terms of ecosystem functioning and services provision. Implementation of the Ecosystem Approach is expected to be by adaptive management policy and practice. The initial socio-economic assessment was made by maritime EU Member States between 2011 and 2012, with future updates to be made on a regular basis. For the majority of Member States, this assessment has led to an exercise combining an analysis of maritime activities both at national and coastal zone scales, and an analysis of the non-market value of marine waters. In this paper we examine the approaches taken in more detail, outline the main challenges facing the Member States in assessing the economic value of achieving GES as outlined in the Directive and make recommendations for the theoretically sound and practically useful completion of the required follow-up economic assessments specified in the MSFD.

Critical reading of science-based news reports: Establishing a knowledge skills and attitudes framework

A recognised aim of science education is to promote critical engagement with science in the media. Evidence would suggest that this is challenging for both teachers and pupils and that at science education does not yet adequately prepare young people for this task. Furthermore, in the absence of clear guidance as to what this means and how this may be achieved it is difficult for teachers to develop approaches and resources that address the matter and that systematically promote such critical engagement within their teaching programmes. Twenty-six individuals with recognised expertise or interest in science in the media, drawn from a range of disciplines and areas of practice, constituted a specialist panel in this study. The question this research sought to answer was ‘what are the elements of knowledge, skill and attitude which underpin critical reading of science based news reports’? During in-depth individual interviews the panel were asked to explore what they considered to be essential elements of knowledge, skills and attitude which people need to enable them to respond critically to news reports with a science component. Analysis of the data revealed fourteen fundamental elements which together contribute to an individual’s capacity to engage critically with science-based news. These are classified in five categories ‘knowledge of science’, ‘knowledge of writing and language’, ‘knowledge about news, newspapers and journalism’, ‘skills’ and ‘attitudes’. Illustrative profiles of each category along with indicators of critical engagement are presented. The implications for curriculum planning and pedagogy are considered.

The Relevance Framework for Category-Based Induction: Evidence From Garden-Path Arguments

Relevance theory (Sperber & Wilson. 1995) suggests that people expend cognitive effort when processing information in proportion to the cognitive effects to be gained from doing so. This theory has been used to explain how people apply their knowledge appropriately when evaluating category-based inductive arguments (Medin, Coley, Storms, & Hayes, 2003). In such arguments, people are told that a property is true of premise categories and are asked to evaluate the likelihood that it is also true of conclusion categories. According to the relevance framework, reasoners generate hypotheses about the relevant relation between the categories in the argument. We reasoned that premises inconsistent with early hypotheses about the relevant relation would have greater effects than consistent premises. We designed three premise garden-path arguments where the same 3rd premise was either consistent or inconsistent with likely hypotheses about the relevant relation. In Experiments 1 and 2, we showed that effort expended processing consistent premises (measured via reading times) was significantly less than effort expended on inconsistent premises. In Experiment 2 and 3, we demonstrated a direct relation between cognitive effect and cognitive effort. For garden-path arguments, belief change given inconsistent 3rd premises was significantly correlated with Premise 3 (Experiment 3) and conclusion (Experiments 2 and 3) reading times. For consistent arguments, the correlation between belief change and reading times did not approach significance. These results support the relevance framework for induction but are difficult to accommodate under other approaches.

An Affordance Based Approach to Decision Making in Sport: Discussing a Novel Methodological Framework

Decision making is a fundamental clement of any sport, particularly open, fast, dynamic team sports such as football, basketball and rugby. At the elite level, athletes appear to consistently make good decisions in situations that are highly temporally constrained. To further understand how this is done has been the aim of researchers within the perception-action field for several decades. The purpose of this article is to present novel contributions, both theoretical and methodological, that are pushing the boundaries of this area of research. The theoretical framework (Ecological psychology) within which the work is posited will be described, followed by a description of Virtual Reality (VR) technology and how it relates to the theoretical aims. Finally, an applied example will be summarised in order to demonstrate how the theoretical approach and the methodological approach come together in practice.

Demersal fish biodiversity: species-level indicators and trends-based targets for the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

The maintenance of biodiversity is a fundamental theme of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Appropriate indicators to monitor change in biodiversity, along with associated targets representing "good environmental status" (GES), are required to be in place by July 2012. A method for selecting species-specific metrics to fulfil various specified indicator roles is proposed for demersal fish communities. Available data frequently do not extend far enough back in time to allow GES to be defined empirically. In such situations, trends-based targets offer a pragmatic solution. A method is proposed for setting indicator-level targets for the number of species-specific metrics required to meet their trends-based metric-level targets. This is based on demonstrating significant departures from the binomial distribution. The procedure is trialled using North Sea demersal fish survey data. Although fisheries management in the North Sea has improved in recent decades, management goals to stop further decline in biodiversity, and to initiate recovery, are yet to be met.