Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

Effect of biochar amendment on the soil-atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gases from an intensive subtropical pasture in northern New South Wales, Australia

We assessed the effect of biochar incorporation into the soil on the soil-atmosphere exchange of the greenhouse gases (GHG) from an intensive subtropical pasture. For this, we measured N2O, CH4 and CO2 emissions with high temporal resolution from April to June 2009 in an existing factorial experiment where cattle feedlot biochar had been applied at 10 t ha-1 in November 2006. Over the whole measurement period, significant emissions of N2O and CO2 were observed, whereas a net uptake of CH4 was measured. N2O emissions were found to be highly episodic with one major emission pulse (up to 502 µg N2O-N m-2 h 1) following heavy rainfall. There was no significant difference in the net flux of GHGs from the biochar amended vs. the control plots. Our results demonstrate that intensively managed subtropical pastures on ferrosols in northern New South Wales of Australia can be a significant source of GHG. Our hypothesis that the application of biochar would lead to a reduction in emissions of GHG from soils was not supported in this field assessment. Additional studies with longer observation periods are needed to clarify the long term effect of biochar amendment on soil microbial processes and the emission of GHGs under field conditions.

Atmospheric deposition as a source of stormwater pollution in Gold Coast, Australia

Atmospheric deposition is one of the most important pollutant pathways for urban stormwater pollution. Atmospheric deposition can be in the form of dry and wet depositions which have distinct characteristics in terms of pollutant types, pollutant sources and influential parameters. This paper discusses the outcomes of a comprehensive study undertaken to identify the characteristics of wet and dry deposition of pollutants. Sample collection was undertaken at eight study sites with distinct characteristics. Four sites were close to road sites with varying traffic characteristics, whilst the other four sites had different land use characteristics. Dry deposition samples were collected for different antecedent dry days and wet deposition samples were collected immediately after rainfall events. The dry deposition was found to increase with the antecedent dry days and consisted of relatively coarser particles (greater than 1 µm) when compared to wet deposition. The wet deposition showed a strong affinity to rainfall depth, but was not related to the antecedent dry period. It was also found that smaller size particles (less than 1 µm) travel much longer distances from the source and deposit mainly with the wet deposition

Fiduciary Duty and the Atmospheric Trust

This book explores the application of concepts of fiduciary duty or public trust in responding to the policy and governance challenges posed by policy problems that extend over multiple terms of government or even, as in the case of climate change, human generations. The volume brings together a range of perspectives including leading international thinkers on questions of fiduciary duty and public trust, Australia's most prominent judicial advocate for the application of fiduciary duty, top law scholars from several major universities, expert commentary from an influential climate policy think-tank and the views of long-serving highly respected past and present parliamentarians. The book presents a detailed examination of the nature and extent of fiduciary duty, looking at the example of Australia and having regard to developments in comparable jurisdictions. It identifies principles that could improve the accountability of political actors for their responses to major problems that may extend over multiple electoral cycles.

Exploratory investigation of atmospheric total suspended particulate matter and heavy metals in urban air

Atmospheric concentration of total suspended particulate matter (TSP) and associated heavy metals are a great concern due to their adverse health impacts and contribution to stormwater pollution. This paper discusses the outcomes of a study which investigated the variation of atmospheric TSP and heavy metal concentrations with traffic and land use characteristics during weekdays and weekends. Data for this study was gathered from fifteen sites at the Gold Coast, Australia using a high volume air sampler. The study detected consistently high TSP concentrations during weekdays compared to weekends. This confirms the significant influence of traffic related sources on TSP loads during weekdays. Both traffic and land use related sources equally contribute to TSP during weekends. Almost all the measured heavy metals showed high concentration on weekdays compared to weekends indicating significant contributions from traffic related emissions. Among the heavy metals, Zn concentration was the highest followed by Pb. It is postulated that re-suspension of previously deposited reserves was the main Pb source. Soil related sources were the main contributors of Mn.

Role of traffic in atmospheric accumulation of heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

Traffic related emissions have been recognised as one of the main sources of air pollutants. In the research study discussed in this paper, variability of atmospheric total suspended particulate matter (TSP), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and heavy metal (HM) concentrations with traffic and land use characteristics during weekdays and weekends were investigated. Data required for the study were collected from a range of sampling sites to ensure a wide mix of traffic and land use characteristics. The analysis undertaken confirmed that zinc has the highest concentration in the atmospheric phase during weekends as well as weekdays. Although the use of leaded gasoline was discontinued a decade ago, lead was the second most commonly detected heavy metal. This is attributed to the association of previously generated lead with roadside soil and re-suspension to the atmosphere. Soil related particles are the primary source of TSP and manganese to the atmosphere. The analysis further revealed that traffic sources are dominant in gas phase PAHs compared to the other sources during weekdays. Land use related sources become important contributors to atmospheric PAHs during weekends when traffic sources are at their minimal levels.

Limestone and speleothem trace element geochemistry as tools for palaeoclimatic reconstruction, Mount Etna region, central-coastal Queensland

This study investigated potential palaeoclimate proxies provided by rare earth element (REE) geochemistry in speleothems and in clay mineralogy of cave sediments. Speleothem and sediment samples were collected from a series of cave fill deposits that occurred with rich vertebrate fossil assemblages in and around Mount Etna National Park, Rockhampton (central coastal Queensland). The fossil deposits range from Plio- Pleistocene to Holocene in age (based on uranium/thorium dating) and appear to represent depositional environments ranging from enclosed rainforest to semi-arid grasslands. Therefore, the Mount Etna cave deposits offer the perfect opportunity to test new palaeoclimate tools as they include deposits that span a known significant climate shift on the basis of independent faunal data. The first section of this study investigates the REE distribution of the host limestone to provide baseline geochemistry for subsequent speleothem investigations. The Devonian Mount Etna Beds were found to be more complex than previous literature had documented. The studied limestone massif is overturned, highly recrystallised in parts and consists of numerous allochthonous blocks with different spatial orientations. Despite the complex geologic history of the Mount Etna Beds, Devonian seawater-like REE patterns were recovered in some parts of the limestone and baseline geochemistry was determined for the bulk limestone for comparison with speleothem REE patterns. The second part of the study focused on REE distribution in the karst system and the palaeoclimatic implications of such records. It was found that REEs have a high affinity for calcite surfaces and that REE distributions in speleothems vary between growth bands much more than along growth bands, thus providing a temporal record that may relate to environmental changes. The morphology of different speleothems (i.e., stalactites, stalagmites, and flowstones) has little bearing on REE distributions provided they are not contaminated with particulate fines. Thus, baseline knowledge developed in the study suggested that speleothems were basically comparable for assessing palaeoclimatically controlled variations in REE distributions. Speleothems from rainforest and semi-arid phases were compared and it was found that there are definable differences in REE distribution that can be attributed to climate. In particular during semiarid phases, total REE concentration decreased, LREE became more depleted, Y/Ho increased, La anomalies were more positive and Ce anomalies were more negative. This may reflect more soil development during rainforest phases and more organic particles and colloids, which are known to transport REEs, in karst waters. However, on a finer temporal scale (i.e. growth bands) within speleothems from the same climate regime, no difference was seen. It is suggested that this may be due to inadequate time for soil development changes on the time frames represented by differences in growth band density. The third part of the study was a reconnaissance investigation focused on mineralogy of clay cave sediments, illite/kaolinite ratios in particular, and the potential palaeoclimatic implications of such records. Although the sample distribution was not optimal, the preliminary results suggest that the illite/kaolinite ratio increased during cold and dry intervals, consistent with decreased chemical weathering during those times. The study provides a basic framework for future studies at differing latitudes to further constrain the parameters of the proxy. The identification of such a proxy recorded in cave sediment has broad implications as clay ratios could potentially provide a basic local climate proxy in the absence of fossil faunas and speleothem material. This study suggests that REEs distributed in speleothems may provide information about water throughput and soil formation, thus providing a potential palaeoclimate proxy. It highlights the importance of understanding the host limestone geochemistry and broadens the distribution and potential number of cave field sites as palaeoclimate information no longer relies solely on the presence of fossil faunas and or speleothems. However, additional research is required to better understand the temporal scales required for the proxies to be recognised.