The Demobilization Process of Paramilitaries in Colombia: Between Politics and Justice

The phenomenon of paramilitarism in Colombia has received an ambiguous treatment, balancing between political and criminal issues; an oscillation that has been intimately linked to the evolution of the Colombian internal conflict. This contribution analyzes the recent negotiations held with paramilitary groups by the administration of Alvaro Uribe Vélez (2002-2010). After a brief account of the dependency path that has determined this historical episode, I propose an assessment of the use of judicial categories by the various actors of the negotiations. The main argument is that those categories –war criminal, political criminal, drug smuggler, etc.– do not depend on the intrinsic nature of an armed actor, but are socially constructed by a conflictive process of material and symbolic struggles. The capacity to categorize private violence, as legitimate or illegitimate, political or criminal, appears as one of the basic manifestations of the state’s action, as well as one of the main conflicts presiding at the rocess of state formation.

La influencia del tabaquismo en la actividad de la artritis reumatoide y progresión de erosiones articulares: Una revision sistemática y meta-análisis.

Objetivos: Sintetizar a través de una revisión sistemática y un meta-análisis los datos disponibles en la literatura sobre el tabaquismo y la artritis reumatoide (AR), teniendo en cuenta su efecto sobre la actividad de la enfermedad y la progresión radiográfica de erosiones. Métodos: Se realizo una revisión sistemática usando las guías PRISMA en las bases de datos de MEDLINE hasta Julio 2013. Los términos de búsqueda incluían tabaquismo, tabaco, humo, cigarrillo y artritis reumatoide. Se consideró incluir cualquier tipo de de estudio realizado con casos de AR, definida por criterios aceptados de clasificación y que incluyeran información que indicara la relación entre tabaquismo y DAS28 o por lo menos un puntaje de erosión. Un tamaño común del efecto se calculó usando un modelo de efectos aleatorios. Resultados: De un total de 2215 artículos obtenidos, 45 cumplían los criterios de inclusión. De estos 27 fueron incluidos en el meta-análisis. Doce contenían información sobre la relación con DAS28 y 17 acerca del efecto en progresión radiográfica. Se encontró una asociación negativa entre tabaquismo y respuesta EULAR (OR: 0.72; 95% CI:0.57-0.91; p=0.005) y Remisión definida por DAS28 (OR:0.78; 95%CI:0.63-0.96; p=0.023). EL puntaje de DAS28 era significativamente mas alto en fumadores actuales (MD:0.29; 95% CI:0.12-0.44;p<0.001) de igual forma el puntaje de erosión era mas alto en fumadores actuales (SMD:0.38;95% CI:0.04-0.72; p=0.028). Los datos para progresión de erosiones eran ambiguos (OR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.72-1,2; p=0.59). Un análisis de sensibilidad confirmo que los resultados no eran sensibles a la restricción de los datos incluidos. El sesgo de publicación fue mínimo. Conclusiones: El tabaquismo se encuentra asociado a una respuesta disminuida a tratamiento (definido por criterios EULAR) y un puntaje de erosión, pero no se logro demostrar una mayor progresión radiográfica en los pacientes fumadores.

Six party talks desafíos en la implementación de la política exterior de China (2003-2013)

Este estudio de caso se centra en los esfuerzos de China por reanudar los Six Party Talks o Diálogos a Seis Bandas que son considerados como la opción más viable para tratar la situación nuclear en la península coreana.

La dimensión transnacional del movimiento feminista marroquí: génesis, desarrollo e impacto social (1980-2008)

Esta monografía busca explicar cómo han incidido el contexto internacional y las relaciones transnacionales en el movimiento feminista de Marruecos. De este modo, este estudio defiende que las Conferencias Mundiales sobre la Mujer de la ONU crearon una estructura de oportunidad política que favoreció el surgimiento y el desarrollo de este movimiento. Asimismo, dicho contexto construyó un espacio para que las activistas feministas marroquíes crearan y se insertaran en Redes de Defensa Transnacional, las cuales contribuyeron a cambiar la condición de la mujer en Marruecos, a través de reformas a los Códigos de Familia y Nacionalidad y el levantamiento de las reservas a la CEDAW. Para esto se hará un estudio interdisciplinario haciendo uso de la teoría de los movimientos sociales y del activismo transnacional. Igualmente, se utilizará una metodología cualitativa, principalmente a través de las herramientas del análisis de contenido y el trabajo de campo de la autora.

The environmental impact of civil conflict : the deforestation effect of paramilitary expansion in Colombia

Despite a growing body of literature on how environmental degradation can fuel civil war, the reverse effect, namely that of conflict on environmental outcomes, is relatively understudied. From a theoretical point of view this effect is ambiguous, with some forces pointing to pressures for environmental degradation and some pointing in the opposite direction. Hence, the overall effect of conflict on the environment is an empirical question. We study this relationship in the case of Colombia. We combine a detailed satellite-based longitudinal dataset on forest cover across municipalities over the period 1990-2010 with a comprehensive panel of conflict-related violent actions by paramilitary militias. We first provide evidence that paramilitary activity significantly reduces the share of forest cover in a panel specification that includes municipal and time fixed effects. Then we confirm these findings by taking advantage of a quasi-experiment that provides us with an exogenous source of variation for the expansion of the paramilitary. Using the distance to the region of Urab´a, the epicenter of such expansion, we instrument paramilitary activity in each cross-section for which data on forest cover is available. As a falsification exercise, we show that the instrument ceases to be relevant after the paramilitaries largely demobilized following peace negotiations with the government. Further, after the demobilization the deforestation effect of the paramilitaries disappears. We explore a number of potential mechanisms that may explain the conflict-driven deforestation, and show evidence suggesting that paramilitary violence generates large outflows of people in order to secure areas for growing illegal crops, exploit mineral resources, and engage in extensive agriculture. In turn, these activities are associated with deforestation.

Unemployment insurance in the presence of an informal sector

We study the effect of UI benefits in a typical developing country where the informal sector is sizeable and persistent. In a partial equilibrium environment, ruling out the macroeconomic consequences of UI benefits, we characterize the stationary equilibrium of an economy where policyholders may be employed in the formal sector, short-run unemployed receiving UI benefits or long-run unemployed without UI benefits. We perform comparative static exercises to understand how UI benefits affect unemployed worker´s effort to secure a formal job, their labor supply in the informal sector and leisure time. Our model reveals that an increase in UI benefits generates two opposing effects for the short-run unemployed. First, since search efforts cannot be monitored it generates moral hazard behaviours that lower effort. Second, it generates an income effect as it reduces the marginal cost of searching for a formal job and increases effort.The overall effect is ambiguous and depends on the relative strength of these two effects. Additionally, we show that an increase in UI benefits increases the efforts of long-run unemployed workers. We provide a simple simulation exercise which suggests that the income effect pointed out is not necessarily of second-order importance in comparison with moral hazard strength. This result softens the widespread opinion, usually based on the microeconomic/partial equilibrium argument that the presence of dual labor markets is an obstacle to providing UI in developing countries.

Essays on International trade and economic growth

At present, we are witnessing globalization as a truly worldwide phenomenon. Trade agreements among differing countries, a reduction in trade costs, the mobility of production factors, the free flow of information and so on are all proof of the present day era of globalization. Countries are trading with one another more and more every day and the effects of international trade on economies represent a central discussion in all economic spheres. In spite of increasing trade around the world and the promotion of globalization by multilateral organisms such as WTO and IMF, the effects of international trade are not yet clear. Economics literature concerning the effects of international trade on economic growth and welfare remains ambiguous in terms of both theoretical models and empirical research. The present thesis tries to contribute to the theoretical debate surrounding the effects of dynamic international trade, focusing in particular on the implications for economic growth, welfare and changes in the preferences of individuals.

Productivity, demand and the home market effect

The causality between international trade and industrialization is still ambiguous. We consider a model of international trade with the Home Market Effect - with differences in income and productivity between sectors and between countries - in order to identify additional channels for determining the effects of international trade on industrialization. Introducing non-homothetic preferences and differences in productivity aids in the interpretation of any apparent paradoxes within international trade, such as the commercial relations between more populated countries like China and India and large economies such as the U.S. Population size, demand composition and productivity levels constitute the three main channels for determining the effects of international trade. Interactions among these channels define the results obtained in terms of industrialization, while welfare levels are always higher in relation to autarky.

Risk, ambiguity, and diversification

Attitudes toward risk influence the decision to diversify among uncertain options. Yet, because in most situations the options are ambiguous, attitudes toward ambiguity may also play an important role. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect of ambiguity on the decision to diversify. I find that diversification is more prevalent and more persistent under ambiguity than under risk. Moreover, excess diversification under ambiguity is driven by participants who stick with a status quo gamble when diversification among gambles is not feasible. This behavioral pattern cannot be accommodated by major theories of choice under ambiguity.

Historia de una película: Las tres ratas (Del Fabulador)

El estreno de la película Las tres ratas, basada en la novela homónima de Alfredo Pareja, se realizó en 1946 en Argentina y, en Ecuador, dos años después. Aunque inicialmente el autor se sintiera muy desencantado con esta adaptación, participó en la recuperación de la misma, y su reestreno en 1989, en un contexto muy distinto. En este año culminaba el proyecto -iniciado en 1981 por Cinemateca Nacional- de acopiar el patrimonio cinematográfico del Ecuador, como memoria del país. En 1989, la institución gestionó la declaratoria del cine ecuatoriano como parte del Patrimonio Cultural del Estado, y la delegación de esa custodia a la misma Cinemateca. Alfredo Pareja tuvo un rol importante en la recuperación, por vía diplomática, de una copia de Las tres ratas, y contribuyó adicionalmente con documentos relativos a varias películas del novelista Demetrio Aguilera Malta. Fue un impulsor del proyecto global, pese a la ambigüedad de sentimientos vinculados con los estrenos de cuarenta años atrás, de lo cual da fe un fragmento de carta de Alfredo Pareja al pintor Galo Galecio, de 1946.

Biopolítica y gran relato nacional: presencia espectral del mundo aborigen en tres novelas de la selva (Estudios)

Escritas durante la primera mitad del siglo XX, Canaima, La vorágine, y Sangama son tres novelas de la selva en las cuales aparece una representación del mundo indígena del Amazonas o del Orinoco. Se ha repetido que se trataba de novelas progresistas, que encerraban una crítica del sistema social de la época, y más particularmente del genocidio acarreado por la explotación del caucho durante el “ciclo da borracha”. Sin embargo estas ficciones nos proporcionan un enfoque ambiguo de la realidad indígena. Una visión impregnada por las mismas concepciones del siglo XIX que favorecieron los excesos, maltratos y masacres que dichas novelas pretenden denunciar. Este ensayo se propone analizar la matriz científica de estas representaciones, insistiendo en el paradigma racialista decimónico, derivado de la teoría evolucionista y de la ideología del progreso. Los indios de las ficciones se desplazan como fantasmas en un universo mágico, embrujado, o infernal que carece de realidad. Este “flor” romántico es la proyección literaria de una estrategia biopolítica que se da en las sociedades de la época: la cuestión gira en torno a la construcción del pueblo nacional. Los “aparecidos” del espacio novelesco son un momento de unas estrategias discursivas más globales: se trata de construir una homegeneidad nacional a partir de una etnicidad ficticia que requiere el rechazo del “otro atrasado”. El espectro es la huella o el testigo de esta violencia fundadora.

Sexual symbolism in the Early Neolithic of the southern Levant: pestles and mortars from WF16

WF16 is a Pre-Pottery Neolithic site in the Southern Levant that has produced an important collection of ground stone artefacts. These include one explicit and one ambiguous representation of a phallus – the latter may be a human head and shoulders. The authors note the visual similarity of certain pestles from WF16 to phalli and suggest that such artefacts and their use may have been imbued with sexual metaphor. As such, the most potent references to sex, reproduction and fertility in the early Neolithic may not be the exotic figures claimed to be ‘Mother Goddesses’ but located in the most mundane of domestic artefacts.

Right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices mediate adaptive decisions under ambiguity by integrating choice utility and outcome evaluation.

The Iowa gambling task (IGT) is one of the most influential behavioral paradigms in reward-related decision making and has been, most notably, associated with ventromedial prefrontal cortex function. However, performance in the IGT relies on a complex set of cognitive subprocesses, in particular integrating information about the outcome of choices into a continuously updated decision strategy under ambiguous conditions. The complexity of the task has made it difficult for neuroimaging studies to disentangle the underlying neurocognitive processes. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in combination with a novel adaptation of the task, which allowed us to examine separately activation associated with the moment of decision or the evaluation of decision outcomes. Importantly, using whole-brain regression analyses with individual performance, in combination with the choice/outcome history of individual subjects, we aimed to identify the neural overlap between areas that are involved in the evaluation of outcomes and in the progressive discrimination of the relative value of available choice options, thus mapping the two fundamental cognitive processes that lead to adaptive decision making. We show that activation in right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex was predictive of adaptive performance, in both discriminating disadvantageous from advantageous decisions and confirming negative decision outcomes. We propose that these two prefrontal areas mediate shifting away from disadvantageous choices through their sensitivity to accumulating negative outcomes. These findings provide functional evidence of the underlying processes by which these prefrontal subregions drive adaptive choice in the task, namely through contingency-sensitive outcome evaluation.

On the evolution of the solar wind between 1 and 5 AU at the time of the Cassini Jupiter flyby: Multispacecraft observations of interplanetary coronal mass ejections including the formation of a merged interaction region

The Cassini flyby of Jupiter occurred at a time near solar maximum. Consequently, the pre-Jupiter data set reveals clear and numerous transient perturbations to the Parker Spiral solar wind structure. Limited plasma data are available at Cassini for this period due to pointing restrictions imposed on the instrument. This renders the identification of the nature of such structures ambiguous, as determinations based on the magnetic field data alone are unreliable. However, a fortuitous alignment of the planets during this encounter allowed us to trace these structures back to those observed previously by the Wind spacecraft near the Earth. Of the phenomena that we are satisfactorily able to trace back to their manifestation at 1 AU, two are identified as being due to interplanetary coronal mass ejections. One event at Cassini is shown to be a merged interaction region, which is formed from the compression of a magnetic cloud by two anomalously fast solar wind streams. The flux-rope structure associated with this magnetic cloud is not as apparent at Cassini and has most likely been compressed and deformed. Confirmation of the validity of the ballistic projections used here is provided by results obtained from a one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic projection of solar wind parameters measured upstream near the Earth. It is found that when the Earth and Cassini are within a few tens of degrees in heliospheric longitude, the results of this one-dimensional model predict the actual conditions measured at 5 AU to an impressive degree. Finally, the validity of the use of such one-dimensional projections in obtaining quasi-solar wind parameters at the outer planets is discussed.

The opening of Plutarch's Life of Themistokles

Plutarch begins the biography by selecting incidents and an epigram that anticipate the basic themes of Themistocles' life--his greatness, sometimes ambiguous, and his benefactions to all of Greece.