Brazilian indexing and inertial inflation: evidence from time-varying estimates of an inflation transfer function

This paper is a theoretica1 and empirica1 study of the re1ationship between indexing po1icy and feedback mechanisms in the inflationary adjustment process in Brazil. The focus of our study is on two policy issues: (1) did the Brazilian system of indexing of interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages make inflation so dependent on its own past values that it created a significant feedback process and inertia in the behaviour of inflation in and (2) was the feedback effect of past inf1ation upon itself so strong that dominated the effect of monetary/fiscal variables upon current inflation? This paper develops a simple model designed to capture several "stylized facts" of Brazi1ian indexing po1icy. Separate ru1es of "backward indexing" for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages, reflecting the evolution of po1icy changes in Brazil, are incorporated in a two-sector model of industrial and agricultural prices. A transfer function derived irom this mode1 shows inflation depending on three factors: (1) past values of inflation, (2) monetary and fiscal variables, and (3) supply- .shock variables. The indexing rules for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages place restrictions on the coefficients of the transfer function. Variations in the policy-determined parameters of the indexing rules imply changes in the coefficients of the transfer function for inflation. One implication of this model, in contrast to previous results derived in analytically simpler models of indexing, is that a higher degree of indexing does not make current inflation more responsive to current monetary shocks. The empirical section of this paper studies the central hypotheses of this model through estimation of the inflation transfer function with time-varying parameters. The results show a systematic non-random variation of the transfer function coefficients closely synchronized with changes in the observed values of the wage-indexing parameters. Non-parametric tests show the variation of the transfer function coefficients to be statistically significant at the time of the changes in wage indexing rules in Brazil. As the degree of indexing increased, the inflation feadback coefficients increased, while the effect of external price and agricultura shocs progressively increased and monetary effects progressively decreased.

Um modelo "time-varying markov-Switching" para crescimento econômico e algoritmo de estimação

Este trabalho elabora um modelo para investigação do padrão de variação do crescimento econômico, entre diferentes países e através do tempo, usando um framework Markov- Switching com matriz de transição variável. O modelo desenvolvido segue a abordagem de Pritchett (2003), explicando a dinâmica do crescimento a partir de uma coleção de diferentes estados – cada qual com seu sub-modelo e padrão de crescimento – através dos quais os países oscilam ao longo do tempo. A matriz de transição entre os diferentes estados é variante no tempo, dependendo de variáveis condicionantes de cada país e a dinâmica de cada estado é linear. Desenvolvemos um método de estimação generalizando o Algoritmo EM de Diebold et al. (1993) e estimamos um modelo-exemplo em painel com a matriz de transição condicionada na qualidade das instituições e no nível de investimento. Encontramos três estados de crescimento: crescimento estável, ‘milagroso’ e estagnação - virtualmente coincidentes com os três primeiros de Jerzmanowski (2006). Os resultados mostram que a qualidade das instituições é um importante determinante do crescimento de longo prazo enquanto o nível de investimento tem papel diferenciado: contribui positivamente em países com boa qualidade de instituições e tem papel pouco relevante para os países com instituições medianas ou piores.

A time-varying markov-switching model for economic growth

This paper investigates economic growth’s pattern of variation across and within countries using a Time-Varying Transition Matrix Markov-Switching Approach. The model developed follows the approach of Pritchett (2003) and explains the dynamics of growth based on a collection of different states, each of which has a sub-model and a growth pattern, by which countries oscillate over time. The transition matrix among the different states varies over time, depending on the conditioning variables of each country, with a linear dynamic for each state. We develop a generalization of the Diebold’s EM Algorithm and estimate an example model in a panel with a transition matrix conditioned on the quality of the institutions and the level of investment. We found three states of growth: stable growth, miraculous growth, and stagnation. The results show that the quality of the institutions is an important determinant of long-term growth, whereas the level of investment has varying roles in that it contributes positively in countries with high-quality institutions but is of little relevance in countries with medium- or poor-quality institutions.

Using consumer search cost and loyalty to explain dispersion in banking fees

Pode-se observar uma considerável dispersão entre os preços que diferentes bancos comerciais no Brasil cobram por um mesmo pacote homogêneo de serviços— dispersão esta que é sustentada ao longo do tempo. Em uma tentativa de replicar esta observação empírica, foi desenvolvido um simples modelo que lança mão do arcabouço da literatura de custos de procura (search costs) e que baseia-se também na lealdade por parte dos consumidores. Em seguida, dados de preços referentes ao setor bancário brasileiro são aplicados ao modelo desenvolvido e alguns exercícios empíricos são então realizados. Esses exercícios permitem que: (i) os custos de procura incorridos pelos consumidores sejam estimados, ao fixar-se os valores dos demais parâmetros e (ii) as correspondentes perdas de peso-morto que surgem como consequência dos custos de procura incorridos pelos consumidores sejam também estimadas. Quando apenas 80% da população é livre para buscar por bancos que cobrem menores tarifas, à taxa de juros mensal de 0,5%, o valor estimado do custo de procura médio incorrido pelos consumidores chega a 1805,80 BRL, sendo a correspondente perda de peso-morto média na ordem de 233,71 BRL por consumidor.

Bias from ignoring price dispersion in demand estimation

Consumers often pay different prices for the same product bought in the same store at the same time. However, the demand estimation literature has ignored that fact using, instead, aggregate measures such as the “list” or average price. In this paper we show that this will lead to biased price coefficients. Furthermore, we perform simple comparative statics simulation exercises for the logit and random coefficient models. In the “list” price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers facing discount prices is higher and when consumers are more unwilling to buy the product so that they almost only do it when facing discount. In the average price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers that have access to discount are similar to the ones that do not have access and when consumers willingness to buy is very dependent on idiosyncratic shocks. Also bias is less problematic in the average price case in markets with a lot of bargain deals, so that prices are as good as individual. We conclude by proposing ways that the econometrician can reduce this bias using different information that he may have available.

Avaliação espectrofotométrica do manchamento de resinas odontológicas contendo nanopartículas

Composite resins have been subjected to structural modifications aiming at improved optical and mechanical properties. The present study consisted in an in vitro evaluation of the staining behavior of two nanohybrid resins (NH1 and NH2), a nanoparticulated resin (NP) and a microhybrid resin (MH). Samples of these materials were prepared and immersed in commonly ingested drinks, i.e., coffee, red wine and acai berry for periods of time varying from 1 to 60 days. Cylindrical samples of each resin were shaped using a metallic die and polymerized during 30 s both on the bottom and top of its disk. All samples were polished and immersed in the staining solutions. After 24 hours, three samples of each resin immersed in each solution were removed and placed in a spectrofotome ter for analysis. To that end, the samples were previously diluted in HCl at 50%. Tukey tests were carried out in the statistical analysis of the results. The results revealed that there was a clear difference in the staining behavior of each material. The nanoparticulated resin did not show better color stability compared to the microhybrid resin. Moreover, all resins stained with time. The degree of staining decreased in the sequence nanoparticulated, microhybrid, nanohybrid MH2 and MH1. Wine was the most aggressive drink followed by coffee and acai berry. SEM and image analysis revealed significant porosity on the surface of MH resin and relatively large pores on a NP sample. The NH2 resin was characterized by homogeneous dispersion of particles and limited porosity. Finally, the NH1 resin depicted the lowest porosity level. The results revealed that staining is likely related to the concentration of inorganic pa rticles and surface porosity

Analysis of the four wave mixing effect (FWM) in a dispersion decreasing fiber (DDF) for a WDM system

We did a numerical investigation of the propagation of short light pulses in the region of 1.55 mu m and the conversion efficiency (CE) for the four wave mixing generation (FWM) of ordinary and dispersion decreasing fibers for use in wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) systems, Our simulations studies three different profiles, linear, hyperbolic. and constant, One conclude that for all the profiles there is decrease of the conversion efficiency with the increase in the channel separation. The hyperbolic profile present a higher efficiency of around 1000 above in magnitude compared with the others profiles at 0.2 nm of channel separation. We calculate the conversion efficiency versus the fiber length for the three profiles. The conversion efficiency for the hyperbolic profile is higher when compared to the constant and linear profiles. The other interesting point of the hyperbolic profile is that the increase of the CE in the beginning of the fiber does not show my oscillation in the CE value (log eta), which was observed for the constant and linear profiles. For all the profiles there is an increase of the conversion efficiency with the increase of the pump power. The compression factor C-i for the generated FWM signal at omega(3) was measured along the DDF's and the constant profile fibers. One can conclude that with the use of decreasing dispersion profile (DDF) fibers one can have a control of the (CE) conversion efficiency and the compression factor of the four wave mixing (FWM) generation in WDM systems. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rheological Properties of a Sodium Bentonite and Lactose Aqueous Dispersion

Aim of this paper is show the viscosity measure of a sodium bentonite-water-lactose mixture and your rheological behaviour. This analysis showed the formation of tridimensional structure type and formation of stratified silicate/lactose, this occurred due to different concentrations of organic products into mixture and due to a difference of rotation during viscosity measument. Formation of networks is a consequence of the attraction between the silicate layers in water-lactose mixture. In the present work aqueous solutions of lactose with concentration of 7%, 5%, 3%, 1% and 0% (wt %) were used.

Dynamics and Heterogeneity of Pb(II) Binding by SiO2 Nanoparticles in an Aqueous Dispersion

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effects of nitrous oxide on IOP and pupillary diameter in dogs anesthetized with varying concentrations of desflurane

Objective The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effects of nitrous oxide on TOP and pupillary diameter (PD) of dogs anesthetized with varying desflurane concentrations.Animals studied Twenty adult Mongrel dogs were used.Methods They were anesthetized with propofol (10 mg/kg, IV) and maintained with varying concentrations of desflurane (1.6, 1.4, and 1.2 MAC diluted in 100% oxygen (G1) or in 70% nitrous oxide and 30% oxygen (G2) (30 mL/kg/min). TOP was measured by applanation tonometry and horizontal PD was taken with a caliper adjacent to the cornea. Mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR), and end-tidal CO, (etCO(2)) were also measured. All parameters were measured at TO, T30, T45, and T60 time points. One-way repeated measures ANOVA and the t-test were used to assess statistical differences (P < 0.05).Results T30, T45, and T60 TOP measures were Within normal limits for both groups and TOP did not differ between groups at any time. There was a significant decrease in PD in G I between TO and T30, T45 and T60, and also between T30 and T60. PD did not differ between groups. All vital parameters were within normal limits throughout anesthesia.Conclusions Administration of nitrous oxide with desflurane results in maintenance of normal TOP and prevents a decrease in horizontal PD during anesthesia. Therefore, this may be a suitable protocol in dogs undergoing intraocular surgeries that require mydriasis and maintenance of normal TOP.

Dispersion of Seeds of Tree Species by the Leaf-Cutting Ant Acromyrmex subterraneus molestans (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in Vicosa, Minas Gerais State, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Selection of surfactant compounds to enhance the dispersion of Beauveria bassiana

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Synthesis and physical properties of lipid-based poly(ester-urethane)s, I: Effect of varying polyester segment length

Four aliphatic thermoplastic poly(ester-urethane)s (PEUs) with similar molecular weights but varying polyesters molecular weight (534-1488 g/mol) were prepared from polyester diols, obtained by melt condensation of Azelaic acid and 1,9-Nonanediol, and 1,7-heptamethylene di-isocyanate (HPMDI) all sourced from vegetable oil feedstock. The thermal, and mechanical properties, and crystal structure of PEUs were investigated using DSC, TGA, DMA, tensile analysis and WAXD. For sufficiently long polyester chain, WAXD data indicated no hydrogen bonds polyethylene (PE)-like crystalline packing and for short polyester chains, small crystal domains with significant H-bonded polyamide (PA)-like packing. Crystallinity decreased with decreasing polyester molecular weights. The polymorphism of PEUs and consequently their melting characteristics were found to be largely controlled by polyester segment length. TGA of the PEUs indicated improved thermal stability with decreasing polyester chain length, suggesting a stabilization effect by urethane groups. Mechanical properties investigated by DMA and tensile analysis were found to scale predictably with the overall crystallinity of PEUs. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Obtenção de compósitos cerâmicos reforçados com carbetos refratários a partir de precursores poliméricos

In this work, were produced ceramic matrix composites based in SiCxOy e Al2O3 reinforced with NbC, by hydrosilylation reaction between D4Vi and poly(methylhydrosiloxane) mixtured with Al2O3 as inert filler, Nb and Al as reactive filler. After the mixture and compactation at 80ºC (warm pressing), the samples were pyrolised at 1200 and 1400ºC and infiltred with ICZ and LZSA respectively, and thermically, physical and structurally characterized by X-ray diffraction, density and porosity, flexural mechanical strength and fracture surface by scanning electron microscopy. The yield ceramic obtained after pyrolysis for studied composition at 1200ºC was 95%. The obtained phases had been identified as being Al3Nb, NbSi2 and NbC. The composite material presented apparent porosity varying of 15 up to 32% and mechanical flexural strenght of 32 up to 37,5MPa. After the fracture surface analysis, were observed a phases homogeneous dispersion, with some domains of amorphous and crystalline aspect. The samples that were submitted the infiltration cycle presented a layer next the surface with reduced pores number in relation to the total volume