Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

I have faith in my thing, you know what I mean? Mixed method elements on individual investments on religious markets.

In contemporary society, religious signification and secular systems mix and influence each other. Holistic conceptions of a world in which man is integrated harmoniously with nature meet representations of a world run by an immanent God. On the market of the various systems, the individual goes from one system to another, following his immediate needs and expectations without necessarily leaving any marks in a meaningful long term system. This article presents the first results of an ongoing research in Switzerland on contemporary religion focusing on (new) paths of socialization of modern that individuals and the various (non-) belief systems that they simultaneously develop

Image and value of product brand in industrial markets: Case Stora Enso Consumer Packaging Boards

TUTKIMUKSEN TAVOITTEET Tutkielman tavoitteena oli luoda ensin yleiskäsitys tuotemerkkimarkkinoinnin roolista teollisilla markkinoilla, sekä suhdemarkkinoinnin merkityksestä teollisessa merkkituotemarkkinoinnissa. Toisena oleellisena tavoitteena oli kuvata teoreettisesti merkkituoteidentiteetin rakenne teollisessa yrityksessä ja sen vaikutukset myyntihenkilöstöön, ja lisäksi haluttiin tutkia tuotemerkkien lisäarvoa sekä asiakkaalle että myyjälle. Identiteetti ja sen vaikutukset, erityisesti imago haluttiin tutkia myös empiirisesti. LÄHDEAINEISTO JA TUTKIMUSMENETELMÄT Tämän tutkielman teoreettinen osuus perustuu kirjallisuuteen, akateemisiin julkaisuihin ja aikaisempiin tutkimuksiin; keskittyen merkkituotteiden markkinointiin, identiteettiin ja imagoon, sekä suhdemarkkinointiin osana merkkituotemarkkinointia. Tutkimuksen lähestymistapa on kuvaileva eli deskriptiivinen ja sekä kvalitatiivinen että kvantitatiivinen. Tutkimus on tapaustutkimus, jossa caseyritykseksi valittiin kansainvälinen pakkauskartonki-teollisuuden yritys. Empiirisen osuuden toteuttamiseen käytettiin www-pohjaista surveytä, jonka avulla tietoja kerättiin myyntihenkilöstöltä case-yrityksessä. Lisäksi empiiristä osuutta laajennettiin tutkimalla sekundäärilähteitä kuten yrityksen sisäisiä kirjallisia dokumentteja ja tutkimuksia. TULOKSET. Teoreettisen ja empiirisen tutkimuksen tuloksena luotiin malli jota voidaan hyödyntää merkkituotemarkkinoinnin päätöksenteon tukena pakkauskartonki-teollisuudessa. Teollisen brandinhallinnan tulee keskittyä erityisesti asiakas-suhteiden brandaukseen – tätä voisi kutsua teolliseksi suhdebrandaukseksi. Tuote-elementit ja –arvot, differointi ja positiointi, sisäinen yrityskuva ja viestintä ovat teollisen brandi-identiteetin peruskiviä, jotka luovat brandi-imagon. Case-yrityksen myyntihenkilöstön tuote- ja yritysmielikuvat osoittautuivat kokonaisuudessaan hyviksi. Paras imago on CKB tuotteilla, kun taas heikoin on WLC tuotteilla. Teolliset brandit voivat luoda monenlaisia lisäarvoja sekä asiakas- että myyjäyritykselle.

Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets

This paper exploits the term structure of interest rates to develop testable economic restrictions on the joint process of long-term interest rates and inflation when the latter is subject to a targeting policy by the Central Bank. Two competing models that econometrically describe agents’ inferences about inflation targets are developed and shown to generate distinct predictions on the behavior of interest rates. In an empirical application to the Canadian inflation target zone, results indicate that agents perceive the band to be substantially narrower than officially announced and asymmetric around the stated mid-point. The latter result (i) suggests that the monetary authority attaches different weights to positive and negative deviations from the central target, and (ii) challenges on empirical grounds the assumption, frequently made in the literature, that the policy maker’s loss function is symmetric (usually a quadratic function) around a desired inflation value.

Jumps in the Volatility of Financial Markets.

Recent work suggests that the conditional variance of financial returns may exhibit sudden jumps. This paper extends a non-parametric procedure to detect discontinuities in otherwise continuous functions of a random variable developed by Delgado and Hidalgo (1996) to higher conditional moments, in particular the conditional variance. Simulation results show that the procedure provides reasonable estimates of the number and location of jumps. This procedure detects several jumps in the conditional variance of daily returns on the S&P 500 index.

In Search of Advice for Physicians in Entry-Level Medical Markets

We consider entry-level medical markets for physicians in the United Kingdom. These markets experienced failures which led to the adoption of centralized market mechanisms in the 1960's. However, different regions introduced different centralized mechanisms. We advise physicians who do not have detailed information about the rank-order lists submitted by the other participants. We demonstrate that in each of these markets in a low information environment it is not beneficial to reverse the true ranking of any two acceptable hospital positions. We further show that (i) in the Edinburgh 1967 market, ranking unacceptable matches as acceptable is not profitable for any participant and (ii) in any other British entry-level medical market, it is possible that only strategies which rank unacceptable positions as acceptable are optimal for a physician.

Matching Markets under (In)complete Information

We are the first to introduce incomplete information to centralized many-to-one matching markets such as those to entry-level labor markets or college admissions. This is important because in real life markets (i) any agent is uncertain about the other agents' true preferences and (ii) most entry-level matching is many-to-one (and not one-to-one). We show that for stable (matching) mechanisms there is a strong and surprising link between Nash equilibria under complete information and Bayesian Nash equilibria under incomplete information. That is,given a common belief, a strategy profile is a Bayesian Nash equilibrium under incomplete information in a stable mechanism if and only if, for any true profile in the support of the common belief, the submitted profile is a Nash equilibrium under complete information at the true profile in the direct preference revelation game induced by the stable mechanism. This result may help to explain the success of stable mechanisms in these markets.

Impact of Openness to Trade on Capital Formation in Developed and Emerging Markets: a Comparative Study.

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ITEM : An Integrated Transport Economy Model - Price Elasticities of Freight Transport Demand in Canada : Three Canadian Markets and Four Commodities.

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The role of financial markets in the stabilization and reconstruction of Lebanon.

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Top trading with fixed tie-breaking in markets with indivisible goods

We study markets with indivisible goods where monetary compensations are not possible. Each individual is endowed with an object and a preference relation over all objects. When preferences are strict, Gale's top trading cycle algorithm finds the unique core allocation. When preferences are not necessarily strict, we use an exogenous profile of tie-breakers to resolve any ties in individuals' preferences and apply Gale's top trading cycle algorithm for the resulting profile of strict preferences. We provide a foundation of these simple extensions of Gale's top trading cycle algorithm from strict preferences to weak preferences. We show that Gale's top trading cycle algorithm with fixed tie-breaking is characterized by individual rationality, strategy-proofness, weak efficiency, non-bossiness, and consistency. Our result supports the common practice in applications to break ties in weak preferences using some fixed exogenous criteria and then to use a 'good and simple' rule for the resulting strict preferences. This reinforces the market-based approach even in the presence of indifferences because always competitive allocations are chosen.