893 resultados para Two-stage MCMC method


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The gold mineralization of the Hutti Mine is hosted by nine parallel, N - S trending, steeply dipping, 2 - 10 m wide shear zones, that transect Archaean amphibolites. The shear zones were formed after peak metamorphism during retrograde ductile D, shearing in the lower amphibolite facies. They were reactivated in the lower to mid greenschist facies by brittle-ductile D-3 shearing and intense quartz veining. The development of a S-2-S-3 crenulation cleavage facilitates the discrimination between the two deformation events and contemporaneous alteration and gold mineralization. Ductile D, shearing is associated with a pervasively developed distal chlorite - sed cite alteration assemblage in the outer parts of the shear zones and the proximal biotite-plagioclase alteration in the center of the shear zones. D3 is characterized by development of the inner chlorite-K-feldspar alteration, which forms a centimeter-scale alteration halo surrounding the laminated quartz veins and replaces earlier biotite along S-3. The average size of the laminated vein systems is 30-50 m along strike as well as down-dip and 2-6 m in width. Mass balance calculations suggest strong metasomatic changes for the proximal biotite-plagioclase alteration yielding mass and volume increase of ca. 16% and 12%, respectively. The calculated mass and volume changes of the distal chlorite-sericite alteration (ca. 11%, ca. 8%) are lower. The decrease in 6180 values of the whole rock from around 7.5 parts per thousand for the host rocks to 6-7 parts per thousand for the distal chlorite-sericite and the proximal biotite-plagioclase alteration and around 5 parts per thousand for the inner chlorite-K-feldspar alteration suggests hydrothermal alteration during two-stage deformation and fluid flow. The ductile D-2 deformation in the lower amphibolite facies has provided grain scale porosities by microfracturing. The pervasive, steady-state fluid flow resulted in a disseminated style of gold-sulfide mineralization and a penetrative alteration of the host rocks. Alternating ductile and brittle D3 deformation during lower to mid greenschist facies conditions followed the fault-valve process. Ductile creep in the shear zones resulted in a low permeability environment leading to fluid pressure build-up. Strongly episodic fluid advection and mass transfer was controlled by repeated seismic fracturing during the formation of laminated quartz(-gold) veins. The limitation of quartz veins to the extent of earlier shear zones indicate the importance of preexisting anisotropies for fault-valve action and economic gold mineralization. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Depuis le séminaire H. Cartan de 1954-55, il est bien connu que l'on peut trouver des éléments de torsion arbitrairement grande dans l'homologie entière des espaces d'Eilenberg-MacLane K(G,n) où G est un groupe abélien non trivial et n>1. L'objectif majeur de ce travail est d'étendre ce résultat à des H-espaces possédant plus d'un groupe d'homotopie non trivial. Dans le but de contrôler précisément le résultat de H. Cartan, on commence par étudier la dualité entre l'homologie et la cohomologie des espaces d'Eilenberg-MacLane 2-locaux de type fini. On parvient ainsi à raffiner quelques résultats qui découlent des calculs de H. Cartan. Le résultat principal de ce travail peut être formulé comme suit. Soit X un H-espace ne possédant que deux groupes d'homotopie non triviaux, tous deux finis et de 2-torsion. Alors X n'admet pas d'exposant pour son groupe gradué d'homologie entière réduite. On construit une large classe d'espaces pour laquelle ce résultat n'est qu'une conséquence d'une caractéristique topologique, à savoir l'existence d'un rétract faible X K(G,n) pour un certain groupe abélien G et n>1. On généralise également notre résultat principal à des espaces plus compliqués en utilisant la suite spectrale d'Eilenberg-Moore ainsi que des méthodes analytiques faisant apparaître les nombres de Betti et leur comportement asymptotique. Finalement, on conjecture que les espaces qui ne possédent qu'un nombre fini de groupes d'homotopie non triviaux n'admettent pas d'exposant homologique. Ce travail contient par ailleurs la présentation de la « machine d'Eilenberg-MacLane », un programme C++ conçu pour calculer explicitement les groupes d'homologie entière des espaces d'Eilenberg-MacLane. <br/><br/>By the work of H. Cartan, it is well known that one can find elements of arbitrarilly high torsion in the integral (co)homology groups of an Eilenberg-MacLane space K(G,n), where G is a non-trivial abelian group and n>1. The main goal of this work is to extend this result to H-spaces having more than one non-trivial homotopy groups. In order to have an accurate hold on H. Cartan's result, we start by studying the duality between homology and cohomology of 2-local Eilenberg-MacLane spaces of finite type. This leads us to some improvements of H. Cartan's methods in this particular case. Our main result can be stated as follows. Let X be an H-space with two non-vanishing finite 2-torsion homotopy groups. Then X does not admit any exponent for its reduced integral graded (co)homology group. We construct a wide class of examples for which this result is a simple consequence of a topological feature, namely the existence of a weak retract X K(G,n) for some abelian group G and n>1. We also generalize our main result to more complicated stable two stage Postnikov systems, using the Eilenberg-Moore spectral sequence and analytic methods involving Betti numbers and their asymptotic behaviour. Finally, we investigate some guesses on the non-existence of homology exponents for finite Postnikov towers. We conjecture that Postnikov pieces do not admit any (co)homology exponent. This work also includes the presentation of the "Eilenberg-MacLane machine", a C++ program designed to compute explicitely all integral homology groups of Eilenberg-MacLane spaces. <br/><br/>Il est toujours difficile pour un mathématicien de parler de son travail. La difficulté réside dans le fait que les objets qu'il étudie sont abstraits. On rencontre assez rarement un espace vectoriel, une catégorie abélienne ou une transformée de Laplace au coin de la rue ! Cependant, même si les objets mathématiques sont difficiles à cerner pour un non-mathématicien, les méthodes pour les étudier sont essentiellement les mêmes que celles utilisées dans les autres disciplines scientifiques. On décortique les objets complexes en composantes plus simples à étudier. On dresse la liste des propriétés des objets mathématiques, puis on les classe en formant des familles d'objets partageant un caractère commun. On cherche des façons différentes, mais équivalentes, de formuler un problème. Etc. Mon travail concerne le domaine mathématique de la topologie algébrique. Le but ultime de cette discipline est de parvenir à classifier tous les espaces topologiques en faisant usage de l'algèbre. Cette activité est comparable à celle d'un ornithologue (topologue) qui étudierait les oiseaux (les espaces topologiques) par exemple à l'aide de jumelles (l'algèbre). S'il voit un oiseau de petite taille, arboricole, chanteur et bâtisseur de nids, pourvu de pattes à quatre doigts, dont trois en avant et un, muni d'une forte griffe, en arrière, alors il en déduira à coup sûr que c'est un passereau. Il lui restera encore à déterminer si c'est un moineau, un merle ou un rossignol. Considérons ci-dessous quelques exemples d'espaces topologiques: a) un cube creux, b) une sphère et c) un tore creux (c.-à-d. une chambre à air). a) b) c) Si toute personne normalement constituée perçoit ici trois figures différentes, le topologue, lui, n'en voit que deux ! De son point de vue, le cube et la sphère ne sont pas différents puisque ils sont homéomorphes: on peut transformer l'un en l'autre de façon continue (il suffirait de souffler dans le cube pour obtenir la sphère). Par contre, la sphère et le tore ne sont pas homéomorphes: triturez la sphère de toutes les façons (sans la déchirer), jamais vous n'obtiendrez le tore. Il existe un infinité d'espaces topologiques et, contrairement à ce que l'on serait naïvement tenté de croire, déterminer si deux d'entre eux sont homéomorphes est très difficile en général. Pour essayer de résoudre ce problème, les topologues ont eu l'idée de faire intervenir l'algèbre dans leurs raisonnements. Ce fut la naissance de la théorie de l'homotopie. Il s'agit, suivant une recette bien particulière, d'associer à tout espace topologique une infinité de ce que les algébristes appellent des groupes. Les groupes ainsi obtenus sont appelés groupes d'homotopie de l'espace topologique. Les mathématiciens ont commencé par montrer que deux espaces topologiques qui sont homéomorphes (par exemple le cube et la sphère) ont les même groupes d'homotopie. On parle alors d'invariants (les groupes d'homotopie sont bien invariants relativement à des espaces topologiques qui sont homéomorphes). Par conséquent, deux espaces topologiques qui n'ont pas les mêmes groupes d'homotopie ne peuvent en aucun cas être homéomorphes. C'est là un excellent moyen de classer les espaces topologiques (pensez à l'ornithologue qui observe les pattes des oiseaux pour déterminer s'il a affaire à un passereau ou non). Mon travail porte sur les espaces topologiques qui n'ont qu'un nombre fini de groupes d'homotopie non nuls. De tels espaces sont appelés des tours de Postnikov finies. On y étudie leurs groupes de cohomologie entière, une autre famille d'invariants, à l'instar des groupes d'homotopie. On mesure d'une certaine manière la taille d'un groupe de cohomologie à l'aide de la notion d'exposant; ainsi, un groupe de cohomologie possédant un exposant est relativement petit. L'un des résultats principaux de ce travail porte sur une étude de la taille des groupes de cohomologie des tours de Postnikov finies. Il s'agit du théorème suivant: un H-espace topologique 1-connexe 2-local et de type fini qui ne possède qu'un ou deux groupes d'homotopie non nuls n'a pas d'exposant pour son groupe gradué de cohomologie entière réduite. S'il fallait interpréter qualitativement ce résultat, on pourrait dire que plus un espace est petit du point de vue de la cohomologie (c.-à-d. s'il possède un exposant cohomologique), plus il est intéressant du point de vue de l'homotopie (c.-à-d. il aura plus de deux groupes d'homotopie non nuls). Il ressort de mon travail que de tels espaces sont très intéressants dans le sens où ils peuvent avoir une infinité de groupes d'homotopie non nuls. Jean-Pierre Serre, médaillé Fields en 1954, a montré que toutes les sphères de dimension >1 ont une infinité de groupes d'homotopie non nuls. Des espaces avec un exposant cohomologique aux sphères, il n'y a qu'un pas à franchir...

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Tässä työssä tutkittiin erilaisten sisäisten donorien vaikutusta polypropeenin ominaisuuksiin käytettäessä Ziegler-Natta-katalyyttiä, joka valmistettiin Borealiksen aiemmin kehittämällä kaksifaasimenetelmällä. Tällä uudella menetelmällä katalyytti voidaan valmistaa ilman lisättyä sisäistä donoria ja kantajaa. Katalyyttihiukkaset saadaan kaksifaasisysteemin ansiosta muodoltaan pyöreiksi. Työn kokeellisessa osassa valmistettiin erilaisia Mg-komplekseja, jossa sisäinen donori muodostuu in-situ alkoholin ja karboksyylihappokloridin reagoidessa keskenään. Katalyyttisynteesissä Mg-kompleksi reagoi TiCl4:n kanssa. Saatujen katalyyttien ominaisuuksia testattiin polymeroimalla niillä propeenia 70 °C:ssa tunnin ajan. Polymeerien ominaisuuksia tutkittiin useiden eri karakterisointimenetelmien avulla. Lisäksi tutkittiin mahdollisuutta valmistaa katalyytti, joka ei sisältäisi ftalaattia. Työssä havaittiin, että katalyytin valmistusmenetelmä on käyttökelpoinen myös muilla sisäisillä donoreilla kuin referenssinä käytetyllä DOP:lla. Kaksiliuosfaasi-systeemi saatiin aikaan myös kahdella muulla työssä tutkitulla sisäisellä donorilla. Lisäksi faasitasapainokokeissa kahden liuosfaasin systeemi saatiin aikaan sisäisellä donorilla, joka ei sisältänyt ftalaattia. Kyseisellä katalyytillä havaittiin olevan muista katalyyteistä poikkeavia ominaisuuksia. Esimerkiksi se antoi matalamman isotaktisuuden kuin referenssikatalyytti ja se saattaisikin soveltua matalan isotaktisuuden pehmeille tuotteille. Työssä kokeiltiin yhdellä uudella katalyytillä myös eteenin polymerointia, sillä katalyytin donoripitoisuus oli hyvin matala. Katalyytin aktiivisuus eteenipolymeroinnissa oli varsin hyvä.

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Työssä tutkittiin UPM-Kymmene Oyj Kaukaan kemiallisella tehtaalla käytössä olevia steroliprosesseja. Steroleita erotetaan sulfaattiselluloosan keitossa syntyvasta suovasta uutetusta neutraaliainejakeesta. Neutraaliaine sisältää β-sitosterolia, α-sitosterolia ja kampesterolia yhteensä noin 20 p-%. Primal-laadun valmistus perustuu neste-nesteuuttoon sekä kiteytykseen ja Ultra-laadun kaksivaiheiseen suorakiteytykseen. Työn kirjallisessa osassa perehdytään sterolien kemiaan sekä neste-nesteuuttoon ja kiteytykseen erotus- ja puhdistusmenetelminä. Laboratoriokokeissa tutkittiin kolmen eri alkoholin ja kahden eri hiilivetyliuottimen soveltuvuutta Primal-sitosterolin uuttoon ja kiteytykseen. Lisaksi tutkittiin liuotinseoksen vesipitoisuuden vaikutusta. Tavoitteena oli löytää uuttoliuottimien koostumus, jolla uuton sterolisaanto ja sterolikiteiden puhtaus olisivat mahdollisimman korkeat. Havaittiin, että uuton sterolisaanto voitiin maksimoida pitämällä uuttoalkoholin vesipitoisuus niin alhaisena, että faasit juuri ja juuri erottuvat toisistaan. Laboratoriokokeissa saatujen tulosten perusteella tehtiin tehdasmittakaavan koeajo Primal-sitosterolin valmistuslaitteistolla UPM-Kymmene Oyj Kaukaan kemiallisella tehtaalla. Talloin uutossa saavutettiin noin 50 %:n sterolisaanto. Ultra-sitosterolin laboratoriomittakaavaisissa kiteytyskokeissa vertailtiin neljän eri alkoholin ja kahden muun orgaanisen liuottimen soveltuvuutta kiteytysliuoksen komponenteiksi. Lisaksi tutkittiin vesipitoisuuden liuotinseoksen vaikutusta. Tarkoituksena oli löytää se liuotinkoostumus, jolla sterolikiteiden saanto ja puhtaus olisivat mahdollisimman korkeat. Sopivalla kiteytysliuoksen koostumuksella saavutettiin melko hyvä sterolisaanto ja lähes 98 %:n puhtaus.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is (1) to measure school technical efficiency and (2) to identify the determinants of primary school performance. Design/methodology/approach A two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) of school efficiency is conducted. At the first stage, DEA is employed to calculate an individual efficiency score for each school. At the second stage, efficiency is regressed on school characteristics and environmental variables. Findings The mean technical efficiency of schools in the State of Geneva is equal to 93%. By improving the operation of schools, 7% (100 - 93) of inputs could be saved, representing 17'744'656.2 Swiss francs in 2010. School efficiency is negatively influenced by (1) operations being held on multiple sites, (2) the proportion of disadvantaged pupils enrolled at the school and (3) the provision of special education, but positively influenced by school size (captured by the number of pupils). Practical implications Technically, the determinants of school efficiency are outside of the control of the headteachers. However, it is still possible to either boost the positive impact or curb the negative impact. Potential actions are discussed. Originality/value Unlike most similar studies, the model in this study is tested for multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity and endogeneity. It is therefore robust. Moreover, one explanatory variable of school efficiency (operations being held on multiple sites) is a truly original variable as it has never been tested so far.

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This paper examines the role of assortative mating in the intergenerational economic mobility in Spain. Sons and daughters usually marry individuals with similar characteristics, which may lower mobility. Our empirical strategy employs the Two-sample two-stage least squares estimator to estimate the intergenerational income elasticity in absence of data for two generations not residing in the same household. Our findings suggest that assortative mating plays an important role in the intergenerational transmission process. On average about 50 per 100 of the covariance between parents’ income and child family’s incomecan be accounted for by the person the child is married to

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Infection is one of the most serious complications after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The current incidence of prosthetic knee infection is 1-3%, depending on the series(.) For treatment and control to be more cost effective, multidisciplinary groups made up of professionals from different specialities who can work together to eradicate these kinds of infections need to be assembled. About the microbiology, Staphylococcus aureus and coagulase-negative staphylococcus were among the most frequent microorganisms involved (74%). Anamnesis and clinical examination are of primary importance in order to determine whether the problem may point to a possible acute septic complication. The first diagnosis may then be supported by increased CRP and ESR levels. The surgical treatment for a chronic prosthetic knee infection has been perfectly defined and standardized, and consists in a two-stage implant revision process. In contrast, the treatment for acute prosthetic knee infection is currently under debate. Considering the different surgical techniques that already exist, surgical debridement with conservation of the prosthesis and polythene revision appears to be an attractive option for both surgeon and patient, as it is less aggressive than the two-stage revision process and has lower initial costs. The different results obtained from this technique, along with prognosis factors and conclusions to keep in mind when it is indicated for an acute prosthetic infection, whether post-operative or haematogenous, will be analysed by the authors.

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The chemical kinetics of sugarcane filter cake (FC) organic matter degradation at rates (0, 40, 80, and 120 t ha-1) in non-contaminated and different degrees of cadmium-contaminated Oxisol (0.19, 28, 56, 112 and 200 mg Cd kg-1) and DTPA-extractable Cd was studied. FC degradation was determined by quantifying CO2 emitted from soil samples during 72 days of incubation. DTPA-extractable Cd was performed after the incubation period. FC degradation was described by a two-stage equation of chemical kinetics. FC degradation rates were between 15 and 33%. Total CO2 emitted from FC declined with increasing degree in Cd-contamination and the DTPA-extractable Cd declined with FC rates.

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This work presents models and methods that have been used in producing forecasts of population growth. The work is intended to emphasize the reliability bounds of the model forecasts. Leslie model and various versions of logistic population models are presented. References to literature and several studies are given. A lot of relevant methodology has been developed in biological sciences. The Leslie modelling approach involves the use of current trends in mortality,fertility, migration and emigration. The model treats population divided in age groups and the model is given as a recursive system. Other group of models is based on straightforward extrapolation of census data. Trajectories of simple exponential growth function and logistic models are used to produce the forecast. The work presents the basics of Leslie type modelling and the logistic models, including multi- parameter logistic functions. The latter model is also analysed from model reliability point of view. Bayesian approach and MCMC method are used to create error bounds of the model predictions.

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A small carbonatite dyke swarm has been identified at Naantali, southwest Finland. Several swarms of shoshonitic lamprophyres are also known along the Archean-Proterozoic boundary in eastern Finland and northwest Russia. These intrusions, along with the carbonatite intrusion at Halpanen, eastern Finland, represent a stage of widespread low-volume mantle-sourced alkaline magmatism in the Svecofennian Domain. Using trace element and isotope geochemistry coupled with precise geochronology from these rocks, a model is presented for the Proterozoic metasomatic evolution of the Fennoscandian subcontinental lithospheric mantle. At ~2.2-2.06 Ga, increased biological production in shallow seas linked to continental rifting, resulted in increased burial rates of organic carbon. Subduction between ~1.93-1.88 Ga returned organic carbon-enriched sediments of mixed Archean and Proterozoic provenance to the mantle. Dehydration reactions supplied water to the mantle wedge, driving arc volcanism, while mica, amphibole and carbonate were brought deeper into the mantle with the subducting slab. The cold subducted slab was heated conductively from the surrounding warm mantle, while pressures continued to gradually increase as a result of crustal thickening. The sediments began to melt in a two stage process, first producing a hydrous alkaline silicate melt, which infiltrated the mantle wedge and crystallised as metasomatic veins. At higher temperatures, carbonatite melt was produced, which preferentially infiltrated the pre-existing metasomatic vein network. At the onset of post-collisional extension, deep fault structures formed, providing conduits for mantle melts to reach the upper crust. Low-volume partial melting of the enriched mantle at depths of at least 110 km led to the formation of first carbonatitic magma and subsequently lamprophyric magma. Carbonatite was emplaced in the upper crust at Naantali at 1795.7 ± 6.8 Ma; lamprophyres along the Archean-Proterozoic boundary were emplaced between 1790.1 ± 3.3 Ma and 1781 ± 20 Ma.

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New luminometric particle-based methods were developed to quantify protein and to count cells. The developed methods rely on the interaction of the sample with nano- or microparticles and different principles of detection. In fluorescence quenching, timeresolved luminescence resonance energy transfer (TR-LRET), and two-photon excitation fluorescence (TPX) methods, the sample prevents the adsorption of labeled protein to the particles. Depending on the system, the addition of the analyte increases or decreases the luminescence. In the dissociation method, the adsorbed protein protects the Eu(III) chelate on the surface of the particles from dissociation at a low pH. The experimental setups are user-friendly and rapid and do not require hazardous test compounds and elevated temperatures. The sensitivity of the quantification of protein (from 40 to 500 pg bovine serum albumin in a sample) was 20-500-fold better than in most sensitive commercial methods. The quenching method exhibited low protein-to-protein variability and the dissociation method insensitivity to the assay contaminants commonly found in biological samples. Less than ten eukaryotic cells were detected and quantified with all the developed methods under optimized assay conditions. Furthermore, two applications, the method for detection of the aggregation of protein and the cell viability test, were developed by utilizing the TR-LRET method. The detection of the aggregation of protein was allowed at a more than 10,000 times lower concentration, 30 μg/L, compared to the known methods of UV240 absorbance and dynamic light scattering. The TR-LRET method was combined with a nucleic acid assay with cell-impermeable dye to measure the percentage of dead cells in a single tube test with cell counts below 1000 cells/tube.

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In this work it was evaluated the performance of two systems of swine wastewater treatment consisting of two-stage upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactors, with and without post-treatment in sequencing batch reactor (SBR), fed continuously, with aerobic phase. The UASB reactors in the first stage had 908 L in the sets I and II, and in the second stage 350 and 188 L, respectively. In the set II the post-treatment was performed in a SBR of 3,000 L. The hydraulic detention times in the anaerobic treatment systems were 100, 75 and 58 h in the set I; 87, 65 and 51 h in the set II; and 240 and 180 h in the SBR. The volumetric organic load applied in the first stage UASB reactors ranged from 6.9 to 12.6 g total COD (L d)-1 in the set I and 7.5 to 9.8 g total COD (L d)-1 in the set II. The average removal efficiencies of total COD, total phosphorus (Ptotal), and Kjeldahl and organic nitrogen (KN and Norg) in the anaerobic treatment systems were similar and reached maximum values of 97%, 64%, 68%, and 98%. In the SBR, the removal efficiencies of total COD and thermotolerant coliforms were up to 62 and 92% resulting, respectively, in effluent concentrations of 135 mg L-1 and 2x10(4)MPN (100 mL)-1. For Ptotal, total nitrogen (TN) and Norg, the average removal efficiencies in the SBR were up to 58, 25 and 73%, respectively.

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OBJECTIVES: to determine the prognostic factors that may impact on morbidity and mortality and survival of patients undergoing surgical treatment of liver metastases from neuroendocrine tumors. METHODS: We studied 22 patients undergoing liver resection for metastases from neuroendocrine tumors between 1997 and 2007. Epidemiological and clinical data were correlated with morbidity and mortality and overall and disease-free survivals. RESULTS: twelve patients were male and ten female, with a mean age of 48.5 years. Bilobar disease was present in 17 patients (77.3%). In ten patients (45.5%) the primary tumor originated in the pancreas, terminal ileum in eight, duodenum in two, rectum in one and jejunum in one. Complete surgical resection (R0) was achieved in 59.1% of patients. Eight patients (36.3%) developed complications in the immediate postoperative period, one of them dying from septicemia. All patients undergoing re-hepatectomy and/or two-stage hepatectomy had complications in the postoperative period. The overall survival at one and five years was 77.3% and 44.2%. The disease-free survival at five years was 13.6%. The primary pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (p = 0.006) was associated with reduced overall survival. Patients with number of metastatic nodules < 10 (p = 0.03) and asymptomatic at diagnosis (p = 0.015) had higher disease-free survival. CONCLUSION: liver metastases originating from pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors proved to be a negative prognostic factor. Symptomatic patients with multiple metastatic nodules showed a significant reduction in disease-free survival.

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This thesis is concerned with the state and parameter estimation in state space models. The estimation of states and parameters is an important task when mathematical modeling is applied to many different application areas such as the global positioning systems, target tracking, navigation, brain imaging, spread of infectious diseases, biological processes, telecommunications, audio signal processing, stochastic optimal control, machine learning, and physical systems. In Bayesian settings, the estimation of states or parameters amounts to computation of the posterior probability density function. Except for a very restricted number of models, it is impossible to compute this density function in a closed form. Hence, we need approximation methods. A state estimation problem involves estimating the states (latent variables) that are not directly observed in the output of the system. In this thesis, we use the Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, Gauss–Hermite filters, and particle filters to estimate the states based on available measurements. Among these filters, particle filters are numerical methods for approximating the filtering distributions of non-linear non-Gaussian state space models via Monte Carlo. The performance of a particle filter heavily depends on the chosen importance distribution. For instance, inappropriate choice of the importance distribution can lead to the failure of convergence of the particle filter algorithm. In this thesis, we analyze the theoretical Lᵖ particle filter convergence with general importance distributions, where p ≥2 is an integer. A parameter estimation problem is considered with inferring the model parameters from measurements. For high-dimensional complex models, estimation of parameters can be done by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In its operation, the MCMC method requires the unnormalized posterior distribution of the parameters and a proposal distribution. In this thesis, we show how the posterior density function of the parameters of a state space model can be computed by filtering based methods, where the states are integrated out. This type of computation is then applied to estimate parameters of stochastic differential equations. Furthermore, we compute the partial derivatives of the log-posterior density function and use the hybrid Monte Carlo and scaled conjugate gradient methods to infer the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The computational efficiency of MCMC methods is highly depend on the chosen proposal distribution. A commonly used proposal distribution is Gaussian. In this kind of proposal, the covariance matrix must be well tuned. To tune it, adaptive MCMC methods can be used. In this thesis, we propose a new way of updating the covariance matrix using the variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter algorithm.

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Short stature, a marker for undernutrition early in life, has been associated with obesity in Brazilian women, but not in men. We tested the hypothesis that weight gain during the reproductive years could explain this gender difference. A national two-stage household survey of mothers with one or more children under five years of age was conducted in Brazil in 1996. The subjects were women aged 20 to 45 years (N = 2297), with last delivery seven months or more prior to the interview. The regions of the country were divided into rural, North/Northeast (urban underdeveloped) and South/Southeast/Midwest (urban developed). The dependent variables were current body mass index (BMI) measured, BMI prior to childbearing (reported), and BMI change. Socioeconomic variables included mother's years of education and family purchasing power score. A secondary analysis was restricted to primiparous women. The prevalence of current overweight and overweight prior to childbearing (BMI > or = 25 kg/m²) was higher among shorter women (<1.50 m) compared to normal stature women only in the urban developed region (P < 0.05). After adjustment for socioeconomic variables, age, parity, BMI prior to childbearing, and age at first birth, current BMI was 2.39 units higher (P = 0.008) for short stature women living in the urban developed area compared with short stature women living in the urban underdeveloped area. For both multiparous and primiparous women, BMI gain compared to the value prior to childbearing was significantly higher among short stature women living in the urban developed region (P <= 0.04). These results provide clear evidence that short stature was associated with a higher BMI and with an increased risk of weight gain/retention with pregnancy in the developed areas of Brazil, but not in the underdeveloped ones.