El Ni��o 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook January 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Ni��o conditions in the east and central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during this summer���s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Ni��o conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Ni��o Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Ni��o conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ���Observations and Outlook��� row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and Dec 2015, a detailed monthly outlook from 4 modeling centres for Jan 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of Feb 2016, MAM 2016 and Jun 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts.

El Ni��o 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook February 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Ni��o conditions in the east and central Pacific strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during the summer���s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Ni��o conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Ni��o Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work, providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Ni��o conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ���Observations and Outlook��� row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and DJ 2015/2016, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Feb 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of MAM 2016 and JJ 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts. This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

The role of big data in governance: a regulatory and legal perspective of analytics in global financial services

This paper discusses how global financial institutions are using big data analytics within their compliance operations. A lot of previous research has focused on the strategic implications of big data, but not much research has considered how such tools are entwined with regulatory breaches and investigations in financial services. Our work covers two in-depth qualitative case studies, each addressing a distinct type of analytics. The first case focuses on analytics which manage everyday compliance breaches and so are expected by managers. The second case focuses on analytics which facilitate investigation and litigation where serious unexpected breaches may have occurred. In doing so, the study focuses on the micro/data to understand how these tools are influencing operational risks and practices. The paper draws from two bodies of literature, the social studies of information systems and finance to guide our analysis and practitioner recommendations. The cases illustrate how technologies are implicated in multijurisdictional challenges and regulatory conflicts at each end of the operational risk spectrum. We find that compliance analytics are both shaping and reporting regulatory matters yet often firms may have difficulties in recruiting individuals with relevant but diverse skill sets. The cases also underscore the increasing need for financial organizations to adopt robust information governance policies and processes to ease future remediation efforts.

El Ni��o 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook March 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Ni��o conditions in the east and central Pacific strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during the summer���s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Ni��o conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Ni��o Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work, providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Ni��o conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ���Observations and Outlook��� row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and DJF 2015/2016, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Mar 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of AM 2016 and JJA 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts. This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

Delayed local inflammatory response induced by Thalassophryne nattereri venom is related to extracellular matrix degradation

Symptoms evoked by Thalassophryne nattereri fish envenomation include local oedema, severe pain and intense necrosis with strikingly inefficient healing, continuing for several weeks or months. Investigations carried out in our laboratory showed that, in the venom-induced acute inflammation, thrombosis in venules and constrictions in arterioles were highly visible, in contrast to a notable lack of inflammatory cell. Nevertheless, the reason that the venom toxins favour delayed local inflammatory response is poorly defined. In this study, we analysed the movement of leucocytes after T. nattereri venom injection in the intraplantar region of Swiss mice, the production of pro-inflammatory mediators and the venom potential to elicit matrix metalloproteinase production and extracellular matrix degradation. Total absence of mononuclear and neutrophil influx was observed until 14 days, but the venom stimulates pro-inflammatory mediator secretion. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMP)-2 and MMP-9 were detected in greater quantities, accompanied by tissue degradation of collagenous fibre. An influx of mononuclear cells was noted very late and at this time the levels of IL-6, IL-1 beta and MMP-2 remained high. Additionally, the action of venom on the cytoskeletal organization was assessed in vitro. Swift F-actin disruption and subsequent loss of focal adhesion was noted. Collectively these findings show that the altered specific interaction cell-matrix during the inflammatory process creates an inadequate environment for infiltration of inflammatory cells.

Existence of secondary bifurcations or isolas for PDEs

In this paper, we introduce a method to conclude about the existence of secondary bifurcations or isolas of steady state solutions for parameter dependent nonlinear partial differential equations. The technique combines the Global Bifurcation Theorem, knowledge about the non-existence of nontrivial steady state solutions at the zero parameter value and explicit information about the coexistence of multiple nontrivial steady states at a positive parameter value. We apply the method to the two-dimensional Swift-Hohenberg equation. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Update on the correlation of the highest energy cosmic rays with nearby extragalactic matter

Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory through 31 August 2007 showed evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz`min energy threshold, 6 x 10(19) eV. The anisotropy was measured by the fraction of arrival directions that are less than 3.1 degrees from the position of an active galactic nucleus within 75 Mpc (using the Veron-Cetty and Veron 12th catalog). An updated measurement of this fraction is reported here using the arrival directions of cosmic rays recorded above the same energy threshold through 31 December 2009. The number of arrival directions has increased from 27 to 69, allowing a more precise measurement. The correlating fraction is (38(-6)(+7))%, compared with 21% expected for isotropic cosmic rays. This is down from the early estimate of (69-(+11)(13))%. The enlarged set of arrival directions is examined also in relation to other populations of nearby extragalactic objects: galaxies in the 2 Microns All Sky Survey and active galactic nuclei detected in hard X-rays by the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. A celestial region around the position of the radiogalaxy Cen A has the largest excess of arrival directions relative to isotropic expectations. The 2-point autocorrelation function is shown for the enlarged set of arrival directions and compared to the isotropic expectation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Model Configuration And Data Management In The Short-Term Water Information Forecasting Tools

The Short-term Water Information and Forecasting Tools (SWIFT) is a suite of tools for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting, consisting of a collection of hydrologic model components and utilities. Catchments are modeled using conceptual subareas and a node-link structure for channel routing. The tools comprise modules for calibration, model state updating, output error correction, ensemble runs and data assimilation. Given the combinatorial nature of the modelling experiments and the sub-daily time steps typically used for simulations, the volume of model configurations and time series data is substantial and its management is not trivial. SWIFT is currently used mostly for research purposes but has also been used operationally, with intersecting but significantly different requirements. Early versions of SWIFT used mostly ad-hoc text files handled via Fortran code, with limited use of netCDF for time series data. The configuration and data handling modules have since been redesigned. The model configuration now follows a design where the data model is decoupled from the on-disk persistence mechanism. For research purposes the preferred on-disk format is JSON, to leverage numerous software libraries in a variety of languages, while retaining the legacy option of custom tab-separated text formats when it is a preferred access arrangement for the researcher. By decoupling data model and data persistence, it is much easier to interchangeably use for instance relational databases to provide stricter provenance and audit trail capabilities in an operational flood forecasting context. For the time series data, given the volume and required throughput, text based formats are usually inadequate. A schema derived from CF conventions has been designed to efficiently handle time series for SWIFT.

Valores, atitudes e comportamentos gerenciais requeridos pelo processo de globaliza����o e as diretrizes para as a����es de desenvolvimento de recursos humanos

O processo de globaliza����o hoje uma realidade, alterando as rela����es entre na����es, sociedades organiza����es. movimento de globaliza����o da economia modifica radicalmente as rela����es do homem com meio produtivo social, levantando quest��es fundamentais quanto ess��ncia das transforma����es em curso, que justifiquem fen��menos tend��ncias aparentemente inexplic��veis. Mudan��as fortes velozes, exigindo dos indiv��duos das organiza����es habilidade em se adaptarem em graus nunca antes requeridos, tornam-se as ��nicas certezas da atualidade, propiciando aparecimento simult��neo de v��rias tend��ncias administrativas de mudan��a organizacional no contexto empresarial brasileiro. Este trabalho pretende proporcionar uma reflex��o sobre os efeitos que as mudan��as em curso tem produzido no quadro de valores, atitudes comportamentos gerenciais requeridos pelas organiza����es, bem como sobre novo papel ser desempenhado pela ��rea de Desenvolvimento de Recursos Humanos.

Perspectivas de incremento econ��mico alavancado pelo turismo de Bento Gon��alves - RS

�� indiscut��vel, nos dias atuais, que o turismo deva ser encarado como importante motor de desenvolvimento com base local, contemplando as potencialidades end��genas, j�� que produz muta����es no ambiente fisico e social onde se instala .. O munic��pio de Bento Gon��alves - RS, abarca in��meros fatores que podem ser considerados potencialmente atrativos tur��sticos, como clima, relevo, gastronomia, cultura, eventos, produ����o agr��cola e industrial, etc. Com base nestes fatores, a presente disserta����o - que surgiu da detec����o de que o mercado do turismo est�� em franco crescimento em todo mundo e da possibilidade de encontrar uma forma de impulsionar cada vez mais a economia do munic��pio - ter�� como meta estudar cientificamente o fen��meno tur��stico (prioritariamente receptivo) desta cidade, tendo em vista detectar a����es e atividades que ensejem incremento e que possam contribuir para alavancar economicamente a economia local. Embora a palavra "turismo" tenha surgido no s��culo XIX, algumas de suas formas j�� existiam desde as mais antigas civiliza����es e a sua participa����o, at�� recentemente, estava restrita a uma elite que dispunha de tempo e dinheiro para realizar suas viagens. Atualmente, por��m, a maioria das pessoas dos pa��ses desenvolvidos, e um n��mero significativo daquelas dos pa��ses subdesenvolvidos, t��m realizado viagens tur��sticas uma ou mais vezes por ano, de modo que o turismo j�� n��o �� uma prerrogativa de alguns cidad��os privilegiados; sua exist��ncia �� aceita e constitui parte integrante do estilo de vida para um n��mero crescente de pessoas em todo mundo. Por isso, o planejamento �� fundamental e indispens��vel para o desenvolvimento tur��stico equilibrado e em harmonia com os recursos fisicos, culturais e sociais das regi��es receptoras. Num ramo de neg��cios como o do turismo, sujeito a r��pidas mudan��as no comportamento da demanda, a pesquisa caracteriza-se como instrumento valioso que permite posteriores previs��es e proje����es de tend��ncias sobre a evolu����o futura do setor. Com base nos dados levantados (que dever��o espelhar a maior aproxima����o poss��vel da realidade), a presente disserta����o, intitulada Perspectivas de Incremento Econ��mico Alavancado Pelo Tur��mo no Munic��pio de Bento Gon��alves - RS, pretende dimensionar equipamentos e servi��os que ser��o necess��rios para atender as expectarivas da clientela tur��stica que visitar o munic��pio de Bento Gon��alves - RS, nos pr��ximos anos. Por ��ltimo, as informa����es obtidas neste trabalho auxiliar��o nas escolhas de estrat��gias que poder��o ser utilizadas pelas organiza����es p��blicas e privadas, que disputar��o os cliente-turistas no mercado.

Determina����o da posi����o reticular de F em Si

Neste trabalho, estudamos a posi����o de ��tomos de F na estrutura cristalina do Si. As amostras foram pr��-amorfizadas utilizando um feixe de Si de 200 keV e, ap��s, implantadas com F. Ent��o recristalizamos a camada amorfa atrav��s do processo de Epitaxia de Fase S��lida (EFS). Empregamos as t��cnicas de Espectrometria de Retroespalhamento Rutherford, na condi����o de canaliza����o i��nica, e de An��lise por Rea����o Nuclear (NRA), atrav��s da rea����o ressonante ( ) O p F 16 19 , ���� , �� 5 , 340 keV, para determinar a posi����o dos ��tomos de F e, depois, reproduzimos os resultados experimentais atrav��s do programa de simula����o computacional chamado Simula����o Adaptada de Canaliza����o de ��ons R��pidos em S��lidos (CASSIS - Channeling Adapted Simulation of Swift Ions in Solids). Os resultados obtidos apontam para duas poss��veis combina����es lineares distintas de s��tios. Uma delas concorda com a proposta te��rica de Hirose et al. (Materials Science & Engineering B ��� 91-92, 148, 2002), para uma condi����o experimental similar. Nessa configura����o, os ��tomos de F est��o na forma de complexos entre ��tomos de fl��or e vac��ncias (F-V). A outra combina����o ainda n��o foi proposta na literatura e tamb��m pode ser pensada como um tipo de complexo F-V.

Essays on finance and macroeconomy

I study the asset-pricing implications in an cnviromncnt with feedback traders and rational arbitrageurs. Feedback traders are defined as possible naive investors who buy after a raise in prices and sell after a drop in prices. I consider two types of feedback strategies: (1) short-term (SF), motivated by institutional rulcs as top-losscs and margin calls and (2) long-tcrm (LF), motivated by representativeness bias from non-sophisticated investors. Their presence in the market follows a stochastic regime swift process. Short lived assumption for the arbitrageurs prevents the correction of the misspricing generated by feedback strategies. The estimated modcl using US data suggests that the regime switching is able to capture the time varying autocorrclation of returns. The segregation of feedback types helps to identify the long term component that otherwise would not show up due to the large movements implied by the SF typc. The paper also has normativo implications for practioners since it providos a methodology to identify mispricings driven by feedback traders.

Estrat��gias composicionais de um autor brasileiro : um estudo sobre a ironia, a par��dia e a s��tira em contos de Machado de Assis

Nesta tese, pretendo desenvolver um estudo comparatista com o objetivo de demonstrar o efeito de cr��tica cultural impl��cito no uso da ironia e da par��dia de discursos n��o-liter��rios em contos de Machado de Assis. Este trabalho visa tamb��m investigar a rela����o das narrativas desse autor com o g��nero s��tira ��� a partir do manejo das referidas estrat��gias composicionais ��� e, assim, ressaltar a especificidade do seu realismo e a natureza de sua perspectiva sat��rica, quando comparada ��s que se apresentam nas s��tiras de Voltaire (C��ndido) e de Swift (As Viagens de Gulliver).

Da compreens��o novas viagens de Gulliver

Ayant comme op��rateur cognitif le livre Les Voyages de Gulliver, de Jonathan Swift, la th��se, ��crite au format d'un journal de bord, suit d��voilant des indices pour une arch��ologie de la compr��hension, au-del�� de probl��matiser les interconexions entre communication et compr��hension �� l'actuel proc��s de plan��tarism. En suite, r��alise quelques essais qui probl��matisent l'��thique, la science, et la condition humaine, sous l'inspiration du Parl��ment des Choses, sugg��re�� par Bruno Latour, o�� sont pr��sents, sym��triquement, les sciences, les scientists, les politiques, les natures, les cultures, et les soci��t��s. Pour une telle aventure, sont agenc��es des ideas de penseurs de diverses domaines de la connaissance, comme Edgar Morin, Henri Atlan, Hans-Georg Gadamer, Isabelle Stengers, David Bohm, Maria da Concei����o de Almeida, Cremilda Medina, Mar��a Zambrano, Michel Serres, Boris Cyrulnik, dentre autres. Lettres de musique, registres litt��raires et cin��matographiques servent de points d'appuy pour la contextualization du r��cit de ce voyage qui ne comporte pas seulement la compr��hension de la compl��xit�� de l'��tre-humain, mais aussi, la compr��hension des conditions dans lequelles sont forg��es les mentalit��s et pratiques les actions. Ainsi, toule compr��hension est un voyage sans fin: arrive �� quelques ports, se r��-approvisionne et part �� nouveau. Toute compr��hension est ponctuelle, parcielle, provisoire, lacunaire et inachev��e.