Tertiary Treatment of Ayr Municipal Wastewater using Bioremediation: A Pilot-Scale Study. A Report Prepared for the Burdekin Shire Council and the Burdekin Rangeland Reef Initiative

This joint DPI/Burdekin Shire Council project assessed the efficacy of a pilot-scale biological remediation system to recover Nitrogen (N) and Phosphorous (P) nutrients from secondary treated municipal wastewater at the Ayr Sewage Treatment Plant. Additionally, this study considered potential commercial uses for by-products from the treatment system. Knowledge gained from this study can provide directions for implementing a larger-scale final effluent treatment protocol on site at the Ayr plant. Trials were conducted over 10 months and assessed nutrient removal from duckweed-based treatments and an algae/fish treatment – both as sequential and as stand-alone treatment systems. A 42.3% reduction in Total N was found through the sequential treatment system (duckweed followed by algae/fish treatment) after 6.6 days Effluent Retention Time (E.R.T.). However, duckweed treatment was responsible for the majority of this nutrient recovery (7.8 times more effective than algae/fish treatment). Likewise, Total P reduction (15.75% reduction after 6.6 days E.R.T.) was twice as great in the duckweed treatment. A phytoplankton bloom, which developed in the algae/fish tanks, reduced nutrient recovery in this treatment. A second trial tested whether the addition of fish enhanced duckweed treatment by evaluating systems with and without fish. After four weeks operation, low DO under the duckweed blanket caused fish mortalities. Decomposition of these fish led to an additional organic load and this was reflected in a breakdown of nitrogen species that showed an increase in organic nitrogen. However, the Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN: ammonia, nitrite and nitrate) removal was similar between treatments with and without fish (57% and 59% DIN removal from incoming, respectively). Overall, three effluent residence times were evaluated using duckweed-based treatments; i.e. 3.5 days, 5.5 days and 10.4 days. Total N removal was 37.5%, 55.7% and 70.3%, respectively. The 10.4-day E.R.T. trial, however, was evaluated by sequential nutrient removal through the duckweed-minus-fish treatment followed by the duckweed-plus-fish treatment. Therefore, the 70.3% Total N removal was lower than could have been achieved at this retention time due to the abovementioned fish mortalities. Phosphorous removal from duckweed treatments was greatest after 10.4-days E.R.T. (13.6%). Plant uptake was considered the most important mechanism for this P removal since there was no clay substrate in the plastic tanks that could have contributed to P absorption as part of the natural phosphorous cycle. Duckweed inhibited phytoplankton production (therefore reducing T.S.S) and maintained pH close to neutral. DO beneath the duckweed blanket fell to below 1ppm; however, this did not limit plant production. If fish are to be used as part of the duckweed treatment, air-uplifts can be installed that maintain DO levels without disturbing surface waters. Duckweed grown in the treatments doubled its biomass on average every 5.7 days. On a per-surface area basis, 1.23kg/m2 was harvested weekly. Moisture content of duckweed was 92%, equating to a total dry weight harvest of 0.098kg/m2/week. Nutrient analysis of dried duckweed gave an N content of 6.67% and a P content of 1.27%. According to semi-quantitative analyses, harvested duckweed contained no residual elements from the effluent stream that were greater than ANZECC toxicant guidelines proposed for aquaculture. In addition, jade perch, a local aquaculture species, actively consumed and gained weight on harvested duckweed, suggesting potential for large-scale fish production using by-products from the effluent treatment process. This suggests that a duckweed-based system may be one viable option for tertiary treatment of Ayr municipal wastewater. The tertiary detention lagoon proposed by the Burdekin Shire Council, consisting of six bays approximately 290 x 35 metres (x 1.5 metres deep), would be suitable for duckweed culture with minor modification to facilitate the efficient distribution of duckweed plants across the entire available growing surface (such as floating containment grids). The effluent residence time resulting from this proposed configuration (~30 days) should be adequate to recover most effluent nutrients (certainly N) based on the current trial. Duckweed harvest techniques on this scale, however, need to be further investigated. Based on duckweed production in the current trial (1.23kg/m2/week), a weekly harvest of approximately 75 000kg (wet weight) could be expected from the proposed lagoon configuration under full duckweed production. A benefit of the proposed multi-bay lagoon is that full lagoon production of duckweed may not be needed to restore effluent to a desirable standard under the present nutrient load, and duckweed treatment may be restricted to certain bays. Restored effluent could be released without risk of contaminating the receiving waterway with duckweed by evacuating water through an internal standpipe located mid-way in the water column.

Using wheat flour in the production of organic banana prawns

Banana prawn (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis) juveniles (1-2 g) were compared for survival, growth and condition after feeding in tanks over one month with several simple diets based on organically certified whole wheat flour. All feeds were applied once per day at 6% of the starting body weight, and produced high survival (>94%). A commercial Australian prawn feed used as the control diet produced the highest (P<0.05) growth (101% weight gain) and condition measured as the length of antennae (13.2 cm). The unfed control had significantly (P<0.05) lower survival (56%), and resulted in a weight loss (3.1%) and the shortest antennae (9.4 cm). Adding free flour to tanks produced lower (P<0.05) growth (6.9%) and shorter (P<0.05) antennae (10.3 cm) than adding pelletised flour with low levels (dry weight) of additional nutritional substances and feed attractants (chicken’s whole egg: 1.5%, polychaete slurry: 1.1% and 6.8%, molasses: 4.2%). Rolling the flour into a dough ball also appeared to marginally improve its direct utilisation by the prawns. These results are considered within the context of appropriate nutrition for Penaeids and successfully producing certified organic prawns in Australia.

Organic diet development for black tiger prawns

The survival and growth of black tiger prawn (Penaeus monodon) juveniles (~3.3 g) were compared after feeding in tanks over one month with several prepared diets based on organically certified ingredients. The extrusion process in the manufacture of pelletised experimental diets was similar to processes used in commercial plants and was closely documented. The daily feeding rate (6% of starting mean body weight) was split equally into two feeds, one in the morning and one in the afternoon. All diets tested produced high survival (97-100%). A widely-used commercial Australian prawn feed was used as a control diet. It contained 41.2% protein with 29.5 g kg-1 lysine, and produced the highest (P<0.05) growth (117% weight gain). Three of the experimental organic diets tested (namely, 1. wheat + soy, 2. pig weaner diet + soy, and 3. pig weaner diet + dried fish waste) produced moderate growth (73–77% weight gain). These contained 33%, 36% or 31% protein, respectively, and produced better (P<0.05) growth than diets utilising a range of other prospective ingredients (eg: wheat + dried scallop gut, wheat + fish waste, wheat + chickpea, or wheat + macadamia meal, containing 23%, 25%, 29% or 24% protein, respectively). An unfed control-treatment produced the lowest (P<0.05) growth (4% weight gain). The water stability of the experimental diets that produced the best growth was poorer than the commercial diet, suggesting that improvements in this aspect of these organic feed’s manufacture could result in additional performance benefits and possibly reduced feed wastage. Analyses revealed a linear relationship between diet performance (in terms of weight gains) and the protein and lysine contents of diets. About 70% of diet performance was explained by these factors. The superior performance of the commercial diet could be attributed primarily to its formulation using mainly marine proteins, as well as a range of other unknown factors (commercial in confidence). These other factors range from use of feed attractants, better knowledge of ingredient nutrient availability, different extrusion conditions and the use of other unspecified micro-nutrients not present in the experimental diets. The organic diets studied still require a degree of fine-tuning before structured commercial uptake. This would sensibly include further detailed investigations of the composition and nutrient availabilities of these and other organic dietary ingredients, and refinement of the extrusion process for formulated diets.

Follicle stimulating hormone secretion and dominant follicle growth during treatment of Bos indicus heifers with intra-vaginal progesterone releasing devices, oestradiol benzoate, equine chorionic gonadotrophin and prostaglandin F-2 alpha

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects on follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) secretion and dominant follicle (OF) growth, of treatment of Bos indicus heifers with different combinations of intra-vaginal progesterone releasing devices (IPRD), oestradiol benzoate (ODB), PGF(2 alpha), and eCG. Two-year-old Brahman (BN; n=30) and Brahman-cross (BNX; n=34) heifers were randomly allocated to three IPRD-treatments: (i) standard-dose IPRD [CM 1.56 g; 1.56 g progesterone (P-4); n = 17]; (ii) half-dose IPRD (CM 0.78 g; 0.78 g p(4); n=15); (iii) half-dose IPRD + 300 IU eCG at IPRD removal (CM 0.78 g+G; n=14); and, (iv) non-IPRD control (2 x PGF(2 alpha); n=18) 500 mu g cloprostenol on Days -16 and -2. IPRD-treated heifers received 250 mu g PGF(2 alpha) at IPRD insertion (Day 10) and IPRD removal (Day -2) and 1 mg ODB on Day -10 and Day -1. Follicular dynamics were monitored daily by trans-rectal ultrasonography from Day -10 to Day 1. Blood samples for determination of P-4 were collected daily and samples for FSH determination were collected at 12 h intervals from Day -9 to Day -2. A significant surge in concentrations of FSH was observed in the 2 x PGF(2 alpha), treatment 12 h prior and 48 h after follicular wave emergence, but not in the IPRD-treated heifers. Estimated mean concentrations of total plasma P-4 during the 8 days of IPRD insertion was greater (P<0.001) in the CM 1.56 g P-4 treated heifers compared to the CM 0.78 g P-4 treated heifers (18.38 ng/ml compared with 11.09 ng/ml, respectively). A treatment by genotype interaction (P=0.036) was observed in the mean plasma P4 concentration in heifers with no CL during IPRD insertion, whereby BN heifers in the CM 1.56 g treatment had greater plasma P-4 than the BNX heifers on Days-9, -7, -6, -5, and -4. However, there was no genotype effect in the CM 0.78 g +/- G or the 2 x PGF(2 alpha) treatment. Treatment had no effect on the DF growth from either day of wave emergence (P=0.378) or day of IPRD removal (P=0.780) to ovulation. This study demonstrates that FSH secretion in B. indicus heifers treated with a combination of IPRD's and ODB to synchronise ovulation was suppressed during the period of IPRD insertion but no significant effect on growth of the DF was observed. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bacillus cereus spores and cereulide in food-borne illness

B. cereus is a gram-positive bacterium that possesses two different forms of life:the large, rod-shaped cells (ca. 0.002 mm by 0.004 mm) that are able to propagate and the small (0.001 mm), oval shaped spores. The spores can survive in almost any environment for up to centuries without nourishment or water. They are insensitive towards most agents that normally kill bacteria: heating up to several hours at 90 ºC, radiation, disinfectants and extreme alkaline (≥ pH 13) and acid (≤ pH 1) environment. The spores are highly hydrophobic and therefore make them tend to stick to all kinds of surfaces, steel, plastics and live cells. In favorable conditions the spores of B. cereus may germinate into vegetative cells capable of producing food poisoning toxins. The toxins can be heat-labile protein formed after ingestion of the contaminated food, inside the gastrointestinal tract (diarrhoeal toxins), or heat stable peptides formed in the food (emesis causing toxin, cereulide). Cereulide cannot be inactivated in foods by cooking or any other procedure applicable on food. Cereulide in consumed food causes serious illness in human, even fatalities. In this thesis, B. cereus strains originating from different kinds of foods and environments and 8 different countries were inspected for their capability of forming cereulide. Of the 1041 isolates from soil, animal feed, water, air, used bedding, grass, dung and equipment only 1.2 % were capable of producing cereulide, whereas of the 144 isolates originating from foods 24 % were cereulide producers. Cereulide was detected by two methods: by its toxicity towards mammalian cells (sperm assay) and by its peculiar chemical structure using liquid-chromatograph-mass spectrometry equipment. B. cereus is known as one of the most frequent bacteria occurring in food. Most foods contain more than one kind of B. cereus. When randomly selected 100 isolates of B. cereus from commercial infant foods (dry formulas) were tested, 11% of these produced cereulide. Considering a frequent content of 103 to 104 cfu (colony forming units) of B. cereus per gram of infant food formula (dry), it appears likely that most servings (200 ml, 30 g of the powder reconstituted with water) may contain cereulide producers. When a reconstituted infant formula was inoculated with >105 cfu of cereulide producing B. cereus per ml and left at room temperature, cereulide accumulated to food poisoning levels (> 0.1 mg of cereulide per serving) within 24 hours. Paradoxically, the amount of cereulide (per g of food) increased 10 to 50 fold when the food was diluted 4 - 15 fold with water. The amount of the produced cereulide strongly depended on the composition of the formula: most toxin was formed in formulas with cereals mixed with milk, and least toxin in formulas based on milk only. In spite of the aggressive cleaning practices executed by the modern dairy industry, certain genotypes of B. cereus appear to colonise the silos tanks. In this thesis four strategies to explain their survival of their spores in dairy silos were identified. First, high survival (log 15 min kill ≤ 1.5) in the hot alkaline (pH >13) wash liquid, used at the dairies for cleaning-in-place. Second, efficient adherence of the spores to stainless steel from cold water. Third, a cereulide producing group with spores characterized by slow germination in rich medium and well preserved viability when exposed to heating at 90 ºC. Fourth, spores capable of germinating at 8 ºC and possessing the psychrotolerance gene, cspA. There were indications that spores highly resistant to hot 1% sodium hydroxide may be effectively inactivated by hot 0.9% nitric acid. Eight out of the 14 dairy silo tank isolates possessing hot alkali resistant spores were capable of germinating and forming biofilm in whole milk, not previously reported for B. cereus. In this thesis it was shown that cereulide producing B. cereus was capable of inhibiting the growth of cereulide non-producing B. cereus occurring in the same food. This phenomenon, called antagonism, has long been known to exist between B. cereus and other microbial species, e.g. various species of Bacillus, gram-negative bacteria and plant pathogenic fungi. In this thesis intra-species antagonism of B. cereus was shown for the first time. This brother-killing did not depend on the cereulide molecule, also some of the cereulide non-producers were potent antagonists. Interestingly, the antagonistic clades were most frequently found in isolates from food implicated with human illness. The antagonistic property was therefore proposed in this thesis as a novel virulence factor that increases the human morbidity of the species B. cereus, in particular of the cereulide producers.

Hollow sperm syndrome during spermatogenesis in the giant tiger shrimp Penaeus monodon (Fabricius 1798) from eastern Australia

During spermatogenesis, giant tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon) from Queensland, eastern Australia had a high proportion of testicular spermatids that appeared 'hollow' because their nuclei were not visible with the haematoxylin and eosin stain. When examined by transmission electron microscopy, the nuclei of hollow spermatids contained highly decondensed chromatin, with large areas missing fibrillar chromatin. Together with hollow spermatids, testicular pale enlarged (PE) spermatids with weakly staining and marginated chromatin were observed. Degenerate-eosinophilic-clumped (DEC) spermatids that appeared as aggregated clumps were also present in testes tubules. Among 171 sub-adult and adult P. monodon examined from several origins, 43% displayed evidence of hollow spermatids in the testes, 33% displayed PE spermatids and 15% displayed DEC spermatids. These abnormal sperm were also found at lower prevalence in the vas deferens and spermatophore. We propose 'Hollow Sperm Syndrome (HSS)' to describe this abnormal sperm condition as these morphological aberrations have yet to be described in penaeid shrimp. No specific cause of HSS was confirmed by examining either tank or pond cultured shrimp exposed to various stocking densities, temperatures, salinities, dietary and seasonal factors. Compared with wild broodstock, HSS occurred at higher prevalence and severity among sub-adults originating from farms, research ponds and tanks. Further studies are required to establish what physiological, hormonal or metabolic processes may cause HSS and whether it compromises the fertility of male P. monodon.

Effect of LHRH agonists and antagonists in male and female bonnet monkeys (Macaca Radiata)

A few analogues of LHRH have been tested in the adult bonnet monkeys using change in serum testosterone following LHRH injection as a parameter of response to LHRH. Of the four analogues tested in male monkeys, Buserelin was found to be the most potent one in increasing serum testosterone levels. Injection of the LHRH antagonist at 1600 h resulted in the abolition of the characteristic nocturnal surge of testosterone observed in adult bonnet monkeys maintained under regulated light conditions. Following administration of LHRH a/s during early pregnancy, serum chorionic gonadotropin levels decreased though the course of pregnancy was not affected. These results suggest that bonnet monkey can be successfully employed to test LHRH analogues.

Staubkorn im Sandsturm.

Fate of the Jewish physician Karl Goldberg, novel written in 1944. Novel is only partially autobiographical.

Age and growth of two newly established invasive populations of Tilapiamariae in northern Australia

Sagittal otoliths were used to age the samples of Tilapia mariae collected from a coastal river and an impoundment. Validation of sagittae checks was achieved using both quantitative marginal increment analysis and by tetracycline marking of the otoliths of fish kept in tanks and in a farm dam. The annulus pattern on the otoliths was generally clear and their formation appeared to be temperature related and largely completed in the Austral spring around September and October. Male T. mariae grow faster and larger than females and the maximum ages of fish from the coastal river and impoundment was 9+ and 4+ years, respectively. Past fish surveys and the absence of older age classes in the impoundment population would suggest that this population was only very recently established.

Performance and physiological responses of combined t-bar and PIT tagged giant mud crabs (Scylla serrata)

Mud crabs (Scylla spp.) are intensively caught throughout South-East Asia and support a very substantial commercial, recreational fishing and aquaculture industry. Identification of individual animals is important to improve understanding and management of this species. However, tagging of crustaceans is difficult as they frequently molt and internal tags can pose a hazard to consumers. In this pilot study we tested a new method combining passive integrated transponder tags and t-bar tags externally. 45 giant mud crabs (Scylla serrata) were captured from the wild and kept in tanks for a maximum of 10 months. We inserted tags into the abdomen of 35 giant mud crabs and tested a modified method where the combined t-bar/PIT-tag was inserted into the muscle tissue of the rear leg between the dorsal carapace plate and the top of the abdominal flap. Tagged crabs with the modified method showed 85% tag retention for molting crabs. We tested the same method in the field where 852 individuals were tagged with combined t-bar/PIT-tags of which 82 were recaptured showing 100% tag retention but without any evidence of molting having occurred. The tested method of combined t-bar/PIT-tags in giant mud crabs can further improve monitoring for wild and aquaculture populations and can be deployed widely with low cost.

Performance and physiological responses of combined t-bar and PIT tagged giant mud crabs (Scylla serrata)

Mud crabs (Scylla spp.) are intensively caught throughout South-East Asia and support a very substantial commercial, recreational fishing and aquaculture industry. Identification of individual animals is important to improve understanding and management of this species. However, tagging of crustaceans is difficult as they frequently molt and internal tags can pose a hazard to consumers. In this pilot study we tested a new method combining passive integrated transponder tags and t-bar tags externally. 45 giant mud crabs (Scylla serrata) were captured from the wild and kept in tanks for a maximum of 10 months. We inserted tags into the abdomen of 35 giant mud crabs and tested a modified method where the combined t-bar/PIT-tag was inserted into the muscle tissue of the rear leg between the dorsal carapace plate and the top of the abdominal flap. Tagged crabs with the modified method showed 85% tag retention for molting crabs. We tested the same method in the field where 852 individuals were tagged with combined t-bar/PIT-tags of which 82 were recaptured showing 100% tag retention but without any evidence of molting having occurred. The tested method of combined t-bar/PIT-tags in giant mud crabs can further improve monitoring for wild and aquaculture populations and can be deployed widely with low cost.

Regulation of Testosterone Rhythmicity by Gonadotropins in Bonnet Monkeys (Macaca radiata)

In an attempt to study the factor(s) that regulates production of nychthemeral testosterone surges in adult male bonnet monkeys (Macaca radiata), serum levels of testosterone, LH, FSH, and prolactin were monitored during a 24 h period. Only prolactin showed a significant increment in its levels coincident with that of the testosterone surge. The relationship between LH and testosterone production was studied by 1) observing the responsiveness of testes, in terms of testosterone production, to one or two injections of oLH (1 mg/injection) given 12 h apart at 0900 and 2100 h; and 2) monitoring the effect on testicular testosterone production of LH antiserum injection given at 1000, 1700, and 2100 h. That each LH injection brought about an increment in testosterone level of equal magnitude suggests that the difference in responsiveness of the testes to unchanging levels of LH at morning and night hours is not due to any alteration in substrate availability at the two time intervals. The LH antiserum experiments indicate that irrespective of the time of its administration the nocturnal surge of testosterone, which normally occurs at 2200 h, is blocked. While the antiserum prevents a rise in testosterone level, it appears not to influence basal testosterone production. The results further show that even at 2100 h, when surge testosterone production is already initiated, the testis is still highly sensitive to lack of LH, antiserum injection bringing about within 2 h a significant reduction in testosterone levels (by 69% in experimentals vs 11% in controls).

Jungle Perch Kuhlia Rupestris Fingerling Production Manual

This manual consists of written descriptions of jungle perch Kuhlia rupestris production and video material to demonstrate each of the key production steps. Video links are at the end of each major written section in the document. To activate the link use ctrl click. The videos enhance the instructive ability of this manual. The keys to producing jungle perch are:  maintaining broodstock in freshwater or low salinity water less than 5 ppt  spawning fish in full seawater at 28C  incubating eggs in full seawater. Salinities must not be less than 32 ppt  ensuring that first feed jungle perch larvae have an adequate supply of copepod nauplii  rearing larvae in full seawater under bright light  use of gentle aeration in tanks  postponing spawns until adequate densities of copepod nauplii are present in ponds  sustaining copepod blooms in ponds for at least 20 days  avoiding use of paddlewheels in ponds  supplementary feeding with Artemia salina and weaning diets from 20 days after hatch  harvesting of fingerlings or fry after they are 25-30 mm in length (50 to 60 days post hatch)  covering tanks of fingerlings with 5 mm mesh and submerging freshwater inlets to prevent jumping.

Dynamics of Circulating Concentrations of Gonadotropins and Ovarian Hormones Throughout the Menstrual Cycle in the Bonnet Monkey: Role of Inhibin A in the Regulation of Follicle-Stimulating Hormone Secretion

In higher primates, increased circulating follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) levels seen during late menstrual cycle and during menstruation has been suggested to be necessary for initiation of follicular growth, recruitment of follicles and eventually culminating in ovulation of a single follicle. With a view to establish the dynamics of circulating FSH secretion with that of inhibin A (INH A) and progesterone (P-4)secretions during the menstrual cycle, blood was collected daily from bonnet monkeys beginning day 1 of the menstrual cycle up to 35 days. Serum INH A levels were low during early follicular phase, increased significantly coinciding with the mid cycle luteinizing hormone (LH) surge to reach maximal levels during the mid luteal phase before declining at the late luteal phase, essentially paralleling the pattern Of P-4 secretion seen throughout the luteal phase. Circulating FSH levels were low during early and mid luteal phases, but progressively increased during the late luteal phase and remained high for few days after the onset of menses. In another experiment, lutectomy performed during the mid luteal phase resulted in significant decrease in INH A concentration within 2 hr (58.3 +/- 2 vs. 27.3 +/- 3 pg/mL), and a 2- to 3-fold rise in circulating FSH levels by 24 hr (0.20 +/- 0.02 vs. 0.53 +/- 0.14 ng/mL) that remained high until 48 hr postlutectomy. Systemic administration of Cetrorelix (150 mu g/kg body weight), a gonadotropin releasing hormone receptor antagonist, at mid luteal phase in monkeys led to suppression of serum INH A and P-4 concentrations 24 hr post treatment, but circulating FSH levels did not change. Administration of exogenous LH, but not FSH, significantly increased INH A concentration. The results taken together suggest a tight coupling between LH and INH A secretion and that INH A is largely responsible for maintenance of low FSH concentration seen during the luteal phase. Am. J. Primatol. 71:817-824, 2009.

Assessing the significance of climate and community factors on urban water demand

Ensuring adequate water supply to urban areas is a challenging task due to factors such as rapid urban growth, increasing water demand and climate change. In developing a sustainable water supply system, it is important to identify the dominant water demand factors for any given water supply scheme. This paper applies principal components analysis to identify the factors that dominate residential water demand using the Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia as a case study. The results show that the influence of community intervention factors (e.g. use of water efficient appliances and rainwater tanks) on water demand are among the most significant. The result also confirmed that the community intervention programmes and water pricing policy together can play a noticeable role in reducing the overall water demand. On the other hand, the influence of rainfall on water demand is found to be very limited, while temperature shows some degree of correlation with water demand. The results of this study would help water authorities to plan for effective water demand management strategies and to develop a water demand forecasting model with appropriate climatic factors to achieve sustainable water resources management. The methodology developed in this paper can be adapted to other water supply systems to identify the influential factors in water demand modelling and to devise an effective demand management strategy.