970 resultados para Statistical Method
Resumo:
A sampling oscilloscope is one of the main units in automatic pulse measurement system (APMS). The time jitter in waveform samplers is an important error source that affect the precision of data acquisition. In this paper, this kind of error is greatly reduced by using the deconvolution method. First, the probability density function (PDF) of time jitter distribution is determined by the statistical approach, then, this PDF is used as convolution kern to deconvolve with the acquired waveform data with additional averaging, and the result is the waveform data in which the effect of time jitter has been removed, and the measurement precision of APMS is greatly improved. In addition, some computer simulations are given which prove the success of the method given in this paper.
Resumo:
A precipitation downscaling method is presented using precipitation from a general circulation model (GCM) as predictor. The method extends a previous method from monthly to daily temporal resolution. The simplest form of the method corrects for biases in wet-day frequency and intensity. A more sophisticated variant also takes account of flow-dependent biases in the GCM. The method is flexible and simple to implement. It is proposed here as a correction of GCM output for applications where sophisticated methods are not available, or as a benchmark for the evaluation of other downscaling methods. Applied to output from reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP) in the region of the European Alps, the method is capable of reducing large biases in the precipitation frequency distribution, even for high quantiles. The two variants exhibit similar performances, but the ideal choice of method can depend on the GCM/reanalysis and it is recommended to test the methods in each case. Limitations of the method are found in small areas with unresolved topographic detail that influence higher-order statistics (e.g. high quantiles). When used as benchmark for three regional climate models (RCMs), the corrected reanalysis and the RCMs perform similarly in many regions, but the added value of the latter is evident for high quantiles in some small regions.
Resumo:
This letter presents an effective approach for selection of appropriate terrain modeling methods in forming a digital elevation model (DEM). This approach achieves a balance between modeling accuracy and modeling speed. A terrain complexity index is defined to represent a terrain's complexity. A support vector machine (SVM) classifies terrain surfaces into either complex or moderate based on this index associated with the terrain elevation range. The classification result recommends a terrain modeling method for a given data set in accordance with its required modeling accuracy. Sample terrain data from the lunar surface are used in constructing an experimental data set. The results have shown that the terrain complexity index properly reflects the terrain complexity, and the SVM classifier derived from both the terrain complexity index and the terrain elevation range is more effective and generic than that designed from either the terrain complexity index or the terrain elevation range only. The statistical results have shown that the average classification accuracy of SVMs is about 84.3% ± 0.9% for terrain types (complex or moderate). For various ratios of complex and moderate terrain types in a selected data set, the DEM modeling speed increases up to 19.5% with given DEM accuracy.
Resumo:
In this paper, we develop a method, termed the Interaction Distribution (ID) method, for analysis of quantitative ecological network data. In many cases, quantitative network data sets are under-sampled, i.e. many interactions are poorly sampled or remain unobserved. Hence, the output of statistical analyses may fail to differentiate between patterns that are statistical artefacts and those which are real characteristics of ecological networks. The ID method can support assessment and inference of under-sampled ecological network data. In the current paper, we illustrate and discuss the ID method based on the properties of plant-animal pollination data sets of flower visitation frequencies. However, the ID method may be applied to other types of ecological networks. The method can supplement existing network analyses based on two definitions of the underlying probabilities for each combination of pollinator and plant species: (1), pi,j: the probability for a visit made by the i’th pollinator species to take place on the j’th plant species; (2), qi,j: the probability for a visit received by the j’th plant species to be made by the i’th pollinator. The method applies the Dirichlet distribution to estimate these two probabilities, based on a given empirical data set. The estimated mean values for pi,j and qi,j reflect the relative differences between recorded numbers of visits for different pollinator and plant species, and the estimated uncertainty of pi,j and qi,j decreases with higher numbers of recorded visits.
Resumo:
The occurrence of mid-latitude windstorms is related to strong socio-economic effects. For detailed and reliable regional impact studies, large datasets of high-resolution wind fields are required. In this study, a statistical downscaling approach in combination with dynamical downscaling is introduced to derive storm related gust speeds on a high-resolution grid over Europe. Multiple linear regression models are trained using reanalysis data and wind gusts from regional climate model simulations for a sample of 100 top ranking windstorm events. The method is computationally inexpensive and reproduces individual windstorm footprints adequately. Compared to observations, the results for Germany are at least as good as pure dynamical downscaling. This new tool can be easily applied to large ensembles of general circulation model simulations and thus contribute to a better understanding of the regional impact of windstorms based on decadal and climate change projections.
Resumo:
A statistical–dynamical regionalization approach is developed to assess possible changes in wind storm impacts. The method is applied to North Rhine-Westphalia (Western Germany) using the FOOT3DK mesoscale model for dynamical downscaling and ECHAM5/OM1 global circulation model climate projections. The method first classifies typical weather developments within the reanalysis period using K-means cluster algorithm. Most historical wind storms are associated with four weather developments (primary storm-clusters). Mesoscale simulations are performed for representative elements for all clusters to derive regional wind climatology. Additionally, 28 historical storms affecting Western Germany are simulated. Empirical functions are estimated to relate wind gust fields and insured losses. Transient ECHAM5/OM1 simulations show an enhanced frequency of primary storm-clusters and storms for 2060–2100 compared to 1960–2000. Accordingly, wind gusts increase over Western Germany, reaching locally +5% for 98th wind gust percentiles (A2-scenario). Consequently, storm losses are expected to increase substantially (+8% for A1B-scenario, +19% for A2-scenario). Regional patterns show larger changes over north-eastern parts of North Rhine-Westphalia than for western parts. For storms with return periods above 20 yr, loss expectations for Germany may increase by a factor of 2. These results document the method's functionality to assess future changes in loss potentials in regional terms.
Resumo:
We investigate the initialisation of Northern Hemisphere sea ice in the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM by assimilating sea-ice concentration data. The analysis updates for concentration are given by Newtonian relaxation, and we discuss different ways of specifying the analysis updates for mean thickness. Because the conservation of mean ice thickness or actual ice thickness in the analysis updates leads to poor assimilation performance, we introduce a proportional dependence between concentration and mean thickness analysis updates. Assimilation with these proportional mean-thickness analysis updates leads to good assimilation performance for sea-ice concentration and thickness, both in identical-twin experiments and when assimilating sea-ice observations. The simulation of other Arctic surface fields in the coupled model is, however, not significantly improved by the assimilation. To understand the physical aspects of assimilation errors, we construct a simple prognostic model of the sea-ice thermodynamics, and analyse its response to the assimilation. We find that an adjustment of mean ice thickness in the analysis update is essential to arrive at plausible state estimates. To understand the statistical aspects of assimilation errors, we study the model background error covariance between ice concentration and ice thickness. We find that the spatial structure of covariances is best represented by the proportional mean-thickness analysis updates. Both physical and statistical evidence supports the experimental finding that assimilation with proportional mean-thickness updates outperforms the other two methods considered. The method described here is very simple to implement, and gives results that are sufficiently good to be used for initialising sea ice in a global climate model for seasonal to decadal predictions.
Resumo:
A method is proposed for merging different nadir-sounding climate data records using measurements from high-resolution limb sounders to provide a transfer function between the different nadir measurements. The two nadir-sounding records need not be overlapping so long as the limb-sounding record bridges between them. The method is applied to global-mean stratospheric temperatures from the NOAA Climate Data Records based on the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU), extending the SSU record forward in time to yield a continuous data set from 1979 to present, and providing a simple framework for extending the SSU record into the future using AMSU. SSU and AMSU are bridged using temperature measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), which is of high enough vertical resolution to accurately represent the weighting functions of both SSU and AMSU. For this application, a purely statistical approach is not viable since the different nadir channels are not sufficiently linearly independent, statistically speaking. The near-global-mean linear temperature trends for extended SSU for 1980–2012 are −0.63 ± 0.13, −0.71 ± 0.15 and −0.80 ± 0.17 K decade−1 (95 % confidence) for channels 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The extended SSU temperature changes are in good agreement with those from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite, with both exhibiting a cooling trend of ~ 0.6 ± 0.3 K decade−1 in the upper stratosphere from 2004 to 2012. The extended SSU record is found to be in agreement with high-top coupled atmosphere–ocean models over the 1980–2012 period, including the continued cooling over the first decade of the 21st century.
Resumo:
We report a statistical analysis of Doppler broadening coincidence data of electron-positron annihilation radiation in silicon using a (22)Na source. The Doppler broadening coincidence spectrum was fit using a model function that included positron annihilation at rest with 1s, 2s, 2p, and valence band electrons. In-flight positron annihilation was also fit. The response functions of the detectors accounted for backscattering, combinations of Compton effects, pileup, ballistic deficit, and pulse-shaping problems. The procedure allows the quantitative determination of positron annihilation with core and valence electron intensities as well as their standard deviations directly from the experimental spectrum. The results obtained for the core and valence band electron annihilation intensities were 2.56(9)% and 97.44(9)%, respectively. These intensities are consistent with published experimental data treated by conventional analysis methods. This new procedure has the advantage of allowing one to distinguish additional effects from those associated with the detection system response function. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
MCNP has stood so far as one of the main Monte Carlo radiation transport codes. Its use, as any other Monte Carlo based code, has increased as computers perform calculations faster and become more affordable along time. However, the use of Monte Carlo method to tally events in volumes which represent a small fraction of the whole system may turn to be unfeasible, if a straight analogue transport procedure (no use of variance reduction techniques) is employed and precise results are demanded. Calculations of reaction rates in activation foils placed in critical systems turn to be one of the mentioned cases. The present work takes advantage of the fixed source representation from MCNP to perform the above mentioned task in a more effective sampling way (characterizing neutron population in the vicinity of the tallying region and using it in a geometric reduced coupled simulation). An extended analysis of source dependent parameters is studied in order to understand their influence on simulation performance and on validity of results. Although discrepant results have been observed for small enveloping regions, the procedure presents itself as very efficient, giving adequate and precise results in shorter times than the standard analogue procedure. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Royal palm tree peroxidase (RPTP) is a very stable enzyme in regards to acidity, temperature, H(2)O(2), and organic solvents. Thus, RPTP is a promising candidate for developing H(2)O(2)-sensitive biosensors for diverse applications in industry and analytical chemistry. RPTP belongs to the family of class III secretory plant peroxidases, which include horseradish peroxidase isozyme C, soybean and peanut peroxidases. Here we report the X-ray structure of native RPTP isolated from royal palm tree (Roystonea regia) refined to a resolution of 1.85 angstrom. RPTP has the same overall folding pattern of the plant peroxidase superfamily, and it contains one heme group and two calcium-binding sites in similar locations. The three-dimensional structure of RPTP was solved for a hydroperoxide complex state, and it revealed a bound 2-(N-morpholino) ethanesulfonic acid molecule (MES) positioned at a putative substrate-binding secondary site. Nine N-glycosylation sites are clearly defined in the RPTP electron-density maps, revealing for the first time conformations of the glycan chains of this highly glycosylated enzyme. Furthermore, statistical coupling analysis (SCA) of the plant peroxidase superfamily was performed. This sequence-based method identified a set of evolutionarily conserved sites that mapped to regions surrounding the heme prosthetic group. The SCA matrix also predicted a set of energetically coupled residues that are involved in the maintenance of the structural folding of plant peroxidases. The combination of crystallographic data and SCA analysis provides information about the key structural elements that could contribute to explaining the unique stability of RPTP. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In this present work a method for the determination of Ca, Fe, Ga, Na, Si and Zn in alumina (Al(2)O(3)) by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP OES) with axial viewing is presented. Preliminary studies revealed intense aluminum spectral interference over the majority of elements and reaction between aluminum and quartz to form aluminosilicate, reducing drastically the lifetime of the torch. To overcome these problems alumina samples (250 mg) were dissolved with 5 mL HCl + 1.5 mLH(2)SO(4) + 1.5 mL H(2)O in a microwave oven. After complete dissolution the volume was completed to 20 mL and aluminum was precipitated as Al(OH)(3) with NH(3) (by bubbling NH(3) into the solution up to a pH similar to 8, for 10 min). The use of internal standards (Fe/Be, Ga/Dy, Zn/In and Na/Sc) was essential to obtain precise and accurate results. The reliability of the proposed method was checked by analysis of alumina certified reference material (Alumina Reduction Grade-699, NIST). The found concentrations (0.037%w(-1) CaO, 0.013% w w(-1) Fe(2)O(3), 0.012%w w(-1)Ga(2)O(3), 0.49% w w(-1) Na(2)O, 0.014% w w(-1) SiO(2) and 0.013% w w(-1) ZnO) presented no statistical differences compared to the certified values at a 95% confidence level. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
A number of recent works have introduced statistical methods for detecting genetic loci that affect phenotypic variability, which we refer to as variability-controlling quantitative trait loci (vQTL). These are genetic variants whose allelic state predicts how much phenotype values will vary about their expected means. Such loci are of great potential interest in both human and non-human genetic studies, one reason being that a detected vQTL could represent a previously undetected interaction with other genes or environmental factors. The simultaneous publication of these new methods in different journals has in many cases precluded opportunity for comparison. We survey some of these methods, the respective trade-offs they imply, and the connections between them. The methods fall into three main groups: classical non-parametric, fully parametric, and semi-parametric two-stage approximations. Choosing between alternatives involves balancing the need for robustness, flexibility, and speed. For each method, we identify important assumptions and limitations, including those of practical importance, such as their scope for including covariates and random effects. We show in simulations that both parametric methods and their semi-parametric approximations can give elevated false positive rates when they ignore mean-variance relationships intrinsic to the data generation process. We conclude that choice of method depends on the trait distribution, the need to include non-genetic covariates, and the population size and structure, coupled with a critical evaluation of how these fit with the assumptions of the statistical model.
Resumo:
Data available on continuos-time diffusions are always sampled discretely in time. In most cases, the likelihood function of the observations is not directly computable. This survey covers a sample of the statistical methods that have been developed to solve this problem. We concentrate on some recent contributions to the literature based on three di§erent approaches to the problem: an improvement of the Euler-Maruyama discretization scheme, the use of Martingale Estimating Functions and the application of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM).
Resumo:
Data available on continuous-time diffusions are always sampled discretely in time. In most cases, the likelihood function of the observations is not directly computable. This survey covers a sample of the statistical methods that have been developed to solve this problem. We concentrate on some recent contributions to the literature based on three di§erent approaches to the problem: an improvement of the Euler-Maruyama discretization scheme, the employment of Martingale Estimating Functions, and the application of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM).