Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads

In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.

QWERTY and the search for optimality

This paper shows how one of the developers of QWERTY continued to use the trade secret that underlay its development to seek further efficiency improvements after its introduction. It provides further evidence that this was the principle used to design QWERTY in the first place and adds further weight to arguments that QWERTY itself was a consequence of creative design and an integral part of a highly efficient system rather than an accident of history. This further serves to raise questions over QWERTY's forced servitude as 'paradigm case' of inferior standard in the path dependence literature. The paper also shows how complementarities in forms of intellectual property rights protection played integral roles in the development of QWERTY and the search for improvements on it, and also helped effectively conceal the source of the efficiency advantages that QWERTY helped deliver.

Efficient Competition through Cheap Talk: Competing Auctions and Competitive Search without Ex Ante Price

We consider a frictional two-sided matching market in which one side uses public cheap talk announcements so as to attract the other side. We show that if the first-price auction is adopted as the trading protocol, then cheap talk can be perfectly informative, and the resulting market outcome is efficient, constrained only by search frictions. We also show that the performance of an alternative trading protocol in the cheap-talk environment depends on the level of price dispersion generated by the protocol: If a trading protocol compresses (spreads) the distribution of prices relative to the first-price auction, then an efficient fully revealing equilibrium always (never) exists. Our results identify the settings in which cheap talk can serve as an efficient competitive instrument, in the sense that the central insights from the literature on competing auctions and competitive search continue to hold unaltered even without ex ante price commitment.

Meeting technologies and optimal trading mechanisms in competitive search markets

In a market in which sellers compete by posting mechanisms, we study how the properties of the meeting technology affect the mechanism that sellers select. In general, sellers have incentive to use mechanisms that are socially efficient. In our environment, sellers achieve this by posting an auction with a reserve price equal to their own valuation, along with a transfer that is paid by (or to) all buyers with whom the seller meets. However, we define a novel condition on meeting technologies, which we call “invariance,” and show that the transfer is equal to zero if and only if the meeting technology satisfies this condition.

Directed Search over the Life Cycle

We develop a life-cycle model of the labor market in which different worker-firm matches have different quality and the assignment of the right workers to the right firms is time consuming because of search and learning frictions. The rate at which workers move between unemployment, employment and across different firms is endogenous because search is directed and, hence, workers can choose whether to seek low-wage jobs that are easy to find or high-wage jobs that are hard to find. We calibrate our theory using data on labor market transitions aggregated across workers of different ages. We validate our theory by showing that it predicts quite well the pattern of labor market transitions for workers of different ages. Finally, we use our theory to decompose the age profiles of transition rates, wages and productivity into the effects of age variation in work-life expectancy, human capital and match quality.

Fiscal multipliers in a two-sector search and matching model

This paper evaluates the effects of policy interventions on sectoral labour markets and the aggregate economy in a business cycle model with search and matching frictions. We extend the canonical model by including capital-skill complementarity in production, labour markets with skilled and unskilled workers and on-the-job-learning (OJL) within and across skill types. We first find that, the model does a good job at matching the cyclical properties of sectoral employment and the wage-skill premium. We next find that vacancy subsidies for skilled and unskilled jobs lead to output multipliers which are greater than unity with OJL and less than unity without OJL. In contrast, the positive output effects from cutting skilled and unskilled income taxes are close to zero. Finally, we find that the sectoral and aggregate effects of vacancy subsidies do not depend on whether they are financed via public debt or distorting taxes.

The antecedents and innovation consequences of organizational search: empirical evidence for Spain

This paper examines the antecedents and innovation consequences of the methods firms adopt in organizing their search strategies. From a theoretical perspective, organizational search is described using a typology that shows how firms implement exploration and exploitation search activities that span their organizational boundaries. This typology includes three models of implementation: ambidextrous, specialized, and diversified implementation. From an empirical perspective, the paper examines the performance consequences when applying these models, and compares their capacity to produce complementarities. Additionally, since firms' choices in matters of organizational search are viewed as endogenous variables, the paper examines the drivers affecting them and identifies the importance of firms' absorptive capacity and diversified technological opportunities in determining these choices. The empirical design of the paper draws on new data for manufacturing firms in Spain, surveyed between 2003 and 2006.

The rational search for natural neolignans

A rational method of search for natural neolignans of desired structures is outlined. This involves consultation of a collection of chemical profiles of plant families. The profiles are assembled considering the biosynthetic class (in the present case lignoids), subclass (neolignans), structural types (neolignan skeleta) and relative frequency of substitutional derivatives belonging to each type (known compounds). The method is of course applicable to ani class of natural products. Its use in the case of neolignans is here selected as an exemple in view of the recently discovered antagonism towards PAF of kadsurenone, a representative of this subclass of phytochemicals. Application of the chemical profiles to phylogenetic studies is illustrated.

Chemical and pharmacological investigation of Solanum species of Brazil: a search for solasodine and other potentially useful therapeutic agents

A systematic search for solasodine, an important staring material for the partial synthesis of steroidal hormones as well as other potentially bioactive constituents of various Solanum species of Brazil has been undertaken. Thus, the fruits of S. paludosum, S. asperum, S. sessiliforum and Solanum sp. were found to contain significant amounts of solasodine. The root bark of S. paludosum which showe durare like activity yelded tomatidenol and another yet unidentified alkaloid responsible for the biological activity. The fruits of S. asperum yelded a new spirosolane alkaloid, solaparnaine. The stem bark of S. pseudo-quina showed convulsive and exitatory activity from which (25S)-isosolafloridine was identified as the active principle. In addition, the latter alkaloid was also found to show antimicrobial activity.

Is the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy improved by the use of explicit panel-based appropriateness criteria?

BACKGROUND: Increasing the appropriateness of use of upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy is important to improve quality of care while at the same time containing costs. This study explored whether detailed explicit appropriateness criteria significantly improve the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy. METHODS: Consecutive patients referred for upper GI endoscopy at 6 centers (1 university hospital, 2 district hospitals, 3 gastroenterology practices) were prospectively included over a 6-month period. After controlling for disease presentation and patient characteristics, the relationship between the appropriateness of upper GI endoscopy, as assessed by explicit Swiss criteria developed by the RAND/UCLA panel method, and the presence of relevant endoscopic lesions was analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 2088 patients (60% outpatients, 57% men) were included. Analysis was restricted to the 1681 patients referred for diagnostic upper GI endoscopy. Forty-six percent of upper GI endoscopies were judged to be appropriate, 15% uncertain, and 39% inappropriate by the explicit criteria. No cancer was found in upper GI endoscopies judged to be inappropriate. Upper GI endoscopies judged appropriate or uncertain yielded significantly more relevant lesions (60%) than did those judged to be inappropriate (37%; odds ratio 2.6: 95% CI [2.2, 3.2]). In multivariate analyses, the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy was significantly influenced by appropriateness, patient gender and age, treatment setting, and symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Upper GI endoscopies performed for appropriate indications resulted in detecting significantly more clinically relevant lesions than did those performed for inappropriate indications. In addition, no upper GI endoscopy that resulted in a diagnosis of cancer was judged to be inappropriate. The use of such criteria improves patient selection for upper GI endoscopy and can thus contribute to efforts aimed at enhancing the quality and efficiency of care. (Gastrointest Endosc 2000;52:333-41).

Tritordeum, wheat and triticale yield components under multi-local mediterranean drought conditions

The species x location interaction was of great importance in explaining the behaviour of genetic material. The study presented here shows, for the first time, the performance, under field conditions of the new tritordeum species, compared to wheat and triticale in a wide range of Mediterranean countries (Spain, Lebanon and Tunisia). The results obtained revealed that despite the diversity of environmental conditions, the main differences in yield were due to genotypes, especially to differences between species. The multi-local study with different growth conditions revealed important information about the water availability effect on yield. In the lowest yielding environments (Tunisia rainfed), Tritordeum and triticale yields were equivalent. However under better growth conditions (Spain), tritordeum yield was shown to be lower than wheat and triticale. Interestingly, when water limitation was extended during the pre-anthesis period, differences in tritordeum versus wheat-triticale yield rate were larger than when water stress occurred during anthesis. These variations were explained by the fact that kernel weight has been found as the limiting factor for yield determination in tritordeum, and a delay in the anthesis date may have been the cause for the low kernel weight and low yield under Mediterranean drought conditions. Such differences in yield between tritordeum and wheat or triticale could be explained by the fact that tritordeum is a relatively new species and far fewer resources have been devoted to its improvement when compared to wheat and triticale. Our results suggest that breeding efforts should be directed to an earlier anthesis date and a longer grain filling period. tritordeum proved to have possibilities to be grown under drought environments as a new crop, since its performance was quite close to wheat and triticale. Besides, it has qualitative added values that may improve farmers' income per unit land.

Line search multilevel optimization as computational methods for dense optical flow

We evaluate the performance of different optimization techniques developed in the context of optical flowcomputation with different variational models. In particular, based on truncated Newton methods (TN) that have been an effective approach for large-scale unconstrained optimization, we develop the use of efficient multilevel schemes for computing the optical flow. More precisely, we evaluate the performance of a standard unidirectional multilevel algorithm - called multiresolution optimization (MR/OPT), to a bidrectional multilevel algorithm - called full multigrid optimization (FMG/OPT). The FMG/OPT algorithm treats the coarse grid correction as an optimization search direction and eventually scales it using a line search. Experimental results on different image sequences using four models of optical flow computation show that the FMG/OPT algorithm outperforms both the TN and MR/OPT algorithms in terms of the computational work and the quality of the optical flow estimation.

Molecular characterisation of intermediate snail hosts and the search for resistance genes

The relationship between schistosomes and their intermediate hosts is an extremely intricate one with strains and species of the parasite depending on particular species of snail, which in turn may vary in their susceptibility to the parasites. In order to gain a better understanding of the epidemiology of the disease we have been investigating the use of molecular markers for snail identification and for studying host-parasite relationships. In this paper we will draw on examples concerning schistosomiasis in West and East Africa to illustrate how a molecular analysis can be used as part of a "total evidence" approach to characterisation of Bulinus species and provide insights into parasite transmission. Particular emphasis is given to ribosomal RNA genes (rRNA), random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPDs) and the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase I (COI). Snails resistant to infection occur naturally and there is a genetic basis for this resistance. In Biomphalaria glabrata resistance to Schistosoma mansoni is known to be a polygenic trait and we have initiated a preliminary search for snail genomic regions linked to, or involved in, resistance by using a RAPD based approach in conjunction with progeny pooling methods. We are currently characterising a variety of STSs (sequence tagged sites) associated with resistance. These can be used for local linkage and interval mapping to define genomic regions associated with the resistance trait. The development of such markers into simple dot-blot or specific PCR-based assays may have a direct and practical application for the identification of resistant snails in natural populations.

THE HIGH DIAGNOSTIC YIELD OF A GERIATRIC OUTPATIENT CLINIC

Objectives: To determine characteristics of older patients referred to a geriatric outpatient clinic; 2) to determine the prevalence of geriatric syndromes in this population; 3) to identify main recommendations made to referring primary care physicians. Design: Cross-sectional analysis Setting: Outpatient clinic of the service of geriatric medicine at the University of Lausanne Medical Center, Lausanne, Switzerland. Participants: Community-dwelling patients aged 65 and over referred to the clinic. Measurements: Demographics, social, functional and health status data, main diagnoses identified and recommendations made for primary care physicians were collected prospectively. Results: Subjects (N=206, mean age 79.7±7.6 years, 57.3% women, 48.5% living alone, 36.9% receiving formal home care) were referred by primary care physicians (76%), hospitalists (18%), or family members (7%). Main reasons for referral were request for comprehensive assessment, cognitive evaluation, and mobility assessment (45.2%, 26.2%, and 15.5%, respectively). 21.4% of patients are independent in Lawton's Instrumental ADL and 47.1% are independent in Katz's Basic ADL, and 57.3% of patients reported having fallen once or more over the last year. Overall, 76.2% of patients had gait and balance impairment, 72.8% cognitive impairment, 57.3% polypharmacy (≥6 drugs; median 6.5±3.9, IQR 4-8), 54.4% affective disorder, 48.3% osteoporosis, 45.1% urinary incontinence and 33.8% orthostatic hypotension. Polymorbidity (≥6 geriatric syndromes) was present in 58.3% of referred patients. On average, patients received 10.6±4.0 recommendations, including fall prevention interventions (85.2 % of patients: walking aid adaptation in 48.1%, vitamin D prescription in 59.7%, home hazards assessment in 59.2%, and exercise prescription in 53.4%), referral to a memory clinic (45.6%), and treatment modifications (69.9 % of all patients and 81.6% of patients with polypharmacy, mostly psychotropic drugs discontinuation). Conclusions: Polymorbidity was frequent in these older outpatients, with polypharmacy, mobility and cognitive impairments being most prevalent. Outpatient geriatric consultation is a good opportunity to identify geriatric syndromes and propose interventions to prevent or delay functional decline.