Risk, Regulation and the Reintegration of Sexual Offenders

Media reporting of and public concern about sexual offending, particularly relating to children, affects and reflects political, policy and organisational responses to those convicted of such crimes. The development of regulatory policies on sexual offending has taken place within a highly emotive and overtly politicized public and policy discourse. This chapter charts the various ways in which the risks imagined or posed by sexual offenders have been conceptualised within public discourses and regulated and managed under the legislative and organisational ‘risk paradigm.’ Ultimately, it argues that risk-based responses to sexual offending are at best uncertain in their effects and at worst counterproductive, in that they often reduce the potential for successful reintegration. In seeking to look ‘beyond risk’, the chapter also explores the usefulness of restorative and related practices in supporting sex offender reintegration aimed at the primary and secondary levels of harm prevention.

Overconfidence, sexual health awareness and sexual health risk among young female users of sexual health clinics

This study explored the patterning of young people’s sexual health competence, and how this relates to sexual health outcomes. A survey of 381 young people attending two sexual health clinics in Northern Ireland was carried out between 2009 and 2010. Latent profile analysis of self-rated decision making, self-rated sexual health knowledge, and knowledge of sexually transmitted disease questionnaire scores was used to determine typologies of sexual health competence. Analysis revealed three categories of sexual health competence and explored their association with other behaviours and social characteristics. Young people’s subjective opinion of their sexual health competency, when not matched with a corresponding knowledge of sexual health, could place people at an increased risk of poor sexual health outcomes. Greater levels of peer pressure to have sex and early sexual debut were associated with poorer sexual health knowledge. This finding warrants further investigation, as the importance of self-perceived competence for sexual health screening and education programmes are considerable.

Plasma Clusterin Levels and the rs11136000 Genotype in Individuals with Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease

Aim: Substantial evidence links atherosclerosis and Alzheimer's disease (AD). Apolipoproteins, such as apolipoprotein E, have a causal relationship with both diseases. The rs11136000 SNP within the CLU gene, which encodes clusterin (apolipoprotein J), is also associated with increased AD risk. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between plasma clusterin and the rs11136000 genotype in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and AD.

Methods: Plasma and DNA samples were collected from control, MCI and AD subjects (n=142, 111, 154, respectively). Plasma clusterin was determined by ELISA and DNA samples were genotyped for rs11136000 by TaqMan assay.

Results: Plasma clusterin levels were higher in MCI and AD subjects vs. controls (222.3 +/- 61.3 and 193.6 +/- 58.2 vs. 178.6 +/- 52.3 mu g/ml, respectively; p

Conclusion: This study examined control, MCI and AD subjects, identifying for the first time that plasma clusterin levels were influenced, not only by the presence of AD, but also the transitional stage of MCI, while rs11136000 genotype only influenced plasma clusterin levels in the control group. The increase in plasma clusterin in MCI and AD subjects may occur in response to the disease process and would be predicted to increase binding capacity for amyloid-beta peptides in plasma, enhancing their removal from the brain.

Age- and Sex-Specific Causal Effects of Adiposity on Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10(-107)) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10(-30)). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors.

Failure of a numerical quality assessment scale to identify potential risk of bias in a systematic review: a comparison study

BACKGROUND: Assessing methodological quality of primary studies is an essential component of systematic reviews. Following a systematic review which used a domain based system [United States Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF)] to assess methodological quality, a commonly used numerical rating scale (Downs and Black) was also used to evaluate the included studies and comparisons were made between quality ratings assigned using the two different methods. Both tools were used to assess the 20 randomized and quasi-randomized controlled trials examining an exercise intervention for chronic musculoskeletal pain which were included in the review. Inter-rater reliability and levels of agreement were determined using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Influence of quality on pooled effect size was examined by calculating the between group standardized mean difference (SMD).

RESULTS: Inter-rater reliability indicated at least substantial levels of agreement for the USPSTF system (ICC 0.85; 95% CI 0.66, 0.94) and Downs and Black scale (ICC 0.94; 95% CI 0.84, 0.97). Overall level of agreement between tools (ICC 0.80; 95% CI 0.57, 0.92) was also good. However, the USPSTF system identified a number of studies (n = 3/20) as "poor" due to potential risks of bias. Analysis revealed substantially greater pooled effect sizes in these studies (SMD -2.51; 95% CI -4.21, -0.82) compared to those rated as "fair" (SMD -0.45; 95% CI -0.65, -0.25) or "good" (SMD -0.38; 95% CI -0.69, -0.08).

CONCLUSIONS: In this example, use of a numerical rating scale failed to identify studies at increased risk of bias, and could have potentially led to imprecise estimates of treatment effect. Although based on a small number of included studies within an existing systematic review, we found the domain based system provided a more structured framework by which qualitative decisions concerning overall quality could be made, and was useful for detecting potential sources of bias in the available evidence.

Effect of a Web-Based Behavior Change Program on Weight Loss and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Overweight and Obese Adults at High Risk of Developing Cardiovascular Disease:Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND: Web-based programs are a potential medium for supporting weight loss because of their accessibility and wide reach. Research is warranted to determine the shorter- and longer-term effects of these programs in relation to weight loss and other health outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: The aim was to evaluate the effects of a Web-based component of a weight loss service (Imperative Health) in an overweight/obese population at risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) using a randomized controlled design and a true control group.

METHODS: A total of 65 overweight/obese adults at high risk of CVD were randomly allocated to 1 of 2 groups. Group 1 (n=32) was provided with the Web-based program, which supported positive dietary and physical activity changes and assisted in managing weight. Group 2 continued with their usual self-care (n=33). Assessments were conducted face-to-face. The primary outcome was between-group change in weight at 3 months. Secondary outcomes included between-group change in anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, lipid measurements, physical activity, and energy intake at 3, 6, and 12 months. Interviews were conducted to explore participants' views of the Web-based program.

RESULTS: Retention rates for the intervention and control groups at 3 months were 78% (25/32) vs 97% (32/33), at 6 months were 66% (21/32) vs 94% (31/33), and at 12 months were 53% (17/32) vs 88% (29/33). Intention-to-treat analysis, using baseline observation carried forward imputation method, revealed that the intervention group lost more weight relative to the control group at 3 months (mean -3.41, 95% CI -4.70 to -2.13 kg vs mean -0.52, 95% CI -1.55 to 0.52 kg, P<.001), at 6 months (mean -3.47, 95% CI -4.95 to -1.98 kg vs mean -0.81, 95% CI -2.23 to 0.61 kg, P=.02), but not at 12 months (mean -2.38, 95% CI -3.48 to -0.97 kg vs mean -1.80, 95% CI -3.15 to -0.44 kg, P=.77). More intervention group participants lost ≥5% of their baseline body weight at 3 months (34%, 11/32 vs 3%, 1/33, P<.001) and 6 months (41%, 13/32 vs 18%, 6/33, P=.047), but not at 12 months (22%, 7/32 vs 21%, 7/33, P=.95) versus control group. The intervention group showed improvements in total cholesterol, triglycerides, and adopted more positive dietary and physical activity behaviors for up to 3 months verus control; however, these improvements were not sustained.

CONCLUSIONS: Although the intervention group had high attrition levels, this study provides evidence that this Web-based program can be used to initiate clinically relevant weight loss and lower CVD risk up to 3-6 months based on the proportion of intervention group participants losing ≥5% of their body weight versus control group. It also highlights a need for augmenting Web-based programs with further interventions, such as in-person support to enhance engagement and maintain these changes.

Digital Dermatitis in Dairy Cows: A Review of Risk Factors and Potential Sources of Between-Animal Variation in Susceptibility

Digital dermatitis (DD) is a bacterial disease that primarily affects the skin on the heels of cattle. It is a major cause of lameness in dairy cows and a significant problem for the dairy industry in many countries, causing reduced animal welfare and economic loss. A wide range of infection levels has been found on infected farms, prompting investigations into both farm level and animal level risk factors for DD occurrence. There also appears to be individual variation between animals in susceptibility to the disease. The identification of factors affecting individual variation in susceptibility to DD might allow changes in breeding policies or herd management which could be used to reduce DD prevalence. Factors mentioned in the literature as possibly influencing individual variation in susceptibility to DD include physical factors such as hoof conformation and properties of the skin, physiological factors such as the efficacy of the immune response, and behavioural factors such as standing half in cubicles. Further work is required to determine the influence of these factors, identify the genetic basis of variation, clarify the level of heritability of DD susceptibility and to determine how this is correlated with production and health traits currently used in breeding programmes.

Understanding Risk: Contributions from the Journal of Risk and Governance

During recent years, news headlines have been rife with criticisms of the risk management practices of public and private sector entities. These criticisms have often been accompanied by calls for greater transparency in the way government entities manage risks and communicate dangers to the public. Similarly, in the private sector, the internationalisation of economic activity has heightened concerns over the potential adverse implications of mismanagement and financial scandals, and has led to calls for greater regulation and supervision. While the responses of public sector agencies and private sector actors to these challenges have differed, they share a common acknowledgement that effective governance relies on the pro-active identification, assessment, and management of risks as well as appropriate regulatory frameworks.

This edited book covers a number of divergent topics illustrating the emergence of several novel themes in the area of economic and social risks. As a communality, these novel themes relate to the complexity in which human activity in this late stage of capitalist development is embedded. This risk-generating complexity, in turn, can be observed at several levels, including workplace hazards, governance problems within the private sector or the intersection between public and private, and in relation to the economic risks faced by larger entities such as national governments.

Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms

Rationale, aims and objectives: This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. 

Methods: Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. 

Results: Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). 

Conclusions: Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized.

UK Public Private Partnerships and the Credit Crunch: A Case of Risk Contagion?

During the past twenty years, the UK has relied heavily on Public Private Partnerships (PPP) and especially the Private Finance Initiative in the procurement of infrastructure and services. Discussing the causes of the credit crunch and its effects on PPP, this paper notes that the provision of new public sector infrastructure and related services has been adversely affected by the impact of the credit crunch on Private Finance Initiatives (PFIs). These problems have arisen primarily from the unwillingness of commercial banks to replace collapsed PFI bond financing unless new PFI contracts reduce financial risks; which, in turn, is likely to increase the cost of these projects to the public sector. Additional financial strains have arisen for the UK government from the need to bail out collapsed PFI projects. Overall we find evidence that the UK commitment to PFI has not only increased immediate fiscal pressures on the UK when these have become least palatable, but has also created fiscal vulnerabilities at local and national levels which are likely to hamper the country’s ability to launch counter-cyclical responses to the ongoing crisis.

Can I Count on Getting Better? Association between Math Anxiety and Poorer Understanding of Medical Risk Reductions

BACKGROUND: Lower numerical ability is associated with poorer understanding of health statistics, such as risk reductions of medical treatment. For many people, despite good numeracy skills, math provokes anxiety that impedes an ability to evaluate numerical information. Math-anxious individuals also report less confidence in their ability to perform math tasks. We hypothesized that, independent of objective numeracy, math anxiety would be associated with poorer responding and lower confidence when calculating risk reductions of medical treatments.

METHODS: Objective numeracy was assessed using an 11-item objective numeracy scale. A 13-item self-report scale was used to assess math anxiety. In experiment 1, participants were asked to interpret the baseline risk of disease and risk reductions associated with treatment options. Participants in experiment 2 were additionally provided a graphical display designed to facilitate the processing of math information and alleviate effects of math anxiety. Confidence ratings were provided on a 7-point scale.

RESULTS: Individuals of higher objective numeracy were more likely to respond correctly to baseline risks and risk reductions associated with treatment options and were more confident in their interpretations. Individuals who scored high in math anxiety were instead less likely to correctly interpret the baseline risks and risk reductions and were less confident in their risk calculations as well as in their assessments of the effectiveness of treatment options. Math anxiety predicted confidence levels but not correct responding when controlling for objective numeracy. The graphical display was most effective in increasing confidence among math-anxious individuals.

CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that math anxiety is associated with poorer medical risk interpretation but is more strongly related to confidence in interpretations.

Minimal residual disease detection in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia patients at multiple time-points reveals high levels of concordance between molecular and immunophenotypic approaches

In this single centre study of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) patients treated on the Medical Research Council UKALL 97/99 protocols, it was determined that minimal residual disease (MRD) detected by real time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RQ-PCR) and 3-colour flow cytometry (FC) displayed high levels of qualitative concordance when evaluated at multiple time-points during treatment (93.38%), and a combined use of both approaches allowed a multi time-point evaluation of MRD kinetics for 90% (53/59) of the initial cohort. At diagnosis, MRD markers with sensitivity of at least 0.01% were identified by RQ-PCR detection of fusion gene transcripts, IGH/TRG rearrangements, and FC. Using a combined RQ-PCR and FC approach, the evaluation of 367 follow-up BM samples revealed that the detection of MRD >1% at Day 15 (P = 0.04), >0.01% at the end of induction (P = 0.02), >0.01% at the end of consolidation (P = 0.01), >0.01% prior to the first delayed intensification (P = 0.01), and >0.1% prior to the second delayed intensification and continued maintenance (P = 0.001) were all associated with relapse and, based on early time-points (end of induction and consolidation) a significant log-rank trend (P = 0.0091) was noted between survival curves for patients stratified into high, intermediate and low-risk MRD groups.

Wilms' tumor gene 1 (WT1) expression in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia:a wide range of WT1 expression levels, its impact on prognosis and minimal residual disease monitoring

Wilms' tumor gene 1 (WT1) is overexpressed in the majority (70-90%) of acute leukemias and has been identified as an independent adverse prognostic factor, a convenient minimal residual disease (MRD) marker and potential therapeutic target in acute leukemia. We examined WT1 expression patterns in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), where its clinical implication remains unclear. Using a real-time quantitative PCR designed according to Europe Against Cancer Program recommendations, we evaluated WT1 expression in 125 consecutively enrolled patients with childhood ALL (106 BCP-ALL, 19 T-ALL) and compared it with physiologic WT1 expression in normal and regenerating bone marrow (BM). In childhood B-cell precursor (BCP)-ALL, we detected a wide range of WT1 levels (5 logs) with a median WT1 expression close to that of normal BM. WT1 expression in childhood T-ALL was significantly higher than in BCP-ALL (P<0.001). Patients with MLL-AF4 translocation showed high WT1 overexpression (P<0.01) compared to patients with other or no chromosomal aberrations. Older children (> or =10 years) expressed higher WT1 levels than children under 10 years of age (P<0.001), while there was no difference in WT1 expression in patients with peripheral blood leukocyte count (WBC) > or =50 x 10(9)/l and lower. Analysis of relapsed cases (14/125) indicated that an abnormal increase or decrease in WT1 expression was associated with a significantly increased risk of relapse (P=0.0006), and this prognostic impact of WT1 was independent of other main risk factors (P=0.0012). In summary, our study suggests that WT1 expression in childhood ALL is very variable and much lower than in AML or adult ALL. WT1, thus, will not be a useful marker for MRD detection in childhood ALL, however, it does represent a potential independent risk factor in childhood ALL. Interestingly, a proportion of childhood ALL patients express WT1 at levels below the normal physiological BM WT1 expression, and this reduced WT1 expression appears to be associated with a higher risk of relapse.

Low alanine aminotransferase levels and higher number of cardiovascular events in people with Type 2 diabetes: analysis of the Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD) study.

AIMS: To determine whether alanine aminotransferase or gamma-glutamyltransferase levels, as markers of liver health and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, might predict cardiovascular events in people with Type 2 diabetes.

METHODS: Data from the Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes study were analysed to examine the relationship between liver enzymes and incident cardiovascular events (non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary and other cardiovascular death, coronary or carotid revascularization) over 5 years.

RESULTS: Alanine aminotransferase level had a linear inverse relationship with the first cardiovascular event occurring in participants during the study period. After adjustment, for every 1 sd higher baseline alanine aminotransferase value (13.2 U/l), the risk of a cardiovascular event was 7% lower (95% CI 4-13; P=0.02). Participants with alanine aminotransferase levels below and above the reference range 8-41 U/l for women and 9-59 U/l for men, had hazard ratios for a cardiovascular event of 1.86 (95% CI 1.12-3.09) and 0.65 (95% CI 0.49-0.87), respectively (P=0.001). No relationship was found for gamma-glutamyltransferase.

CONCLUSIONS: The data may indicate that in people with Type 2 diabetes, which is associated with higher alanine aminotransferase levels because of prevalent non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, a low alanine aminotransferase level is a marker of hepatic or systemic frailty rather than health. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Urban/rural variation in the influence of widowhood on mortality risk

Death of a spouse is associated with increased mortality risk for the surviving partner (the widowhood effect), although the mechanisms driving the effect are poorly understood. After acute stress and grief have dissipated, mortality risk may be increased by loss of emotional and instrumental support for daily living and so we investigated whether social support at both the household and community levels moderated the influence of spousal bereavement on mortality risk.

We assembled death records from the Northern Ireland Mortality Study spanning almost nine years for a prospective cohort of 296,125 married couples enumerated in the 2001 Census. Presence of other adults within the household and urban/rural residence were used as measures of support at the household and community levels, with informal social support perceived to be strongest in rural areas. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the effects of widowhood, sex, household composition and urban/intermediate/rural residence on all-cause mortality.

Elevated mortality risk during the first six months of widowhood was found in all areas and for both sexes (range of hazard ratios 1.24, 1.57). After more than six months the effect among men was attenuated in rural but not urban areas (HRs and 95%CIs 1.09 [0.99, 1.21] and 1.35 [1.26, 1.44] respectively). Among women the effect was attenuated in both rural and urban areas (HRs 1.06 [0.96, 1.17] and 1.09 [1.01, 1.17]). Mortality risk post bereavement was not associated with presence of other adults in the household.

We found some support for the hypothesis that informal social support is beneficial for reducing the impacts of spousal loss. Rural residence had a positive effect especially among men but presence of other adults in the household had no effect. The reasons for this discrepancy require further investigation and we identify men in urban areas as being at greatest risk in the long term.