Discovering knowledge structures in mind maps of mental health risks

This thesis addressed the problem of risk analysis in mental healthcare, with respect to the GRiST project at Aston University. That project provides a risk-screening tool based on the knowledge of 46 experts, captured as mind maps that describe relationships between risks and patterns of behavioural cues. Mind mapping, though, fails to impose control over content, and is not considered to formally represent knowledge. In contrast, this thesis treated GRiSTs mind maps as a rich knowledge base in need of refinement; that process drew on existing techniques for designing databases and knowledge bases. Identifying well-defined mind map concepts, though, was hindered by spelling mistakes, and by ambiguity and lack of coverage in the tools used for researching words. A novel use of the Edit Distance overcame those problems, by assessing similarities between mind map texts, and between spelling mistakes and suggested corrections. That algorithm further identified stems, the shortest text string found in related word-forms. As opposed to existing approaches’ reliance on built-in linguistic knowledge, this thesis devised a novel, more flexible text-based technique. An additional tool, Correspondence Analysis, found patterns in word usage that allowed machines to determine likely intended meanings for ambiguous words. Correspondence Analysis further produced clusters of related concepts, which in turn drove the automatic generation of novel mind maps. Such maps underpinned adjuncts to the mind mapping software used by GRiST; one such new facility generated novel mind maps, to reflect the collected expert knowledge on any specified concept. Mind maps from GRiST are stored as XML, which suggested storing them in an XML database. In fact, the entire approach here is ”XML-centric”, in that all stages rely on XML as far as possible. A XML-based query language allows user to retrieve information from the mind map knowledge base. The approach, it was concluded, will prove valuable to mind mapping in general, and to detecting patterns in any type of digital information.

Evaluating the Appropriateness of Project Delivery Systems for Different Trenchless Methods

Trenchless methods have been considered to be a viable solution for pipeline projects in urban areas. Their applicability in pipeline projects is expected to increase with the rapid advancements in technology and emerging concerns regarding social costs related to trenching methods. Selecting appropriate project delivery system (PDS) is a key to the success of trenchless projects. To ensure success of the project, the selected project delivery should be tailored to trenchless project specific characteristics and owner needs, since the effectiveness of project delivery systems differs based on different project characteristics and owners requirements. Since different trenchless methods have specific characteristics such rate of installation, lengths of installation, and accuracy, the same project delivery systems may not be equally effective for different methods. The intent of this paper is to evaluate the appropriateness of different PDS for different trenchless methods. PDS are examined through a structured decision-making process called Fuzzy Delivery System Selection Model (FDSSM). The process of incorporating the impacts of: (a) the characteristics of trenchless projects and (b) owners’ needs in the FDSSM is performed by collecting data using questionnaires deployed to professionals involved in the trenchless industry in order to determine the importance of delivery systems selection attributes for different trenchless methods, and then analyzing this data. The sensitivity of PDS rankings with respect to trenchless methods is considered in order to evaluate whether similar project delivery systems are equally effective in different trenchless methods. The effectiveness of PDS with respect to attributes is defined as follows: a project delivery system is most effective with respect to an attribute (e.g., ability to control growth in costs ) if there is no project delivery system that is more effective than that PDS. The results of this study may assist trenchless project owners to select the appropriate PDS for the trenchless method selected.

Public perception of carbon capture and storage in relation to hydraulic fracturing: content analyses, survey results, and policy proposals

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can contribute significantly to addressing the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions problem. Despite widespread political support, CCS remains unknown to the general public. Public perception researchers have found that, when asked, the public is relatively unfamiliar with CCS yet many individuals voice specific safety concerns regarding the technology. We believe this leads many stakeholders conflate CCS with the better-known and more visible technology hydraulic fracturing (fracking). We support this with content analysis of media coverage, web analytics, and public lobbying records. Furthermore, we present results from a survey of United States residents. This first-of-its-kind survey assessed participants’ knowledge, opinions and support of CCS and fracking technologies. The survey showed that participants had more knowledge of fracking than CCS, and that knowledge of fracking made participants less willing to support CCS projects. Additionally, it showed that participants viewed the two technologies as having similar risks and similar risk intensities. In the CCS stakeholder literature, judgment and decision-making (JDM) frameworks are noticeably absent, and public perception is not discussed using any cognitive biases as a way of understanding or explaining irrational decisions, yet these survey results show evidence of both anchoring bias and the ambiguity effect. Public acceptance of CCS is essential for a national low-carbon future plan. In conclusion, we propose changes in communications and incentives as programs to increase support of CCS.

An Assessment of the Performances of Several Univariate Tests of Normality

The importance of checking the normality assumption in most statistical procedures especially parametric tests cannot be over emphasized as the validity of the inferences drawn from such procedures usually depend on the validity of this assumption. Numerous methods have been proposed by different authors over the years, some popular and frequently used, others, not so much. This study addresses the performance of eighteen of the available tests for different sample sizes, significance levels, and for a number of symmetric and asymmetric distributions by conducting a Monte-Carlo simulation. The results showed that considerable power is not achieved for symmetric distributions when sample size is less than one hundred and for such distributions, the kurtosis test is most powerful provided the distribution is leptokurtic or platykurtic. The Shapiro-Wilk test remains the most powerful test for asymmetric distributions. We conclude that different tests are suitable under different characteristics of alternative distributions.

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based approach to consequence assessment of accidental release of hydrocarbon during storage and transportation

This thesis investigated the risk of accidental release of hydrocarbons during transportation and storage. Transportation of hydrocarbons from an offshore platform to processing units through subsea pipelines involves risk of release due to pipeline leakage resulting from corrosion, plastic deformation caused by seabed shakedown or damaged by contact with drifting iceberg. The environmental impacts of hydrocarbon dispersion can be severe. Overall safety and economic concerns of pipeline leakage at subsea environment are immense. A large leak can be detected by employing conventional technology such as, radar, intelligent pigging or chemical tracer but in a remote location like subsea or arctic, a small chronic leak may be undetected for a period of time. In case of storage, an accidental release of hydrocarbon from the storage tank could lead pool fire; further it could escalate to domino effects. This chain of accidents may lead to extremely severe consequences. Analyzing past accident scenarios it is observed that more than half of the industrial domino accidents involved fire as a primary event, and some other factors for instance, wind speed and direction, fuel type and engulfment of the compound. In this thesis, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach is taken to model the subsea pipeline leak and the pool fire from a storage tank. A commercial software package ANSYS FLUENT Workbench 15 is used to model the subsea pipeline leakage. The CFD simulation results of four different types of fluids showed that the static pressure and pressure gradient along the axial length of the pipeline have a sharp signature variation near the leak orifice at steady state condition. Transient simulation is performed to obtain the acoustic signature of the pipe near leak orifice. The power spectral density (PSD) of acoustic signal is strong near the leak orifice and it dissipates as the distance and orientation from the leak orifice increase. The high-pressure fluid flow generates more noise than the low-pressure fluid flow. In order to model the pool fire from the storage tank, ANSYS CFX Workbench 14 is used. The CFD results show that the wind speed has significant contribution on the behavior of pool fire and its domino effects. The radiation contours are also obtained from CFD post processing, which can be applied for risk analysis. The outcome of this study will be helpful for better understanding of the domino effects of pool fire in complex geometrical settings of process industries. The attempt to reduce and prevent risks is discussed based on the results obtained from the numerical simulations of the numerical models.

Personalized absolute benefit of statin treatment for primary or secondary prevention of vascular disease in individual elderly patients

Objective: To estimate the absolute treatment effect of statin therapy on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular death) for the individual patient aged C70 years. Methods: Prediction models for MACE were derived in patients aged C70 years with (n = 2550) and without (n = 3253) vascular disease from the ‘‘PROspective Study of Pravastatin in Elderly at Risk’’ (PROSPER) trial and validated in the ‘‘Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease’’ (SMART) cohort study (n = 1442) and the ‘‘Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Lipid Lowering Arm’’ (ASCOT-LLA) trial (n = 1893), respectively, using competing risk analysis. Prespecified predictors were various clinical characteristics including statin treatment. Individual absolute risk reductions (ARRs) for MACE in 5 and 10 years were estimated by subtracting ontreatment from off-treatment risk. Results: Individual ARRs were higher in elderly patients with vascular disease [5-year ARRs: median 5.1 %, interquartile range (IQR) 4.0–6.2 %, 10-year ARRs: median 7.8 %, IQR 6.8–8.6 %] than in patients without vascular disease (5-year ARRs: median 1.7 %, IQR 1.3–2.1 %, 10-year ARRs: 2.9 %, IQR 2.3–3.6 %). Ninetyeight percent of patients with vascular disease had a 5-year ARR C2.0 %, compared to 31 % of patients without vascular disease. Conclusions: With a multivariable prediction model the absolute treatment effect of a statin on MACE for individual elderly patients with and without vascular disease can be quantified. Because of high ARRs, treating all patients is more beneficial than prediction-based treatment for secondary prevention of MACE. For primary prevention of MACE, the prediction model can be used to identify those patients who benefit meaningfully from statin therapy.

Money Market Funds in the EU and US, Regulations and Practice

This is the first comprehensive analysis of the regulation of money market funds in the EU and US at both the theoretical and practical levels.  Its unique mutli-disciplinary approach provides a rigorous framework for comparative analysis and expert opinions on complex regulations that will help practitioners with decisions on portfolio management and in solving regulatory compliance issues. The theoretical framework has unique cases and examples and includes checklists to assist with the practice of fund management and legal risk analysis.

Preface

This is the preface to the first comprehensive analysis of the regulation of money market funds in the EU and US at both the theoretical and practical levels. Its unique mutli-disciplinary approach provides a rigorous framework for comparative analysis and expert opinions on complex regulations that will help practitioners with decisions on portfolio management and in solving regulatory compliance issues. The theoretical framework has unique cases and examples and includes checklists to assist with the practice of fund management and legal risk analysis.

Introduction

This is the introductory chapter to the first comprehensive analysis of the regulation of money market funds in the EU and US at both the theoretical and practical levels. Its unique mutli-disciplinary approach provides a rigorous framework for comparative analysis and expert opinions on complex regulations that will help practitioners with decisions on portfolio management and in solving regulatory compliance issues. The theoretical framework has unique cases and examples and includes checklists to assist with the practice of fund management and legal risk analysis.

Assessing the resilience of water supply systems in Oman

Water systems in the Sultanate of Oman are inevitably exposed to varied threats and hazards due to both natural and man-made hazards. Natural disasters, especially tropical cyclone Gonu in 2007, cause immense damage to water supply systems in Oman. At the same time water loss from leaks is a major operational problem. This research developed an integrated approach to identify and rank the risks to the water sources, transmission pipelines and distribution networks in Oman and suggests appropriate mitigation measures. The system resilience was evaluated and an emergency response plan for the water supplies developed. The methodology involved mining the data held by the water supply utility for risk and resilience determination and operational data to support calculations of non-revenue water. Risk factors were identified, ranked and scored at a stakeholder workshop and the operational information required was principally gathered from interviews. Finally, an emergency response plan was developed by evaluating the risk and resilience factors. The risk analysis and assessment used a Coarse Risk Analysis (CRA) approach and risk scores were generated using a simple risk matrix based on WHO recommendations. The likelihoods and consequences of a wide range of hazardous events were identified through a key workshop and subsequent questionnaires. The thesis proposes a method of translating the detailed risk evaluations into resilience scores through a methodology used in transportation networks. A water audit indicated that the percentage of NRW in Oman is greater than 35% which is similar to other Gulf countries but high internationally. The principal strategy for managing NRW used in the research was the AWWA water audit method which includes free to use software and was found to be easy to apply in Oman. The research showed that risks to the main desalination processes can be controlled but the risk due to feed water quality might remain high even after implementing mitigation measures because the intake is close to an oil port with a significant risk of oil contamination and algal blooms. The most severe risks to transmission mains were found to be associated with pipe rather than pump failure. The systems in Oman were found to be moderately resilient, the resilience of desalination plants reasonably high but the transmission mains and pumping stations are very vulnerable. The integrated strategy developed in this study has a wide applicability, particularly in the Gulf area, which may have risks from exceptional events and will be experiencing NRW. Other developing countries may also experience such risks but with different magnitudes and the risk evaluation tables could provide a useful format for further work.

Orientation de l’effort des tests unitaires dans les systèmes orientés objet : une approche basée sur les métriques logicielles

Les logiciels actuels sont de grandes tailles, complexes et critiques. Le besoin de qualité exige beaucoup de tests, ce qui consomme de grandes quantités de ressources durant le développement et la maintenance de ces systèmes. Différentes techniques permettent de réduire les coûts liés aux activités de test. Notre travail s’inscrit dans ce cadre, est a pour objectif d’orienter l’effort de test vers les composants logiciels les plus à risque à l’aide de certains attributs du code source. À travers plusieurs démarches empiriques menées sur de grands logiciels open source, développés avec la technologie orientée objet, nous avons identifié et étudié les métriques qui caractérisent l’effort de test unitaire sous certains angles. Nous avons aussi étudié les liens entre cet effort de test et les métriques des classes logicielles en incluant les indicateurs de qualité. Les indicateurs de qualité sont une métrique synthétique, que nous avons introduite dans nos travaux antérieurs, qui capture le flux de contrôle ainsi que différentes caractéristiques du logiciel. Nous avons exploré plusieurs techniques permettant d’orienter l’effort de test vers des composants à risque à partir de ces attributs de code source, en utilisant des algorithmes d’apprentissage automatique. En regroupant les métriques logicielles en familles, nous avons proposé une approche basée sur l’analyse du risque des classes logicielles. Les résultats que nous avons obtenus montrent les liens entre l’effort de test unitaire et les attributs de code source incluant les indicateurs de qualité, et suggèrent la possibilité d’orienter l’effort de test à l’aide des métriques.

Tratamentos de superfície em rolhas de cortiça

Este trabalho foi desenvolvido na empresa Amorim & Irmãos, SA e teve dois objectivos fundamentais. O primeiro centrou-se na análise do processo de tratamento de superfície das rolhas, procurando um produto alternativo ao actualmente implementado na empresa e a sua optimização. O segundo objectivo foi a elaboração de um novo método de determinação da absorção em garrafa, que permitisse a sua determinação sem o conhecimento da massa inicial da rolha. Para a concretização do primeiro objectivo foram estudados doze produtos químicos em comparação com o actualmente utilizado, em que o objectivo foi obter-se forças de extracção entre 15 e 20 daN. Após realização do tratamento de superfície para cada produto foram realizados vários testes laboratoriais, nomeadamente: forças de extracção, vedação em tubo, absorção em garrafa, capilaridade, análise de risco à quantidade de produto adicionado e análise de risco ao tempo de distribuição do tratamento. Após análise global dos resultados obtidos verificou-se que o produto T13, embora apresente forças de extracção no limite inferior ao desejado possui uma boa estabilização. Os produtos T5 e T6 são bons alternativos ao produto actualmente implementado (T8), embora seja necessário ter alguns cuidados no seu manuseamento. O produto T5 como foi considerado mau no teste da absorção em garrafa não poderá ser utilizado para mercados mais distantes (EUA, Austrália e África do Sul) devido ao risco de ocorrência de migração de vinho através da rolha de cortiça. O produto T6 como apresentou um comportamento irregular na análise de risco à quantidade de produto adicionado, e na análise de risco à distribuição de produto, deve-se ter muita atenção à quantidade inserida no tambor assim como o tempo de distribuição. Para a concretização do segundo objectivo foi determinada a absorção em garrafa pelo método actual e comparou-se com o novo método. Apesar do desvio padrão ser de aproximadamente 0,85, pode-se afirmar que o novo método de determinação da absorção em garrafa é um método eficaz que pode ser aprovado pela empresa. Desta forma, foi possível solucionar esta questão e permitir ao laboratório de controlo de qualidade determinar a absorção em garrafa de garrafas de vinho provenientes de clientes.

Análise de riscos toxicológicos e ambientais na exposição ocupacional aos resíduos de armas de fogo (GSR/ firing ranges): uma proposta de normalização

Tese (Doutorado em Tecnologia Nuclear)