Future of Newspaper Business Models in Finland

The purpose of this Master’s thesis was to study the business model development in Finnish newspaper industry during the next then years through scenario planning. The objective was to see how will the business models develop amidst the many changes in the industry, what factors are affecting the change, what are the implications of these changes for the players in the industry and how should the Finnish newspaper companies evolve in order to succeed in the future. In this thesis the business model change is studied based on all the elements of business models, as it was discovered that the industry is too often focusing on changes in only few of those elements and a more broader view can provide valuable information for the companies. The results revealed that the industry is affected by many changes during the next ten years. Scenario planning provides a good tool for analyzing this change and for developing valuable options for businesses. After conducting series of interviews and discovering forces affecting the change, four different scenarios were developed centered on the role that newspaper will take and the level at which they are providing the content in the future. These scenarios indicated that there are varieties of options in the way the business models may develop and that companies should start making decisions proactively in order to succeed. As the business model elements are interdepended, changes made in the other elements will affect the whole model, making these decisions about the role and level of content important for the companies. In the future, it is likely that the Finnish newspaper industry will include many different kinds of business models, some of which can be drastically different from the current ones and some of which can still be similar, but take better into account the new kind of media environment.

Fuzzy expert system in the prediction of neonatal resuscitation

In view of the importance of anticipating the occurrence of critical situations in medicine, we propose the use of a fuzzy expert system to predict the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation efforts in the delivery room. This system relates the maternal medical, obstetric and neonatal characteristics to the clinical conditions of the newborn, providing a risk measurement of need of advanced neonatal resuscitation measures. It is structured as a fuzzy composition developed on the basis of the subjective perception of danger of nine neonatologists facing 61 antenatal and intrapartum clinical situations which provide a degree of association with the risk of occurrence of perinatal asphyxia. The resulting relational matrix describes the association between clinical factors and risk of perinatal asphyxia. Analyzing the inputs of the presence or absence of all 61 clinical factors, the system returns the rate of risk of perinatal asphyxia as output. A prospectively collected series of 304 cases of perinatal care was analyzed to ascertain system performance. The fuzzy expert system presented a sensitivity of 76.5% and specificity of 94.8% in the identification of the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation measures, considering a cut-off value of 5 on a scale ranging from 0 to 10. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93. The identification of risk situations plays an important role in the planning of health care. These preliminary results encourage us to develop further studies and to refine this model, which is intended to implement an auxiliary system able to help health care staff to make decisions in perinatal care.

Gene expression profiling analysis of lung adenocarcinoma

The present study screened potential genes related to lung adenocarcinoma, with the aim of further understanding disease pathogenesis. The GSE2514 dataset including 20 lung adenocarcinoma and 19 adjacent normal tissue samples from 10 patients with lung adenocarcinoma aged 45-73 years was downloaded from Gene Expression Omnibus. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between the two groups were screened using the t-test. Potential gene functions were predicted using functional and pathway enrichment analysis, and protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks obtained from the STRING database were constructed with Cytoscape. Module analysis of PPI networks was performed through MCODE in Cytoscape. In total, 535 upregulated and 465 downregulated DEGs were identified. These included ATP5D, UQCRC2, UQCR11 and genes encoding nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NADH), which are mainly associated with mitochondrial ATP synthesis coupled electron transport, and which were enriched in the oxidative phosphorylation pathway. Other DEGs were associated with DNA replication (PRIM1, MCM3, and RNASEH2A), cell surface receptor-linked signal transduction and the enzyme-linked receptor protein signaling pathway (MAPK1, STAT3, RAF1, and JAK1), and regulation of the cytoskeleton and phosphatidylinositol signaling system (PIP5K1B, PIP5K1C, and PIP4K2B). Our findings suggest that DEGs encoding subunits of NADH, PRIM1, MCM3, MAPK1, STAT3, RAF1, and JAK1 might be associated with the development of lung adenocarcinoma.

Risk Assessment of Modern Landfill Structures in Finland

The purpose of this thesis was to investigate environmental permits of landfills with respect to the appropriateness of risk assessments focusing on contaminant migration, structures capable to protect the environment, waste and leachate management and existing environmental impacts of landfills. According to the requirements, a risk assessment is always required to demonstrate compliance with environmental protection requirements if the environmental permit decision deviates from the set requirements. However, there is a reason to doubt that all relevant risk factors are identified in current risk assessment practices in order to protect people end environment. In this dissertation, risk factors were recognized in 12 randomly selected landfills. Based on this analysis, a structural risk assessment method was created. The method was verified with two case examples. Several development needs were found in the risk assessments of the environmental permit decisions. The risk analysis equations used in the decisions did not adequately take into account all the determining factors like waste prospects, total risk quantification or human delineated factors. Instead of focusing on crucial factors, the landfill environmental protection capability is simply expressed via technical factors like hydraulic conductivity. In this thesis, it could be shown, that using adequate risk assessment approaches the most essential environmental impacts can be taken into account by consideration of contaminant transport mechanisms, leachate effects, and artificial landfill structures. The developed structural risk analysing (SRA) method shows, that landfills structures could be designed in a more cost-efficient way taking advantage of recycled or by-products. Additionally, the research results demonstrate that the environmental protection requirements of landfills should be updated to correspond to the capability to protect the environment instead of the current simplified requirements related to advective transport only.

Emergence of normative beliefs legitimizing antisocial behaviour in adolescents : the roles of monitoring, attachment, and temperament /

Beliefs about the rightness or wrongness of engaging in various antisocial acts, referred to here as nonnative beliefs legitimizing antisocial behaviour (nblab), have been shown to playa role in the emergence oflater antisocial behaviour. The current study represented an attempt to understand whether parental monitoring and parent-child attachment have differential relationships with these antisocial nonnative beliefs in adolescents of different temperaments. The participants, 7135 adolescents in 25 high schools (ages 10- 18 years, M = 15.7) completed a wide-ranging questionnaire as part of the broad Youth Lifestyle Choices - Community University Research Alliance project, whose goal is to identify and describe the major developmental pathways of risk behaviours and resilience in youth. Two aspects of monitoring (monitoring knowledge and surveillance/tracking), attachment security, and two measures of temperament (activity level and approach) were examined for main effects and in interactions as predictors of adolescent nonnative beliefs. All of these measures were based on adolescent self-ratings on either 3- or 4-point Likert-type scales. Several important results emerged from the study. Males were higher than females in nblab; parental monitoring knowledge and adolescent attachment security were negatively related to nblab; and temperamental activity level was positively related. Monitoring knowledge, the strongest of the predictors, was much more strongly related to nonnative beliefs than was parental surveillance/tracking, supporting the contention that it is how much parents actually know, and not their surveillance efforts, that predict adolescent nonnative beliefs. A surprising finding that is of the utmost importance was that, although several of the interactions tested were significant, none were considered to be of a meaningful magnitude (defined as sr^ > .01). The current study supported the suggestion that normative beliefs legitimizing antisocial behaviour are multiply determined, and the results were discussed with respect to the observed differential relations of parental monitoring, parent-child attachment, temperament, age, and gender to antisocial normative beliefs in adolescents. Also discussed were the need to test other parenting, temperament, and other variables that may be involved in the development of nblab; the need to directly test possible mechanisms explaining the links among the variables; and the usefulness of longitudinal research in determining possible directions of causality and developmental changes in the relationships.

Community Detection in Multi-Layer Networks

In the scope of the current thesis we review and analyse networks that are formed by nodes with several attributes. We suppose that different layers of communities are embedded in such networks, besides each of the layers is connected with nodes' attributes. For example, examine one of a variety of online social networks: an user participates in a plurality of different groups/communities – schoolfellows, colleagues, clients, etc. We introduce a detection algorithm for the above-mentioned communities. Normally the result of the detection is the community supplemented just by the most dominant attribute, disregarding others. We propose an algorithm that bypasses dominant communities and detects communities which are formed by other nodes' attributes. We also review formation models of the attributed networks and present a Human Communication Network (HCN) model. We introduce a High School Texting Network (HSTN) and examine our methods for that network.

Dynamics in large scale networks

In this thesis we study the properties of two large dynamic networks, the competition network of advertisers on the Google and Bing search engines and the dynamic network of friend relationships among avatars in the massively multiplayer online game (MMOG) Planetside 2. We are particularly interested in removal patterns in these networks. Our main finding is that in both of these networks the nodes which are most commonly removed are minor near isolated nodes. We also investigate the process of merging of two large networks using data captured during the merger of servers of Planetside 2. We found that the original network structures do not really merge but rather they get gradually replaced by newcomers not associated with the original structures. In the final part of the thesis we investigate the concept of motifs in the Barabási-Albert random graph. We establish some bounds on the number of motifs in this graph.

L'audit de sécurité et la protection des organisations

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Motivation scolaire et adaptation psychosociale d'élèves du secondaire scolarisés en classe de prolongation de cycle

Depuis la mise en place de la réforme, il y a plus de dix ans, les directions d’établissement sont tenues de trouver des solutions alternatives au redoublement, afin d’aider les élèves en difficulté à rattraper leur retard. C’est afin de répondre à cet impératif que la classe de prolongation de cycle a été mise en place dans les écoles secondaires. Des élèves en fin de 1er cycle, jugés incapables de poursuivre au cycle supérieur, y sont regroupés et pendant une année, ils bénéficient de mesures de soutien afin d’atteindre le niveau de compétence attendu (plus précisément en français en en mathématiques) pour pouvoir vivre un passage réussi au second cycle. Peu de résultats de recherches sont toutefois disponibles quant à l’efficacité de cette modalité. La présente étude vise donc à estimer l’incidence de deux modèles de prolongation de cycle (co-enseignement et avec enseignant unique), sur la motivation et l’adaptation psychosociale des élèves. Ainsi, les élèves qui expérimentent un modèle de co-enseignement demeurent en groupe fermé et sont accompagnés par trois enseignants titulaires qui se partagent la responsabilité de la quasi-totalité des composantes du programme de formation. Les élèves qui expérimentent un modèle avec enseignant unique demeurent eux aussi en groupe fermé, mais sont encadrés par une seule enseignante titulaire qui assume la responsabilité des enseignements en français et en mathématiques. Les autres matières sont enseignées par des spécialistes. Cent trente-quatre élèves au total, fréquentant trois écoles secondaires francophones montréalaises situées en milieu défavorisé, ont donc formé les groupes expérimentaux et témoins. En début et en fin d’année, les participants ont répondu à un questionnaire d’enquête mesurant l’évolution de leur motivation générale pour les apprentissages, de leur motivation spécifique aux disciplines, de leur adaptation psychosociale, de même que certaines facettes de leurs relations avec leurs pairs, leurs enseignants et leurs parents. Les résultats d’analyses de variance multivariées à mesures répétées (MANOVA) et des tests univariés subséquents permettent d’observer, chez les élèves qui ont expérimenté la prolongation de cycle en co-enseignement, une augmentation de leur sentiment de compétence général vis-à-vis l’école. De plus, leurs buts de performance-évitement et leur anxiété sociale ont diminué. Chez les élèves qui ont expérimenté la prolongation de cycle avec enseignant unique, ce même sentiment de compétence vis-à-vis l’école et celui spécifique au français ont augmenté. En revanche, ces derniers s’expriment plus négativement que leurs homologues en ce qui concerne leur intérêt général envers l’école, leur sentiment d’appartenance à leur école et leurs relations avec leurs pairs. Ces résultats indiquent donc que cette mesure a un effet mitigé sur la motivation et l’adaptation psychosociale des élèves. De plus, les quelques bénéfices perçus peuvent être la conséquence du fait de se retrouver dans un environnement scolaire moins compétitif. Cela dit, il apparaît important de préciser que les enseignants qui ont testé le modèle de co-enseignement en étaient à une première expérience. Leurs pratiques sont susceptibles de se bonifier, ce qui laisse croire que des résultats plus disparates pourraient éventuellement être observés entre ces deux modèles de prolongation. Par ailleurs, la pérennité des gains observés est inconnue. En conséquence, il conviendrait de poursuivre cette étude pour être en mesure de déterminer si ceux-ci sont durables dans le temps et afin de constater la pleine mesure de l’efficacité du modèle de prolongation de co-enseignement.

Neural Network based studies on Spectroscopic Analysis and Image Processing

International School of Photonics, Cochin University of Science and Technology

‘Modeling and Analysis of Competing Risks Data’

there has been much research on analyzing various forms of competing risks data. Nevertheless, there are several occasions in survival studies, where the existing models and methodologies are inadequate for the analysis competing risks data. ldentifiabilty problem and various types of and censoring induce more complications in the analysis of competing risks data than in classical survival analysis. Parametric models are not adequate for the analysis of competing risks data since the assumptions about the underlying lifetime distributions may not hold well. Motivated by this, in the present study. we develop some new inference procedures, which are completely distribution free for the analysis of competing risks data.

Simulative Risikoanalyse von Biomethanprojekten

Im Zuge der Novellierung der Gasnetzzugangsverordnung sowie des Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes entwickelte sich die Einspeisung von Biomethan in das Erdgasnetz als alternative Investitionsmöglichkeit der Erneuerbare-Energien-Branche. Als problematisch erweist sich dabei die Identifikation und Strukturierung einzelner Risikofaktoren zu einem Risikobereich, sowie die anschließende Quantifizierung dieser Risikofaktoren innerhalb eines Risikoportfolios. Darüber hinaus besteht die Schwierigkeit, diese Risikofaktoren in einem cashflowbasierten und den Ansprüchen der Investoren gewachsenem Risikomodell abzubilden. Zusätzlich müssen dabei Wechselwirkungen zwischen einzelnen Risikofaktoren berücksichtigt werden. Aus diesem Grund verfolgt die Dissertation das Ziel, die Risikosituation eines Biomethanprojektes anhand aggregierter und isolierter Risikosimulationen zu analysieren. Im Rahmen einer Diskussion werden Strategien und Instrumente zur Risikosteuerung angesprochen sowie die Implementierungsfähigkeit des Risikomodells in das Risikomanagementsystem von Investoren. Die Risikomaße zur Beschreibung der Risikoauswirkung betrachten die Shortfälle einer Verteilung. Dabei beziehen sich diese auf die geplanten Ausschüttungen sowie interne Verzinsungsansprüche der Investoren und die von Kreditinstituten geforderte minimale Schuldendienstdeckungsrate. Im Hinblick auf die Risikotragfähigkeit werden liquiditätsorientierte Kennzahlen hinzugezogen. Investoren interessieren sich vor dem Hintergrund einer gezielten Risikosteuerung hauptsächlich für den gefahrvollsten Risikobereich und innerhalb dessen für den Risikofaktor, der die größten Risikoauswirkungen hervorruft. Zudem spielt der Zeitpunkt maximaler Risikoauswirkung eine große Rolle. Als Kernaussage dieser Arbeit wird festgestellt, dass in den meisten Fällen die Aussagefähigkeit aggregierter Risikosimulationen durch Überlagerungseffekte negativ beeinträchtigt wird. Erst durch isoliert durchgeführte Risikoanalysen können diese Effekte eliminiert werden. Besonders auffällig gestalten sich dabei die Ergebnisse der isoliert durchgeführten Risikoanalyse des Risikobereichs »Politik«. So verursacht dieser im Vergleich zu den übrigen Risikobereichen, wie »Infrastruktur«, »Rohstoffe«, »Absatzmarkt« und »Finanzmarkt«, die geringsten Wahrscheinlichkeiten avisierte Planwerte der Investoren zu unterschreiten. Kommt es jedoch zu einer solchen Planwert-Unterschreitung, nehmen die damit verbundenen Risikoauswirkungen eine überraschende Position im Risikoranking der Investoren ein. Hinsichtlich der Aussagefähigkeit des Risikomodells wird deutlich, dass spezifische Risikosichtweisen der Investoren ausschlaggebend dafür sind, welche Strategien und Instrumente zur Risikosenkung umgesetzt werden. Darüber hinaus wird festgestellt, dass die Grenzen des Risikomodells in der Validität der Expertenmeinungen und dem Auffinden einer Optimallösung zu suchen sind.

Efectos socioeconómicos del aumento del nivel del mar, como consecuencia del cambio climático, en la Isla de San Andrés : un desafío para la gestión urbana del riesgo

Se realiza un análisis de riesgo prospectivo para determinar los posibles efectos socioeconómicos (población, vivienda, infraestructura económica y vial principal y el producto interno bruto) del aumento del nivel del mar en la cabecera urbana de la Isla de San Andrés, Colombia. Como alternativa a los resultados críticos, se plantean tres modelos de ocupación del territorio que podrían reducir la vulnerabilidad del asentamiento humano.

Evaluación de los planes de emergencia de la ciudad de Bogotá D.C, desde una perspectiva de recuperación temprana frente a la posible amenaza de terremoto (2001-2009)

La presente investigación diagnóstica tiene como propósito responder a las siguientes preguntas: ¿Que tan preparada se encuentra Bogotá D.C., para afrontar la materialización de un fenómeno natural, como lo es un terremoto? Y ¿Es lo suficientemente eficaz para garantizar la seguridad, la gobernabilidad y la estabilidad socioeconómica de sus habitantes?.

Análisis de sensibilidad para un modelo de medición de percepción de marca basado en simulación computacional por agentes

Se presenta el análisis de sensibilidad de un modelo de percepción de marca y ajuste de la inversión en marketing desarrollado en el Laboratorio de Simulación de la Universidad del Rosario. Este trabajo de grado consta de una introducción al tema de análisis de sensibilidad y su complementario el análisis de incertidumbre. Se pasa a mostrar ambos análisis usando un ejemplo simple de aplicación del modelo mediante la aplicación exhaustiva y rigurosa de los pasos descritos en la primera parte. Luego se hace una discusión de la problemática de medición de magnitudes que prueba ser el factor más complejo de la aplicación del modelo en el contexto práctico y finalmente se dan conclusiones sobre los resultados de los análisis.