Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators��� and technical analysis��� ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

A comparative study of four tree species used in riparian forest restoration along Uruguay River, Brazil

Silvicultural and ecological knowledge about tree species is basic to restoration planning, particularly in high diversity regions. Here we present a comparison of four native tree species from the middle Uruguay River basin, Brazil-Argentine frontier: Heliocarpus americanus L. (Malvaceae), Maclura tinctoria (L.) D. Don ex Steud. (Moraceae), Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi (Anacardiaceae) and Cordia trichotoma (Vell.) Arrab. ex Steud. (Boraginaceae). We obtained data on initial growth, light interception, litterfall and litter mineral contents. H. americanus presented the greatest height and the lowest value of height/crown width ratio. H. americanus and M. tinctoria presented the highest light interception rate (>94 %) and highest litterfall (879 �� 151 and 792 �� 164 g��m-2��year-1, respectively). For the set of species, the lowest litterfall occurred between July and September. H. americanus presented the highest K concentration (1.13%) in the litter, while C. trichotoma had the highest values of Ca and Mg (6.35 and 2.02 %, respectively). S. terebinthifolius had the lowest light interception rate and litter mineral content.

Influence of pioneer-species combinations on restoration of disturbed ecosystems in the Atlantic Forest, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The analysis of species composition and its effects on sustainability restoration processes in the Atlantic Forest with poor environmental attributes is important to improve rehabilitation techniques for disturbed ecosystems. Reforestation projects were used as Biological Measures (BM) of rehabilitation, where treatments differ in the composition of exotic species, utilized as anthropic pioneers: BM1 - 82% (73% Mimosa caesalpiniifolia Benth, 9% Eucalyptus citriodora Hook.); BM2 - 91% (9%, 82%); and BM3 - 25% (15%, 10%). The monitoring of spontaneous regeneration was evaluated in three 12-year-old reforestation sites between thr rainy season of 2004 and 2005, and compared with an approximately 100-year-old native forest fragment and a grassland: ecosystems with inertial tendency toward recuperation and degradation, respectively. It was detected that exotic species used as anthropic pioneers strongly influenced regeneration: BM1 (75%), BM2 (85%), BM3 (55%), Forest (0%) and Grassland (50%). The highest similarity of species with forest regeneration (5%) was found for treatment BM3.

What can and should be legalized in ecological restoration?

After listing the five key elements of ecological restoration, ecology, economics, social values, cultural values, and politics, I celebrate the fact that in Brazil there is legislation on how to perform ecological restoration of degraded tropical forests, as well as an ongoing dialogue among legislators and scientists about this legislation, and also a lively debate among scientists as the best way forward, referring to articles by Brancalion et al. (2010) and Durigan et al. (2010) in this issue of Revista ��rvore. Legislators elsewhere, especially megadiversity countries, should take note. I do not take sides in the debate; I think both groups of authors make very good points. Instead I call on the scientists and legislators concerned with restoration to ponder five strategic tools: A. Start with clear concepts. B. Decide where you want to go and why. C. Negotiate who should benefit & how, and who should pay, how, & why. D. Work out how an honest cost-benefit analysis of restoration would look, regardless of the biome in which you are working. Finally, figure out how to make the restoration immediately attractive for private landowners. Otherwise, they will not cooperate as fully as they could or should, and restoration efforts will not achieve its full potential.

The role of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi on the early-stage restoration of seasonally dry tropical forest in Chamela, Mexico

It was evaluated the effect of two different sources of local inocula from two contrasting sites (mature forest, pasture) of arbuscular mycorrhizae fungi (AMF) and a non-mycorrhizal control on the plant growth of six woody species differing in functional characteristics (slow-, intermediate- and fast-growth), when introduced in a seasonally tropical dry forest (STDF) converted into abandoned pasture. Six plots (12 X 12m) were set as AMF inoculum source. Six replicates of six different species arranged in a Latin Square design were set in each plot. Plant height, cover area and the number of leaves produced by individual plant was measured monthly during the first growing season in each treatment. Species differed in their ability to benefit from AMF and the largest responsiveness in plant height and leaf production was exhibited by the slow-growing species Swietenia humilis, Hintonia latiflora and Cordia alliodora. At the end of the growing season (November), the plant height of the fast growing species Tabebuia donnel-smithii, Ceiba pentandra and Guazuma ulmifolia were not influenced by AMF. However, inocula of AMF increased leaf production of all plant species regardless the functional characteristics of the species, suggesting a better exploitation of above-ground space and generating a light limited environment under the canopy, which contributed to pasture suppression. Inoculation of seedlings planted in abandoned pasture areas is recommended for ecological restoration due to the high responsiveness of seedling growth in most of species. Use of forest inoculum with its higher diversity of AMF could accelerate the ecological restoration of the above and below-ground comunities.

Added Value of Combining Value and Momentum Indicators in the Swiss Stock Market

The purpose of the thesis is to examine the added value of combining value and momentum indicators in the Swiss stock exchange. Value indicators employed are P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/CF, P/B ja P/S. Momentum indicators examined are 52-week high, acceleration rate, 12-month past return and 6-month past return. The thesis examines whether the composite value measures based on the above mentioned ratios can add value and whether the inclusion of momentum can further improve the risk return profile of the value portfolios. The data is gathered from the Swiss equity market during the sample period from May 2001 to May 2011. Previous studies have shown that composite value measures can somewhat add value to the value portfolio strategy. Similarly, recent academic literature have found evidence that momentum works well as a timing indicator for time to entry to value stocks. This study indicates that the added value of composite value measures exists. It also shows that momentum combined to acceleration rate can significantly improve the risk adjusted performance of value-only portfolios.

ASSESSMENT OF A 5-YEAR-OLD REHABILITATED RIPARIAN FOREST: IS IT ALREADY SUSTAINABLE?

ABSTRACTAs important as the establishment of projects of ecological restoration is its assessment post-implementation to know whether the area is becoming self-sustainable or need to be redirected. In this way, this study aimed to know the current situation of a 5-year-old rehabilitated riparian forest,inserted in an anthropogenic impacted region,at the das Velhas River, Minas Gerais State, studying the canopy openness and recruitment of seedlings as plant indicators. 15 plots were allocated in the forest, where hemispherical photographs were taken to analyze the canopy openness and evaluate all seedlings from 0.30 m to 1.30 m height.Canopy openness ranged from 23.7% to 38.8% between seasons and only 192 seedlings were found,from 13 species, five of them exotic and aggressive. Although canopy openness was low, it seems that lateral penetration of light has been favoring the development and dominancy of plants from invasive species, whereas few native ones have been recruited. The exotic/invasive plants may compromise the success of restoration mainly by competition with native planted species. The outcomes evidenced an unsustainability of the riparian forest and the requirement of some management actions to control exotic and invasive plants and ensure the preservation of the area and its ecological roles over time.

EVALUATION OF THE POTENTIAL OF SEED RAIN AS AN ALTERNATIVE FOR FOREST RESTORATION IN PERMANENT PRESERVATION AREAS1

ABSTRACT The ecological restoration of degraded areas using seeds collected in forest remnants has shown significant results. This study was developed to verify the potential of seed rain to regenerate forest fragments of a Permanent Preservation Area (PPA) in the Apa River Basin which is located in the southwestern portion of the Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil. To develop the study, we installed 25 collectors measuring 1 m2 each, which were systematically distributed on an area of 1.5ha. Seed gathering was conducted in a monthly basis throughout the year of 2013. A total of 26.411 propagules were identified and distributed among 50 species, 45 genera and 32 families. In terms of the propagules distribution, 70.51% were identified as trees, 22.8% as lianas, 6.5% as shrubs, 0.1 as herbaceous, 0.05% as palm and 0.05% could not be classified. The value for the Shannon Diversity Index was (H') = 1.67 and the Pielou Evenness index was (J) = 0.42. These results indicate that the seeds rain has low species diversity with the abundance of a few species. The overall results suggest that seed rain can be a potential technique for restoration of the PPAs and other forested areas. However, it is necessary to enhance the diversity of tree species.

Material embodiment and energy flows as efficiency indicators of soybean (Glycine max) production in Brazil

As the requirement for agriculture to be environmentally suitable there is a necessity to adopt indicators and methodologies approaching sustainability. In Brazil, biodiesel addition into diesel is mandatory and soybean oil is its main source. The material embodiment determines the convergence of inputs into the crop. Moreover, the material flows are necessary for any environmental analysis. This study evaluated distinct production scenarios, and also conventional versus GMO crops, through the material embodiment and energy analysis. GMO crops demanded less indirectly applied inputs. The energy balance showed linearity with yield, whereas for EROI, the increases in input and yield were not affected.

Setting efficiency indicators for center pivots

In this study, it was discussed the efficiency criteria in each of the elements that compose a central pivot, and this analysis was applied to two sets of systems located in regions of Cruz Alta and Santo Augusto, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The methodology used combines water and energy assessment through an indicator called Normalized Specific Consumption in Irrigation (C ENI), allowing thus a comparison between equipment and projects. The C ENI in Cruz Alta region showed 72% of the equipment above the standard (8.68 kWh mm-1 ha-1 100m-1), and in Santo Augusto region 64.28% with consumption above the standard. The mean irrigation efficiency for Cruz Alta region was 29.85%, with standard deviation of 5.41%, and for Santo Augusto region, it was 29.02%, with standard deviation of 5.15%.

Technical and economic indicators of the yellow passion fruit tree irrigated with underground water supply

The research aimed to quantify technical and economic indicators of yellow passion fruit tree irrigated with fractions of irrigation with underground source of water, to generate information that helps farmers in decision making on the implementation of investment in irrigated fruit growing (yellow passion fruit). For this purpose, we used the passion fruit crop irrigated with Microjet type irrigation system, with conducting system in simple espaliers. The treatments consisted of five hours of application of the depth of water required by the crop with irrigation frequency of two days. The results showed that the highest yield (16660kg ha-1) was obtained with the fractionation of irrigation twice a day (50% to 7h and 50% to 21h30), which provided an increase in productivity of 54%, demonstrating the financial viability and being highly profitable to the interest rate of 2% per year, with low sensitivity of financial risk to real interest rates above the prevailing market.

Water quality indicators for environmental and resistance profile of Escherichia coli strains isolated in Rio Cascavel, Paran��, Brazil

In this article it was evaluated the quality of water in the Cascavel river, in the city of Cascavel - Paran�� using microbiological indicators, physical and chemical pollution and susceptibility / resistance in strains of Escherichia coli isolated antimicrobial trade. The water sampling was conducted between 2010-July and 2011-June at three points: a) near the source, b) urban area, c) rural area. The samples were analyzed for physical, chemical and microbiological variables: temperature, pH, color, turbidity, electrical conductivity, total nitrogen and total phosphorus, total coliforms (CT), fecal coliform (CTe) and Escherichia coli. Tests were also performed to nine antimicrobial commercial resistances. The variables studied indicated that the Cascavel river water was presented at disagreement with the resolution 357/2005 CONAMA (class I), ranking in the index as regular water quality. The physical, chemical and rainfall did not affect the growth of CT and CTe, with higher counts of E. coli in the urban area. The greatest resistance profiles of the strains of E. coli isolated from Cascavel river water was found in section 2, the urban area as a probable consequence of human influence on water quality.

Cloroplast pigments as indicators of lead stress

Plants respond to environmental adversities, becoming an indicator for assessing the environment quality. In this aspect, chlorophyll contents as well, carotenoids are used as a reliable indicator to associate environmental quality and pollution, mainly regarding the toxicity of heavy metals in higher plants. So, we aimed to evaluate the content of chlorophyll a, b, and total chlorophylls and carotenoids in plants vetiver [Vetiveria zizanioides (L.) Nash], maize (Zea mays L.) cv. AG 1051, sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) cv. BRS 122/V-2000, and castor beans (Ricinus communis L. ) cv . Northeastern BRS grown in contaminated soil with lead, with and without correction of soil pH, so they were used as indicators of metal stress by the soil. From the biochemical point of view, the correction of soil pH values caused chlorophyll a, b and total statistically higher for vetiver species and castor beans in the analyzed periods, except for the analysis performed 60 days after transplanting where only the species vetiver benefited from the correction of soil pH on the content of chlorophyll b and total. On the other hand plants without correction of soil pH showed a decrease of all chlorophyll levels. In addition, the largest increase in the synthesis of carotenoids, indicated that under stress the plants have developed alternative routes of dissipation of energy in order to avoid problems of photo-inhibition and photo-oxidation.

Testate amoebae (thecamoebians) as indicators of aquatic mine impact

The environmental impacts of a single mine often remain local, but acidic and metal-rich acid mine drainage (AMD) from the waste materials may pose a serious threat to adjacent surface waters and their ecosystems. Testate amoebae (thecamoebian) analysis was used together with lake sediment geochemistry to study and evaluate the ecological effects of sulphidic metal mines on aquatic environments. Three different mines were included in the study: Luikonlahti Cu-mine in Kaavi, eastern Finland, Haveri Cu-Au mine in Yl��j��rvi, southern Finland and Pyh��salmi Zn-Cu-S mine in Pyh��j��rvi, central Finland. Luikonlahti and Haveri are closed mines, but Pyh��salmi is still operating. The sampling strategy was case specific, and planned to provide a representative sediment sample series to define natural background conditions, to detect spatial and temporal variations in mine impacts, to evaluate the possible recovery after the peak contamination, and to distinguish the effects of other environmental factors from the mining impacts. In the Haveri case, diatom analyses were performed alongside thecamoebian analysis to evaluate the similarities and differences between the two proxies. The results of the analyses were investigated with multivariate methods (direct and indirect ordinations, diversity and distance measure indices). Finally, the results of each case study were harmonized, pooled, and jointly analyzed to summarize the results for this dissertation. Geochemical results showed broadly similar temporal patterns in each case. Concentrations of ions in the pre-disturbance samples defined the natural baseline against which other results were compared. The beginning of the mining activities had only minor impacts on sediment geochemistry, mainly appearing as an increased clastic input into the lakes at Haveri and Pyh��salmi. The active mining phase was followed by the metallic contamination and, subsequently, by the most recent change towards decreased but still elevated metal concentrations in the sediments. Because of the delay in the oxidation of waste material and formation of AMD, the most intense, but transient metal contamination phase occurred in the post-mining period at Luikonlahti and Haveri. At Pyh��salmi, the highest metal contamination preceded effluent mitigation actions. Spatial gradients were observed besides the temporal evolution in both the pre-disturbance and mine-impacted samples from Luikonlahti and Pyh��salmi. The geochemical gradients varied with distance from the main source of contaminants (dispersion and dilution) and with water depth (redox and pH). The spatial extent of the highest metal contamination associated with these mines remained rather limited. At Haveri, the metallic impact was widespread, with the upstream site in another lake basin found to be contaminated. Changes in thecamoebian assemblages corresponded well with the geochemical results. Despite some differences, the general features and ecological responses of the faunal assemblages were rather similar in each lake. Constantly abundant strains of Difflugia oblonga, Difflugia protaeiformis and centropyxids formed the core of these assemblages. Increasing proportions of Cucurbitella tricuspis towards the surface samples were found in all of the cases. The results affirmed the indicator value of some already known indicator forms, but such as C. tricuspis and higher nutrient levels, but also elicited possible new ones such as D. oblonga ���spinosa��� and clayey substrate, high conductivity and/or alkalinity, D. protaeiformis ���multicornis��� and pH, water hardness and the amount of clastic material and Centropyxis constricta ���aerophila��� and high metal and S concentrations. In each case, eutrophication appeared to be the most important environmental factor, masking the effects of other variables. Faunal responses to high metal inputs in sediments remained minor, but were nevertheless detectable. Besides the trophic state of the lake, numerical methods suggested overall geochemical conditions (pH, redox) to be the most important factor at Luikonlahti, whereas the Haveri results showed the clearest connection between metals and amoebae. At Pyh��salmi, the strongest relationships were found between Ca- and S-rich present loading, redox conditions and substrate composition. Sediment geochemistry and testate amoeba analysis proved to be a suitable combination of methods to detect and describe the aquatic mine impacts in each specific case, to evaluate recovery and to differentiate between the effects of different anthropogenic and natural environmental factors. It was also suggested that aquatic mine impacts can be significantly mitigated by careful design and after-care of the waste facilities, especially by reducing and preventing AMD. The case-specific approach is nevertheless necessary because of the unique characteristics of each mine and variations in the environmental background conditions.

Key performance indicators for successful metadata governance

Metadata in increasing levels of sophistication has been the most powerful concept used in management of unstructured information ever since the first librarian used the Dewey decimal system for library classifications. It remains to be seen, however, what the best approach is to implementing metadata to manage huge volumes of unstructured information in a large organization. Also, once implemented, how is it possible to track whether it is adding value to the company, and whether the implementation has been successful? Existing literature on metadata seems to either focus too much on technical and quality aspects or describe issues with respect to adoption for general information management initiatives. This research therefore, strives to contribute to these gaps: to give a consolidated framework for striving to understand the value added by implementing metadata. The basic methodology used is that of case study, which incorporates aspects of design science, surveys, and interviews in order to provide a holistic approach to quantitative and qualitative analysis of the case. The research identifies the various approaches to implementing metadata, particularly studying the one followed by the unit of analysis of case study, a large company in the Oil and Gas Sector. Of the three approaches identified, the selected company already follows an approach that appears to be superior. The researcher further explores its shortcomings, and proposes a slightly modified approach that can handle them. The research categorically and thoroughly (in context) identifies the top effectiveness criteria, and corresponding key performance indicators(KPIs) that can be measured to understand the level of advancement of the metadata management initiative in the company. In an effort to contrast and have a basis of comparison for the findings, the research also includes views from information managers dealing with core structured data stored in ERPs and other databases. In addition, the results include the basic criteria that can be used to evaluate metrics, in order to classify a metric as a KPI.