New Results Concerning Probability Distributions with Increasing Generalized Failure Rates

The generalized failure rate of a continuous random variable has demonstrable importance in operations management. If the valuation distribution of a product has an increasing generalized failure rate (that is, the distribution is IGFR), then the associated revenue function is unimodal, and when the generalized failure rate is strictly increasing, the global maximum is uniquely specified. The assumption that the distribution is IGFR is thus useful and frequently held in recent pricing, revenue, and supply chain management literature. This note contributes to the IGFR literature in several ways. First, it investigates the prevalence of the IGFR property for the left and right truncations of valuation distributions. Second, we extend the IGFR notion to discrete distributions and contrast it with the continuous distribution case. The note also addresses two errors in the previous IGFR literature. Finally, for future reference, we analyze all common (continuous and discrete) distributions for the prevalence of the IGFR property, and derive and tabulate their generalized failure rates.

Function of liver activation-regulated chemokine/CC chemokine ligand 20 is differently affected by cathepsin B and cathepsin D processing

Chemokine processing by proteases is emerging as an important regulatory mechanism of leukocyte functions and possibly also of cancer progression. We screened a large panel of chemokines for degradation by cathepsins B and D, two proteases involved in tumor progression. Among the few substrates processed by both proteases, we focused on CCL20, the unique chemokine ligand of CCR6 that is expressed on immature dendritic cells and subtypes of memory lymphocytes. Analysis of the cleavage sites demonstrate that cathepsin B specifically cleaves off four C-terminally located amino acids and generates a CCL20(1-66) isoform with full functional activity. By contrast, cathepsin D totally inactivates the chemotactic potency of CCL20 by generating CCL20(1-55), CCL20(1-52), and a 12-aa C-terminal peptide CCL20(59-70). Proteolytic cleavage of CCL20 occurs also with chemokine bound to glycosaminoglycans. In addition, we characterized human melanoma cells as a novel CCL20 source and as cathepsin producers. CCL20 production was up-regulated by IL-1alpha and TNF-alpha in all cell lines tested, and in human metastatic melanoma cells. Whereas cathepsin D is secreted in the extracellular milieu, cathepsin B activity is confined to cytosol and cellular membranes. Our studies suggest that CCL20 processing in the extracellular environment of melanoma cells is exclusively mediated by cathepsin D. Thus, we propose a model where cathepsin D inactivates CCL20 and possibly prevents the establishment of an effective antitumoral immune response in melanomas.

Concordance Probability and Discriminatory Power in Proportional Hazards Regression

The concordance probability is used to evaluate the discriminatory power and the predictive accuracy of nonlinear statistical models. We derive an analytic expression for the concordance probability in the Cox proportional hazards model. The proposed estimator is a function of the regression parameters and the covariate distribution only and does not use the observed event and censoring times. For this reason it is asymptotically unbiased, unlike Harrell's c-index based on informative pairs. The asymptotic distribution of the concordance probability estimate is derived using U-statistic theory and the methodology is applied to a predictive model in lung cancer.

GENERATING PLANS IN CONCURRENT, PROBABILISTIC, OVER-SUBSCRIBED DOMAINS

Planning in realistic domains typically involves reasoning under uncertainty, operating under time and resource constraints, and finding the optimal subset of goals to work on. Creating optimal plans that consider all of these features is a computationally complex, challenging problem. This dissertation develops an AO* search based planner named CPOAO* (Concurrent, Probabilistic, Over-subscription AO*) which incorporates durative actions, time and resource constraints, concurrent execution, over-subscribed goals, and probabilistic actions. To handle concurrent actions, action combinations rather than individual actions are taken as plan steps. Plan optimization is explored by adding two novel aspects to plans. First, parallel steps that serve the same goal are used to increase the plan’s probability of success. Traditionally, only parallel steps that serve different goals are used to reduce plan execution time. Second, actions that are executing but are no longer useful can be terminated to save resources and time. Conventional planners assume that all actions that were started will be carried out to completion. To reduce the size of the search space, several domain independent heuristic functions and pruning techniques were developed. The key ideas are to exploit dominance relations for candidate action sets and to develop relaxed planning graphs to estimate the expected rewards of states. This thesis contributes (1) an AO* based planner to generate parallel plans, (2) domain independent heuristics to increase planner efficiency, and (3) the ability to execute redundant actions and to terminate useless actions to increase plan efficiency.

Risk of severe asthma episodes predicted from fluctuation analysis of airway function

Asthma is an increasing health problem worldwide, but the long-term temporal pattern of clinical symptoms is not understood and predicting asthma episodes is not generally possible. We analyse the time series of peak expiratory flows, a standard measurement of airway function that has been assessed twice daily in a large asthmatic population during a long-term crossover clinical trial. Here we introduce an approach to predict the risk of worsening airflow obstruction by calculating the conditional probability that, given the current airway condition, a severe obstruction will occur within 30 days. We find that, compared with a placebo, a regular long-acting bronchodilator (salmeterol) that is widely used to improve asthma control decreases the risk of airway obstruction. Unexpectedly, however, a regular short-acting beta2-agonist bronchodilator (albuterol) increases this risk. Furthermore, we find that the time series of peak expiratory flows show long-range correlations that change significantly with disease severity, approaching a random process with increased variability in the most severe cases. Using a nonlinear stochastic model, we show that both the increased variability and the loss of correlations augment the risk of unstable airway function. The characterization of fluctuations in airway function provides a quantitative basis for objective risk prediction of asthma episodes and for evaluating the effectiveness of therapy.

Generating Realistic Camera Shake for Virtual Scenes

When depicting both virtual and physical worlds, the viewer's impression of presence in these worlds is strongly linked to camera motion. Plausible and artist-controlled camera movement can substantially increase scene immersion. While physical camera motion exhibits subtle details of position, rotation, and acceleration, these details are often missing for virtual camera motion. In this work, we analyze camera movement using signal theory. Our system allows us to stylize a smooth user-defined virtual base camera motion by enriching it with plausible details. A key component of our system is a database of videos filmed by physical cameras. These videos are analyzed with a camera-motion estimation algorithm (structure-from-motion) and labeled manually with a specific style. By considering spectral properties of location, orientation and acceleration, our solution learns camera motion details. Consequently, an arbitrary virtual base motion, defined in any conventional animation package, can be automatically modified according to a user-selected style. In an animation package the camera motion base path is typically defined by the user via function curves. Another possibility is to obtain the camera path by using a mixed reality camera in motion capturing studio. As shown in our experiments, the resulting shots are still fully artist-controlled, but appear richer and more physically plausible.

Bayesian Approach to Spectral Function Reconstruction for Euclidean Quantum Field Theories

We present a novel approach to the inference of spectral functions from Euclidean time correlator data that makes close contact with modern Bayesian concepts. Our method differs significantly from the maximum entropy method (MEM). A new set of axioms is postulated for the prior probability, leading to an improved expression, which is devoid of the asymptotically flat directions present in the Shanon-Jaynes entropy. Hyperparameters are integrated out explicitly, liberating us from the Gaussian approximations underlying the evidence approach of the maximum entropy method. We present a realistic test of our method in the context of the nonperturbative extraction of the heavy quark potential. Based on hard-thermal-loop correlator mock data, we establish firm requirements in the number of data points and their accuracy for a successful extraction of the potential from lattice QCD. Finally we reinvestigate quenched lattice QCD correlators from a previous study and provide an improved potential estimation at T2.33TC.

Early stages of experimental colon carcinogenesis inhibit mast cell-dependent mucosal immune function of the distal colon

Inhibition of local host immune reactions is one mechanism contributing to tumor progression. To determine if alterations in local immune functioning occur during colon carcinogenesis, a model mucosal immune response, type I hypersensitivity against the intestinal parasite Trichinella spiralis, was first characterized in normal mice and then examined during experimental colon carcinogenesis. Segments of sensitized colon mounted in Ussing chambers and challenged with T. spiralis-derived antigen resulted in a rise in short-circuit current ($\rm\Delta I\sb{sc}$) that was antigen-specific and inhibited by furosemide, implicating epithelial Cl$\sp-$ secretion as the ionic mechanism. The immune-regulated Cl$\sp-$ secretion by colonic epithelial cells required the presence of mast cells with surface IgE. Inhibition of potential anaphylactic mediators with various pharmacological agents in vitro implicated prostaglandins and leukotrienes as the principal mediators of the antigen-induced $\rm\Delta I\sb{sc}$, with 5-hydroxytryptamine also playing a role. Distal colon from immune mice fed an aspirin-containing diet (800 mg/kg powdered diet) ad libitum for 6 wk had a decreased response to antigen, confirming the major role of prostaglandins in generating the colonic I$\sb{\rm sc}$. To determine the effects of early stages of colon carcinogenesis on this mucosal immune response, mice were immunized with T. spiralis 1 day after or 8 wk prior to the first of 6 weekly injections of the procarcinogen 1,2-dimethylhydrazine (DMH). Responsiveness to antigenic challenge was suppressed in the distal colon 4-6 wk after the final injection of DMH. One injection of DMH was not sufficient to inhibit antigen responsiveness. The colonic epithelium remained sensitive to direct stimulation by exogenous Cl$\sp-$ secretagogues. Decreased antigen-induced $\rm\Delta I\sb{sc}$ in the distal colon was not due to systemic immune suppression by DMH, as the proximal colon and jejunum maintained responsiveness to antigen. Also, rejection of a secondary T. spiralis infection from the small intestine was not altered. Tumors eventually developed 25-30 wk after the final injection of DMH only in the distal portions of the colon. These results suggest that early stages of DMH-induced colon carcinogenesis manipulate the microenvironment such that mucosal immune function, as measured by immune-regulated Cl$\sp-$ secretion, is suppressed in the distal colon, but not in other regions of the gut. Future elucidation of the mechanisms by which this localized inhibition of immune-mediated ion transport occurs may provide possible clues to the microenvironmental changes necessary for tumor progression in the distal colon. ^

U7 snRNP-specific Lsm11 protein: dual binding contacts with the 100 kDa zinc finger processing factor (ZFP100) and a ZFP100-independent function in histone RNA 3' end processing

The 3' cleavage generating non-polyadenylated animal histone mRNAs depends on the base pairing between U7 snRNA and a conserved histone pre-mRNA downstream element. This interaction is enhanced by a 100 kDa zinc finger protein (ZFP100) that forms a bridge between an RNA hairpin element upstream of the processing site and the U7 small nuclear ribonucleoprotein (snRNP). The N-terminus of Lsm11, a U7-specific Sm-like protein, was shown to be crucial for histone RNA processing and to bind ZFP100. By further analysing these two functions of Lsm11, we find that Lsm11 and ZFP100 can undergo two interactions, i.e. between the Lsm11 N-terminus and the zinc finger repeats of ZFP100, and between the N-terminus of ZFP100 and the Sm domain of Lsm11, respectively. Both interactions are not specific for the two proteins in vitro, but the second interaction is sufficient for a specific recognition of the U7 snRNP by ZFP100 in cell extracts. Furthermore, clustered point mutations in three phylogenetically conserved regions of the Lsm11 N-terminus impair or abolish histone RNA processing. As these mutations have no effect on the two interactions with ZFP100, these protein regions must play other roles in histone RNA processing, e.g. by contacting the pre-mRNA or additional processing factors.

Uniqueness of the Embedding Continuous Convolution Semigroup of a Gaussian Probability Measure on the Affine Group and an Application in Mathematical Finance

Let {μ(i)t}t≥0 ( i=1,2 ) be continuous convolution semigroups (c.c.s.) of probability measures on Aff(1) (the affine group on the real line). Suppose that μ(1)1=μ(2)1 . Assume furthermore that {μ(1)t}t≥0 is a Gaussian c.c.s. (in the sense that its generating distribution is a sum of a primitive distribution and a second-order differential operator). Then μ(1)t=μ(2)t for all t≥0 . We end up with a possible application in mathematical finance.

REGULATION OF BRAIN NORADRENERGIC-RECEPTOR FUNCTION BY ADRENOCORTICOTROPHIN AND ANTIDEPRESSANT DRUGS (ADRENERGIC RECEPTOR, CYCLIC-AMP, ADENYLATE CYCLASE, IMIPRAMINE, STRESS)

Human behavior appears to be regulated in part by noradrenergic transmission since antidepressant drugs modify the number and function of (beta)-adrenergic receptors in the central nervous system. Affective illness is also known to be associated with the endocrine system, particularly the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis. The aim of the present study was to determine whether hormones, in particular adrencorticotrophin (ACTH) and corticosterone, may influence behavior by regulating brain noradrenergic receptor function.^ Chronic treatment with ACTH accelerated the increase or decrease in rat brain (beta)-adrenergic receptor number induced by a lesion of the dorsal noradrenergic bundle or treatment with the antidepressant imipramine. Chronic administration of ACTH alone had no effect on (beta)-receptor number although it reduced norepinephrine stimulated cyclic AMP accumulation in brain slices. Treatment with imipramine also reduced the cyclic AMP response to norepinephrine but was accompanied by a decrease in (beta)-adrenergic receptor number. Both the imipramine and ACTH treatments reduced the affinity of (beta)-adrenergic receptors for norepinephrine, but only the antidepressant modified the potency of the neurotransmitter to stimulate second messenger production. Neither ACTH nor imipramine treatment altered Gpp(NH)p- or fluoride-stimulated adenylate cyclase, cyclic AMP, cyclic GMP, or cyclic GMP-stimulated cyclic AMP phosphodiesterase, or the activity of the guanine nucleotide binding protein (Gs). These findings suggested that post-receptor components of the cyclic nucleotide generating system are not influenced by the hormone or antidepressant. This conclusion was verified by the finding that neither treatment altered adenosine-stimulated cyclic AMP accumulation in brain tissue.^ A detailed examination of the (alpha)- and (beta)-adrenergic receptor components of norepinephrine-stimulated cyclic AMP production revealed that ACTH, but not imipramine, administration reduced the contribution of the (alpha)-receptor mediated response. Like ACTH treatment, corticosterone diminished the (alpha)-adrenergic component indicating that adrenal steroids probably mediate the neurochemical responses to ACTH administration. The data indicate that adrenal steroids and antidepressants decrease noradrenergic receptor function by selectively modifying the (alpha)- and (beta)-receptor components. The functional similarity in the action of the steroid and antidepressants suggests that adrenal hormones normally contribute to the maintenance of receptor systems which regulate affective behavior in man. ^

Genetic integration of a nuclear -encoded mitochondrial gene with cardiac function

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States. One manifestation of CVD known to increase mortality is an enlarged, or hypertrophic heart. Hypertrophic cardiomyocytes adapt to increased contractile demand at the genetic level with a re-emergence of the fetal gene program and a downregulation of fatty acid oxidation genes with concomitant increased reliance on glucose-based metabolism. To understand the transcriptional regulatory pathways that implement hypertrophic directives we analyzed the upstream promoter region of the muscle specific isoform of the nuclear-encoded mitochondrial gene, carnitine palmitoyltransferase-1β (CPT-1β) in cultured rat neonatal cardiac myocytes. This enzyme catalyzes the rate-limiting step of fatty acid entry into β-oxidation and is downregulated in cardiac hypertrophy and failure, making it an attractive model for the study of hypertrophic gene regulation and metabolic adaptations. We demonstrate that the muscle-enriched transcription factors GATA-4 and SRF synergistically activate CPT-1β; moreover, DNA binding to cognate sites and intact protein structure are required. This mechanism coordinates upregulation of energy generating processes with activation of the energy consuming contractile promoter for cardiac α-actin. We hypothesized that fatty acid or glucose responsive transcription factors may also regulate CPT-1β. Oleate weakly stimulates CPT-1β activity; in contrast, the glucose responsive Upstream Stimulatory Factors (USF) dramatically depresses the CPT-1β reporter. USF regulates CPT-1β through a novel physical interaction with the cofactor PGC-1 and abrogation of MEF2A/PGC-1 synergistic stimulation. In this way, USF can inversely regulate metabolic gene programs and may play a role in the shift of metabolic substrate preference seen in hypertrophy. Failing hearts have elevated expression of the nuclear hormone receptor COUP-TF. We report that COUP-TF significantly suppresses reporter transcription independent of DNA binding and specific interactions with GATA-4, Nkx2.5 or USF. In summary, CPT-1β transcriptional regulation integrates mitochondrial gene expression with two essential cardiac functions: contraction and metabolic substrate oxidation. ^

Intrinsic oxidative stress in cancer cells: A biochemical basis for therapeutic selectivity using ROS -generating agents

A major goal of chemotherapy is to selectively kill cancer cells while minimizing toxicity to normal cells. Identifying biological differences between cancer and normal cells is essential in designing new strategies to improve therapeutic selectivity. Superoxide dismutases (SOD) are crucial antioxidant enzymes required for the elimination of superoxide (O2·− ), a free radical produced during normal cellular metabolism. Previous studies in our laboratory demonstrated that 2-methoxyestradiol (2-ME), an estradiol derivative, inhibits the function of SOD and selectively kills human leukemia cells without exhibiting significant cytotoxicity in normal lymphocytes. The present work was initiated to examine the biochemical basis for the selective anticancer activity of 2-ME. Investigations using two-parameter flow cytometric analyses and ROS scavengers established that O2·− is a primary and essential mediator of 2-ME-induced apoptosis in cancer cells. In addition, experiments using SOD overexpression vectors and SOD knockout cells found that SOD is a critical target of 2-ME. Importantly, the administration of 2-ME resulted in the selective accumulation of O 2·− and apoptosis in leukemia and ovarian cancer cells. The preferential activity of 2-ME was found to be due to increased intrinsic oxidative stress in these cancer cells versus their normal counterparts. This intrinsic oxidative stress was associated with the upregulation of the antioxidant enzymes SOD and catalase as a mechanism to cope with the increase in ROS. Furthermore, oxygen consumption experiments revealed that normal lymphocytes decrease their respiration rate in response to 2-ME-induced oxidative stress, while human leukemia cells seem to lack this regulatory mechanism. This leads to an uncontrolled production of O2·−, severe accumulation of ROS, and ultimately ROS-mediated apoptosis in leukemia cells treated with 2-ME. The biochemical differences between cancer and normal cells identified here provide a basis for the development of drug combination strategies using 2-ME with other ROS-generating agents to enhance anticancer activity. The effectiveness of such a combination strategy in killing cancer cells was demonstrated by the use of 2-ME with agents/modalities such as ionizing radiation and doxorubicin. Collectively, the data presented here strongly suggests that 2-ME may have important clinical implications for the selective killing of cancer cells. ^

The function of the murine complement *C3a and *C5a anaphylatoxin receptors in endotoxemia, bacteremia and septic shock

The complement system functions as a major effector for both the innate and adaptive immune response. Activation of the complement cascade by either the classical, alternative, or lectin pathway promotes the proteolysis of C3 and C5 thereby generating C3a and C5a. Referred to as anaphylatoxins, the C3a and C5a peptides mediate biological effects upon binding to their respective receptors; C3a binds to the C3a receptor (C3aR) while C5a binds to the C5a receptor (C5aR, CD88). Both C3a and C5a are known for their broad proinflammatory effects. Elevated levels of both peptides have been isolated from patients with a variety of inflammatory diseases such as COPD, asthma, RA, SLE, and sepsis. Recent studies suggest that C5a is a critical component in the acquired neutrophil dysfunction, coagulopathy, and progressive multi-organ dysfunction characteristic of sepsis. The primary hypothesis of this dissertation was that preventing C3a-C3aR and C5a-C5aR mediated pro-inflammatory effects would improve survival in endotoxic, bacteremic and septic shock. To test this hypothesis, the murine C3aR and C5aR genes were disrupted. Following disruption of both the C3aR and C5aR genes, no abnormalities were identified other than the absence of their respective mRNA and protein. In models of both endotoxic and bacteremic shock, C3aR deficient mice suffered increased mortality when compared to their wild type littermates. C3aR deficient mice also had elevated circulating IL-1β levels. Using a model of sepsis, C3aR deficient mice had a higher circulating concentration of IL-6 and decreased peritoneal inflammatory infiltration. While these results were unexpected, they support an emerging role for C3a in immunomodulation. In contrast, following endotoxic or bacteremic shock, C5aR deficient mice experienced increased survival, less hemoconcentration and less thrombocytopenia. It was later determined that C5a mediated histamine release significantly contributes to host morbidity and mortality in bacteremic shock. These studies provide evidence that C5a functions primarily as a proinflammatory molecule in models of endotoxic and bacteremic shock. In the same models, C3a-C3aR interactions suppress the inflammatory response and protect the host. Collectively, these results present in vivo evidence that C3a and C5a have divergent biological functions. ^

Asymptotically Optimum Estimation of a Probability in Inverse Binomial Sampling under General Loss Functions

The optimum quality that can be asymptotically achieved in the estimation of a probability p using inverse binomial sampling is addressed. A general definition of quality is used in terms of the risk associated with a loss function that satisfies certain assumptions. It is shown that the limit superior of the risk for p asymptotically small has a minimum over all (possibly randomized) estimators. This minimum is achieved by certain non-randomized estimators. The model includes commonly used quality criteria as particular cases. Applications to the non-asymptotic regime are discussed considering specific loss functions, for which minimax estimators are derived.