Luck and the control theory of knowledge

The dissertation accomplishes two aims: 1) to diagnose what prevents true beliefs from being knowledge; 2) to give an positive account of knowledge. Concerning the first aim, it offers an account of the notion of luck. It defends the view that luck is a form of risk and distinguishes two types of luck. Then, it applies the account to the problem of epistemic luck and distinguishes, accordingly, two types of epistemic luck. It is argued that these two types of epistemic luck explain the whole range of cases of not-known true belief. Concerning the second aim, the dissertation advances an account of knowledge in terms of the notion of cognitive control that deals with the two forms of epistemic luck distinguished.

1-Oleoyl lysophosphatidic acid: a new mediator of emotional behavior in rats.

The role of lysophosphatidic acid (LPA) in the control of emotional behavior remains to be determined. We analyzed the effects of the central administration of 1-oleoyl-LPA (LPA 18∶1) in rats tested for food consumption and anxiety-like and depression-like behaviors. For this purpose, the elevated plus-maze, open field, Y maze, forced swimming and food intake tests were performed. In addition, c-Fos expression in the dorsal periaqueductal gray matter (DPAG) was also determined. The results revealed that the administration of LPA 18∶1 reduced the time in the open arms of the elevated plus-maze and induced hypolocomotion in the open field, suggesting an anxiogenic-like phenotype. Interestingly, these effects were present following LPA 18∶1 infusion under conditions of novelty but not under habituation conditions. In the forced swimming test, the administration of LPA 18∶1 dose-dependently increased depression-like behavior, as evaluated according to immobility time. LPA treatment induced no effects on feeding. However, the immunohistochemical analysis revealed that LPA 18∶1 increased c-Fos expression in the DPAG. The abundant expression of the LPA1 receptor, one of the main targets for LPA 18∶1, was detected in this brain area, which participates in the control of emotional behavior, using immunocytochemistry. These findings indicate that LPA is a relevant transmitter potentially involved in normal and pathological emotional responses, including anxiety and depression.

War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

Time-Delayed Theory of the Neolithic Transition in Europe

The classical wave-of-advance model of the neolithic transition (i.e., the shift from hunter-gatherer to agricultural economies) is based on Fisher's reaction-diffusion equation. Here we present an extension of Einstein's approach to Fickian diffusion, incorporating reaction terms. On this basis we show that second-order terms in the reaction-diffusion equation, which have been neglected up to now, are not in fact negligible but can lead to important corrections. The resulting time-delayed model agrees quite well with observations

Do Mice Habituate to "Gentle Handling?" A Comparison of Resting Behavior, Corticosterone Levels and Synaptic Function in Handled and Undisturbed C57BL/6J Mice.

Study Objectives: "Gentle handling" has become a method of choice for 4-6 h sleep deprivation in mice, with repeated brief handling applied before sleep deprivation to induce habituation. To verify whether mice do indeed habituate was assess how 6 days of repeated brief handling impact on resting behavior, on stress, and on the subunit content of N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors (NMDARs) at hippocampal synapases, which is altered by sleep loss. We discuss whether repeated handling biases the outcome of subsequent sleep deprivation.Design: Adult C5BL/6J mice, maintained on a 12 h-12 h light-dark cycle, were left undistrubed for 3 days, then handled during 3 min daily for 6 days in the middle of the light phase. Mice were continuously monitored for their resting time serum conticosterona levels and synaptic NMDAR subunit composition were quantified.Results: Handling caused a similar to 25% reduction of resting time throughtout all handling days, After six, but not after one day of handling, mice had elevated serum corticosterone levels. Six-day handling augmented the presence of the NR2A subunit of NMDARs at hippocampal synapses.Conclusion: Repeated handling induces behavoir and neurochemical alterations that are absent in undisturbed animals. The presistently reduced resting time and the delayed increase in conticosterone levels indicate that mice do not habituate to handling over a 1-week period. Handling-induced modifications bias effects of gentle handling-induced sleep deprivation on sleep homeostasis, stress, glutamate receptor composition and signaling. A standardization of sleep deprivation procedures involving gengle handling will be important for unequivocally specifying how acute sleep loss affects brain function.

Laboratory Study of Structural Behavior of Alternative Dowel Bars, April 2006

Load transfer across transverse joints has always been a factor contributing to the useful life of concrete pavements. For many years, round steel dowels have been the conventional load transfer mechanism. Many problems have been associated with the round steel dowels. The most detrimental effect of the steel dowel is corrosion. Repeated loading over time also damages joints. When a dowel is repeatedly loaded over a long period of time, the high bearing stresses found at the top and bottom edge of a bar erode the surrounding concrete. This oblonging creates multiple problems in the joint. Over the past decade, Iowa State University has performed extensive research on new dowel shapes and materials to mitigate the effects of oblonging and corrosion. This report evaluates the bearing stress performance of six different dowel bar types subjected to two different shear load laboratory test methods. The first load test is the AASHTO T253 method. The second procedure is an experimental cantilevered dowel test. The major objective was to investigate and improve the current AASHTO T253 test method for determining the modulus of dowel support, k0. The modified AASHTO test procedure was examined alongside an experimental cantilever dowel test. The modified AASHTO specimens were also subjected to a small-scale fatigue test in order to simulate long-term dowel behavior with respect to concrete joint damage. Loss on ignition tests were also performed on the GFRP dowel specimens to determine the resin content percentage. The study concluded that all of the tested dowel bar shapes and materials were adequate with respect to performance under shear loading. The modified AASHTO method yielded more desirable results than the ones obtained from the cantilever test. The investigators determined that the experimental cantilever test was not a satisfactory test method to replace or verify the AASHTO T253 method.

APPROACH AND TREATMENT OF SUICIDAL BEHAVIOR IN THE CLINICAL PRACTICE OF DIFFERENT GROUPS OF HEALTH PROFESSIONALS IN SPAIN: RESULTS OF THE PROJECT EUREGENA.

According to the WHO (World Health Organization) and the European Union, suicide is considered to be a health problem of prime importance and to be one of the principal causes of unnatural death. In Spain, the number of suicides has increased 12% since 2005 . The Research Project “European Regions Enforcing Actions against Suicide (EUREGENAS), funded by the Health Program 2008-2013, has as main objective the description of an integrated model of Mental Health orientated to the prevention of suicide. The differences that allow distinguishing the meaning of prevention in suicide behavior are described and explained through a qualitative methodological strategy and through the creation of discussion groups formed by different groups of health professionals. The results highlight the existing differences between the diverse health professionals who come more in contact with this problem and it shows as well the coincidence of meaning that suicide has to be considered as a priority in the field of health.

A theory of optimal random crackdowns

An incentives based theory of policing is developed which can explain the phenomenon of random “crackdowns,” i.e., intermittent periods of high interdiction/surveillance. For a variety of police objective functions, random crackdowns can be part of the optimal monitoring strategy. We demonstrate support for implications of the crackdown theory using traffic data gathered by the Belgian Police Department and use the model to estimate the deterrence effectof additional resources spent on speeding interdiction.

The molecular basis of social behavior: models, methods and advances.

Elucidating the molecular and neural basis of complex social behaviors such as communal living, division of labor and warfare requires model organisms that exhibit these multi-faceted behavioral phenotypes. Social insects, such as ants, bees, wasps and termites, are attractive models to address this problem, with rich ecological and ethological foundations. However, their atypical systems of reproduction have hindered application of classical genetic approaches. In this review, we discuss how recent advances in social insect genomics, transcriptomics, and functional manipulations have enhanced our ability to observe and perturb gene expression, physiology and behavior in these species. Such developments begin to provide an integrated view of the molecular and cellular underpinnings of complex social behavior.

Toward a theory of labor market institutions

Standard economic analysis holds that labor market rigidities are harmfulfor job creation and typically increase unemployment. But many orthodoxreforms of the labor market have proved difficult to implement because ofpolitical opposition. For these reasons it is important to explain why weobserve such regulations. In this paper I outline a theory of how they may arise and why they fit together. This theory is fully developed in aforthcoming book (Saint-Paul (2000)), to which the reader is referred forfurther details.

The implicit theory of historical change in the work of Alan S. Milward

Alan S. Milward was an economic historian who developed an implicit theory ofhistorical change. His interpretation which was neither liberal nor Marxist positedthat social, political, and economic change, for it to be sustainable, had to be agradual process rather than one resulting from a sudden, cataclysmicrevolutionary event occurring in one sector of the economy or society. Benignchange depended much less on natural resource endowment or technologicaldevelopments than on the ability of state institutions to respond to changingpolitical demands from within each society. State bureaucracies were fundamentalto formulating those political demands and advising politicians of ways to meetthem. Since each society was different there was no single model of developmentto be adopted or which could be imposed successfully by one nation-state onothers, either through force or through foreign aid programs. Nor coulddevelopment be promoted simply by copying the model of a more successfuleconomy. Each nation-state had to find its own response to the political demandsarising from within its society. Integration occurred when a number of nation states shared similar political objectives which they could not meet individuallybut could meet collectively. It was not simply the result of their increasinginterdependence. It was how and whether nation-states responded to thesedomestic demands which determined the nature of historical change.

A comment on the Nash program and the theory of implementation

The mechanisms in the Nash program for cooperative games are madecompatible with the framework of the theory of implementation. This is donethrough a reinterpretation of the characteristic function that avoids feasibilityproblems, thereby allowing an analysis that focuses exclusively on the payoff space. In this framework, we show that the core is the only majorcooperative solution that is Maskin monotonic. Thus, implementation of mostcooperative solutions must rely on refinements of the Nash equilibrium concept(like most papers in the Nash program do). Finally, the mechanisms in theNash program are adapted into the model.