Variabilidade de processos

Unidade 4

Caracterização estatística de processos sísmicos via Distribuição Generalizada de Pareto. Estudo de caso: João Câmara-RN

The work is to make a brief discussion of methods to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Being addressed the following techniques: Moments (moments), Maximum Likelihood (MLE), Biased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMB), Unbiased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMU), Mean Power Density Divergence (MDPD), Median (MED), Pickands (PICKANDS), Maximum Penalized Likelihood (MPLE), Maximum Goodness-of-fit (MGF) and the Maximum Entropy (POME) technique, the focus of this manuscript. By way of illustration adjustments were made for the Generalized Pareto distribution, for a sequence of earthquakes intraplacas which occurred in the city of João Câmara in the northeastern region of Brazil, which was monitored continuously for two years (1987 and 1988). It was found that the MLE and POME were the most efficient methods, giving them basically mean squared errors. Based on the threshold of 1.5 degrees was estimated the seismic risk for the city, and estimated the level of return to earthquakes of intensity 1.5°, 2.0°, 2.5°, 3.0° and the most intense earthquake never registered in the city, which occurred in November 1986 with magnitude of about 5.2º

Misclassification probability as obese or lean in hypercaloric and normocaloric diet

The aim of the present study was to determine the classification error probabilities, as lean or obese, in hypercaloric diet-induced obesity, which depends on the variable used to characterize animal obesity. In addition, the misclassification probabilities in animals submitted to normocaloric diet were also evaluated. Male Wistar rats were randomly distributed into two groups: normal diet (ND; n=3 1; 3,5 Kcal/g) and hypercaloric diet (HD; n=31; 4,6 Kcal/g). The ND group received commercial Labina rat feed and HD animals a cycle of five hypercaloric diets for a 14-week period. The variables analysed were body weight, body composition, body weight to length ratio, Lee index, body mass index and misclassification probability A 5% significance level was used. The hypercaloric pellet-diet cycle promoted increase of body weight, carcass fat, body weight to length ratio and Lee index. The total misclassification probabilities ranged from 19.21 % to 40.91 %. In Conclusion, the results of this experiment show that rnisclassification probabilities Occur when dietary manipulation is used to promote obesity in animals. This misjudgement ranges from 19.49% to 40.52% in hypercaloric diet and 18.94% to 41.30% in normocaloric diet.

Estimativa da probabilidade do evento extremo de precipitação de janeiro de 2000 no Vale do Paraíba, baseada na distribuição generalizada de pareto

Um evento extremo de precipitação ocorreu na primeira semana do ano 2000, de 1º a 5 de janeiro, no Vale do Paraíba, parte leste do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, causando enorme impacto socioeconômico, com mortes e destruição. Este trabalho estudou este evento em 10 estações meteorológicas selecionadas que foram consideradas como aquelas tendo dados mais homogêneos do Que outras estações na região. O modelo de distribuição generalizada de Pareto (DGP) para valores extremos de precipitação de 5 dias foi desenvolvido, individualmente para cada uma dessas estações. Na modelagem da DGP, foi adotada abordagem não-estacionaria considerando o ciclo anual e tendência de longo prazo como co-variaveis. Uma conclusão desta investigação é que as quantidades de precipitação acumulada durante os 5 dias do evento estudado podem ser classificadas como extremamente raras para a região, com probabilidade de ocorrência menor do que 1% para maioria das estações, e menor do que 0,1% em três estações.

Optimality conditions for pareto nonsmooth nonconvex programming in banach spaces

In this paper, we consider a vector optimization problem where all functions involved are defined on Banach spaces. We obtain necessary and sufficient criteria for optimality in the form of Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions. We also introduce a nonsmooth dual problem and provide duality theorems.

Environmental management and operational performance in automotive companies in Brazil: The role of human resource management and lean manufacturing

The main objective of this study is to verify the influence of Environmental Management (EM) on Operational Performance (OP) in Brazilian automotive companies, analyzing whether Lean Manufacturing (LM) and Human Resources (HR) interfere in the greening of these companies. Therefore, a conceptual framework listing these concepts was proposed, and three research hypotheses were presented. A questionnaire was elaborated based on this theoretical background and sent to respondents occupying the highest positions in the production/operations areas of Brazilian automotive companies. The data, collected from 75 companies, were analyzed using structural equation modeling. The main results are as follows: (a) the model tested revealed an adequate goodness of fit, showing that overall, the relations proposed between EM and OP and between HR, LM and EM tend to be statistically valid; (b) EM tends to influence OP in a positive and statistically weak manner; (c) LM has a greater influence on EM when compared to the influence HR has over EM; (d) HR has a positive relationship over EM, but the statistical significance of this relationship is less than that of the other evaluated relationships. The originality of this paper lies in its gathering the concepts of EM, LM, HR and OP in a single study, as they generally tend not to be treated jointly. This paper also provided valid empirical evidence for a littlestudied context: the Brazilian automotive sector. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lean and green? Evidências empíricas do setor automotivo brasileiro

The aim of this paper is to verify whether the practices of lean manufacturing are positively associated with the adoption of environmental management practices in Brazilian companies in the automotive sector to test the hypothesis that by being lean the business tends to become green. To this purpose, a framework associating these concepts with the research hypothesis was proposed. The data collected from 75 companies were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling. The main results show that lean manufacturing (LM) is positively associated with environmental management (EM), but the explanation power of LM over EM is considered weak/moderate. In fact, being lean also means being green, but other organizational variables not considered in this study may influence the greening of organizations.

Análise da qualidade da informação no setor de saneamento básico: em busca da inteligência estratégica

Estudo da dimensão informacional do setor de saneamento básico, com o objetivo de analisar a qualidade da informação disponível em fontes de informação utilizadas no planejamento do setor. Para isso, foram analisadas as bases governamentais de informação, o Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Saneamento 2009 (SNIS), a Pesquisa Nacional de Saneamento Básico 2008 (PNSB), a Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios 2009 (PNAD) e o Censo Demográfico 2010, no âmbito nacional, e o Serviço de Informação do Estado do Pará 2009 (SIE). A análise foi realizada por meio do Diagrama de Pareto, do Diagrama de causa e efeito de Ishikawa e dos atributos de informação de atualidade, abrangência, confiabilidade, precisão e pertinência, sendo, ainda, investigada a opinião de especialistas do setor. Nos 15 problemas evidenciados na redução da qualidade da informação em saneamento básico, cinco deles são considerados vitais e influenciam os demais problemas, sendo eles: a) falta de interação com outras áreas; b) periodicidade inadequada de disseminação das informações; c) falta de detalhamento da informação; d) forma de coleta inadequada; e) organização da informação inadequada. A partir da constatação das fragilidades na dimensão informacional em saneamento básico, foi analisada a informação utilizada em dois instrumentos de planejamento do setor, o Plano Nacional de Saneamento Básico (PLANSAB) e o Plano Plurianual 2008/2011, do estado do Pará (PPA 2008/2011). A conclusão desta tese é que, no momento, as informações disponibilizadas para o planejamento do setor são desatualizadas, incompletas, imprecisas, não pertinentes e não confiáveis. Com isso, foram recomendadas ações de inteligência estratégica para melhorar a qualidade da informação do setor, definindo-se o quê e onde coletar, como sistematizar, analisar, disseminar, avaliar e monitorar as informações, visando contribuir para o planejamento, definição de investimentos, prestação dos serviços, regulação, fiscalização e controle social, de acordo com as diretrizes da Política Nacional de Saneamento Básico, Lei 11.445/2007, que tem como um dos princípios fundamentais a universalização do acesso da população aos serviços de saneamento básico.

Uma aplicação do planejamento de experimentos e carta de controle em uma indústria de cosmésticos: ciclo DMAIC

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEB

Otimização do processo de MRP (Material Requirement Planning) de embalagens: uma aplicação da metodologia lean six sigma em uma indústria de agronegócios

There is a growing search for continuous improvement within the companies which creates an obligation of reducing and when it is possible eliminating waste. Production Planning and Control Department (PCP) is not out of this question, making necessary the application of methods and creation of tools that eliminate steps which do not add value to the planning process. This paper aims to develop a tool which concentrates in just one place all the necessary information to make the packaging material requirement planning (MRP) in a agribusiness company. Besides, it also aims, in a more visual way and using devices that prevent mistakes (Poka-Yoke), to reduce the number of reviews and mistakes made by analysts. As a result, an Excel spreadsheet was developed. This spreadsheet shows what happens with the status of planning and receiving of packaging, giving some advices when some critical situation happens. The use of Lean Manufacturing Method and the action research method helped to well define the problem and to reduce the number of steps, spreadsheets and time of process in 80%, 60% and 75%, respectively

Aplicação do DMAIC em uma indústria farmacêutica

In an industry, being a big one or small one, the process improvement is always a focus for it to increase in the market. The improvement, if searched in a simple meaning, brings the unique meaning of change to better. However the meaning of process improvement can take much more than a superficial point of view. Kaizen, Process improvement, Continuous improvement, they are some denotations much more comprehensive of a such a term carried of so many meanings. A good concept of improvement if to search inside processes a more appropriate way, a more succinct, a more economic way to realize it. The idea is to make the process in a better way. In this graduation thesis, there will be presented a process improvement realized in a Vale do Paraíba company. For that, it was used the DMAIC to obtain, measure and control the process improvement. It should be noted that the goal is to present and discuss a process improvement

Melhoria do processo de reparo por meio da redução de Lead Time em uma empresa de som automotivo

The constant search for improvement and survival of the companies makes essential the utilization of cost reduction strategies and resources optimization. This study had as its objective the utilization of Lean Manufacturing tools for the repair process lead time reduction, in a car audio manufacturer. Performing an action research, the major problems were studied, such as the potential causes and the possible improvement activities, using the DMAIC methodology. An action plan was developed for all involved processes and, as a result, the objective was reached by making a direct impact on the customers’ satisfaction and adding a competitive differential for the company

Implementação da eficiência global de equipamento (OEE) no padrão de produção e análise de impactos

Nowadays, there is a need for improvements in production processes for companies to be competitive, as it is an obligation of businesses, it is necessary to know about the production processes accurately, to learn where improvements in work and thus have large impacts results. The calculation of efficiency of production lines is necessary to know as much about the progress of production and for product costing, when the measurement is not suitable, it generates negative impacts on the company. Due to the impact generated by this parameter, the graduation work carry out the study of change in a method that does not include all requirements necessary, by another method known as Overall Equipment Effectiveness, and according to studies, covering various parameters, showing become more consistent. These values are contained in the pattern production which is used to fund the product, thereby also occur financial impacts. Thus the work will study the change along with the analysis of impacts caused by the change