Decadal Variability in the Northeast Pacific in a Physical-Ecosystem Model: Role of Mixed Layer Depth and Trophic Interactions

A basin-wide interdecadal change in both the physical state and the ecology of the North Pacific occurred near the end of 1976. Here we use a physical-ecosystem model to examine whether changes in the physical environment associated with the 1976-1977 transition influenced the lower trophic levels of the food web and if so by what means. The physical component is an ocean general circulation model, while the biological component contains 10 compartments: two phytoplankton, two zooplankton, two detritus pools, nitrate, ammonium, silicate, and carbon dioxide. The model is forced with observed atmospheric fields during 1960-1999. During spring, there is a similar to 40% reduction in plankton biomass in all four plankton groups during 1977-1988 relative to 1970-1976 in the central Gulf of Alaska (GOA). The epoch difference in plankton appears to be controlled by the mixed layer depth. Enhanced Ekman pumping after 1976 caused the halocline to shoal, and thus the mixed layer depth, which extends to the top of the halocline in late winter, did not penetrate as deep in the central GOA. As a result, more phytoplankton remained in the euphotic zone, and phytoplankton biomass began to increase earlier in the year after the 1976 transition. Zooplankton biomass also increased, but then grazing pressure led to a strong decrease in phytoplankton by April followed by a drop in zooplankton by May: Essentially, the mean seasonal cycle of plankton biomass was shifted earlier in the year. As the seasonal cycle progressed, the difference in plankton concentrations between epochs reversed sign again, leading to slightly greater zooplankton biomass during summer in the later epoch.

Mixed effects model in negative exponential curve

Despite many researches on development in education and psychology, not often is the methodology tested with real data. A major barrier to test the growth model is that the design of study includes repeated observations and the nature of the growth is nonlinear. The repeat measurements on a nonlinear model require sophisticated statistical methods. In this study, we present mixed effects model in a negative exponential curve to describe the development of children's reading skills. This model can describe the nature of the growth on children's reading skills and account for intra-individual and inter-individual variation. We also apply simple techniques including cross-validation, regression, and graphical methods to determine the most appropriate curve for data, to find efficient initial values of parameters, and to select potential covariates. We illustrate with an example that motivated this research: a longitudinal study of academic skills from grade 1 to grade 12 in Connecticut public schools. ^

A Mixed Integer Quadratic Programming Model for the Low Autocorrelation Binary Sequence Problem

In this paper the low autocorrelation binary sequence problem (LABSP) is modeled as a mixed integer quadratic programming (MIQP) problem and proof of the model’s validity is given. Since the MIQP model is semidefinite, general optimization solvers can be used, and converge in a finite number of iterations. The experimental results show that IQP solvers, based on this MIQP formulation, are capable of optimally solving general/skew-symmetric LABSP instances of up to 30/51 elements in a moderate time. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): G.1.6, I.2.8.

Vocabulary learning through use of the picture-word inductive model for young English learners in China: A mixed methods examination using Cognitive Load Theory

English has been taught as a core and compulsory subject in China for decades. Recently, the demand for English in China has increased dramatically. China now has the world's largest English-learning population. The traditional English-teaching method cannot continue to be the only approach because it merely focuses on reading, grammar and translation, which cannot meet English learners and users' needs (i.e., communicative competence and skills in speaking and writing). ^ This study was conducted to investigate if the Picture-Word Inductive Model (PWIM), a new pedagogical method using pictures and inductive thinking, would benefit English learners in China in terms of potential higher output in speaking and writing. With the gauge of Cognitive Load Theory (CLT), specifically, its redundancy effect, I investigated whether processing words and a picture concurrently would present a cognitive overload for English learners in China. ^ I conducted a mixed methods research study. A quasi-experiment (pretest, intervention for seven weeks, and posttest) was conducted using 234 students in four groups in Lianyungang, China (58 fourth graders and 57 seventh graders as an experimental group with PWIM and 59 fourth graders and 60 seventh graders as a control group with the traditional method). No significant difference in the effects of PWIM was found on vocabulary acquisition based on grade levels. Observations, questionnaires with open-ended questions, and interviews were deployed to answer the three remaining research questions. A few students felt cognitively overloaded when they encountered too many writing samples, too many new words at one time, repeated words, mismatches between words and pictures, and so on. Many students listed and exemplified numerous strengths of PWIM, but a few mentioned weaknesses of PWIM. The students expressed the idea that PWIM had a positive effect on their English teaching. ^ As integrated inferences, qualitative findings were used to explain the quantitative results that there were no significant differences of the effects of the PWIM between the experimental and control groups in both grade levels, from four contextual aspects: time constraints on PWIM implementation, teachers' resistance, how to use PWIM and PWIM implemented in a classroom over 55 students.^

Vocabulary Learning through Use of the Picture-Word Inductive Model for Young English Learners in China: A Mixed Methods Examination Using Cognitive Load Theory

English has been taught as a core and compulsory subject in China for decades. Recently, the demand for English in China has increased dramatically. China now has the world’s largest English-learning population. The traditional English-teaching method cannot continue to be the only approach because it merely focuses on reading, grammar and translation, which cannot meet English learners and users’ needs (i.e., communicative competence and skills in speaking and writing). This study was conducted to investigate if the Picture-Word Inductive Model (PWIM), a new pedagogical method using pictures and inductive thinking, would benefit English learners in China in terms of potential higher output in speaking and writing. With the gauge of Cognitive Load Theory (CLT), specifically, its redundancy effect, I investigated whether processing words and a picture concurrently would present a cognitive overload for English learners in China. I conducted a mixed methods research study. A quasi-experiment (pretest, intervention for seven weeks, and posttest) was conducted using 234 students in four groups in Lianyungang, China (58 fourth graders and 57 seventh graders as an experimental group with PWIM and 59 fourth graders and 60 seventh graders as a control group with the traditional method). No significant difference in the effects of PWIM was found on vocabulary acquisition based on grade levels. Observations, questionnaires with open-ended questions, and interviews were deployed to answer the three remaining research questions. A few students felt cognitively overloaded when they encountered too many writing samples, too many new words at one time, repeated words, mismatches between words and pictures, and so on. Many students listed and exemplified numerous strengths of PWIM, but a few mentioned weaknesses of PWIM. The students expressed the idea that PWIM had a positive effect on their English teaching. As integrated inferences, qualitative findings were used to explain the quantitative results that there were no significant differences of the effects of the PWIM between the experimental and control groups in both grade levels, from four contextual aspects: time constraints on PWIM implementation, teachers’ resistance, how to use PWIM and PWIM implemented in a classroom over 55 students.

A mixed logit model for predicting exit choice during building evacuations.

Knowledge on human behaviour in emergency is crucial to increase the safety of buildings and transportation systems. Decision making during evacuations implies different choices, of which one of the most important concerns the escape route. The choice of a route may involve local decisions between alternative exits from an enclosed environment. This work investigates the influence of environmental (presence of smoke, emergency lighting and distance of exit) and social factors (interaction with evacuees close to the exits and with those near the decision-maker) on local exit choice. This goal is pursued using an online stated preference survey carried out making use of non-immersive virtual reality. A sample of 1,503 participants is obtained and a Mixed Logit Model is calibrated using these data. The model shows that presence of smoke, emergency lighting, distance of exit, number of evacuees near the exits and the decision-maker, and flow of evacuees through the exits significantly affect local exit choice. Moreover, the model points out that decision making is affected by a high degree of behavioural uncertainty. Our findings support the improvement of evacuation models and the accuracy of their results, which can assist in designing and managing building and transportation systems. The main contribution of this work is to enrich the understanding of how local exit choices are made and how behavioural uncertainty affects these choices.

Exploring non-cancer pain conditions in a community sample : critiquing a current conceptual model of the acute to chronic pain transition and examining predictors of chronicity

This program of research examines the experience of chronic pain in a community sample. While, it is clear that like patient samples, chronic pain in non-patient samples is also associated with psychological distress and physical disability, the experience of pain across the total spectrum of pain conditions (including acute and episodic pain conditions) and during the early course of chronic pain is less clear. Information about these aspects of the pain experience is important because effective early intervention for chronic pain relies on identification of people who are likely to progress to chronicity post-injury. A conceptual model of the transition from acute to chronic pain was proposed by Gatchel (1991a). In brief, Gatchel’s model describes three stages that individuals who have a serious pain experience move through, each with worsening psychological dysfunction and physical disability. The aims of this program of research were to describe the experience of pain in a community sample in order to obtain pain-specific data on the problem of pain in Queensland, and to explore the usefulness of Gatchel’s Model in a non-clinical sample. Additionally, five risk factors and six protective factors were proposed as possible extensions to Gatchel’s Model. To address these aims, a prospective longitudinal mixed-method research design was used. Quantitative data was collected in Phase 1 via a comprehensive postal questionnaire. Phase 2 consisted of a follow-up questionnaire 3 months post-baseline. Phase 3 consisted of semi-structured interviews with a subset of the original sample 12 months post follow-up, which used qualitative data to provide a further in-depth examination of the experience and process of chronic pain from respondents’ point of view. The results indicate chronic pain is associated with high levels of anxiety and depressive symptoms. However, the levels of disability reported by this Queensland sample were generally lower than those reported by clinical samples and consistent with disability data reported in a New South Wales population-based study. With regard to the second aim of this program of research, while some elements of the pain experience of this sample were consistent with that described by Gatchel’s Model, overall the model was not a good fit with the experience of this non-clinical sample. The findings indicate that passive coping strategies (minimising activity), catastrophising, self efficacy, optimism, social support, active strategies (use of distraction) and the belief that emotions affect pain may be important to consider in understanding the processes that underlie the transition to and continuation of chronic pain.

An effective approach to verbose queries using a limited dependencies language model

Intuitively, any `bag of words' approach in IR should benefit from taking term dependencies into account. Unfortunately, for years the results of exploiting such dependencies have been mixed or inconclusive. To improve the situation, this paper shows how the natural language properties of the target documents can be used to transform and enrich the term dependencies to more useful statistics. This is done in three steps. The term co-occurrence statistics of queries and documents are each represented by a Markov chain. The paper proves that such a chain is ergodic, and therefore its asymptotic behavior is unique, stationary, and independent of the initial state. Next, the stationary distribution is taken to model queries and documents, rather than their initial distri- butions. Finally, ranking is achieved following the customary language modeling paradigm. The main contribution of this paper is to argue why the asymptotic behavior of the document model is a better representation then just the document's initial distribution. A secondary contribution is to investigate the practical application of this representation in case the queries become increasingly verbose. In the experiments (based on Lemur's search engine substrate) the default query model was replaced by the stable distribution of the query. Just modeling the query this way already resulted in significant improvements over a standard language model baseline. The results were on a par or better than more sophisticated algorithms that use fine-tuned parameters or extensive training. Moreover, the more verbose the query, the more effective the approach seems to become.

A model of teacher professional development based on the principles of lesson study

The researcher’s professional role as an Education Officer was the impetus for this study. Designing and implementing professional development activities is a significant component of the researcher’s position description and as a result of reflection and feedback from participants and colleagues, the creation of a more effective model of professional development became the focus for this study. Few studies have examined all three links between the purposes of professional development that is, increasing teacher knowledge, improving teacher practice, and improving student outcomes. This study is significant in that it investigates the nature of the growth of teachers who participated in a model of professional development which was based upon the principles of Lesson Study. The research provides qualitative and empirical data to establish some links between teacher knowledge, teacher practice, and student learning outcomes. Teacher knowledge in this study refers to mathematics content knowledge as well as pedagogical-content knowledge. The outcomes for students include achievement outcomes, attitudinal outcomes, and behavioural outcomes. As the study was conducted at one school-site, existence proof research was the focus of the methodology and data collection. Developing over the 2007 school year, with five teacher-participants and approximately 160 students from Year Levels 6 to 9, the Lesson Study-principled model of professional development provided the teacher-participants with on-site, on-going, and reflective learning based on their classroom environment. The focus area for the professional development was strategising the engagement with and solution of worded mathematics problems. A design experiment was used to develop the professional development as an intervention of prevailing teacher practice for which data were collected prior to and after the period of intervention. A model of teacher change was developed as an underpinning framework for the development of the study, and was useful in making decisions about data collection and analyses. Data sources consisted of questionnaires, pre-tests and post-tests, interviews, and researcher observations and field notes. The data clearly showed that: content knowledge and pedagogical-content knowledge were increased among the teacher-participants; teacher practice changed in a positive manner; and that a majority of students demonstrated improved learning outcomes. The positive changes to teacher practice are described in this study as the demonstrated use of mixed pedagogical practices rather than a polarisation to either traditional pedagogical practices or contemporary pedagogical practices. The improvement in student learning outcomes was most significant as improved achievement outcomes as indicated by the comparison of pre-test and post-test scores. The effectiveness of the Lesson Study-principled model of professional development used in this study was evaluated using Guskey’s (2005) Five Levels of Professional Development Evaluation.

Theoretical analysis of the motion and evaporation of exhaled respiratory droplets of mixed composition

The dynamics of droplets exhaled from the respiratory system during coughing or talking is addressed. A mathematical model is presented accounting for the motion of a droplet in conjunction with its evaporation. Droplet evaporation and motion are accounted for under two scenarios: 1) A well mixed droplet and 2) A droplet with inner composition variation. A multiple shells model was implemented to account for internal mass and heat transfer and for concentration and temperature gradients inside the droplet. The trajectories of the droplets are computed for a range of conditions and the spatial distribution and residence times of such droplets are evaluated.

An effective approach to verbose queries using a limited dependencies language model

Intuitively, any ‘bag of words’ approach in IR should benefit from taking term dependencies into account. Unfortunately, for years the results of exploiting such dependencies have been mixed or inconclusive. To improve the situation, this paper shows how the natural language properties of the target documents can be used to transform and enrich the term dependencies to more useful statistics. This is done in three steps. The term co-occurrence statistics of queries and documents are each represented by a Markov chain. The paper proves that such a chain is ergodic, and therefore its asymptotic behavior is unique, stationary, and independent of the initial state. Next, the stationary distribution is taken to model queries and documents, rather than their initial distributions. Finally, ranking is achieved following the customary language modeling paradigm. The main contribution of this paper is to argue why the asymptotic behavior of the document model is a better representation then just the document’s initial distribution. A secondary contribution is to investigate the practical application of this representation in case the queries become increasingly verbose. In the experiments (based on Lemur’s search engine substrate) the default query model was replaced by the stable distribution of the query. Just modeling the query this way already resulted in significant improvements over a standard language model baseline. The results were on a par or better than more sophisticated algorithms that use fine-tuned parameters or extensive training. Moreover, the more verbose the query, the more effective the approach seems to become.

Right-angle crash vulnerability of motorcycles at signalized intersections : mixed logit analysis

Motorcycles are particularly vulnerable in right-angle crashes at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to explore how variations in roadway characteristics, environmental factors, traffic factors, maneuver types, human factors as well as driver demographics influence the right-angle crash vulnerability of motorcycles at intersections. The problem is modeled using a mixed logit model with a binary choice category formulation to differentiate how an at-fault vehicle collides with a not-at-fault motorcycle in comparison to other collision types. The mixed logit formulation allows randomness in the parameters and hence takes into account the underlying heterogeneities potentially inherent in driver behavior, and other unobserved variables. A likelihood ratio test reveals that the mixed logit model is indeed better than the standard logit model. Night time riding shows a positive association with the vulnerability of motorcyclists. Moreover, motorcyclists are particularly vulnerable on single lane roads, on the curb and median lanes of multi-lane roads, and on one-way and two-way road type relative to divided-highway. Drivers who deliberately run red light as well as those who are careless towards motorcyclists especially when making turns at intersections increase the vulnerability of motorcyclists. Drivers appear more restrained when there is a passenger onboard and this has decreased the crash potential with motorcyclists. The presence of red light cameras also significantly decreases right-angle crash vulnerabilities of motorcyclists. The findings of this study would be helpful in developing more targeted countermeasures for traffic enforcement, driver/rider training and/or education, safety awareness programs to reduce the vulnerability of motorcyclists.