Global data compilation of benthic data sets II

In this study we present a global distribution pattern and budget of the minimum flux of particulate organic carbon to the sea floor (J POC alpha). The estimations are based on regionally specific correlations between the diffusive oxygen flux across the sediment-water interface, the total organic carbon content in surface sediments, and the oxygen concentration in bottom waters. For this, we modified the principal equation of Cai and Reimers [1995] as a basic monod reaction rate, applied within 11 regions where in situ measurements of diffusive oxygen uptake exist. By application of the resulting transfer functions to other regions with similar sedimentary conditions and areal interpolation, we calculated a minimum global budget of particulate organic carbon that actually reaches the sea floor of ~0.5 GtC yr**-1 (>1000 m water depth (wd)), whereas approximately 0.002-0.12 GtC yr**-1 is buried in the sediments (0.01-0.4% of surface primary production). Despite the fact that our global budget is in good agreement with previous studies, we found conspicuous differences among the distribution patterns of primary production, calculations based on particle trap collections of the POC flux, and J POC alpha of this study. These deviations, especially located at the southeastern and southwestern Atlantic Ocean, the Greenland and Norwegian Sea and the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean, strongly indicate a considerable influence of lateral particle transport on the vertical link between surface waters and underlying sediments. This observation is supported by sediment trap data. Furthermore, local differences in the availability and quality of the organic matter as well as different transport mechanisms through the water column are discussed.

(Appendix) Gephyrocapsa coccolith abundance and holocene paleotemperature assessment

A global sea surface temperature calibration based on the relative abundance of different morphotypes within the coccolithophore genus Gephyrocapsa in Holocene deep-sea sediments is presented. There is evidence suggesting that absolute sea surface temperature for a given location can be calculated from the relative abundance of Gephyrocapsa morphotypes in sediment samples, with a standard error comparable to temperature estimates derived from other temperature proxies such as planktic foraminifera transfer functions. A total of 110 Holocene sediment samples were selected from the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans covering a mean sea surface temperature gradient from 13.6° to 29.3°C. Standard multiple linear regression analyses were applied to this data set, linking the relative abundance of Gephyrocapsa morphotypes to sea surface temperature. The best model revealed an r**2 of 0.83 with a standard residual error of 1.78°C for the estimation of mean sea surface temperature. This new proxy provides a unique opportunity for the reconstruction of paleotemperatures with a very small amount of sample material due to the minute size of coccoliths, permitting examination of thinly laminated sediments (e.g., a pinhead of material from laminated sediments for the reconstruction of annual sea surface temperature variations). Such fine-scale resolution is currently not possible with any other proxy. Application of this new paleotemperature proxy may allow new paleoenvironmental interpretations in the late Quaternary period and discrepancies between the different currently used paleotemperature proxies might be resolved.

Organic carbon accumulation in the South Atlantic Ocean

A compilation of 1118 surface sediment samples from the South Atlantic was used to map modern seafloor distribution of organic carbon content in this ocean basin. Using new data on Holocene sedimentation rates, we estimated the annual organic carbon accumulation in the pelagic realm (>3000 m water depth) to be approximately 1.8*10**12 g C/year. In the sediments underlying the divergence zone in the Eastern Equatorial Atlantic (EEA), only small amounts of organic carbon accumulate in spite of the high surface water productivity observed in that area. This implies that in the Eastern Equatorial Atlantic, organic carbon accumulation is strongly reduced by efficient degradation of organic matter prior to its burial. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), accumulation of organic carbon was higher than during the mid-Holocene along the continental margins of Africa and South America (Brazil) as well as in the equatorial region. In the Eastern Equatorial Atlantic in particular, large relative differences between LGM and mid-Holocene accumulation rates are found. This is probably to a great extent due to better preservation of organic matter related to changes in bottom water circulation and not just a result of strongly enhanced export productivity during the glacial period. On average, a two- to three-fold increase in organic carbon accumulation during the LGM compared to mid-Holocene conditions can be deduced from our cores. However, for the deep-sea sediments this cannot be solely attributed to a glacial productivity increase, as changes in South Atlantic deep-water circulation seem to result in better organic carbon preservation during the LGM.

(Table 1) Shell mass and chemistry of Globigerinoides sacculifer

Using bathymetric transects of surface sediments underlying similar sea surface temperatures but exposed to increasing dissolution, we examined the processes which affect the relationship between foraminiferal Mg/Ca and d18O. We found that Globigerinoides saccculifer calcifies over a relatively large range of water depth and that this is apparent in their Mg content. On the seafloor, foraminiferal Mg/Ca is substantially altered by dissolution with the degree of alteration increasing with water depth. Selective dissolution of the chamber calcite, formed in surface waters, shifts the shell's bulk Mg/Ca and d18O toward the chemistries of the secondary crust acquired in colder thermocline waters. The magnitude of this shift depends on both the range of temperatures over which the shell calcified and the degree to which it is subsequently dissolved. In spite of this shift the initial relationship between Mg/Ca and d18O, determined by their temperature dependence, is maintained. We conclude that paired measurements of d18O and Mg/Ca can be used for reconstructing d18Owater, though care must be taken to determine where in the water column the reconstruction applies.

Fearonomics and the Role of Nigeria's Private Sector in the Nigerian Ebola Response

Background: Outbreaks of infectious diseases such as Ebola have dramatic economic impacts on affected nations due to significant direct costs and indirect costs, as well as increased expenditure by the government to meet the health and security crisis. Despite its dense population, Nigeria was able to contain the outbreak swiftly and was declared Ebola free on 13th October 2014. Although Nigeria’s Ebola containment success was multifaceted, the private sector played a key role in Nigeria’s fight against Ebola. An epidemic of a disease like Ebola, not only consumes health resources but also detrimentally disrupts trade and travel to impact both public and private sector resulting in the ‘fearonomic’ effect of the contagion. In this thesis, I have defined ‘fearonomics’ or the ‘fearonomic effects’ of a disease as the intangible and intangible economic effects of both informed and misinformed aversion behavior exhibited by individuals, organizations, or countries during an outbreak. During an infectious disease outbreak, there is a significant potential for public-private sector collaborations that can help offset some of the government’s cost of controlling the epidemic.

Objective: The main objective of this study is to understand the ‘fearonomics’ of Ebola in Nigeria and to evaluate the role of the key private sector stakeholders in Nigeria’s Ebola response.

Methods: This retrospective qualitative study was conducted in Nigeria and utilizes grounded theory to look across different economic sectors in Nigeria to understand the impact of Ebola on Nigeria’s private sector and how it dealt with the various challenges posed by the disease and its ‘fearonomic effects'.

Results: Due to swift containment of Ebola in Nigeria, the economic impact of the disease was limited especially in comparison to the other Ebola-infected countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. However, the 2014 Ebola outbreak had more than a just direct impact on the country’s economy and despite the swift containment, no economic sector was immune to the disease’s fearonomic impact. The potential scale of the fearonomic impact of a disease like Ebola was one of the key motivators for the private sector engagement in the Ebola response.

The private sector in Nigeria played an essential role in facilitating the country’s response to Ebola. The private sector not only provided in-cash donations but significant in-kind support to both the Federal and State governments during the outbreak. Swift establishment of an Ebola Emergency Operation Centre (EEOC) was essential to the country’s response and was greatly facilitated by the private sector, showcasing the crucial role of private sector in the initial phase of an outbreak. The private sector contributed to Nigeria’s fight against Ebola not only by donating material assets but by continuing operations and partaking in knowledge sharing and advocacy. Some sector such as the private health sector, telecom sector, financial sector, oil and gas sector played a unique role in orchestrating the Nigerian Ebola response and were among the first movers during the outbreak.

This paper utilizes the lessons from Nigeria’s containment of Ebola to highlight the potential of public-private partnerships in preparedness, response, and recovery during an outbreak.

Dissolution index of Globigerina bulloides in recent and Last Glacial Maximum sediments

The modern Atlantic Ocean, dominated by the interactions of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), plays a key role in redistributing heat from the Southern to the Northern Hemisphere. In order to reconstruct the evolution of the relative importance of these two water masses, the NADW/AABW transition, reflected by the calcite lysocline, was investigated by the Globigerina bulloides dissolution index (BDX?). The depth level of the Late Glacial Maximum (LGM) calcite lysocline was elevated by several hundred metres, indicating a more corrosive water mass present at modern NADW level. Overall, the small range of BDX? data and the gradual decrease in preservation below the calcite lysocline point to a less stratified Atlantic Ocean during the LGM. Similar preservation patterns in the West and East Atlantic demonstrate that the modern west-east asymmetry did not exist due to an expansion of southern deep waters compensating for the decrease in NADW formation.

Mapping of C4 plant input from North West Africa into North East Atlantic sediments

Mapping the abundance of 13C in leaf-wax components in surface sediments recovered from the seafloor off northwest Africa (0-35°N) reveals a clear pattern of delta13C distribution, indicating systematic changes in the proportions of terrestrial C3 and C4 plant input. At 20°N latitude, we find that isotopically enriched products characteristic of C4 plants account for more than 50% of the terrigenous inputs. This signal extends westward beneath the path of the dust-laden Sahara Air Layer (SAL). High C4 contributions, apparently carried by January trade winds, also extend far into the Gulf of Guinea. Similar distributions are obtained if summed pollen counts for the Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae and the Poaceae are used as an independent C4 proxy. We conclude that the specificity of the latitudinal distribution of vegetation in North West Africa and the pathways of the wind systems (trade winds and SAL) are responsible for the observed isotopic patterns observed in the surface sediments. Molecular-isotopic maps on the marine-sedimentary time horizons (e.g., during the last glacial maximum) are thus a robust tool for assessing the phytogeographic changes on the tropical and sub-tropical continents, which have important implications for the changes in climatic and atmospheric conditions.

Phytoplanktonic microfossil groups of sediments from the South and Equatorial Atlantic

Individual planktonic microfossil species, or assemblage groups of different species, are often used to, qualitatively and/or quantitatively, reconstruct past (sub)surface-water conditions of the world's oceans and seas. Until now, little information has been available on the surface sediment distribution patterns and paleoenvironmental reconstruction potential of coccolith, calcareous dinoflagellate cyst and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst assemblages of the South and equatorial Atlantic, especially at the species level. This paper (i) summarizes the distributions of these three phytoplanktonic microfossil groups in numerous Atlantic surface sediments from 20°N-50°S and 30°E-65°W and determines their relationship with the physicochemical and trophic conditions of the overlying (sub)surface-waters, and (ii) determines the synecology of the three phytoplankton groups by carrying out statistical analyses (i.e. detrended and canonical correspondence analyses) on all groups simultaneously. Ecological relationships are additionally strengthened by statistically comparing the distribution patterns of the phytoplankton groups with those of planktonic foraminifera (Pflaumann et al. 1996; Niebler et al. 1998), as the ecological preferences of the latter are much better known. Many of the analyzed phytoplanktonic microfossil species or groups of species in the surface sediments do show restricted distributions which primarily reflect the environmental conditions of the upper water masses above them (e.g. sea-surface temperature, productivity, stratification). The acquired 'reference' data sets are large and diverse enough to allow future development of transfer functions for the reconstruction of past surface-water conditions, and show that there is still an enormous paleoenvironmental reconstruction potential concealed in many fossil coccolith and dinoflagellate cyst assemblages.

Modern major element concentrations and ratios measured in Atlantic surface sediments (36°N-49°S)

Numerous studies use major element concentrations measured on continental margin sediments to reconstruct terrestrial climate variations. The choice and interpretation of climate proxies however differ from site to site. Here we map the concentrations of major elements (Ca, Fe, Al, Si, Ti, K) in Atlantic surface sediments (36°N-49°S) to assess the factors influencing the geochemistry of Atlantic hemipelagic sediments and the potential of elemental ratios to reconstruct different terrestrial climate regimes. High concentrations of terrigenous elements and low Ca concentrations along the African and South American margins reflect the dominance of terrigenous input in these regions. Single element concentrations and elemental ratios including Ca (e.g., Fe/Ca) are too sensitive to dilution effects (enhanced biological productivity, carbonate dissolution) to allow reliable reconstructions of terrestrial climate. Other elemental ratios reflect the composition of terrigenous material and mirror the climatic conditions within the continental catchment areas. The Atlantic distribution of Ti/Al supports its use as a proxy for eolian versus fluvial input in regions of dust deposition that are not affected by the input of mafic rock material. The spatial distributions of Al/Si and Fe/K reflect the relative input of intensively weathered material from humid regions versus slightly weathered particles from drier areas. High biogenic opal input however influences the Al/Si ratio. Fe/K is sensitive to the input of mafic material and the topography of Andean river drainage basins. Both ratios are suitable to reconstruct African and South American climatic zones characterized by different intensities of chemical weathering in well-understood environmental settings.

Witness Anonymity at the International Criminal Court: Due Process for Defendants, Witnesses or Both?

The question of how far and in what way to extend protection to witnesses in trials has manifested itself in institutions as diverse as the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), the Committee of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), the ad hoc criminal tribunals (International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, the Special Court for Sierra Leone), and most recently the International Criminal Court (ICC). This is not surprising; as David Lusty has pointed out in his seminal analysis of the use of anonymous accusers, the question has arisen in almost every legal deliberative body for the past two thousand years.

Building peace by supporting post-conflict electoral processes

Les élections post-conflit ou élections de sortie de crise organisées sous l’égide de la communauté internationale en vue de rétablir la paix dans les pays sortant de violents conflits armés ont un bilan mixte caractérisé par le succès ou l’échec selon les cas. Ce bilan mitigé représente le problème principal auquel cette recherche tente de répondre à travers les questions suivantes : l’assistance électorale étrangère est-elle efficace comme outil de rétablissement de la paix dans les sociétés post-conflit? Qu’est ce qui détermine le succès ou l’échec des élections post-conflit à contribuer efficacement au rétablissement de la paix dans les sociétés déchirées par la guerre? Pour résoudre cette problématique, cette thèse développe une théorie de l’assistance électorale en période post-conflit centrée sur les parties prenantes à la fois du conflit armé et du processus électoral. Cette théorie affirme que l’élément clé pour le succès des élections post-conflit dans le rétablissement de la paix est le renforcement de la capacité de négociation des parties prenantes à la fois dans le processus de paix et dans le processus électoral post-conflit. Dans les situations post-conflit, une assistance électorale qui se voudrait complète et efficace devra combiner à la fois le processus électoral et le processus de paix. L’assistance électorale sera inefficace si elle se concentre uniquement sur les aspects techniques du processus électoral visant à garantir des élections libres, transparentes et équitables. Pour être efficace, l’accent devra également être mis sur les facteurs supplémentaires qui peuvent empêcher la récurrence de la guerre, tels que l’habilité des individus et des groupes à négocier et à faire des compromis sur les grandes questions qui peuvent menacer le processus de paix. De fait, même des élections transparentes comme celles de 1997 au Liberia saluées par la communauté internationale n’avaient pas réussi à établir des conditions suffisantes pour éviter la reprise des hostilités. C’est pourquoi, pour être efficace, l’assistance électorale dans les situations de post-conflit doit prendre une approche globale qui priorise l’éducation civique, la sensibilisation sur les droits et responsabilités des citoyens dans une société démocratique, le débat public sur les questions qui divisent, la participation politique, la formation au dialogue politique, et toute autre activité qui pourrait aider les différentes parties à renforcer leur capacité de négociation et de compromis. Une telle assistance électorale fera une contribution à la consolidation de la paix, même dans le contexte des élections imparfaites, comme celles qui se sont détenues en Sierra Leone en 2002 ou au Libéria en 2005. Bien que la littérature sur l’assistance électorale n’ignore guère l’importance des parties prenantes aux processus électoraux post-conflit (K. Kumar, 1998, 2005), elle a fortement mis l’accent sur les mécanismes institutionnels. En effet, la recherche académique et professionnelle est abondante sur la réforme des lois électorales, la reforme constitutionnelle, et le développement des administrations électorales tels que les commissions électorales, ainsi que l’observation électorale et autres mécanismes de prévention de la fraude électorale, etc. (Carothers & Gloppen, 2007). En d’autres termes, les décideurs et les chercheurs ont attribué jusqu’à présent plus d’importance à la conception et au fonctionnement du cadre institutionnel et des procédures électorales. Cette thèse affirme qu’il est désormais temps de prendre en compte les participants eux-mêmes au processus électoral à travers des types d’assistance électorale qui favoriseraient leur capacité à participer à un débat pacifique et à trouver des compromis aux questions litigieuses. Cette approche plus globale de l’assistance électorale qui replace l’élection post-conflit dans le contexte plus englobant du processus de paix a l’avantage de transformer le processus électoral non pas seulement en une expérience d’élection de dirigeants légitimes, mais aussi, et surtout, en un processus au cours duquel les participants apprennent à régler leurs points de vue contradictoires à travers le débat politique dans un cadre institutionnel avec des moyens légaux et légitimes. Car, si le cadre institutionnel électoral est important, il reste que le résultat du processus électoral dépendra essentiellement de la volonté des participants à se conformer au cadre institutionnel et aux règles électorales.

Credible Commitments and Post-Conflict Refugee Return: A Statistical and Network Analysis

I examine determinants of refugee return after conflicts. I argue that institutional constraints placed on the executive provide a credible commitment that signals to refugees that the conditions required for durable return will be created. This results in increased return flows for refugees. Further, when credible commitments are stronger in the country of origin than in the country of asylum, the level of return increases. Finally, I find that specific commitments made to refugees in the peace agreement do not lead to increased return because they are not credible without institutional constraints. Using data on returnees that has only recently been made available, along with network analysis and an original coding of the provisions in refugee agreements, statistical results are found to support this theory. An examination of cases in Djibouti, Sierra Leone, and Liberia provides additional support for this argument.