Explaining the Transition Between Exchange Rate Regimes

This paper studies the transition between exchange rate regimes using a Markov chain model with time-varying transition probabilities. The probabilities are parameterized as nonlinear functions of variables suggested by the currency crisis and optimal currency area literature. Results using annual data indicate that inflation, and to a lesser extent, output growth and trade openness help explain the exchange rate regime transition dynamics.

Studies on the Intercompartmental Exchange of Trace Metals in an Estuarine System

The present study is an attempt at investigating the intercompartmental exchange of trace metals (copper, cadmium, zinc, lead and nickel) in the Cochin estuary. The nature and extent of distribution in the different compartments with special reference to the transport from environmental compartments to biological compartments have been dealt with in detail. The suitability of the shells of Villorita cyprinoides var cochinensis (Hanely) in pollution monitoring activities has been assessed. A mathematical model (SAAMPLE - Shells in the Assessment of Aquatic Metal Pollution Levels) based on kinetic laws that govern the intercompartmental exchange has been proposed.

Microscopic origin of exchange bias in core/shell nanoparticles

We report the results of Monte Carlo simulations with the aim to clarify the microscopic origin of exchange bias in the magnetization hysteresis loops of a model of individual core/shell nanoparticles. Increase of the exchange coupling across the core/shell interface leads to an enhancement of exchange bias and to an increasing asymmetry between the two branches of the loops which is due to different reversal mechanisms. A detailed study of the magnetic order of the interfacial spins shows compelling evidence that the existence of a net magnetization due to uncompensated spins at the shell interface is responsible for both phenomena and allows to quantify the loop shifts directly in terms of microscopic parameters with striking agreement with the macroscopic observed values.

Information Exchange and Fusion in Dynamic and Heterogeneous Distributed Environments

Context awareness, dynamic reconfiguration at runtime and heterogeneity are key characteristics of future distributed systems, particularly in ubiquitous and mobile computing scenarios. The main contributions of this dissertation are theoretical as well as architectural concepts facilitating information exchange and fusion in heterogeneous and dynamic distributed environments. Our main focus is on bridging the heterogeneity issues and, at the same time, considering uncertain, imprecise and unreliable sensor information in information fusion and reasoning approaches. A domain ontology is used to establish a common vocabulary for the exchanged information. We thereby explicitly support different representations for the same kind of information and provide Inter-Representation Operations that convert between them. Special account is taken of the conversion of associated meta-data that express uncertainty and impreciseness. The Unscented Transformation, for example, is applied to propagate Gaussian normal distributions across highly non-linear Inter-Representation Operations. Uncertain sensor information is fused using the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence as it allows explicit modelling of partial and complete ignorance. We also show how to incorporate the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence into probabilistic reasoning schemes such as Hidden Markov Models in order to be able to consider the uncertainty of sensor information when deriving high-level information from low-level data. For all these concepts we provide architectural support as a guideline for developers of innovative information exchange and fusion infrastructures that are particularly targeted at heterogeneous dynamic environments. Two case studies serve as proof of concept. The first case study focuses on heterogeneous autonomous robots that have to spontaneously form a cooperative team in order to achieve a common goal. The second case study is concerned with an approach for user activity recognition which serves as baseline for a context-aware adaptive application. Both case studies demonstrate the viability and strengths of the proposed solution and emphasize that the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence should be preferred to pure probability theory in applications involving non-linear Inter-Representation Operations.

Media bias and central bank response. Evidence from the nominal exchange rate behavior in Colombia

Since 1991 Colombia has had a market-determined Peso - US Dollar Nominal Exchange Rate (NER), after more than 20 years of controlled and multiple exchange rates. The behavior (revaluation / devaluation) of the NER is constantly reported in news, editorials and op-eds of major newspapers of the nation with particular attention to revaluation. The uneven reporting of revaluation episodes can be explained by the existence of an interest group particulary affected by revaluation, looking to increase awareness and sympathy for help from public institutions. Using the number of news and op-eds from a major Colombian newspaper, it is shown that there is an over-reporting of revaluation episodes in contrast to devaluation ones. Secondly, using text analysis upon the content of the news, it is also shown that the words devaluation and revaluation are far apart in the distribution of words within the news; and revaluation is highly correlated with words related to: public institutions, exporters and the need of assistance. Finally it is also shown that the probability of the central bank buying US dollars to lessen revaluation effects increases with the number of news; even though the central bank allegedly intervenes in the exchange rate market only to tame volatility or accumulate international reserves.

A simple test of momentum in foreign exchange markets

This study proposes a new method for testing for the presence of momentum in nominal exchange rates, using a probabilistic approach. We illustrate our methodology estimating a binary response model using information on local currency / US dollar exchange rates of eight emerging economies. After controlling for important variables a§ecting the behavior of exchange rates in the short-run, we show evidence of exchange rate inertia; in other words, we Önd that exchange rate momentum is a common feature in this group of emerging economies, and thus foreign exchange traders participating in these markets are able to make excess returns by following technical analysis strategies. We Önd that the presence of momentum is asymmetric, being stronger in moments of currency depreciation than of appreciation. This behavior may be associated with central bank intervention

The relationship between diffuse spectral reflectance of the soil and its cation exchange capacity is scale-dependent

Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) is increasingly being used to predict numerous soil physical, chemical and biochemical properties. However, soil properties and processes vary at different scales and, as a result, relationships between soil properties often depend on scale. In this paper we report on how the relationship between one such property, cation exchange capacity (CEC), and the DRS of the soil depends on spatial scale. We show this by means of a nested analysis of covariance of soils sampled on a balanced nested design in a 16 km × 16 km area in eastern England. We used principal components analysis on the DRS to obtain a reduced number of variables while retaining key variation. The first principal component accounted for 99.8% of the total variance, the second for 0.14%. Nested analysis of the variation in the CEC and the two principal components showed that the substantial variance components are at the > 2000-m scale. This is probably the result of differences in soil composition due to parent material. We then developed a model to predict CEC from the DRS and used partial least squares (PLS) regression do to so. Leave-one-out cross-validation results suggested a reasonable predictive capability (R2 = 0.71 and RMSE = 0.048 molc kg− 1). However, the results from the independent validation were not as good, with R2 = 0.27, RMSE = 0.056 molc kg− 1 and an overall correlation of 0.52. This would indicate that DRS may not be useful for predictions of CEC. When we applied the analysis of covariance between predicted and observed we found significant scale-dependent correlations at scales of 50 and 500 m (0.82 and 0.73 respectively). DRS measurements can therefore be useful to predict CEC if predictions are required, for example, at the field scale (50 m). This study illustrates that the relationship between DRS and soil properties is scale-dependent and that this scale dependency has important consequences for prediction of soil properties from DRS data

The influence of hilly terrain on canopy-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchange

Topography influences many aspects of forest-atmosphere carbon exchange; yet only a small number of studies have considered the role of topography on the structure of turbulence within and above vegetation and its effect on canopy photosynthesis and the measurement of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (N-ee) using flux towers. Here, we focus on the interplay between radiative transfer, flow dynamics for neutral stratification, and ecophysiological controls on CO2 sources and sinks within a canopy on a gentle cosine hill. We examine how topography alters the forest-atmosphere CO2 exchange rate when compared to uniform flat terrain using a newly developed first-order closure model that explicitly accounts for the flow dynamics, radiative transfer, and nonlinear eco physiological processes within a plant canopy. We show that variation in radiation and airflow due to topography causes only a minor departure in horizontally averaged and vertically integrated photosynthesis from their flat terrain values. However, topography perturbs the airflow and concentration fields in and above plant canopies, leading to significant horizontal and vertical advection of CO2. Advection terms in the conservation equation may be neglected in flow over homogeneous, flat terrain, and then N-ee = F-c, the vertical turbulent flux of CO2. Model results suggest that vertical and horizontal advection terms are generally of opposite sign and of the same order as the biological sources and sinks. We show that, close to the hilltop, F-c departs by a factor of three compared to its flat terrain counterpart and that the horizontally averaged F-c-at canopy top differs by more than 20% compared to the flat-terrain case.

A simple theoretical model for the intensification of tropical cyclones and polar lows

A simple theoretical model for the intensification of tropical cyclones and polar lows is developed using a minimal set of physical assumptions. These disturbances are assumed to be balanced systems intensifying through the WISHE (Wind-Induced Surface Heat Exchange) intensification mechanism, driven by surface fluxes of heat and moisture into an atmosphere which is neutral to moist convection. The equation set is linearized about a resting basic state and solved as an initial-value problem. A system is predicted to intensify with an exponential perturbation growth rate scaled by the radial gradient of an efficiency parameter which crudely represents the effects of unsaturated processes. The form of this efficiency parameter is assumed to be defined by initial conditions, dependent on the nature of a pre-existing vortex required to precondition the atmosphere to a state in which the vortex can intensify. Evaluation of the simple model using a primitive-equation, nonlinear numerical model provides support for the prediction of exponential perturbation growth. Good agreement is found between the simple and numerical models for the sensitivities of the measured growth rate to various parameters, including surface roughness, the rate of transfer of heat and moisture from the ocean surface, and the scale for the growing vortex.

Initial results from Phase 2 of the international urban energy balance model comparison

Urban land surface schemes have been developed to model the distinct features of the urban surface and the associated energy exchange processes. These models have been developed for a range of purposes and make different assumptions related to the inclusion and representation of the relevant processes. Here, the first results of Phase 2 from an international comparison project to evaluate 32 urban land surface schemes are presented. This is the first large-scale systematic evaluation of these models. In four stages, participants were given increasingly detailed information about an urban site for which urban fluxes were directly observed. At each stage, each group returned their models' calculated surface energy balance fluxes. Wide variations are evident in the performance of the models for individual fluxes. No individual model performs best for all fluxes. Providing additional information about the surface generally results in better performance. However, there is clear evidence that poor choice of parameter values can cause a large drop in performance for models that otherwise perform well. As many models do not perform well across all fluxes, there is need for caution in their application, and users should be aware of the implications for applications and decision making.

Interaction of sulphur-containing aroma compounds with proteins in both model systems and real food systems

Irreversible binding of key flavour disulphides to ovalbumin has been shown previously to occur in model systems. The extent of binding is determined by the availability of the sulphydryl groups to participate in disulphide exchange, influenced either by pH, or the state of the protein (native or heat-denatured). In this study, two further proteins, one with sulphydryl groups available in the native state (beta-lactoglobulin) and one with no sulphydryl groups in the native state (lysozyme) were used to confirm this hypothesis. When the investigation was extended to real food systems, a similar effect was shown when a commercial meat flavouring containing disulphides was added to heat-denatured ovalbumin. Furthermore, comparison of the volatiles generated from onions, cooked either alone, or in the presence of meat, showed a significant reduction of key onion-derived disulphides when cooked in the presence of meat, and an even greater reduction of trisulphides. These findings may have implications for consumer acceptance of food products; where these compounds are used as flavourings or where they occur naturally.

Selective separation of the major whey proteins using ion exchange membranes

Synthetic microporous membranes with functional groups covalently attached were used to selectively separate beta-lactoglobulin, BSA, and alpha-lactalbumin from rennet whey. The selectivity and membrane performance of strong (quaternary ammonium) and weak (diethylamine) ion-exchange membranes were studied using breakthrough curves, measurement of binding capacity, and protein composition of the elution fraction to determine the binding behavior of each membrane. When the weak and strong anion exchange membranes were saturated with whey, they were both selective primarily for beta-lactoglobulin with less than 1% of the eluate consisting of alpha-lactalbumin or BSA. The binding capacity of a pure alpha-lactoglobulin solution was in excess of 1.5 mg/cm(2) of membrane. This binding capacity was reduced to approximately 1.2 mg/cm(2) when using a rennet whey solution (pH 6.4). This reduction in protein binding capacity can be explained by both the competitive effects of other whey proteins and the effect of ions present in whey. Using binary solution breakthrough curves and rennet whey breakthrough curves, it was shown that alpha-lactalbumin and BSA were displaced from the strong and weak anion exchange membranes by beta-lactoglobulin. Finally, the effect of ionic strength on the binding capacity of individual proteins for each membrane was determined by comparing model protein solutions in milk permeate (pH 6.4) and a 10 mM sodium phosphate buffer (pH 6.4). Binding capacities of beta-lactoglobulin, alpha-lactalbumin, and BSA in milk permeate were reduced by as much as 50%. This reduction in capacity coupled with the low binding capacity of current ion exchange membranes are 2 serious considerations for selectively separating complex and concentrated protein solutions.

Mesonic fluctuations in a nonlocal Nambu–Jona-Lasinio model

The effects of meson fluctuations are studied in a nonlocal generalization of the Nambu–Jona-Lasinio model, by including terms of next-to-leading order (NLO) in 1/Nc. In the model with only scalar and pseudoscalar interactions NLO contributions to the quark condensate are found to be very small. This is a result of cancellation between virtual mesons and Fock terms, which occurs for the parameter sets of most interest. In the quark self-energy, similar cancellations arise in the tadpole diagrams, although not in other NLO pieces which contribute at the 25% level. The effects on pion properties are also found to be small. NLO contributions from real pi-pi intermediate states increase the sigma meson mass by 30%. In an extended model with vector and axial interactions, there are indications that NLO effects could be larger.

Kinetic multi-layer model of aerosol surface and bulk chemistry (KM-SUB): the influence of interfacial transport and bulk diffusion on the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone

We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model that explicitly resolves mass transport and chemical reaction at the surface and in the bulk of aerosol particles (KM-SUB). The model is based on the PRA framework of gas-particle interactions (Poschl-Rudich-Ammann, 2007), and it includes reversible adsorption, surface reactions and surface-bulk exchange as well as bulk diffusion and reaction. Unlike earlier models, KM-SUB does not require simplifying assumptions about steady-state conditions and radial mixing. The temporal evolution and concentration profiles of volatile and non-volatile species at the gas-particle interface and in the particle bulk can be modeled along with surface concentrations and gas uptake coefficients. In this study we explore and exemplify the effects of bulk diffusion on the rate of reactive gas uptake for a simple reference system, the ozonolysis of oleic acid particles, in comparison to experimental data and earlier model studies. We demonstrate how KM-SUB can be used to interpret and analyze experimental data from laboratory studies, and how the results can be extrapolated to atmospheric conditions. In particular, we show how interfacial and bulk transport, i.e., surface accommodation, bulk accommodation and bulk diffusion, influence the kinetics of the chemical reaction. Sensitivity studies suggest that in fine air particulate matter oleic acid and compounds with similar reactivity against ozone (carbon-carbon double bonds) can reach chemical lifetimes of many hours only if they are embedded in a (semi-)solid matrix with very low diffusion coefficients (< 10(-10) cm(2) s(-1)). Depending on the complexity of the investigated system, unlimited numbers of volatile and non-volatile species and chemical reactions can be flexibly added and treated with KM-SUB. We propose and intend to pursue the application of KM-SUB as a basis for the development of a detailed master mechanism of aerosol chemistry as well as for the derivation of simplified but realistic parameterizations for large-scale atmospheric and climate models.

Kinetic multi-layer model of aerosol surface and bulk chemistry (KM-SUB): the influence of interfacial transport and bulk diffusion on the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone

We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model that explicitly resolves mass transport and chemical reaction at the surface and in the bulk of aerosol particles (KM-SUB). The model is based on the PRA framework of gas–particle interactions (P¨oschl et al., 5 2007), and it includes reversible adsorption, surface reactions and surface-bulk exchange as well as bulk diffusion and reaction. Unlike earlier models, KM-SUB does not require simplifying assumptions about steady-state conditions and radial mixing. The temporal evolution and concentration profiles of volatile and non-volatile species at the gas-particle interface and in the particle bulk can be modeled along with surface 10 concentrations and gas uptake coefficients. In this study we explore and exemplify the effects of bulk diffusion on the rate of reactive gas uptake for a simple reference system, the ozonolysis of oleic acid particles, in comparison to experimental data and earlier model studies. We demonstrate how KM-SUB can be used to interpret and analyze experimental data from laboratory stud15 ies, and how the results can be extrapolated to atmospheric conditions. In particular, we show how interfacial transport and bulk transport, i.e., surface accommodation, bulk accommodation and bulk diffusion, influence the kinetics of the chemical reaction. Sensitivity studies suggest that in fine air particulate matter oleic acid and compounds with similar reactivity against ozone (C=C double bonds) can reach chemical lifetimes of 20 multiple hours only if they are embedded in a (semi-)solid matrix with very low diffusion coefficients (10−10 cm2 s−1). Depending on the complexity of the investigated system, unlimited numbers of volatile and non-volatile species and chemical reactions can be flexibly added and treated with KM-SUB. We propose and intend to pursue the application of KM-SUB 25 as a basis for the development of a detailed master mechanism of aerosol chemistry as well as for the derivation of simplified but realistic parameterizations for large-scale atmospheric and climate models.