O valor terminal ou de continuidade, na avaliação de empresas

É um facto que a incerteza sobre o futuro das sociedades tem de ser modelada e incorporada na sua avaliação, fora do período explícito de análise, ou seja: nos valores de continuidade (VC), valor residual (VR) ou valor terminal (VT), considerados nos modelos de avaliação. Existem inúmeros fatores que influenciam o valor de continuidade das empresas e que não são, atualmente, considerados nos modelos de avaliação de empresas, destacando-se, entre os mais relevantes, a ausência de quaisquer referências à esperança média de vida das empresas. De facto, ao ignorarmos esses fatores, podemos incorrer em erros irreparáveis, conduzindo as avaliações a valores de goodwill ou badwill, muito longe do real valor substancial dos ativos, que lhes é intrínseco. Como consequência, os referidos resultados apresentar-se-ão vincadamente diferentes dos valores de mercado. Assim, porque não considerar modelos alternativos (incorporando nos mesmos a esperança de vida das empresas) e a influência de outros fatores, de forma a obter um ajustamento mais eficiente, no que respeita à forma de cálculo do valor da empresa? Este trabalho pretende fornecer um contributo neste domínio, tendo como primeiro objetivo (e para além da revisão da literatura existente sobre a matéria) a construção de uma tábua de mortalidade para as empresas portuguesas, que possa ser utilizada para eliminar ou, pelo menos, reduzir um dos principais problemas causadores de distorção dos atuais modelos de avaliação de empresas: a premissa de existência (ilimitada no tempo) de uma empresa. Com esse propósito, através da metodologia associada à construção de tábuas de mortalidade para os seres humanos, construímos uma tabela com a esperança média de vida associada às empresas portuguesas. Assim, usando uma base de dados (com cerca de 182.000 registos sobre falências, dissoluções e cessão de atividade em Portugal, desde 1900 até 2009), concluímos que, nos primeiros 5 anos, “morrem” 31% das empresas e que a esperança média de vida (à nascença) é de 12 anos. Estes resultados evidenciam a fragilidade dos modelos de avaliação de empresas, em que se estima o VT com uma perpetuidade. Após ficar patente que as empresas não têm uma esperança de vida infinita, preocupar-nos-emos em identificar quais os fatores responsáveis pela existência da empresa (no longo prazo), fatores esses que possam, porventura, justificar uma vida mais longa das sociedades. VI Nesse sentido, o segundo objetivo passou por identificar quais os fatores determinantes do valor terminal da empresa. Assim [utilizando uma amostra de 714 empresas cotadas, pertencentes a 15 países europeus e para um período compreendido entre 1992 e 2011, usando a metodologia GMM (Generalized method of moments), aplicada a dados em painel dinâmico], os resultados evidenciam que o valor de continuidade não pode ser considerado como o valor atual de uma perpetuidade constante (ou com crescimento) de um determinado atributo da empresa mas, sim, em função de um conjunto de atributos, como os free cash flows, os resultados líquidos, a esperança média de vida da empresa, o investimento em I&D, as capacidades e qualidade da gestão, a liquidez dos títulos e a estrutura de financiamento. Como terceiro objetivo (e mantendo a particular atenção na estimação do VT da empresa), procurou-se cruzar os resultados obtidos no estudo anterior com as perceções dos analistas Europeus e Estadunidenses acerca dos atributos da empresa que, na opinião destes, mais contribuem para o seu valor. Para o feito, recorreu-se a um inquérito, com respostas fechadas. Da análise das 123 respostas válidas, obtidas usando a análise fatorial, concluiuse serem determinantes do valor de uma empresa ou negócio os seguintes fatores: a esperança média de vida da empresa, a sua liquidez e desempenho operacional, a inovação e capacidade de afetação de recursos a I&D, as capacidades de gestão e a estrutura de capital, confirmando-se as conclusões até então obtidas. Por fim, fez-se um esforço no sentido de fornecer ao leitor uma nova aproximação teórica ao modelo Discounted CashFlow (DCF), tendo em conta as variáveis entretanto identificadas no nosso estudo. Estes resultados contribuem, a nosso ver, para que se possa caminhar no sentido da construção de um modelo de avaliação de empresas e negócios ainda mais apurado, em que os resultados obtidos nas avaliações se aproximem o mais possível dos verificados no mercado.

El aprendizaje a través del juego como herramienta en el diseño de actividades de valor añadido en un currículum integrador de Ciencias Biomédicas

Esta actividad, diseñada desde el Departamento de Ciencias Biomédicas Básicas, se apoya en: 1. la integración de materias básicas (para contextualizar la experiencia clínica desde la perspectiva de sus fundamentos); 2. la formación interprofesional al trabajar con alumnos de diferentes Grados de nuestra Facultad y 3. el aprendizaje a través del juego, para facilitar un abordaje motivante y divertido a los destinatarios de la acción. Esta nueva experiencia consiste en una gymkhana por equipos en base a un caso clínico, en la que por primera vez se trabajan el aprendizaje y la docencia en diversas disciplinas básicas integradas, a través del juego y la competición entre grupos de alumnos (TBL).

CFA88: UN PROGRAMA VERSATIL PARA EL ANALISIS DE EVENTOS HIDROMETEOROLOGICOS EXTREMOS. I TEORIA

El presente trabajo describe los diferentes componentes del programa CFA88 (Consolidated Frequency Analysis Package, versión 1). El programa le permite al usuario:1) ajustar cinco distribuciones de frecuencia( valor generalizado extremo, lognormal de tres parámetros, log Pearson tipo III, Wakeby y Weibull); 2) evaluar a través de pruebas no paramétricas los supuestos asociados al análisis de frecuencia, a saber: independencia, homogeneidad, aleatoriedad y tendencia en el tiempo;3) detectar valores <<fuera de lo común>> (low and high outliers); y 4) analizar series hidrometeorologicas con ceros, información histórica y eventos fuera de lo común.

i-Cobb - An innovative technique in spinal radiographic measurement

The measurement of Cobb angles from radiographs is routine practice in spinal clinics. The technique relies on the use and availability of specialist equipment such as a goniometer, cobbometer or protractor. The aim of this study was to validate the use of i-Phone (Apple Inc) combined with Tilt Meter Pro software as compared to a protractor in the measurement of Cobb angles. Between November 2008 and December 2008 20 patients were selected at random from the Paediatric Spine Research Groups Database. A power calculation was performed which indicated if n=240 measurements the study had a 96% chance of detecting a 5 degree difference between groups. All patients had idiopathic scoliosis with a range of curve types and severities. The study found the i-Phone combined with Tilt Meter Pro software offers a faster alternative to the traditional method of Cobb angle measurement. The use of i-Phone offers a more convenient way of measuring Cobb angles in the outpatient setting. The intra-observer repeatability of the iPhone is equivalent to the protractor in the measurement of Cobb angles.

Low-complexity estimation of CFO and frequency independent I/Q mismatch for OFDM systems

CFO and I/Q mismatch could cause significant performance degradation to OFDM systems. Their estimation and compensation are generally difficult as they are entangled in the received signal. In this paper, we propose some low-complexity estimation and compensation schemes in the receiver, which are robust to various CFO and I/Q mismatch values although the performance is slightly degraded for very small CFO. These schemes consist of three steps: forming a cosine estimator free of I/Q mismatch interference, estimating I/Q mismatch using the estimated cosine value, and forming a sine estimator using samples after I/Q mismatch compensation. These estimators are based on the perception that an estimate of cosine serves much better as the basis for I/Q mismatch estimation than the estimate of CFO derived from the cosine function. Simulation results show that the proposed schemes can improve system performance significantly, and they are robust to CFO and I/Q mismatch.

"Well, now I'm upset": Moral and social orders in the playground

There is much still to learn about how young children’s membership with peers shapes their constructions of moral and social obligations within everyday activities in the school playground. This paper investigates how a small group of girls, aged four to six years, account for their everyday social interactions in the playground. They were video-recorded as they participated in a pretend game of school. Several days later, a video-recorded excerpt of the interaction was shown to them and invited to comment on what was happening in the video. This conversation was audio-recorded. Drawing on a conversation analysis approach, this chapter shows that, despite their discontent and complaining about playing the game of school, the girls’ actions showed their continued orientation to the particular codes of the game, of ‘no going away’ and ‘no telling’. By making relevant these codes, jointly constructed by the girls during the interview, they managed each other’s continued participation within two arenas of action: the pretend, as a player in a pretend game of school; and the real, as a classroom member of a peer group. Through inferences to explicit and implicit codes of conduct, moral obligations were invoked as the girls attempted to socially exclude or build alliances with others, and enforce their own social position. As well, a shared history that the girls re-constructed has moral implications for present and future relationships. The girls oriented to the history as an interactional resource for accounting for their actions in the pretend game. This paper uncovers how children both participate in, and shape, their everyday social worlds through talk and interaction and the consequences a taken-for-granted activity such as playing school has for their moral and social positions in the peer group.

Concurrent multi-scale modeling of civil infrastructures for analyses on structural deterioration—Part I : Modeling methodology and strategy

This paper aims to develop the methodology and strategy for concurrent finite element modeling of civil infrastructures at the different scale levels for the purposes of analyses of structural deteriorating. The modeling strategy and method were investigated to develop the concurrent multi-scale model of structural behavior (CMSM-of-SB) in which the global structural behavior and nonlinear damage features of local details in a large complicated structure could be concurrently analyzed in order to meet the needs of structural-state evaluation as well as structural deteriorating. In the proposed method, the “large-scale” modeling is adopted for the global structure with linear responses between stress and strain and the “small-scale” modeling is available for nonlinear damage analyses of the local welded details. A longitudinal truss in steel bridge decks was selected as a case to study how a CMSM-of-SB was developed. The reduced-scale specimen of the longitudinal truss was studied in the laboratory to measure its dynamic and static behavior in global truss and local welded details, while the multi-scale models using constraint equations and substructuring were developed for numerical simulation. The comparison of dynamic and static response between the calculated results by different models indicated that the proposed multi-scale model was found to be the most efficient and accurate. The verification of the model with results from the tested truss under the specific loading showed that, responses at the material scale in the vicinity of local details as well as structural global behaviors could be obtained and fit well with the measured results. The proposed concurrent multi-scale modeling strategy and implementation procedures were applied to Runyang cable-stayed bridge (RYCB) and the CMSM-of-SB of the bridge deck system was accordingly constructed as a practical application.

I-cobb - An innovative technique in spinal radiographic measurement

The measurement of Cobb angles on radiographs of patients with spinal deformities is routine practice in spinal clinics. The technique relies on the use and availability of specialist equipment such as a goniometer, cobbometer or protractor. The aim of this study was to validate the use of i-Phone (Apple Inc) combined with Tilt Meter Pro software as compared to a protractor in the measurement of Cobb angles. The i-Phone combined with Tilt Meter Pro software offers a faster alternative to the traditional method of Cobb angle measurement. The use of i-Phone offers a more convenient way of measuring Cobb angles in the outpatient setting. The intra-observer repeatability of the iPhone is equivalent to the protractor in the measurement of Cobb angles.

“I am a secondary teacher and I teach history and SOSE” : negotiating pre-service teacher identities in times of curriculum change

Secondary social education in Australia is set to change with the new national history curriculum but integrated social education will continue in the middle years of schooling. Competing discourses of disciplinary and integrated social education approaches create new challenges for pre-service teachers as identification with a teaching area is an important aspect of developing a broader teacher identity. Feedback on a compulsory, final year curriculum studies unit revealed the majority of secondary pre-service teachers identified with at least one social science discipline. However, only a small number listed the integrated social education curriculum of Studies of Society and Environment (SOSE), even though SOSE was an essential part of their brief. More complex identities were revealed in post-teaching practice interviews. In times of curriculum change, attention to pre-service teachers’ disciplinary knowledge is critical in developing a stable subject identity.