Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

New microfluidic-based sampling procedure for overcoming the hematocrit problem associated with dried blood spot analysis.

Hematocrit (Hct) is one of the most critical issues associated with the bioanalytical methods used for dried blood spot (DBS) sample analysis. Because Hct determines the viscosity of blood, it may affect the spreading of blood onto the filter paper. Hence, accurate quantitative data can only be obtained if the size of the paper filter extracted contains a fixed blood volume. We describe for the first time a microfluidic-based sampling procedure to enable accurate blood volume collection on commercially available DBS cards. The system allows the collection of a controlled volume of blood (e.g., 5 or 10 μL) within several seconds. Reproducibility of the sampling volume was examined in vivo on capillary blood by quantifying caffeine and paraxanthine on 5 different extracted DBS spots at two different time points and in vitro with a test compound, Mavoglurant, on 10 different spots at two Hct levels. Entire spots were extracted. In addition, the accuracy and precision (n = 3) data for the Mavoglurant quantitation in blood with Hct levels between 26% and 62% were evaluated. The interspot precision data were below 9.0%, which was equivalent to that of a manually spotted volume with a pipet. No Hct effect was observed in the quantitative results obtained for Hct levels from 26% to 62%. These data indicate that our microfluidic-based sampling procedure is accurate and precise and that the analysis of Mavoglurant is not affected by the Hct values. This provides a simple procedure for DBS sampling with a fixed volume of capillary blood, which could eliminate the recurrent Hct issue linked to DBS sample analysis.

Reducing the Problem of Transverse Cracking, HR-232, 1985

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is continually improving the pavement management program and striving to reduce maintenance needs. Through a 1979 pavement management study, the Iowa DOT became a participant in a five state Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) study of "Transverse Cracking of Asphalt Pavements". There were numerous conclusions and recommendations but no agreement as to the major factors contributing to transverse cracking or methods of preventing or reducing the occurrence of transverse cracking. The project did focus attention on the problem and generated ideas for research. This project is one of two state funded research projects that were a direct result of the FHWA project. Iowa DOT personnel had been monitoring temperature susceptibility of asphalt cements by the Norman McLeod Modified Penetration Index. Even though there are many variables from one asphalt mix to another, the trend seemed to indicate that the frequency of transverse cracking was highly dependent on the temperature susceptibility. Research project HR-217 "Reducing the Adverse Effects of Transverse Cracking" was initiated to verify the concept. A final report has been published after a four-year evaluation. The crack frequency with the high temperature susceptible asphalt cement was substantially greater than for the low temperature susceptible asphalt cement. An increased asphalt cement content in the asphalt treated base also reduced the crack frequency. This research on prevention of transverse cracking with fabric supports the following conclusions: 1. Engineering fabric does not prevent transverse cracking of asphalt cement concrete. 2. Engineering fabric may retard the occurrence of transverse cracking. 3. Engineering fabric does not contribute significantly to the structural capability of an asphalt concrete pavement.

What's so special about conversion disorder? A problem and a proposal for diagnostic classification.

Conversion disorder presents a problem for the revisions of DSM-IV and ICD-10, for reasons that are informative about the difficulties of psychiatric classification more generally. Giving up criteria based on psychological aetiology may be a painful sacrifice but it is still the right thing to do.

The number of planar central configurations for the 4-body problem is finite when 3 mass positions are fixed

In the n{body problem a central con guration is formed when the position vector of each particle with respect to the center of mass is a common scalar multiple of its acceleration vector. Lindstrom showed for n = 3 and for n > 4 that if n ? 1 masses are located at xed points in the plane, then there are only a nite number of ways to position the remaining nth mass in such a way that they de ne a central con guration. Lindstrom leaves open the case n = 4. In this paper we prove the case n = 4 using as variables the mutual distances between the particles.

Families of periodic orbits for the spatial isosceles 3-body problem

We study the families of periodic orbits of the spatial isosceles 3-body problem (for small enough values of the mass lying on the symmetry axis) coming via the analytic continuation method from periodic orbits of the circular Sitnikov problem. Using the first integral of the angular momentum, we reduce the dimension of the phase space of the problem by two units. Since periodic orbits of the reduced isosceles problem generate invariant two-dimensional tori of the nonreduced problem, the analytic continuation of periodic orbits of the (reduced) circular Sitnikov problem at this level becomes the continuation of invariant two-dimensional tori from the circular Sitnikov problem to the nonreduced isosceles problem, each one filled with periodic or quasi-periodic orbits. These tori are not KAM tori but just isotropic, since we are dealing with a three-degrees-of-freedom system. The continuation of periodic orbits is done in two different ways, the first going directly from the reduced circular Sitnikov problem to the reduced isosceles problem, and the second one using two steps: first we continue the periodic orbits from the reduced circular Sitnikov problem to the reduced elliptic Sitnikov problem, and then we continue those periodic orbits of the reduced elliptic Sitnikov problem to the reduced isosceles problem. The continuation in one or two steps produces different results. This work is merely analytic and uses the variational equations in order to apply Poincar´e’s continuation method.