Latent Space and Social Psychological Models of Diffusion

The problem of social diffusion has animated sociological thinking on topics ranging from the spread of an idea, an innovation or a disease, to the foundations of collective behavior and political polarization. While network diffusion has been a productive metaphor, the reality of diffusion processes is often muddier. Ideas and innovations diffuse differently from diseases, but, with a few exceptions, the diffusion of ideas and innovations has been modeled under the same assumptions as the diffusion of disease. In this dissertation, I develop two new diffusion models for "socially meaningful" contagions that address two of the most significant problems with current diffusion models: (1) that contagions can only spread along observed ties, and (2) that contagions do not change as they spread between people. I augment insights from these statistical and simulation models with an analysis of an empirical case of diffusion - the use of enterprise collaboration software in a large technology company. I focus the empirical study on when people abandon innovations, a crucial, and understudied aspect of the diffusion of innovations. Using timestamped posts, I analyze when people abandon software to a high degree of detail.

To address the first problem, I suggest a latent space diffusion model. Rather than treating ties as stable conduits for information, the latent space diffusion model treats ties as random draws from an underlying social space, and simulates diffusion over the social space. Theoretically, the social space model integrates both actor ties and attributes simultaneously in a single social plane, while incorporating schemas into diffusion processes gives an explicit form to the reciprocal influences that cognition and social environment have on each other. Practically, the latent space diffusion model produces statistically consistent diffusion estimates where using the network alone does not, and the diffusion with schemas model shows that introducing some cognitive processing into diffusion processes changes the rate and ultimate distribution of the spreading information. To address the second problem, I suggest a diffusion model with schemas. Rather than treating information as though it is spread without changes, the schema diffusion model allows people to modify information they receive to fit an underlying mental model of the information before they pass the information to others. Combining the latent space models with a schema notion for actors improves our models for social diffusion both theoretically and practically.

The empirical case study focuses on how the changing value of an innovation, introduced by the innovations' network externalities, influences when people abandon the innovation. In it, I find that people are least likely to abandon an innovation when other people in their neighborhood currently use the software as well. The effect is particularly pronounced for supervisors' current use and number of supervisory team members who currently use the software. This case study not only points to an important process in the diffusion of innovation, but also suggests a new approach -- computerized collaboration systems -- to collecting and analyzing data on organizational processes.

Optimal Capital Requirements in Financial Networks with Fire Sales

I explore and analyze a problem of finding the socially optimal capital requirements for financial institutions considering two distinct channels of contagion: direct exposures among the institutions, as represented by a network and fire sales externalities, which reflect the negative price impact of massive liquidation of assets.These two channels amplify shocks from individual financial institutions to the financial system as a whole and thus increase the risk of joint defaults amongst the interconnected financial institutions; this is often referred to as systemic risk. In the model, there is a trade-off between reducing systemic risk and raising the capital requirements of the financial institutions. The policymaker considers this trade-off and determines the optimal capital requirements for individual financial institutions. I provide a method for finding and analyzing the optimal capital requirements that can be applied to arbitrary network structures and arbitrary distributions of investment returns.

In particular, I first consider a network model consisting only of direct exposures and show that the optimal capital requirements can be found by solving a stochastic linear programming problem. I then extend the analysis to financial networks with default costs and show the optimal capital requirements can be found by solving a stochastic mixed integer programming problem. The computational complexity of this problem poses a challenge, and I develop an iterative algorithm that can be efficiently executed. I show that the iterative algorithm leads to solutions that are nearly optimal by comparing it with lower bounds based on a dual approach. I also show that the iterative algorithm converges to the optimal solution.

Finally, I incorporate fire sales externalities into the model. In particular, I am able to extend the analysis of systemic risk and the optimal capital requirements with a single illiquid asset to a model with multiple illiquid assets. The model with multiple illiquid assets incorporates liquidation rules used by the banks. I provide an optimization formulation whose solution provides the equilibrium payments for a given liquidation rule.

I further show that the socially optimal capital problem using the ``socially optimal liquidation" and prioritized liquidation rules can be formulated as a convex and convex mixed integer problem, respectively. Finally, I illustrate the results of the methodology on numerical examples and

discuss some implications for capital regulation policy and stress testing.

Politics vs economics: unintended consequences of Governments’ interventions in airlines’ markets

Overlaying theories of market inefficiencies and/or failure onto airline economics indicates that the industry encounters at least seven of the indicators which have triggered interventions by national, multi-national or supranational governments (NMSGs) trying to resolve political, social or environmental problems. The NMSGs’ interventions aimed to resolve lack of competition, fill missing markets, and neuter the presence of negative externalities, free riders, social inequalities and moral panic. Desk research showed that their interventions (many lacking preliminary economic analysis) either intentionally solved and/or unintentionally triggered market inefficiencies or failures. It is possible that some of the interventions could eventually make advanced world airlines subsidise their advancing world competitors.

Relações interorganizacionais e eficiência coletiva: um estudo de caso no arranjo produtivo local de confecções do Agreste de Pernambuco

This work is a study in the Local Productive Arrangement of confections from Agreste of Pernambuco, as a relevant sector in economic and social aspect. This research has as central aim to understand how the inter-organizational relations influence the collective efficiency of arrangement. The theoretical framework employed highlights the approaches that deal with the benefits of business agglomeration for the develop­ment of firms and regions. It has discussed the approach of small and medium enter­ prises and industrial districts (SCHMITZ, 1997), which introduce the concept of col­ lective efficiency, explaining that only those externalities explained by Marshall (1996) are not sufficient to explain the competitive advantage of enterprises, expand­ing the idea that organizations achieve competitive advantage not acting alone. To examine the influences of relations in the collective efficiency, it has been taken as analytical perspective theory of social networks (GRANOVETTER, 1973, 1985; BURT, 1992; UZZI, 1997) because it has believe that this approach provides subsi­ dies for a structural analysis of social relationships in face the behavior of human ac­tion. By examining the organizations in a social network, you should understand the reason of this establishment of the relationship, their benefits, and as the information flow takes place and density of links between the actors (Powell; SMITH-DOERR, 1994). As for the methods, this study is characterized as a case study, in according to the purposed objectives, in addition to qualitative method. Also, due to recovering of the historical milestones of the arrangement, it is used a sectional approach with longitudinal perspective (VIEIRA, 2004). The primary and secondary data were used in order to understand the evolutionary process of the sector and their inter-actors re­ lationships in the arrangement for the promotion of development, for both, was used the contend and documentary analysis technique, respectively (DELLAGNELO ; SIL­VA, 2005). The approach of social networks has permitted understand that social re­lationships may extend the collective efficiency of the arrangement, and therefore need to develop policies that encourage the legalization of informal companies in ar­rangement, by showing up themselves representative. Thus, the relations estab­ lished in LPA of confections from Agreste of Pernambuco need for more effective mechanisms to broaden the collective efficiency. Therefore, this way as take place has directly benefited only a group of companies that are linked in some way the sup­portive institutions. So we can conclude that the inter-actor relations have limited the collective efficiency of LPA, being stimulated by the institutions in support only to groups of entrepreneurs, even those that produce external relations for all clustered companies

Hydrological and economic effects of oil palm cultivation in Indonesian peatlands

Oil palm has increasingly been established on peatlands throughout Indonesia. One of the concerns is that the drainage required for cultivating oil palm in peatlands leads to soil subsidence, potentially increasing future flood risks. This study analyzes the hydrological and economic effects of oil palm production in a peat landscape in Central Kalimantan. We examine two land use scenarios, one involving conversion of the complete landscape including a large peat area to oil palm plantations, and another involving mixed land use including oil palm plantations, jelutung (jungle rubber; (Dyera spp.) plantations, and natural forest. The hydrological effect was analyzed through flood risk modeling using a high-resolution digital elevation model. For the economic analysis, we analyzed four ecosystem services: oil palm production, jelutung production, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat. This study shows that after 100 years, in the oil palm scenario, about 67% of peat in the study area will be subject to regular flooding. The flood-prone area will be unsuitable for oil palm and other crops requiring drained soils. The oil palm scenario is the most profitable only in the short term and when the externalities of oil palm production, i.e., the costs of CO2 emissions, are not considered. In the examined scenarios, the social costs of carbon emissions exceed the private benefits from oil palm plantations in peat. Depending upon the local hydrology, income from jelutung, which can sustainably be grown in undrained conditions and does not lead to soil subsidence, outweighs that from oil palm after several decades. These findings illustrate the trade-offs faced at present in Indonesian peatland management and point to economic advantages of an approach that involves expansion of oil palm on mineral lands while conserving natural peat forests and using degraded peat for crops that do not require drainage.

Locus de controle e a efetividade empresarial em microempresários do estado do Rio Grande do Norte

Entrepreneurs are individuals who can transform economic and social realities by promoting development, so it became important tools in generating externalities in regions where they operate. In Brazil, 59.9% of new ventures do not reach the fourth year of life, the mortality rate of new ventures is high. The causes of mortality are numerous, and within the behavioral aspects, one is the locus of control. This study determines the degree of association between internal locus of control and achieving business success of entrepreneurs in Rio Grande do Norte who participated in the workshop EMPRETEC. The approach that studies the behavior entrepreneurs agreed that there are psychological characteristics associated with a set of values, attitudes and needs that determine the behavior and induce the entrepreneur to achieve success. Among these features is the locus of control, a skill that individuals must identify in their actions, or lack of them, the causes of their successes and failures. The locus is external when the individual attributes to factors outside themselves as causes of their results, and is built in when you can identify the actions that led to success. We surveyed 223 entrepreneurs statewide who answered the questionnaire for assessing the scale of locus of control, selfassessment questionnaire of entrepreneurial characteristics of EMPRETEC and a questionnaire assessing the business success. 71.9% were identified as having success. Among the behavioral characteristics strongest in the group of entrepreneurs are setting goals and commitment. Was found for locus of control mean value of 7.35, confidence interval between 7.05 and 7.66. Showing that the locus of control group is predominantly internal. We also found a correlation between the locus and commitment, between setting goals and commitment; calculated risks and information search; search of information and commitment, and between commitment and independence and self confidence. Dependence was not identified among the set of features and business success, determining the absence of an ideal profile. However, logistic regression significant association was found indicating that the smaller the individual's locus of control increased the likelihood of it achieving business success

Ciclos econômicos e emissão de CO2 no Brasil: uma análise dinâmica para políticas ambientais ótimas

Este artigo estuda como as políticas ambientais devem responder de forma ótima aos ciclos econômicos no Brasil. Para isso utilizamos um modelo de ciclos reais de negócios (RBC) com externalidades de poluição. Os resultados indicam que o custo de mitigação de emissões de carbono é mais baixo que o da poluição no Brasil, justificando a adoção de políticas restritivas. Além disso, diante de choques de produtividade, o comportamento ótimo é uma política de mitigação pró-cíclica, onde o imposto e o teto de emissões devem aumentar em períodos de expansão da economia e diminuir em períodos de crise. Também definimos uma regra de decisão para a dinâmica da política de mitigação.

Nonparametric tests of collectively rational consumption behavior: an integer programming procedure

We present an IP-based nonparametric (revealed preference) testing procedure for rational consumption behavior in terms of general collective models, which include consumption externalities and public consumption. An empirical application to data drawn from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) demonstrates the practical usefulness of the procedure. Finally, we present extensions of the testing procedure to evaluate the goodness-of-…t of the collective model subject to testing, and to quantify and improve the power of the corresponding collective rationality tests.

A gestão adequada de resíduos: ênfase ao setor de construção civil

O presente trabalho traz uma analise exploratória a cerca da situação do setor de construção civil e seu impacto ambiental, assim como, o problema da falta de gestão adequada, que possibilite através de politicas públicas e instrumentos econômicos, formas sustentáveis de lidar com os resíduos gerados em todo território nacional. Analisou-se o Plano Nacional de Resíduos Sólidos (PNRS), elaborado para nortear os municípios brasileiros na adequação da Politica Nacional dos Resíduos Sólidos. O PNRS expõe um histórico da situação dos resíduos, e apresenta alternativas especificas para corrigir as externalidades geradas por sua disposição indiscriminada, além de propor metas de gestão eficiente, e alertar quanto as punições estabelecidas pelo não cumprimento da Lei 12.305, que entrou em vigor no dia 02 de agosto de 2010, dando um prazo de quatro anos para que os municípios encontrassem maneiras de descartar de forma correta seus resíduos sólidos, dentre outras abordagens. Também foi realizado levantamento bibliográfico com uso de conceitos microeconômicos envolvendo externalidades, pelo qual se podem notar as diferentes formas negativas com que o setor impacta o meio ambiente.

Efectos fiscales de los asentamientos hidroeléctricos: el caso de la cuenca de los Ríos Negro y Nare en Colombia

Con la presencia de asentamientos hidroeléctricos en su territorio, los municipios del oriente y nordeste antioqueño han visto afectada su estructura tributaria y territorial, a pesar de la reglamentación compen­satoria del sector eléctrico. Este artículo, analiza los efectos tributarios generados por la compensación del impuesto predial. Para lograrlo se revisan los montos recibidos por los municipios de las empresas generadoras y se realiza una indagación empírica del impuesto bajo los escenarios con y sin asenta­mientos hidroeléctricos. De esta forma se determina el diferencial tributario. Se concluye que, además de la insuficiencia de las transferencias para compensar la pérdida del capital natural de las cuencas hidroeléctricas, la expansión del sector eléctrico genera regresividad tributaria, por causa de privilegios y exenciones concebidos por las Leyes.

Relações interorganizacionais e eficiência coletiva: um estudo de caso no arranjo produtivo local de confecções do Agreste de Pernambuco

This work is a study in the Local Productive Arrangement of confections from Agreste of Pernambuco, as a relevant sector in economic and social aspect. This research has as central aim to understand how the inter-organizational relations influence the collective efficiency of arrangement. The theoretical framework employed highlights the approaches that deal with the benefits of business agglomeration for the develop­ment of firms and regions. It has discussed the approach of small and medium enter­ prises and industrial districts (SCHMITZ, 1997), which introduce the concept of col­ lective efficiency, explaining that only those externalities explained by Marshall (1996) are not sufficient to explain the competitive advantage of enterprises, expand­ing the idea that organizations achieve competitive advantage not acting alone. To examine the influences of relations in the collective efficiency, it has been taken as analytical perspective theory of social networks (GRANOVETTER, 1973, 1985; BURT, 1992; UZZI, 1997) because it has believe that this approach provides subsi­ dies for a structural analysis of social relationships in face the behavior of human ac­tion. By examining the organizations in a social network, you should understand the reason of this establishment of the relationship, their benefits, and as the information flow takes place and density of links between the actors (Powell; SMITH-DOERR, 1994). As for the methods, this study is characterized as a case study, in according to the purposed objectives, in addition to qualitative method. Also, due to recovering of the historical milestones of the arrangement, it is used a sectional approach with longitudinal perspective (VIEIRA, 2004). The primary and secondary data were used in order to understand the evolutionary process of the sector and their inter-actors re­ lationships in the arrangement for the promotion of development, for both, was used the contend and documentary analysis technique, respectively (DELLAGNELO ; SIL­VA, 2005). The approach of social networks has permitted understand that social re­lationships may extend the collective efficiency of the arrangement, and therefore need to develop policies that encourage the legalization of informal companies in ar­rangement, by showing up themselves representative. Thus, the relations estab­ lished in LPA of confections from Agreste of Pernambuco need for more effective mechanisms to broaden the collective efficiency. Therefore, this way as take place has directly benefited only a group of companies that are linked in some way the sup­portive institutions. So we can conclude that the inter-actor relations have limited the collective efficiency of LPA, being stimulated by the institutions in support only to groups of entrepreneurs, even those that produce external relations for all clustered companies

A implantação de hidrelétricas na Amazônia brasileira, impactos socioambientais e à saúde com as transformações no território : o caso da UHE de Belo Monte

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Humanas, Departamento de Geografia, Pós-Graduação em Geografia, 2016.

Locus de controle e a efetividade empresarial em microempresários do estado do Rio Grande do Norte

Entrepreneurs are individuals who can transform economic and social realities by promoting development, so it became important tools in generating externalities in regions where they operate. In Brazil, 59.9% of new ventures do not reach the fourth year of life, the mortality rate of new ventures is high. The causes of mortality are numerous, and within the behavioral aspects, one is the locus of control. This study determines the degree of association between internal locus of control and achieving business success of entrepreneurs in Rio Grande do Norte who participated in the workshop EMPRETEC. The approach that studies the behavior entrepreneurs agreed that there are psychological characteristics associated with a set of values, attitudes and needs that determine the behavior and induce the entrepreneur to achieve success. Among these features is the locus of control, a skill that individuals must identify in their actions, or lack of them, the causes of their successes and failures. The locus is external when the individual attributes to factors outside themselves as causes of their results, and is built in when you can identify the actions that led to success. We surveyed 223 entrepreneurs statewide who answered the questionnaire for assessing the scale of locus of control, selfassessment questionnaire of entrepreneurial characteristics of EMPRETEC and a questionnaire assessing the business success. 71.9% were identified as having success. Among the behavioral characteristics strongest in the group of entrepreneurs are setting goals and commitment. Was found for locus of control mean value of 7.35, confidence interval between 7.05 and 7.66. Showing that the locus of control group is predominantly internal. We also found a correlation between the locus and commitment, between setting goals and commitment; calculated risks and information search; search of information and commitment, and between commitment and independence and self confidence. Dependence was not identified among the set of features and business success, determining the absence of an ideal profile. However, logistic regression significant association was found indicating that the smaller the individual's locus of control increased the likelihood of it achieving business success

Essays on Matching Markets and Their Equilibria

Matching theory and matching markets are a core component of modern economic theory and market design. This dissertation presents three original contributions to this area. The first essay constructs a matching mechanism in an incomplete information matching market in which the positive assortative match is the unique efficient and unique stable match. The mechanism asks each agent in the matching market to reveal her privately known type. Through its novel payment rule, truthful revelation forms an ex post Nash equilibrium in this setting. This mechanism works in one-, two- and many-sided matching markets, thus offering the first mechanism to unify these matching markets under a single mechanism design framework. The second essay confronts a problem of matching in an environment in which no efficient and incentive compatible matching mechanism exists due to matching externalities. I develop a two-stage matching game in which a contracting stage facilitates subsequent conditionally efficient and incentive compatible Vickrey auction stage. Infinite repetition of this two-stage matching game enforces the contract in every period. This mechanism produces inequitably distributed social improvement: parties to the contract receive all of the gains and then some. The final essay demonstrates the existence of prices which stably and efficiently partition a single set of agents into firms and workers, and match those two sets to each other. This pricing system extends Kelso and Crawford's general equilibrium results in a labor market matching model and links one- and two-sided matching markets as well.

An Afriat theorem for the collective model of household consumption

We provide a nonparametric 'revealed preference’ characterization of rational household behavior in terms of the collective consumption model, while accounting for general (possibly non-convex) individual preferences. We establish a Collective Axiom of Revealed Preference (CARP), which provides a necessary and sufficient condition for data consistency with collective rationality. Our main result takes the form of a ‘collective’ version of the Afriat Theorem for rational behavior in terms of the unitary model. This theorem has some interesting implications. With only a finite set of observations, the nature of consumption externalities (positive or negative) in the intra-household allocation process is non-testable. The same non-testability conclusion holds for privateness (with or without externalities) or publicness of consumption. By contrast, concavity of individual utility functions (representing convex preferences) turns out to be testable. In addition, monotonicity is testable for the model that assumes all household consumption is public.