Testing the expectations theory of the term structure in threshold models

We test the expectations theory of the term structure of U.S. interest rates in nonlinear systems. These models allow the response of the change in short rates to past values of the spread to depend upon the level of the spread. The nonlinear system is tested against a linear system, and the results of testing the expectations theory in both models are contrasted. We find that the results of tests of the implications of the expectations theory depend on the size and sign of the spread. The long maturity spread predicts future changes of the short rate only when it is high.

US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968-2010

Recent literature has suggested that macroeconomic forecasters may have asymmetric loss functions, and that there may be heterogeneity across forecasters in the degree to which they weigh under- and over-predictions. Using an individual-level analysis that exploits the Survey of Professional Forecasters respondents’ histogram forecasts, we find little evidence of asymmetric loss for the inflation forecasters

Fire history and the Global Charcoal Database: a new tool for hypothesis testing and data exploration

Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database is now available for regional fire history reconstructions, data exploration, hypothesis testing, and evaluation of coupled climate–vegetation–fire model simulations. The charcoal database contains over 400 radiocarbon-dated records that document changes in charcoal abundance during the Late Quaternary. The aim of this public database is to stimulate cross-disciplinary research in fire sciences targeted at an increased understanding of the controls and impacts of natural and anthropogenic fire regimes on centennial-to-orbital timescales. We describe here the data standardization techniques for comparing multiple types of sedimentary charcoal records. Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database has been used to characterize global and regional patterns in fire activity since the last glacial maximum. Recent studies using the charcoal database have explored the relation between climate and fire during periods of rapid climate change, including evidence of fire activity during the Younger Dryas Chronozone, and during the past two millennia.

Interpretation and expectations among mothers of children with anxiety disorders: associations with maternal anxiety disorder

Background Models of the development and maintenance of childhood anxiety suggest an important role for parent cognitions: that is, negative expectations of children's coping abilities lead to parenting behaviors that maintain child anxiety. The primary aims of the current study were to (1) compare expectations of child vulnerability and coping among mothers of children with anxiety disorders on the basis of whether or not mothers also had a current anxiety disorder, and (2) examine the degree to which the association between maternal anxiety disorder status and child coping expectations was mediated by how mothers interpreted ambiguous material that referred to their own experience. Methods The association between interpretations of threat, negative emotion, and control was assessed using hypothetical ambiguous scenarios in a sample of 271 anxious and nonanxious mothers of 7- to 12-year-old children with an anxiety disorder. Mothers also rated their expectations when presented with real life challenge tasks. Results There was a significant association between maternal anxiety disorder status and negative expectations of child coping behaviors. Mothers’ self-referent interpretations were found to mediate this relationship. Responses to ambiguous hypothetical scenarios correlated significantly with responses to real life challenge tasks. Conclusions Treatments for childhood anxiety disorders in the context of parental anxiety disorders may benefit from the inclusion of a component to directly address parental cognitions. Some inconsistencies were found when comparing maternal expectations in response to hypothetical scenarios with real life challenges. This should be addressed in future research.

On the evolutionary origins of obesity: a new hypothesis

Obesity is an escalating threat of pandemic proportions, currently affecting billions of people worldwide and exerting a devastating socioeconomic influence in industrialized countries. Despite intensive efforts to curtail obesity, results have proved disappointing. Although it is well recognized that obesity is a result of gene-environment interactions and that predisposition to obesity lies predominantly in our evolutionary past, there is much debate as to the precise nature of how our evolutionary past contributed to obesity. The “thrifty genotype” hypothesis suggests that obesity in industrialized countries is a throwback to our ancestors having undergone positive selection for genes that favored energy storage as a consequence of the cyclical episodes of famine and surplus after the advent of farming 10 000 years ago. Conversely, the “drifty genotype” hypothesis contends that the prevalence of thrifty genes is not a result of positive selection for energy-storage genes but attributable to genetic drift resulting from the removal of predative selection pressures. Both theories, however, assume that selection pressures the ancestors of modern humans living in western societies faced were the same. Moreover, neither theory adequately explains the impact of globalization and changing population demographics on the genetic basis for obesity in developed countries, despite clear evidence for ethnic variation in obesity susceptibility and related metabolic disorders. In this article, we propose that the modern obesity pandemic in industrialized countries is a result of the differential exposure of the ancestors of modern humans to environmental factors that began when modern humans left Africa around 70 000 years ago and migrated through the globe, reaching the Americas around 20 000 years ago. This article serves to elucidate how an understanding of ethnic differences in genetic susceptibility to obesity and the metabolic syndrome, in the context of historic human population redistribution, could be used in the treatment of obesity in industrialized countries

A genome-wide test of the differential susceptibility hypothesis reveals a genetic predictor of differential response to psychological treatments for child anxiety disorders

Background: The differential susceptibly hypothesis suggests that certain genetic variants moderate the effects of both negative and positive environments on mental health and may therefore be important predictors of response to psychological treatments. Nevertheless, the identification of such variants has so far been limited to preselected candidate genes. In this study we extended the differential susceptibility hypothesis from a candidate gene to a genome-wide approach to test whether a polygenic score of environmental sensitivity predicted response to Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) in children with anxiety disorders. Methods: We identified variants associated with environmental sensitivity using a novel method in which within-pair variability in emotional problems in 1026 monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs was examined as a function of the pairs’ genotype. We created a polygenic score of environmental sensitivity based on the whole-genome findings and tested the score as a moderator of parenting on emotional problems in 1,406 children and response to individual, group and brief parent-led CBT in 973 children with anxiety disorders. Results: The polygenic score significantly moderated the effects of parenting on emotional problems and the effects of treatment. Individuals with a high score responded significantly better to individual CBT than group CBT or brief parent-led CBT (remission rates: 70.9%, 55.5% and 41.6% respectively). Conclusions: Pending successful replication, our results should be considered exploratory. Nevertheless, if replicated, they suggest that individuals with the greatest environmental sensitivity may be more likely to develop emotional problems in adverse environments, but also benefit more from the most intensive types of treatment.

The matrix-tolerance hypothesis: an empirical test with frogs in the Atlantic Forest

The matrix-tolerance hypothesis suggests that the most abundant species in the inter-habitat matrix would be less vulnerable to their habitat fragmentation. This model was tested with leaf-litter frogs in the Atlantic Forest where the fragmentation process is older and more severe than in the Amazon, where the model was first developed. Frog abundance data from the agricultural matrix, forest fragments and continuous forest localities were used. We found an expected negative correlation between the abundance of frogs in the matrix and their vulnerability to fragmentation, however, results varied with fragment size and species traits. Smaller fragments exhibited stronger matrix-vulnerability correlation than intermediate fragments, while no significant relation was observed for large fragments. Moreover, some species that avoid the matrix were not sensitive to a decrease in the patch size, and the opposite was also true, indicating significant differences with that expected from the model. Most of the species that use the matrix were forest species with aquatic larvae development, but those species do not necessarily respond to fragmentation or fragment size, and thus affect more intensively the strengthen of the expected relationship. Therefore, the main relationship expected by the matrix-tolerance hypothesis was observed in the Atlantic Forest; however we noted that the prediction of this hypothesis can be substantially affected by the size of the fragments, and by species traits. We propose that matrix-tolerance model should be broadened to become a more effective model, including other patch characteristics, particularly fragment size, and individual species traits (e. g., reproductive mode and habitat preference).

Hypothesis testing in an errors-in-variables model with heteroscedastic measurement errors

In many epidemiological studies it is common to resort to regression models relating incidence of a disease and its risk factors. The main goal of this paper is to consider inference on such models with error-prone observations and variances of the measurement errors changing across observations. We suppose that the observations follow a bivariate normal distribution and the measurement errors are normally distributed. Aggregate data allow the estimation of the error variances. Maximum likelihood estimates are computed numerically via the EM algorithm. Consistent estimation of the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimators is also discussed. Test statistics are proposed for testing hypotheses of interest. Further, we implement a simple graphical device that enables an assessment of the model`s goodness of fit. Results of simulations concerning the properties of the test statistics are reported. The approach is illustrated with data from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Network genealogy of 195-bp satellite DNA supports the superimposed hybridization hypothesis of Trypanosoma cruzi evolutionary pattern

Trypanosoma cruzi is highly diverse genetically and has been partitioned into six discrete typing units (DTUs), recently re-named T. cruzi I-VI. Although T. cruzi reproduces predominantly by binary division, accumulating evidence indicates that particular DTUs are the result of hybridization events. Two major scenarios for the origin of the hybrid lineages have been proposed. It is accepted widely that the most heterozygous TcV and TcVI DTUs are the result of genetic exchange between TcII and TcIII strains. On the other hand, the participation of a TcI parental in the current genome structure of these hybrid strains is a matter of debate. Here, sequences of the T. cruzi-specific 195-bp satellite DNA of TcI, TcII, Tat, TcV, and TcVI strains have been used for inferring network genealogies. The resulting genealogy showed a high degree of reticulation, which is consistent with more than one event of hybridization between the Tc DTUs. The data also strongly suggest that Tat is a hybrid with two distinct sets of satellite sequences, and that genetic exchange between TcI and TcII parentals occurred within the pedigree of the TcV and TcVI DTUs. Although satellite DNAs belong to the fast-evolving portion of eukaryotic genomes, in >100 satellite units of nine T. cruzi strains we found regions that display 100% identity. No DTU-specific consensus motifs were identified, inferring species-wide conservation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.