Technology transition towards electric mobility - technology assessment as a tool for policy design

Paper presented at the Colloquium Gerpisa 2013, Paris (http://gerpisa.org/node/2085), Session n°: 19 New kinds of mobility: old and new business models

Study of the electromyographic signal dynamic behavior in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disease characterized by motor neurons degeneration, which reduces muscular force, being very difficult to diagnose. Mathematical methods are used in order to analyze the surface electromiographic signal’s dynamic behavior (Fractal Dimension (FD) and Multiscale Entropy (MSE)), evaluate different muscle group’s synchronization (Coherence and Phase Locking Factor (PLF)) and to evaluate the signal’s complexity (Lempel-Ziv (LZ) techniques and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA)). Surface electromiographic signal acquisitions were performed in upper limb muscles, being the analysis executed for instants of contraction for ipsilateral acquisitions for patients and control groups. Results from LZ, DFA and MSE analysis present capability to distinguish between the patient group and the control group, whereas coherence, PLF and FD algorithms present results very similar for both groups. LZ, DFA and MSE algorithms appear then to be a good measure of corticospinal pathways integrity. A classification algorithm was applied to the results in combination with extracted features from the surface electromiographic signal, with an accuracy percentage higher than 70% for 118 combinations for at least one classifier. The classification results demonstrate capability to distinguish members between patients and control groups. These results can demonstrate a major importance in the disease diagnose, once surface electromyography (sEMG) may be used as an auxiliary diagnose method.

Application of geographic information system and modelling in health impact assessment for urban road mobility in Vietnam

Transport is an essential sector in modern societies. It connects economic sectors and industries. Next to its contribution to economic development and social interconnection, it also causes adverse impacts on the environment and results in health hazards. Transport is a major source of ground air pollution, especially in urban areas, and therefore contributing to the health problems, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancer, and physical injuries. This thesis presents the results of a health risk assessment that quantifies the mortality and the diseases associated with particulate matter pollution resulting from urban road transport in Hai Phong City, Vietnam. The focus is on the integration of modelling and GIS approaches in the exposure analysis to increase the accuracy of the assessment and to produce timely and consistent assessment results. The modelling was done to estimate traffic conditions and concentrations of particulate matters based on geo-references data. A simplified health risk assessment was also done for Ha Noi based on monitoring data that allows a comparison of the results between the two cases. The results of the case studies show that health risk assessment based on modelling data can provide a much more detail results and allows assessing health impacts of different mobility development options at micro level. The use of modeling and GIS as a common platform for the integration of different assessments (environmental, health, socio-economic, etc.) provides various strengths, especially in capitalising on the available data stored in different units and forms and allows handling large amount of data. The use of models and GIS in a health risk assessment, from a decision making point of view, can reduce the processing/waiting time while providing a view at different scales: from micro scale (sections of a city) to a macro scale. It also helps visualising the links between air quality and health outcomes which is useful discussing different development options. However, a number of improvements can be made to further advance the integration. An improved integration programme of the data will facilitate the application of integrated models in policy-making. Data on mobility survey, environmental monitoring and measuring must be standardised and legalised. Various traffic models, together with emission and dispersion models, should be tested and more attention should be given to their uncertainty and sensitivity

Transactions in dynamic reactive environments

Most of today’s systems, especially when related to the Web or to multi-agent systems, are not standalone or independent, but are part of a greater ecosystem, where they need to interact with other entities, react to complex changes in the environment, and act both over its own knowledge base and on the external environment itself. Moreover, these systems are clearly not static, but are constantly evolving due to the execution of self updates or external actions. Whenever actions and updates are possible, the need to ensure properties regarding the outcome of performing such actions emerges. Originally purposed in the context of databases, transactions solve this problem by guaranteeing atomicity, consistency, isolation and durability of a special set of actions. However, current transaction solutions fail to guarantee such properties in dynamic environments, since they cannot combine transaction execution with reactive features, or with the execution of actions over domains that the system does not completely control (thus making rolling back a non-viable proposition). In this thesis, we investigate what and how transaction properties can be ensured over these dynamic environments. To achieve this goal, we provide logic-based solutions, based on Transaction Logic, to precisely model and execute transactions in such environments, and where knowledge bases can be defined by arbitrary logic theories.

Tool for spatial and dynamic representation of artistic performances

This proposal aims to explore the use of available technologies for video representation of sets and performers in order to serve as support for composition processes and artistic performer rehearsals, while focusing in representing the performer’s body and its movements, and its relation with objects belonging to the three-dimensional space of their performances. This project’s main goal is to design and develop a system that can spatially represent the performer and its movements, by means of capturing processes and reconstruction using a camera device, as well as enhance the three-dimensional space where the performance occurs by allowing interaction with virtual objects and by adding a video component, either for documentary purposes, or for live performances effects (for example, using video mapping video techniques in captured video or projection during a performance).

Dynamic behavior of sylvatic yellow fever in Brazil (1954-2008)

INTRODUCTION: Sylvatic yellow fever (SYF) is enzootic in Brazil, causing periodic outbreaks in humans living near forest borders or in rural areas. In this study, the cycling patterns of this arbovirosis were analyzed. METHODS: Spectral Fourier analysis was used to capture the periodicity patterns of SYF in time series. RESULTS: SYF outbreaks have not increased in frequency, only in the number of cases. There are two dominant cycles in SYF outbreaks, a seven year cycle for the central-western region and a 14 year cycle for the northern region. Most of the variance was concentrated in the central-western region and dominated the entire endemic region. CONCLUSIONS: The seven year cycle is predominant in the endemic region of the disease due the greater contribution of variance in the central-western region; however, it was possible identify a 14 cycle that governs SYF outbreaks in the northern region. No periodicities were identified for the remaining geographical regions.

Pedestrian Priority Zones in the Context of Urban Mobility and Valorization of Public Space

The second half of the XX century was marked by a great increase in the number of people living in cities. Urban agglomerations became poles of attraction for migration flows and these phenomena, coupled with growing car-ownership rates, resulted in the fact that modern transport systems are characterized by large number of users and traffic modes. The necessity to organize these complex systems and to provide space for different traffic modes changed the way cities look. Urban areas had to cope with traffic flows, and as a result nowadays typical street pattern consists of a road for motorized vehicles, a cycle lane (in some cases), pavement for pedestrians, parking and a range of crucial signage to facilitate navigation and make mobility more secure. However, this type of street organization may not be desirable in certain areas, more specifically, in the city centers. Downtown areas have always been places where economic, leisure, social and other types of facilities are concentrated, not surprisingly, they often attract large number of people and this frequently results in traffic jams, air and noise pollution, thus creating unpleasant environment. Besides, excessive traffic signage in central locations can harm the image and perception of a place, this relates in particular to historical centers with architectural heritage.

DYNAMOD – A dynamic agent based modelling framework for digital businesses

Digital Businesses have become a major driver for economic growth and have seen an explosion of new startups. At the same time, it also includes mature enterprises that have become global giants in a relatively short period of time. Digital Businesses have unique characteristics that make the running and management of a Digital Business much different from traditional offline businesses. Digital businesses respond to online users who are highly interconnected and networked. This enables a rapid flow of word of mouth, at a pace far greater than ever envisioned when dealing with traditional products and services. The relatively low cost of incremental user addition has led to a variety of innovation in pricing of digital products, including various forms of free and freemium pricing models. This thesis explores the unique characteristics and complexities of Digital Businesses and its implications on the design of Digital Business Models and Revenue Models. The thesis proposes an Agent Based Modeling Framework that can be used to develop Simulation Models that simulate the complex dynamics of Digital Businesses and the user interactions between users of a digital product. Such Simulation models can be used for a variety of purposes such as simple forecasting, analysing the impact of market disturbances, analysing the impact of changes in pricing models and optimising the pricing for maximum revenue generation or a balance between growth in usage and revenue generation. These models can be developed for a mature enterprise with a large historical record of user growth rate as well as for early stage enterprises without much historical data. Through three case studies, the thesis demonstrates the applicability of the Framework and its potential applications.

Dynamic delta hedging of autocallables under a discrete rebalancing context

This work tests different delta hedging strategies for two products issued by Banco de Investimento Global in 2012. The work studies the behaviour of the delta and gamma of autocallables and their impact on the results when delta hedging with different rebalancing periods. Given its discontinuous payoff and path dependency, it is suggested the hedging portfolio is rebalanced on a daily basis to better follow market changes. Moreover, a mixed strategy is analysed where time to maturity is used as a criterion to change the rebalancing frequency.

Correlates of intergenerational mobility and political violence

This work project aims at exploring the role of intergenerational immobility in political violence. A cross-country macro-level analysis is done where no significant results are found. Additionally, an individual micro-level analysis is done where intergenerational mobility (measured through a proxy variable) has a negative significant effect in political violence

Competition effects from patient mobility in the European Union

This paper studies the effects of reimbursement for medical tourism within the European Union. We use a spatial competition framework to study the effects on prices, qualities and patient flows between two countries. Patient mobility increases with the implementation of reimbursement mechanisms. The resulting equilibria in prices and qualities depend on the rule of reimbursements and possible differences in country specific parameters. Soft budget constraints that public providers may have, pose a competitive advantage over private providers and divert demand toward the former. Supranational coordination concerning soft budgets constraints is needed to address the potentially detrimental effects on aggregate welfar

Nestle's dynamic forecasting process: Anticipating risks and opportunities

Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process: Anticipating Risks and Opportunities This Work Project discusses the Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process, implemented within the organization as a way of reengineering its performance management concept and processes, so as to make it more flexible and capable to react to volatile business conditions. When stressing the importance of demand planning to reallocate resources and enhance performance, Nescafé Dolce Gusto comes as way of seeking improvements on this forecasts’ accuracy and it is thus, by providing a more accurate model on its capsules’ sales, as well as recommending adequate implementations that positively contribute to the referred Planning Process, that value is brought to the Project

Historic and potential technology transition paths of grid battery storage: Co-evolution of energy grid, electric mobility and batteries

Scarcity of fuels, changes in environmental policy and in society increased the interest in generating electric energy from renewable energy sources (RES) for a sustainable energy supply in the future. The main problem of RES as solar and wind energy, which represent a main pillar of this transition, is that they cannot supply constant power output. This results inter alia in an increased demand of backup technologies as batteries to assure electricity system safety. The diffusion of energy storage technologies is highly dependent on the energy system and transport transition pathways which might lead to a replacement or reconfiguration of embedded socio-technical practices and regimes (by creating new standards or dominant designs, changing regulations, infrastructure and user patterns). The success of this technology is dependent on hardly predictable future technical advances, actor preferences, development of competing technologies and designs, diverging interests of actors, future cost efficiencies, environmental performance, the evolution of market demand and design and evolution of our society.

How to improve urban mobility in Lisbon: intermodality and information and ticketing systems

Urban mobility is one of the main challenges facing urban areas due to the growing population and to traffic congestion, resulting in environmental pressures. The pathway to urban sustainable mobility involves strengthening of intermodal mobility. The integrated use of different transport modes is getting more and more important and intermodality has been mentioned as a way for public transport compete with private cars. The aim of the current dissertation is to define a set of strategies to improve urban mobility in Lisbon and by consequence reduce the environmental impacts of transports. In order to do that several intermodal practices over Europe were analysed and the transport systems of Brussels and Lisbon were studied and compared, giving special attention to intermodal systems. In the case study was gathered data from both cities in the field, by using and observing the different transport modes, and two surveys were done to the cities users. As concluded by the study, Brussels and Lisbon present significant differences. In Brussels the measures to promote intermodality are evident, while in Lisbon a lot still needs to be done. It also made clear the necessity for improvements in Lisbon’s public transports to a more intermodal passenger transport system, through integration of different transport modes and better information and ticketing system. Some of the points requiring developments are: interchanges’ waiting areas; integration of bicycle in public transport; information about correspondences with other transport modes; real-time information to passengers pre-trip and on-trip, especially in buses and trams. After the identification of the best practices in Brussels and the weaknesses in Lisbon the possibility of applying some of the practices in Brussels to Lisbon was evaluated. Brussels demonstrated to be a good example of intermodality and for that reason some of the recommendations to improve intermodal mobility in Lisbon can follow the practices in place in Brussels.

Dynamic range prediction for an electric vehicle

Electric Vehicles (EVs) have limited energy storage capacity and the maximum autonomy range is strongly dependent of the driver's behaviour. Due to the fact of that batteries cannot be recharged quickly during a journey, it is essential that a precise range prediction is available to the driver of the EV. With this information, it is possible to check if the desirable destination is achievable without a stop to charge the batteries, or even, if to reach the destination it is necessary to perform an optimized driving (e.g., cutting the air-conditioning, among others EV parameters). The outcome of this research work is the development of an Electric Vehicle Assistant (EVA). This is an application for mobile devices that will help users to take efficient decisions about route planning, charging management and energy efficiency. Therefore, it will contribute to foster EVs adoption as a new paradigm in the transportation sector.