A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Antioxidant status and biomarkers of oxidative stress in bovine leukemia virus-infected dairy cows

Bovine leukemia virus (BLV) is among the most widespread livestock pathogens in many countries. Despite advances in understanding the pathogenesis of this disease, little is known about the involvement of oxidative stress. Therefore, this study examined the antioxidant status and the markers of oxidative stress in BLV-infected dairy cows. BLV infection was associated with an increase in triacylglycerol levels, a decrease in glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) activity and a tendency toward lower superoxide dismutase activity in the infected animals. No significant difference was observed in other markers of oxidative stress (i.e., conjugated dienes, hydroperoxides and malondialdehyde) in the infected animals compared to controls. A novel method for the analysis of oxidative stress, Z-scan based on the measurement of the mean-value of 9 in low density lipoprotein indicated that the infected animals had low-density lipoprotein particles that were slightly less modified than those from the healthy group. Thus, we conclude that BLV infection is associated with a selective decrease in GSH-Px activity without any alteration in the common plasma markers of oxidative stress. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Natural, but not lyophilized, low density lypoproteins were an acceptable alternative to egg yolk for cryopreservation of ram semen

The objective was to evaluate the suitability of using natural or lyophilized low density lipoproteins (LDL), in lieu of whole egg yolk, in extenders for cryopreserving ram semen. Once extragonadal sperm reserves were depleted in 10 fertile Santa Ines cross rams, two ejaculates per ram were collected for cryopreservation. Nine extenders were used: Tris-16% egg yolk extender with 5% glycerol as a control (T1), and substitution of whole egg yolk with 8, 12, 16 or 20% natural LDL (T2-T5, respectively), or with 8, 12, 16, or 20% lyophilized LDL (T6-T9). Semen was diluted to 100 X 10(6) sperm/mL, packaged into 0.25 mL straws, cooled, held at 5 C for 3 h, and then frozen in liquid nitrogen vapor. Immediately after thawing (37 degrees C for 30 s), sperm total and progressive motility, and kinetic parameters were analyzed with computer assisted semen analysis (CASA). Percentage of sperm with plasma membrane functional integrity was assessed by the hypoosmotic swelling test (HOST), sperm membrane physical integrity with propidium iodide (PI), and acrosome integrity with FITC-PSA using an epifluorescent microscope. For all sperm end points, there was no difference between the control and natural LDL treatments (P > 0.05): total motility (T1: 20.9 +/- 11.9 and average of T2-T5: 25.9 +/- 13.6%; mean SD), progressive motility (T1: 6.6 +/- 4.2 and average of T2-T5: 11.7 +/- 7.5%), HOST(+) (T1: 23.7 +/- 6.9 and average of T2-T5: 23.2 +/- 8.7%) and PI(-)/PSA(-) (T1: 13.8 +/- 7.8 and average of T2-T5: 18.1 +/- 7.8%). However, lyophilization was apparently unable to preserve the protective function of LDL; every sperm end point was significantly worse than in the control and natural LDL groups. We concluded that natural LDL was appropriate for cryopreserving ram semen, as it yielded results similar to those obtained with whole egg yolk. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Density of the Near Threatened jaguar Panthera onca in the caatinga of north-eastern Brazil

We report the first estimate of jaguar density in the semi-arid caatinga biome of north-eastern Brazil. During August-October 2007, in the Serra da Capivara National Park, we used camera traps to identify and count jaguars. Jaguar abundance and density were calculated using mark-recapture models. In a sampling effort of 1,249 camera-trap-nights we identified 12 adult jaguars and estimated an 2 abundance of 14 +/- 3.6 jaguars in an area of 524 km(2), i.e. a density of 2.67 +/- 1.00 jaguars per 100 km(2). This estimate is higher than in most other Brazilian biomes and indicates Serra da Capivara National Park as an important reserve for protecting jaguars in north-eastern Brazil.

Maned Wolf Density in a Central Brazilian Grassland Reserve

The maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) inhabits the savannah-like Cerrado of Brazil. Although 80% of this biome has already been affected by human activity, little is known about maned wolf abundance. Using mark-recapture models, we obtained the first density estimate from central Brazil, the core of maned wolf distribution. With 5.19 individuals/100 km(2), even large reserves support only small maned wolf populations. Therefore, long-term conservation of the maned wolf depends on land management outside of reserves. ( JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 73( 1): 68-71; 2009)

Recreational fishing: Its expansion, its economic value and aquaculture's role in sustaining it

Economic growth usually leads to a substantial increase in the demand for recreational fishing, and China is likely to follow this trend. Factors influencing this expansion in demand are identified. Recreational fishing is of major economic importance in higher income countries and indicators of its economic significance are given. Growing demand for recreational fishing results in intensified involvement of recreational fishers in conflicts about resource use. With increasing demand for recreational fishing, recreational fishers face growing competition with one another for limited fish stocks and with commercial fishers. Their concerns for environmental threats to fish stocks also intensify. Furthermore, some strategies of recreational fishers are increasingly criticised by conservationists. Governments, therefore, are put under pressure to adopt policies to address these conflicts. Some of the policy measures adopted to help sustain the fisheries and reduce conflict are outlined. These include limits on the catch and exclusive zones for recreational fishing. However, wild stocks of fish are likely to remain under mounting harvesting and other pressures. Therefore, we need to consider the role that aquaculture can play in overcoming these problems. The possible ways in which aquaculture can do this are outlined and discussed.

The history and value of the elephant in Sri Lankan society

Reviews the literature to provide an overview of the historical significance of the elephant in Sri Lankan society, an association which dates back more than 4,000 years. The present status of this relationship assessed on the basis of the findings of a recent study undertaken on the total economic value of elephants in Sri Lanka. This paper, first briefly outlines the history, evolution, nature and their distribution of the Asian elephant while providing some insights on the status of the elephant (Elephas maxima maxima) in Sri Lanka. Next, it reviews the literature in order to assess the historical affiliation that the elephant has maintained with the Sri Lankan society, its culture, history, mythology and religion. The empirical evidence on the economic value of conservation of the remaining elephant population in Sri Lanka is reviewed and the Sri Lankan people’s attitudes towards conserving this species of wildlife. Literature reviewed and analysis undertaken indicates that the elephant in Sri Lanka, still, as in the past has a special place in Sri Lankan society, particularly, in its culture, religion and value system. Thus, there is a strong case for ensuring the survival of wild elephant population in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, it also suggests that the community as a whole will experience a net benefit from ensuring the survival of wild elephants in Sri Lanka.

Bone crestal height and bone density after third-molar extraction and grafting: a long-term follow-up study

The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term influence of xenogenic grafts on bone crestal height and radiographic density following extraction of teeth. The right and left third lower molars of 22 patients were surgically extracted, and one randomly chosen socket was filled with a xenogenic graft (Gent-Tech). The contralateral molar was left to heal naturally, serving as a paired control. Digital intraoral radiographies were taken at surgery and 2, 6, and 24 months after, to evaluate bone density (BD) and alveolar bone crest to cementoenamel junction distance. The data obtained were subjected to two-way analysis of variance and Tukey`s test (alpha = 0.05). The significant decrease in cementoenamel junction distance observed for both groups was limited to the first 6 months. BD values increased significantly in the first 6 months, with no alterations observed up to 24 months for both groups. BD was higher for the experimental group at all time points (p < 0.05). Socket grafting with the xenogenic materials tested did not changed bone crestal height and bone radiographic density in the long term.

Three-point boundary value problems for second-order, ordinary, differential equations

We establish existence results for solutions to three-point boundary value problems for nonlinear, second-order, ordinary differential equations with nonlinear boundary conditions. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Topological methods for some boundary value problems

We establish existence of solutions for a finite difference approximation to y = f(x, y, y ') on [0, 1], subject to nonlinear two-point Sturm-Liouville boundary conditions of the form g(i)(y(i),y ' (i)) = 0, i = 0, 1, assuming S satisfies one-sided growth bounds with respect to y '. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.