Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Modeling hourly and daily fractions of UV, PAR and NIR to global solar radiation under various sky conditions at Botucatu, Brazil

In this analysis, using available hourly and daily radiometric data performed at Botucatu, Brazil, several empirical models relating ultraviolet (UV), photosynthetically active (PAR) and near infrared (NIR) solar global components with solar global radiation (G) are established. These models are developed and discussed through clearness index K(T) (ratio of the global-to-extraterrestrial solar radiation). Results obtained reveal that the proposed empirical models predict hourly and daily values accurately. Finally. the overall analysis carried Out demonstrates that the sky conditions are more important in developing correlation models between the UV component and the global solar radiation. The linear regression models derived to estimate PAR and NIR components may be obtained without sky condition considerations within a maximum variation of 8%. In the case of UV, not taking into consideration the sky condition may cause a discrepancy of up to 18% for hourly values and 15% for daily values. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CMB and LSS constraints on a single-field model of inflation

A new inflationary scenario whose exponential potential V (Phi) has a quadratic dependence on the field Phi in addition to the standard linear term is confronted with the five-year observations of the Wilkinson-Microwave Anisotropy Probe and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey data. The number of e-folds (N), the ratio of tensor-to-scalar perturbations (r), the spectral scalar index of the primordial power spectrum (n(s)) and its running (dn(s)/d ln k) depend on the dimensionless parameter a multiplying the quadratic term in the potential. In the limit a. 0 all the results of the exponential potential are fully recovered. For values of alpha not equal 0, we find that the model predictions are in good agreement with the current observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropies and Large-Scale Structure (LSS) in the Universe. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2008.

DAILY VARIATION OF CONSTITUTIVELY ACTIVATED NUCLEAR FACTOR KAPPA B (NFKB) IN RAT PINEAL GLAND

In mammals, the production of melatonin by the pineal gland is mainly controlled by the suprachiasmatic nuclei (SCN), the master clock of the circadian system. We have previously shown that agents involved in inflammatory responses, such as cytokines and corticosterone, modulate pineal melatonin synthesis. The nuclear transcription factor NFKB, detected by our group in the rat pineal gland, modulates this effect. Here, we evaluated a putative constitutive role for the pineal gland NFKB pathway. Male rats were kept under 12 h: 12 h light-dark (LD) cycle or under constant darkness (DD) condition. Nuclear NFKB was quantified by electrophoretic mobility shift assay on pineal glands obtained from animals killed throughout the day at different times. Nuclear content of NFKB presented a daily rhythm only in LD-entrained animals. During the light phase, the amount of NFKB increased continuously, and a sharp drop occurred when lights were turned off. Animals maintained in a constant light environment until ZT 18 showed diurnal levels of nuclear NFKB at ZT15 and ZT18. Propranolol (20 mg/kg, i.p., ZT 11) treatment, which inhibits nocturnal sympathetic input, impaired nocturnal decrease of NFKB only at ZT18. A similar effect was observed in free-running animals, which secreted less nocturnal melatonin. Because melatonin reduces constitutive NFKB activation in cultured pineal glands, we propose that this indolamine regulates this transcription factor pathway in the rat pineal gland, but not at the LD transition. The controversial results regarding the inhibition of pineal function by constant light or blocking sympathetic neurotransmission are discussed according to the hypothesis that the prompt effect of lights-off is not mediated by noradrenaline, which otherwise contributes to maintaining low levels of nuclear NFKB at night. In summary, we report here a novel transcription factor in the pineal gland, which exhibits a constitutive rhythm dependent on environmental photic information. (Author correspondence: rpmarkus@usp.br)

Ethanol consumption and pineal melatonin daily profile in rats

It is well known that melatonin participates in the regulation of many important physiological functions such as sleep-wakefulness cycle, motor coordination and neural plasticity, and cognition. However, as there are contradictory results regarding the melatonin production diurnal profile under alcohol consumption, the aim of this paper was to study the phenomenology and mechanisms of the putative modifications on the daily profile of melatonin production in rats submitted to chronic alcohol intake. The present results show that rats receiving 10% ethanol in drinking water for 35 days display an altered daily profile of melatonin production, with a phase delay and a reduction in the nocturnal peak. This can be partially explained by a loss of the daily rhythm and the 25% reduction in tryptophan hydroxylase activity and, mainly, by a phase delay in arylalkylamine N-acetyltransferase gene expression and a 70% reduction in its peak activity. Upstream in the melatonin synthesis pathway, the results showed that noradrenergic signaling is impaired as well, with a decrease in beta 1 and alpha 1 adrenergic receptors` mRNA contents and in vitro sustained loss of noradrenergic-stimulated melatonin production by glands from alcohol-treated rats. Together, these results confirm the alterations in the daily melatonin profile of alcoholic rats and suggest the possible mechanisms for the observed melatonin synthesis modification.

COMPARISON BETWEEN LINEAR AND DAILY UNDULATING PERIODIZED RESISTANCE TRAINING TO INCREASE STRENGTH

Prestes, J, Frollini, AB, De Lima, C, Donatto, FF, Foschini, D, de Marqueti, RC, Figueira Jr, A, and Fleck, SJ. Comparison between linear and daily undulating periodized resistance training to increase strength. J Strength Cond Res 23(9): 2437-2442, 2009-To determine the most effective periodization model for strength and hypertrophy is an important step for strength and conditioning professionals. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of linear (LP) and daily undulating periodized (DUP) resistance training on body composition and maximal strength levels. Forty men aged 21.5 +/- 8.3 and with a minimum 1-year strength training experience were assigned to an LP (n = 20) or DUP group (n = 20). Subjects were tested for maximal strength in bench press, leg press 45 degrees, and arm curl (1 repetition maximum [RM]) at baseline (T1), after 8 weeks (T2), and after 12 weeks of training (T3). Increases of 18.2 and 25.08% in bench press 1 RM were observed for LP and DUP groups in T3 compared with T1, respectively (p <= 0.05). In leg press 45 degrees, LP group exhibited an increase of 24.71% and DUP of 40.61% at T3 compared with T1. Additionally, DUP showed an increase of 12.23% at T2 compared with T1 and 25.48% at T3 compared with T2. For the arm curl exercise, LP group increased 14.15% and DUP 23.53% at T3 when compared with T1. An increase of 20% was also found at T2 when compared with T1, for DUP. Although the DUP group increased strength the most in all exercises, no statistical differences were found between groups. In conclusion, undulating periodized strength training induced higher increases in maximal strength than the linear model in strength-trained men. For maximizing strength increases, daily intensity and volume variations were more effective than weekly variations.

S100 beta Protein Expression: Gender- and Age-Related Daily Changes

S100 beta is a soluble protein released by glial cells mainly under the activation of the 5-HT1A receptor. It has been reported as a neuro-trophic and -tropic factor that promotes neurite maturation and outgrowth during development. This protein also plays a role in axonal stability and the plasticity underlying long-term potentiation in adult brains. The ability of S100 beta to rapidly regulate neuronal morphology raises the interesting point of whether there are daily rhythm or gender differences in S100 beta level in the brain. To answer this question, the S100 beta expression in adult female and male rats, as well as in adult female CD-21 and S100 beta -/- female mice, were investigated. Scintillation counting and morphometric analysis of the immunoreactivity of S100 beta, showed rhythmic daily expression. The female and male rats showed opposite cycles. Females presented the highest value at the beginning of the rest phase (5:00 h), while in males the maximum value appeared in the beginning of the motor activity period (21:00 h). These results confirm previous S100 beta evaluations in human serum and cerebrospinal fluid reporting the protein`s function as a biomarker for brain damage (Gazzolo et al. in Clin Chem 49:967-970, 2003; Clin Chim Acta 330:131-133, 2003; Pediatr Res 58:1170-1174, 2005), similar behavior was also observed for GFAP in relation to Alzheimer Disease (Fukuyama et al. in Eur Neurol 46:35-38, 2001). The data should be taken into account when considering S100 beta as a biomarker of health condition. In addition, the results raise questions on which structure or condition imposes these rhythms as well as on the physiological meaning of the observed gender differences.

MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

Daily Calls Volume Forecasting

A massive amount has been written about forecasting but few articles are written about the development of time series models of call volumes for emergency services. In this study, we use different techniques for forecasting and make the comparison of the techniques for the call volume of the emergency service Rescue 1122 Lahore, Pakistan. For the purpose of this study data is taken from emergency calls of Rescue 1122 from 1st January 2008 to 31 December 2009 and 731 observations are used. Our goal is to develop a simple model that could be used for forecasting the daily call volume. Two different approaches are used for forecasting the daily call volume Box and Jenkins (ARIMA) methodology and Smoothing methodology. We generate the models for forecasting of call volume and present a comparison of the two different techniques.

A computer study of the improvement of PV panel monthly outputs when the panel azimuth is changed thrice daily

The purpose of the calculations was to estimate the most suitable slopes and azimuths for three different positions per day of a solar panel in order to obtain the most possible energy from the PV panel compared with a stationary PV panel. The calculations were made in the computer program PV F-CHART.

Are central bank independence reforms necessary for achieving low and stable inflation?

Using data on the occurence of central bank independence (CBI) reforms in 131 countries during 1980-2005, we test whether they were important in reducing inflation and maintaining price stability. CBI reforms are found to have reduced inflation on average 3.31% when countries with historically high inflation rates are included. But countries with lower inflation have reduced it without institutional reforms granting central banks more independence, undermining the theoretical time-inconsistency case for CBI. There is furthermore no evidence that CBI reforms have helped reduce inflation variability.

Effects of central bank independence reforms on inflation in different parts of the world

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of CBI-reforms on inflation in different parts of the world from a theoretical and empirical perspective. Compared to previous studies, this study focuses on whether CBI-reforms have different effects on reducing inflation in different parts of the world. The study is based on a 132 country data-set from 1980 to 2005 compiled by Daunfeldt et al. (2008). The result indicates that the reduction in inflation due to the CBI-reforms varies between 2.2 and 12.32 percentage points in Asia, Europe, South America and Oceania, supporting the claim that implementing CBI-reforms can be successful in reducing inflation in most of the parts of the world.

Struggling with daily life and enduring pain : a qualitative study of women's experiences with pelvic girdle pain during pregnancy

Background. Few studies have investigated the experiences of living with pelvic girdle pain (PGP) and its impact on pregnant women’s lives. To address this gap in knowledge, this study investigates the experiences of women living with PGP during pregnancy. Methods. A purposive sample, of nine pregnant women with diagnosed PGP, were interviewed about their experiences. Interviews were recorded, transcribed to text and analysed using a Grounded Theory approach. Results. The core category that evolved from the analysis of experiences of living with PGP in pregnancy was “struggling with daily life and enduring pain”. Three properties addressing the actions caused by PGP were identified: i) grasping the incomprehensible; ii) balancing support and dependence and iii) managing the losses. These experiences expressed by the informants constitute a basis for the consequences of PGP: iv) enduring pain; v) being a burden; vi) calculating the risks and the experiences of the informants as vii) abdicating as a mother. Finally, the informants’ experiences of the consequences regarding the current pregnancy and any potential future pregnancies is presented in viii) paying the price and reconsidering the future. A conceptual model of the actions and consequences experienced by the pregnant informants living with PGP is presented. Conclusions. PGP during pregnancy greatly affects the informant’s experiences of her pregnancy, her roles in relationships, and her social context. For informants with young children, PGP negatively affects the role of being a mother, a situation that further strains the experience. As the constant pain disturbs most aspects of the lives of the informants, improvements in the treatment of PGP is of importance as to increase the quality of life. This pregnancy-related condition is prevalent and must be considered a major public health concern during pregnancy.

The discourses on induced abortion in Ugandan daily newspapers : a discourse analysis

Background: Ugandan law prohibits abortion under all circumstances except where there is a risk for the woman's life. However, it has been estimated that over 250 000 illegal abortions are being performed in the country yearly. Many of these abortions are carried out under unsafe conditions, being one of the most common reasons behind the nearly 5000 maternal deaths per year in Uganda. Little research has been conducted in relation to societal views on abortion within the Ugandan society. This study aims to analyze the discourse on abortion as expressed in the two main daily Ugandan newspapers. Method: The conceptual content of 59 articles on abortion between years 2006-2012, from the two main daily English-speaking newspapers in Uganda, was studied using principles from critical discourse analysis. Results: A religious discourse and a human rights discourse, together with medical and legal sub discourses frame the subject of abortion in Uganda, with consequences for who is portrayed as a victim and who is to blame for abortions taking place. It shows the strong presence of the Catholic Church within the medial debate on abortion. The results also demonstrate the absence of medial statements related to abortion made by political stakeholders. Conclusions: The Catholic Church has a strong position within the Ugandan society and their stance on abortion tends to have great influence on the way other actors and their activities are presented within the media, as well as how stakeholders choose to convey their message, or choose not to publicly debate the issue in question at all. To decrease the number of maternal deaths, we highlight the need for a more inclusive and varied debate that problematizes the current situation, especially from a gender perspective.