Global trade, food production and ecosystem support : Making the interactions visible

Modern food production is a complex, globalized system in which what we eat and how it is produced are increasingly disconnected. This thesis examines some of the ways in which global trade has changed the mix of inputs to food and feed, and how this affects food security and our perceptions of sustainability. One useful indicator of the ecological impact of trade in food and feed products is the Appropriated Ecosystem Areas (ArEAs), which estimates the terrestrial and aquatic areas needed to produce all the inputs to particular products. The method is introduced in Paper I and used to calculate and track changes in imported subsidies to Swedish agriculture over the period 1962-1994. In 1994, Swedish consumers needed agricultural areas outside their national borders to satisfy more than a third of their food consumption needs. The method is then applied to Swedish meat production in Paper II to show that the term “Made in Sweden” is often a misnomer. In 1999, almost 80% of manufactured feed for Swedish pigs, cattle and chickens was dependent on imported inputs, mainly from Europe, Southeast Asia and South America. Paper III examines ecosystem subsidies to intensive aquaculture in two nations: shrimp production in Thailand and salmon production in Norway. In both countries, aquaculture was shown to rely increasingly on imported subsidies. The rapid expansion of aquaculture turned these countries from fishmeal net exporters to fishmeal net importers, increasingly using inputs from the Southeastern Pacific Ocean. As the examined agricultural and aquacultural production systems became globalized, levels of dependence on other nations’ ecosystems, the number of external supply sources, and the distance to these sources steadily increased. Dependence on other nations is not problematic, as long as we are able to acknowledge these links and sustainably manage resources both at home and abroad. However, ecosystem subsidies are seldom recognized or made explicit in national policy or economic accounts. Economic systems are generally not designed to receive feedbacks when the status of remote ecosystems changes, much less to respond in an ecologically sensitive manner. Papers IV and V discuss the problem of “masking” of the true environmental costs of production for trade. One of our conclusions is that, while the ArEAs approach is a useful tool for illuminating environmentally-based subsidies in the policy arena, it does not reflect all of the costs. Current agricultural and aquacultural production methods have generated substantial increases in production levels, but if policy continues to support the focus on yield and production increases alone, taking the work of ecosystems for granted, vulnerability can result. Thus, a challenge is to develop a set of complementary tools that can be used in economic accounting at national and international scales that address ecosystem support and performance. We conclude that future resilience in food production systems will require more explicit links between consumers and the work of supporting ecosystems, locally and in other regions of the world, and that food security planning will require active management of the capacity of all involved ecosystems to sustain food production.

Systematics and biogeography of Southeast Asian Senecioneae (Asteraceae): Revision of Cissampelopsis and Gynura and hybridisation in the introduced Crassocephalum

ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Die vorgelegte Dissertation enthält zwei Teile. Der erste beinhaltet eine Einführung in die Flora Südostasiens und die Untersuchungsgruppe Asteraceae-Senecioneae Cass. mit den Gattungen Cissampelopsis (DC.) Miq., Gynura Cass. und Crassocephalum Moench (Kapitel 1). Der zweite Teil besteht aus drei Manuskripten, die auf originalen Forschungsergebnissen basieren (Kapitel 2-4). In Kapitel 2 wird eine Revision der asiatischen Gattung Cissampelopsis vorgelegt. Die folgenden zwei Sektionen mit zehn Arten und zwei Varietäten werden anerkannt: sect. Buimalia C. Jeffrey & Y. L. Chen mit C. buimalia (Buch.-Ham. ex D. Don) C. Jeffrey & Y. L. Chen, C. erythrochaeta C. Jeffrey & Y. L. Chen und C. calcadensis (Ramasw.) C. Jeffrey & Y. L. Chen sowie sect. Cissampelopsis mit C. glandulosa C. Jeffrey & Y. L. Chen, C. walkeri (Arn.) C. Jeffrey & Y. L. Chen mit var. walkeri und var. floccosa Vanijajiva & Kadereit (var. nov.), C. corifolia C. Jeffrey & Y. L. Chen, C. volubilis (Bl.) Miq, C. ansteadii (Tadul. & Jacob) C. Jeffrey & Y. L. Chen, C. spelaeicola (Van.) C. Jeffrey & Y. L. Chen und C. corymbosa (Wall. ex DC.) C. Jeffrey & Y. L. Chen. Schlüssel, Artbeschreibungen, Fotographien von Blütenmerkmalen und Verbreitungskarten werden präsentiert. Kapitel 3 beinhaltet die Revision der paläotropischen Gattung Gynura. Vierundvierzig Arten werden anerkannt, darunter die folgenden drei Neubeschreibungen: G. davisii Vanijajiva & Kadereit, G. siamensis Vanijajiva & Kadereit und G. villosus Vanijajiva & Kadereit. Gynura dissecta (F. G. Davies) Vanijajiva & Kadereit, G. annua (F. G. Davies) Vanijajiva & Kadereit und G. aurantiaca (Bl) DC. subsp. parviflora (F. G. Davies) Vanijajiva & Kadereit sind Neukombinationen. Ein Schlüssel, Artbeschreibungen und Verbreitungskarten werden vorgelegt. In Kapitel 4 wird eine Analyse von Crassocephalum in Asien, einer aus Afrika eingeschleppten Gattung, präsentiert. Diese Untersuchung basiert auf umfangreicher Feldarbeit, Herbarstudien, Analysen der Pollen- und Samenfertilität, Chromosomenzählungen sowie ITS- und trnL-F-Sequenzen. Die Studie ergab, dass Crassocephalum in Asien mit zwei Arten und deren Hybrid vertreten ist. Die zwei Arten sind C. crepidioides (Benth.) S. Moore und C. rubens (Juss. ex Jacq.) S. Moore, wobei letztere einen Neufund für Asien darstellt. Der Hybrid aus diesen beiden Arten resultiert aus einer Kreuzung von C. crepidioides (2n=40) als weiblichem und C. rubens (2n=40) als männlichem Elter.

Einstellungen zur Demokratie in Kambodscha : Niveau und Determinanten der Demokratieunterstützung

Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Frage, wie stark die Unterstützung eines demokratischen politischen Systems in der kambodschanischen Bevölkerung ist und welche Faktoren auf der Mikroebene die Demokratieunterstützung in Kambodscha beeinflussen. Hierfür werden das Unterstützungsmodell von Dieter Fuchs und die Modernisierungstheorie von Seymour Lipset für die Analyse von Einstellungen in einem autoritären politischen System modifiziert und entsprechend angepasste Hypothesen [zum Einfluss der Modernisierungsfaktoren auf die Demokratieunterstützung] formuliert. Nachdem die im Datensatz vorhandenen Einzelindikatoren zu Faktoren verdichtet und Probleme des Demokratieverständnisses und der Item-Nonresponse diskutiert wurden, werden Daten der zweiten Welle der Asian Barometer Survey 2008 analysiert. Die empirischen Ergebnisse zeigen zwar, dass eine substantielle Minderheit das autoritäre Regime des Landes und seine Entscheidungsträger kritisch betrachtet, die Bindung an liberal-demokratische Werte aber eher schwach ausgeprägt ist. Bi- und multivariate Analysen deuten auf einen Einfluss von Faktoren wie Bildung, Einkommen und Wohnort hin und bestätigen somit weitgehend die Modernisierungstheorie, allerdings mit einer bedeutsamen Abweichung: Größere Zufriedenheit mit der eigenen wirtschaftlichen Lage führt zwar zu einer stärkeren Bindung an demokratische Werte, gleichzeitig aber auch zu einer größeren Unterstützung des autoritären Regimes und seiner Entscheidungsträger.

Implementing the Global Plan of Action on workers' health: Components to protect health care workers

Health care workers are at risk for percutaneous injuries and infection with blood born pathogens due to needle stick injuries with contaminated needles. The most common pathogens transmitted are hepatitis B, and C and HIV/AIDS. According to the WHO Global Plan of Action (GPA) a large gap exist between and within countries with regards to the health status of workers and their exposure to occupational risk. Less than 15% of the world's work forces have access to occupational health services despite the availability of effective interventions that can prevent occupational hazards, or protect and promote health in the workplace. The 2006 World Health Report declared that there is a global crisis in the health care work force. 1 in 400 of the world's health care workers work in Sub-Saharan Africa. 1 in 3 work in the U.S or Canada. The shortage of health care workers is worst in Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. These countries have the highest burden of exposure to contaminated sharps. They rarely, if ever monitor the exposure or health impact of occupational ailments and injuries on workers. Many injuries are unreported. Occupational health services in the developing world are virtually non existent. Many health care workers leave their home countries and go to work in other countries where the working conditions, occupational services included, are better. The inability of countries to provide the necessary numbers of health care workers to provide a high level of health coverage is a threat to national and international public health security. Immunizing health care workers against hepatitis B and providing them PEP, PPE, education and safety training is an essential part of increasing and maintaining the numbers of health care workers in the critical shortage areas. ^

World distribution of land cover changes, model in NetCDF format

The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES) for pre-Bronze age demographic, technological and economic change. Using scaling parameters from the History Database of the Global Environment as well as GLUES-simulated population density and subsistence style, the land requirement for growing crops is estimated. The intrusion of cropland into potentially forested areas is translated into carbon loss due to deforestation with the dynamic global vegetation model VECODE. The land demand in important Prehistoric growth areas - converted from mostly forested areas - led to large-scale regional (country size) deforestation of up to 11% of the potential forest. In total, 29 Gt carbon were lost from global forests between 10 000 BC and 2000 BC and were replaced by crops; this value is consistent with other estimates of Prehistoric deforestation. The generation of realistic (agri-)cultural development trajectories at a regional resolution is a major strength of GLUES. Most of the pre-Bronze age deforestation is simulated in a broad farming belt from Central Europe via India to China. Regional carbon loss is, e.g., 5 Gt in Europe and the Mediterranean, 6 Gt on the Indian subcontinent, 18 Gt in East and Southeast Asia, or 2.3 Gt in subsaharan Africa.

Geochemistry and foraminiferal stable isotoe record of sediment core SCS90-36

Changes in the Southeast Asia monsoon winds and surface circulation patterns since the last glaciation are inferred using multiple paleoceanographic indicators including planktic foraminifer faunal abundances, fauna and alkenones sea-surface temperature (SST) estimates, oxygen and carbon isotopes of planktic and benthic foraminifers, and sedimentary fluxes of carbonates and organic carbon obtained from deep-sea core SCS90-36 from the South China Sea (SCS) (17°59.70'N, 111°29.64'E at water depth 2050 m). All these paleoceanographic evidences indicate marked changes in the SCS ocean system over the last glacial toward the Holocene. Planktic foraminiferal faunal SST estimates show stable warm-season SST of 28.6°C, close to the modern value, throughout the glacial-interglacial cycle. In contrast, cold-season SST increases gradually from 23.6°C in the last glacial to a mean value of 26.4°C in the Holocene with a fluctuation of about 3°C during 13-16 ka. SST estimates by UK'37 method reveal less variability and are in average 1-3°C lower than the fauna-derived winter-season SST. These patterns reveal that the seasonality of the SST is not only higher by about 3-4°C in the glacial, but also a function of the winter season SST. Sedimentation rates decrease from the last glacial-deglacial stage to the Holocene due to a reduction in supply of terrigenous components, which led to an increase of carbonate contents. Total organic carbon (TOC) contents of primarily marine sources decrease from the last glacial-deglacial to the Holocene. The last deglaciation is also characterized by high surface productivity as indicated by increased ketones abundances and high mass accumulation rates (MAR) of the TOC and carbonates. The gradient of planktic foraminifer ocygen and carbon isotopes of between surface dwellers and deep dwellers increases significantly toward Termination I and Holocene, and is indiscernibly small in the carbon isotope gradient of between 14 and 24 ka, revealing a deep-mixing condition in surface layers prior to 10 ka. The glacial-interglacial fluctuation of the carbon isotope value of a benthic foraminifer is 0.61%. which is significantly larger than a global mean value. The large carbon isotope fluctuation indicates an amplification of marginal-sea effects which is most likely resulted from an increase in surface productivity in the northern SCS during the last glacial-deglacial stage. The multiple proxies consistently indicate that the last glacial-deglacial stage winter monsoon in the Southeast Asia was probably strengthened in the northern SCS, leading to a development of deep-mixing surface layer conditions and a more efficient nutrient cycling which supports more marine organic carbon production.

An Asian Triangle of Growth and Cluster-to-Cluster Linkages

It is expected that an Asian triangle of growth will be formed in the coming few decades. China, India and ASEAN surround the Asian triangle, which is home to many industrial clusters. Multinational corporations will link these clusters together. Regional integration will help them in this task by lowering the barriers of national borders. This paper explains the necessity of regional integration for cluster-to-cluster linkages in the Asian triangle of growth.

Winner-Take-All Contention of Innovation under Globalization: A Simulation Analysis and East Asia's Empirics

This paper sets out to examine how innovation enhances export competitiveness: The proposition that export volume becomes enhanced as more productivity-enhancing innovation is captured by the exporting economy is the focus of this study. From a Schumpeterian perspective, innovation can be characterized by continuous creation and subsequent diffusion of newer technologies on the basis of the exporters' existing capital stock. Then we highlight the theoretical possibility that concentration of innovative activities in a small group of "winner" economies would lead to larger shares of "winner" economies' exports of innovation-active commodities than those commodities for which technology involved is already mature. The world's export data corroborates this theoretical prediction overall, and a focus upon East Asia has revealed the region's increasing resort to technology-intensive commodity sectors, which has presumably been enabled through attracting technology-bearing inward foreign direct investment. Considering the overall gains from innovation, acceleration of full "cycle" of innovation and imitation might be a desirable option.

Business Cycles of Non-mono-cultural Developing Economies: The Case of ASEAN Countries

Based on analyses of actual data, we reveal that many Asian developing economies own economic structural features of "non-mono-cultural economy" and the "large primary good sector", which have not been discussed in developing economies RBC literature. We also examine the input-output tables to develop a model reflecting actual developing economies' structures. Referring to the analyses, we construct RBC models of ASEAN countries. Based on the model, we find that approximately half of GDP volatility is attributable to domestic productivity shocks, and the remaining half is attributable to price shocks.

Theoretical Models Based on a Flowchart Approach to Industrial Cluster Policy

This article examined the issue of whether or not the currency exchange rate, country risk, and cooperate tax rate affect decisions of multinational firms to invest in industrial clusters. First, if the exchange rate between a multinational company in an industry of diminishing returns to scale and a developing country is appreciated, then production in the developing country should increase. Second, if the investment period becomes longer, the currency exchange rate of a multinational company's country should be revalued more in order for it to further invest in the developing country. Third, if the investment period becomes longer, the developing country's risk should become less. Fourth, compensation for the developing country's high risk can be made by lowering its corporate tax rate.

Outward FDI from and intraregional FDI in ASEAN : trends and drivers

Developing-country transnational corporations (TNCs) are increasing in importance in the global economy. Outward FDI from developing countries is a proxy indicator to measure how much of an important role enterprises of developing countries have played in the world market and how they benefit from globalization where border barriers are reduced. This study finds that ASEAN enterprises have extended their business activities within ASEAN, East Asia, and then to the world, as both regional and global players.