846 resultados para C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications


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Between January 2007 and December 2010, the abundance of medium-sized mammals was studied, with special focus on the Molina's hog-nosed skunk, Conepatus chinga (Molina, 1782), at four locations in southern Brazil. In this study, transect line methodology was used to obtain data for Distance Analyses. Transects were traveled by car at night, searching with spotlights along the edges of secondary roads in agricultural landscapes. Along 1,811 km, we obtained 620 observations of 20 mammal species. The most common species was the exotic European hare, Lepus europaeus (Pallas, 1778); the highest abundance estimated for South America was observed in one of the study areas, where its density was estimated as 32 individuals/km². Carnivores were the most commonly recorded mammals, represented by 10 species and comprising 51% of all observations. Molina's hog-nosed skunk occurred in all study areas, but occurred in sufficient numbers to obtain density estimates in only two of the areas. We estimated 1.4 to 3.8 individuals/km², in the first density estimate made by the transect method for a member of Conepatus in the Neotropics. These values are similar to those estimated for North American species of Mephitidae. In Brazil, C. chinga is apparently more abundant in the Pampa biome than in the grasslands of the Atlantic Forest. For two other carnivores, Lycalopex gymnocercus (Fisher, 1814) and Cerdocyon thous (Linnaeus, 1766), we estimated preliminary densities that were similar to those previously cited for different regions.

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Introducing bounded rationality in a standard consumption-based asset pricing model with time separable preferences strongly improves empirical performance. Learning causes momentum and mean reversion of returns and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium, as in the habit model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), but for lower risk aversion. This is obtained, even though our learning scheme introduces just one free parameter and we only consider learning schemes that imply small deviations from full rationality. The findings are robust to the learning rule used and other model features. What is key is that agents forecast future stock prices using past information on prices.

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In addition to previous records of Biomphalaria glabrata in the Dominican Republic, the southern central communities of Haina Arriba and Boca Chica, in the National District, are reported as new localities for that species; other species collected were Biomphalaria obstructa, B. helophila, Drepanotrema lucidum and Lymnaea viatrix. Biomphalaria straminea, a potential vector of Schistosoma mansoni, was found for the first time in the country, in the River Iguamo, just outside of the community of San Pedro de Macorís.

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One hundred and fourteen specimens of eleven different species of freshwater fishes from the Guaiba estuary, were examined for digenetic flukes. Saccocoelioides godoyi n.sp. proposed herein, is closest to S. magniovatus and to S. szidati; S. magniovatus is much smaller with comparably larger eggs and S. szidati has larger hermaphroditic sac and considerably larger testis. Creptotrema creptotrema is referred to a new host; Acanthostomum gnerii, Crepidostomum platense, Eocreadium intermedium (immature form), Parspina argentinensis and Zonocotyle bicaecata are reported. This paper confirms the similatary between the parasites of freshwater fishes from Argentina and Brazil. Measurements and original figures of all species are given.

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The purpose of this paper is to review the scientific literature from August 2007 to July 2010. The review is focused on more than 420 published papers. The review will not cover information coming from international meetings available only in abstract form. Fingermarks constitute an important chapter with coverage of the identification process as well as detection techniques on various surfaces. We note that the research has been very dense both at exploring and understanding current detection methods as well as bringing groundbreaking techniques to increase the number of marks detected from various objects. The recent report from the US National Research Council (NRC) is a milestone that has promoted a critical discussion on the state of forensic science and its associated research. We can expect a surge of interest in research in relation to cognitive aspect of mark and print comparison, establishment of relevant forensic error rates and statistical modelling of the selectivity of marks' attributes. Other biometric means of forensic identification such as footmarks or earmarks are also covered in the report. Compared to previous years, we noted a decrease in the number of submission in these areas. No doubt that the NRC report has set the seed for further investigation of these fields as well.