980 resultados para Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)


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Mango is an important horticultural fruit crop and breeding is a key strategy to improve ongoing sustainability. Knowledge of breeding values of potential parents is important for maximising progress from breeding. This study successfully employed a mixed linear model methods incorporating a pedigree to predict breeding values for average fruit weight from highly unbalanced data for genotypes planted over three field trials and assessed over several harvest seasons. Average fruit weight was found to be under strong additive genetic control. There was high correlation between hybrids propagated as seedlings and hybrids propagated as scions grafted onto rootstocks. Estimates of additive genetic correlation among trials ranged from 0.69 to 0.88 with correlations among harvest seasons within trials greater than 0.96. These results suggest that progress from selection for broad adaptation can be achieved, particularly as no repeatable environmental factor that could be used to predict G x E could be identified. Predicted breeding values for 35 known cultivars are presented for use in ongoing breeding programs.

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The Finite Element Method (FEM) has made a number of otherwise intractable problems solvable. An important aspect for achieving an economical and accurate solution through FEM is matching the formulation and the computational organisation to the problem. This was realised forcefully in the present case of the solution of a class of moving contact boundary value problems of fastener joints. This paper deals with the problem of changing contact at the pin-hole interface of a fastener joint. Due to moving contact, the stresses and displacements are nonlinear with load. This would, in general, need an interactive-incremental approach for solution. However, by posing the problem in an inverse way, a solution is sought for obtaining loads to suit given contact configuration. Numerical results are given for typical isotropic and composite plates with rigid pins. Two cases of loading are considered: (i) load applied only at the edges of the plate and (ii) load applied at the pin and reacted at a part of the edge of the plate. Load-contact relationships, compliance and stress-patterns are investigated. This paper clearly demonstrates the simplification achieved by a suitable formulation of the problem. The results are of significance to the design and analysis of fastener joints.

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‘Demonstration reaches’ are sections of river where multiple threats to native fish are addressed through river rehabilitation and strong community participation. They are an important way of promoting the key driving actions of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority's Native Fish Strategy (NFS) by using on-ground community-driven rehabilitation. Measuring rehabilitation success against well-defined targets and using this information to adaptively mange activities is fundamental to the demonstration reach philosophy. Seven years on from the establishment of the first demonstration reach, there are now seven throughout the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), all in differing states of maturation and but all applying a standardised framework for monitoring native fish outcomes. In this study, we reflect on the role that demonstration reaches have played within the NFS, synthesise some key findings from 32 monitoring and evaluation outputs, and highlight some of the successes and barriers to success. We make recommendations as to how to strengthen the demonstration reach model to ensure it remains a relevant approach for fish habitat rehabilitation beyond the NFS and MDB.

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This thesis studies the informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance (EUA) market. In an efficient market, the market price is unpredictable and profits above average are impossible in the long run. The main research problem is does the EUA price follow a random walk. The method is an econometric analysis of the price series, which includes an autocorrelation coefficient test and a variance ratio test. The results reveal that the price series is autocorrelated and therefore a nonrandom walk. In order to find out the extent of predictability, the price series is modelled with an autoregressive model. The conclusion is that the EUA price is autocorrelated only to a small degree and that the predictability cannot be used to make extra profits. The EUA market is therefore considered informationally efficient, although the price series does not fulfill the requirements of a random walk. A market review supports the conclusion, but it is clear that the maturing of the market is still in process.

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Eva Menkin, June 2003

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to approach the debate surrounding the role of business plans in enterprise/entrepreneurship education from a different perspective; that of the student. The paper argues that much of the consternation within this stubborn debate derives from a lack of appreciation of the context actually occurring in the lives of our students. The paper aims to explore several arguments directly related to these contexts. Design/methodology/approach The approach is to build around a combining of cycles of reflective practice via the authors' iterative consultation with each other. The paper seeks to explore the world of the student via an enfolding of the literature, but ultimately we do not claim to have hidden our personal biases. Findings It is important to separate enterprise education (EE) from entrepreneurship education when discussing the role of the business plan. While the business plan has a place in the latter, it makes little sense for it to be a focal learning activity in the former. In addition, we see this outcome as a positive outcome for our field with little point in continuing on with what has become a fairly pointless debate. Practical implications: The paper concludes that once EE is viewed as being distinctly different from entrepreneurship education it is free to be considered with more precision what learning needs exist. Focusing on learning needs changes the direction of the discussion, with the business plan only up for discussion if it contributes a learning activity related to pre-determined learning outcomes. Originality/value The paper offers a constructive way forward from a debate that has been beset with extreme vested interests for too long.

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The advent of cloud technology involving low subscription overheads cost has provided small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with the opportunity to adopt new cloud-based corporate-wide systems (i.e., cloud ERP). This technology, operating through subscription-based services, has now provided SMEs with a complete range of IT applications that were once restricted to larger organisations. As anecdotal evidences suggest, SMEs are increasingly adopting cloud-based ERP software. The selection of an ERP is a complex process involving multiple stages and stakeholders, suggesting the importance of closer examination of cloud ERP adoption in SMEs. Yet, prior studies have predominantly treated technology adoption as a single activity and largely ignored the issue of ERP adoption in SMEs. Understanding of the process nature of the adoption and the factors that are important in each stage of the adoption potentially may result in guiding SMEs to make well-informed decisions throughout the ERP selection process. Thus, our study proposes that the adoption of cloud ERP should be examined as a multi-stage process. Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and Ettlie’s adoption stages, as well as employing data gathered from 162 owners of SMEs, our findings show that the factors that influence the intention to adopt cloud ERP vary significantly across adoptive stages.

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ZLI-1167 is a ternary mixture of nematic liquid crystals with negative diamagnetic anisotropy. It has, therefore, been used as a solvent where the spinning of the samples around the vertical axis in the conventional electromagnets without destroying the orientation of the dissolved molecules is possible in NMR experiments. This results in sharp lines with widths up to 1 Hz in the spectra.1,2 In an NMR system using a superconducting magnet (where the magnetic field direction is along the axis of spinning of the sample), it is possible to use even the nematic liquid crystals with positive diamagnetic anisotropy such as N-(p'-methoxybenzylidene)-p-n-butylaniline (MBBA) or N-(p'-ethoxybenzylidene)-p-n-butylaniline (EBBA) to obtain the spectra with sample spinning with equally sharp lines.3 The orientational behaviour of the dissolved molecules as a function of relative concentrations of the two solvents is investigated and the results are reported in the present communication.

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Singular surface theory and ray theory are used to study the propagation of a weak discontinuity in an arbitrarily moving gas within the framework of special relativity. A differential equation is obtained describing the variation of the strength of the discontinuity along rays.

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Abstract is not available.

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The angular-momentum flux from an inspiralling binary system of compact objects moving in quasi-elliptical orbits is computed at the third post-Newtonian (3PN) order using the multipolar post-Minkowskian wave generation formalism. The 3PN angular-momentum flux involves the instantaneous, tail, and tail-of-tails contributions as for the 3PN energy flux, and in addition a contribution due to nonlinear memory. We average the angular-momentum flux over the binary's orbit using the 3PN quasi-Keplerian representation of elliptical orbits. The averaged angular-momentum flux provides the final input needed for gravitational-wave phasing of binaries moving in quasi-elliptical orbits. We obtain the evolution of orbital elements under 3PN gravitational radiation reaction in the quasi-elliptic case. For small eccentricities, we give simpler limiting expressions relevant for phasing up to order e(2). This work is important for the construction of templates for quasi-eccentric binaries, and for the comparison of post-Newtonian results with the numerical relativity simulations of the plunge and merger of eccentric binaries.

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Pricing is an effective tool to control congestion and achieve quality of service (QoS) provisioning for multiple differentiated levels of service. In this paper, we consider the problem of pricing for congestion control in the case of a network of nodes under a single service class and multiple queues, and present a multi-layered pricing scheme. We propose an algorithm for finding the optimal state dependent price levels for individual queues, at each node. The pricing policy used depends on a weighted average queue length at each node. This helps in reducing frequent price variations and is in the spirit of the random early detection (RED) mechanism used in TCP/IP networks. We observe in our numerical results a considerable improvement in performance using our scheme over that of a recently proposed related scheme in terms of both throughput and delay performance. In particular, our approach exhibits a throughput improvement in the range of 34 to 69 percent in all cases studied (over all routes) over the above scheme.

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We examine the moving and housing preferences of middle-aged and older in Finland, a country where population composition and movement through the life course are changing. A logistic regression reveals that middle-aged, moderate income residents, renters, those who have lived in their houses only a short time, and residents who are generally dissatisfied are most likely to consider moving. Downsizing appeals to residents with lower incomes who live alone, and who have been in their current houses longer. All potential movers agree on the importance of transportation access and a neighborhood grocery store; however, those preferring to downsize are also interested in house and neighborhood design as well as services that will allow aging in place. Income limitations may create affordability problems for some potential movers.

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Visual tracking has been a challenging problem in computer vision over the decades. The applications of Visual Tracking are far-reaching, ranging from surveillance and monitoring to smart rooms. Mean-shift (MS) tracker, which gained more attention recently, is known for tracking objects in a cluttered environment and its low computational complexity. The major problem encountered in histogram-based MS is its inability to track rapidly moving objects. In order to track fast moving objects, we propose a new robust mean-shift tracker that uses both spatial similarity measure and color histogram-based similarity measure. The inability of MS tracker to handle large displacements is circumvented by the spatial similarity-based tracking module, which lacks robustness to object's appearance change. The performance of the proposed tracker is better than the individual trackers for tracking fast-moving objects with better accuracy.