On the observability of turbulent transport rates by Argo: supporting evidence from an inversion experiment

Although estimation of turbulent transport parameters using inverse methods is not new, there is little evaluation of the method in the literature. Here, it is shown that extended observation of the broad scale hydrography by Argo provides a path to improved estimates of regional turbulent transport rates. Results from a 20 year ocean state estimate produced with the ECCO v4 non-linear inverse modeling framework provide supporting evidence. Turbulent transport parameter maps are estimated under the constraints of fitting the extensive collection of Argo profiles collected through 2011. The adjusted parameters dramatically reduce misfits to in situ profiles as compared with earlier ECCO solutions. They also yield a clear reduction in the model drift away from observations over multi-century long simulations, both for assimilated variables (temperature and salinity) and independent variables (bio-geochemical tracers). Despite the minimal constraints imposed specifically on the estimated parameters, their geography is physically plausible and exhibits close connections with the upper ocean ocean stratification as observed by Argo. The estimated parameter adjustments furthermore have first order impacts on upper-ocean stratification and mixed layer depths over 20 years. These results identify the constraint of fitting Argo profiles as an effective observational basis for regional turbulent transport rates. Uncertainties and further improvements of the method are discussed.

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation: 1. Comparison over uniform surface conditions

As part of an international intercomparison project, a set of single column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are run under the weak temperature gradient (WTG) method and the damped gravity wave (DGW) method. For each model, the implementation of the WTG or DGW method involves a simulated column which is coupled to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. The simulated column has the same surface conditions as the reference state and is initialized with profiles from the reference state. We performed systematic comparison of the behavior of different models under a consistent implementation of the WTG method and the DGW method and systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in models with different physics and numerics. CRMs and SCMs produce a variety of behaviors under both WTG and DGW methods. Some of the models reproduce the reference state while others sustain a large-scale circulation which results in either substantially lower or higher precipitation compared to the value of the reference state. CRMs show a fairly linear relationship between precipitation and circulation strength. SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. Some SCMs under the WTG method produce zero precipitation. Within an individual SCM, a DGW simulation and a corresponding WTG simulation can produce different signed circulation. When initialized with a dry troposphere, DGW simulations always result in a precipitating equilibrium state. The greatest sensitivities to the initial moisture conditions occur for multiple stable equilibria in some WTG simulations, corresponding to either a dry equilibrium state when initialized as dry or a precipitating equilibrium state when initialized as moist. Multiple equilibria are seen in more WTG simulations for higher SST. In some models, the existence of multiple equilibria is sensitive to some parameters in the WTG calculations.

Impact of cyclones on sea ice in the Fram Strait: numerical simulations and observations

The sea ice export from the Arctic is of global importance due to its fresh water which influences the oceanic stratification and, thus, the global thermohaline circulation. This study deals with the effect of cyclones on sea ice and sea ice transport in particular on the basis of observations from two field experiments FRAMZY 1999 and FRAMZY 2002 in April 1999 and March 2002 as well as on the basis of simulations with a numerical sea ice model. The simulations realised by a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model are forced with 6-hourly atmospheric ECMWF- analyses (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and 6-hourly oceanic data of a MPI-OM-simulation (Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model). Comparing the observed and simulated variability of the sea ice drift and of the position of the ice edge shows that the chosen configuration of the model is appropriate for the performed studies. The seven observed cyclones change the position of the ice edge up to 100 km and cause an extensive decrease of sea ice coverage by 2 % up to more than 10 %. The decrease is only simulated by the model if the ocean current is strongly divergent in the centre of the cyclone. The impact is remarkable of the ocean current on divergence and shear deformation of the ice drift. As shown by sensitivity studies the ocean current at a depth of 6 m – the sea ice model is forced with – is mainly responsible for the ascertained differences between simulation and observation. The simulated sea ice transport shows a strong variability on a time scale from hours to days. Local minima occur in the time series of the ice transport during periods with Fram Strait cyclones. These minima are not caused by the local effect of the cyclone’s wind field, but mainly by the large-scale pattern of surface pressure. A displacement of the areas of strongest cyclone activity in the Nordic Seas would considerably influence the ice transport.

A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES

Despite the importance of dust aerosol in the Earth system, state-of-the-art models show a large variety for North African dust emission. This study presents a systematic evaluation of dust emitting-winds in 30 years of the historical model simulation with the UK Met Office Earth-system model HadGEM2-ES for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Isolating the effect of winds on dust emission and using an automated detection for nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs) allow an in-depth evaluation of the model performance for dust emission from a meteorological perspective. The findings highlight that NLLJs are a key driver for dust emission in HadGEM2-ES in terms of occurrence frequency and strength. The annually and spatially averaged occurrence frequency of NLLJs is similar in HadGEM2-ES and ERA-Interim from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Compared to ERA-Interim, a stronger pressure ridge over northern Africa in winter and the southward displaced heat low in summer result in differences in location and strength of NLLJs. Particularly the larger geostrophic winds associated with the stronger ridge have a strengthening effect on NLLJs over parts of West Africa in winter. Stronger NLLJs in summer may rather result from an artificially increased mixing coefficient under stable stratification that is weaker in HadGEM2-ES. NLLJs in the Bodélé Depression are affected by stronger synoptic-scale pressure gradients in HadGEM2-ES. Wintertime geostrophic winds can even be so strong that the associated vertical wind shear prevents the formation of NLLJs. These results call for further model improvements in the synoptic-scale dynamics and the physical parametrization of the nocturnal stable boundary layer to better represent dust-emitting processes in the atmospheric model. The new approach could be used for identifying systematic behavior in other models with respect to meteorological processes for dust emission. This would help to improve dust emission simulations and contribute to decreasing the currently large uncertainty in climate change projections with respect to dust aerosol.

A numerical investigation of the atmosphere-ocean thermal contrast over the coastal upwelling region of Cabo Frio, Brazil

An one-dimensional atmospheric second order closure model, coupled to an oceanic mixed layer model, is used to investigate the short term variation of the atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers in the coastal upwelling area of Cabo Frio, Brazil (23 degrees S, 42 degrees 08`W). The numerical simulations were carried out to evaluate the impact caused by the thermal contrast between atmosphere and ocean on the vertical extent and other properties of both atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers. The numerical simulations were designed taking as reference the observations carried out during the passage of a cold front that disrupted the upwelling regime in Cabo Frio in July of 1992. The simulations indicated that in 10 hours the mechanical mixing, sustained by a constant background flow of 10 in s(-1), increases the atmospheric boundary layer in 214 in when the atmosphere is initially 2 K warmer than the ocean (positive thermal contrast observed during upwelling regime). For an atmosphere initially -2 K colder than the ocean (negative thermal contrast observed during passage of the cold front), the incipient thermal convection intensifies the mechanical mixing increasing the vertical extent of the atmospheric boundary layer in 360 in. The vertical evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer is consistent with the observations carried out in Cabo Frio during upwelling condition. When the upwelling is disrupted, the discrepancy between the simulated and observed atmospheric boundary layer heights in Cabo Frio during July of 1992 increases considerably. During the period of 10 hours, the simulated oceanic mixed layer deepens 2 in and 5.4 in for positive and negative thermal contrasts of 2 K and -2 K, respectively. In the latter case, the larger vertical extent of the oceanic mixed layer is due to the presence of thermal convection in the atmospheric boundary layer, which in turn is associated to the absence of upwelling caused by the passage of cold fronts in Cabo Frio.

The spectrum of an open vertex model based on the U(q)[SU(2)] algebra at roots of unity

We study the exact solution of an N-state vertex model based on the representation of the U(q)[SU(2)] algebra at roots of unity with diagonal open boundaries. We find that the respective reflection equation provides us one general class of diagonal K-matrices having one free-parameter. We determine the eigenvalues of the double-row transfer matrix and the respective Bethe ansatz equation within the algebraic Bethe ansatz framework. The structure of the Bethe ansatz equation combine a pseudomomenta function depending on a free-parameter with scattering phase-shifts that are fixed by the roots of unity and boundary variables. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is interest in studying latent variables. These latent variables are directly considered in the Item Response Models (IRM) and they are usually called latent traits. A usual assumption for parameter estimation of the IRM, considering one group of examinees, is to assume that the latent traits are random variables which follow a standard normal distribution. However, many works suggest that this assumption does not apply in many cases. Furthermore, when this assumption does not hold, the parameter estimates tend to be biased and misleading inference can be obtained. Therefore, it is important to model the distribution of the latent traits properly. In this paper we present an alternative latent traits modeling based on the so-called skew-normal distribution; see Genton (2004). We used the centred parameterization, which was proposed by Azzalini (1985). This approach ensures the model identifiability as pointed out by Azevedo et al. (2009b). Also, a Metropolis Hastings within Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm was built for parameter estimation by using an augmented data approach. A simulation study was performed in order to assess the parameter recovery in the proposed model and the estimation method, and the effect of the asymmetry level of the latent traits distribution on the parameter estimation. Also, a comparison of our approach with other estimation methods (which consider the assumption of symmetric normality for the latent traits distribution) was considered. The results indicated that our proposed algorithm recovers properly all parameters. Specifically, the greater the asymmetry level, the better the performance of our approach compared with other approaches, mainly in the presence of small sample sizes (number of examinees). Furthermore, we analyzed a real data set which presents indication of asymmetry concerning the latent traits distribution. The results obtained by using our approach confirmed the presence of strong negative asymmetry of the latent traits distribution. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the skew-normal calibration model

In this article, we present the EM-algorithm for performing maximum likelihood estimation of an asymmetric linear calibration model with the assumption of skew-normally distributed error. A simulation study is conducted for evaluating the performance of the calibration estimator with interpolation and extrapolation situations. As one application in a real data set, we fitted the model studied in a dimensional measurement method used for calculating the testicular volume through a caliper and its calibration by using ultrasonography as the standard method. By applying this methodology, we do not need to transform the variables to have symmetrical errors. Another interesting aspect of the approach is that the developed transformation to make the information matrix nonsingular, when the skewness parameter is near zero, leaves the parameter of interest unchanged. Model fitting is implemented and the best choice between the usual calibration model and the model proposed in this article was evaluated by developing the Akaike information criterion, Schwarz`s Bayesian information criterion and Hannan-Quinn criterion.

Tayloring Brazil: a system dynamics model for monetary policy feedback

The thesis introduces a system dynamics Taylor rule model of new Keynesian nature for monetary policy feedback in Brazil. The nonlinear Taylor rule for interest rate changes con-siders gaps and dynamics of GDP growth and inflation. The model closely tracks the 2004 to 2011 business cycle and outlines the endogenous feedback between the real interest rate, GDP growth and inflation. The model identifies a high degree of endogenous feedback for monetary policy and inflation, while GDP growth remains highly exposed to exogenous eco-nomic conditions. The results also show that the majority of the monetary policy moves during the sample period was related to GDP growth, despite higher coefficients of inflation parameters in the Taylor rule. This observation challenges the intuition that inflation target-ing leads to a dominance of monetary policy moves with respect to inflation. Furthermore, the results suggest that backward looking price-setting with respect to GDP growth has been the dominant driver of inflation. Moreover, simulation exercises highlight the effects of the new BCB strategy initiated in August 2011 and also consider recession and inflation avoid-ance versions of the Taylor rule. In methodological terms, the Taylor rule model highlights the advantages of system dynamics with respect to nonlinear policies and to the stock-and-flow approach. In total, the strong historical fit and some counterintuitive observations of the Taylor rule model call for an application of the model to other economies.

Extension of the Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model predictions at high densities and temperatures using an implicit regularization scheme

Traditional cutoff regularization schemes of the Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model limit the applicability of the model to energy-momentum scales much below the value of the regularizing cutoff. In particular, the model cannot be used to study quark matter with Fermi momenta larger than the cutoff. In the present work, an extension of the model to high temperatures and densities recently proposed by Casalbuoni, Gatto, Nardulli, and Ruggieri is used in connection with an implicit regularization scheme. This is done by making use of scaling relations of the divergent one-loop integrals that relate these integrals at different energy-momentum scales. Fixing the pion decay constant at the chiral symmetry breaking scale in the vacuum, the scaling relations predict a running coupling constant that decreases as the regularization scale increases, implementing in a schematic way the property of asymptotic freedom of quantum chromodynamics. If the regularization scale is allowed to increase with density and temperature, the coupling will decrease with density and temperature, extending in this way the applicability of the model to high densities and temperatures. These results are obtained without specifying an explicit regularization. As an illustration of the formalism, numerical results are obtained for the finite density and finite temperature quark condensate and applied to the problem of color superconductivity at high quark densities and finite temperature.

An application of a modified constructive heuristic algorithm to transmission expansion planning

Transmission expansion planning (TEP) is a non-convex optimization problem that can be solved via different heuristic algorithms. A variety of classical as well as heuristic algorithms in literature are addressed to solve TEP problem. In this paper a modified constructive heuristic algorithm (CHA) is proposed for solving such a crucial problem. Most of research papers handle TEP problem by linearization of the non-linear mathematical model while in this research TEP problem is solved via CHA using non-linear model. The proposed methodology is based upon Garver's algorithm capable of applying to a DC model. Simulation studies and tests results on the well known transmission network such as: Garver and IEEE 24-bus systems are carried out to show the significant performance as well as the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. © 2011 IEEE.

Parecoxib reduces renal injury in an ischemia/reperfusion model in rats

To evaluate the effect of parecoxib (an NSAID) on renal function by measuring plasma NGAL (serum neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin) levels in an induced-ischemia rat model. METHODS: Forty male Wistar rats were randomly assigned to one of four groups: Ischemia (I), Ischemia/parecoxib (IP), No-ischemia (NI), and No-ischemia/parecoxib (NIP). Body weight, mean arterial pressure, heart rate, body temperature, NGAL levels, and renal histology were compared across groups. RESULTS: The Ischemia (I) group, which did not receive parecoxib, showed the highest NGAL levels (p=0.001), while the IP group, which received the medication, had NGAL levels similar to those of the non-ischemic (NI and NIP) groups. CONCLUSION: Parecoxib resulted in renal protection in this experimental model.

Melatonin attenuates the TLR4-mediated inflammatory response through MyD88-and TRIF-dependent signaling pathways in an in vivo model of ovarian cancer

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Impacts of interruption of the Agulhas leakage on the tropical Atlantic in coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations

In this paper we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to investigate the impact of the interruption of Agulhas leakage of Indian ocean water on the tropical Atlantic, a region where strong coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions occur. The effect of a shut down of leakage of Indian ocean water is isolated from the effect of a collapse of the MOC. In our experiments, the ocean model is forced with boundary conditions in the southeastern corner of the domain that correspond to no interocean exchange of Indian ocean water into the Atlantic. The southern boundary condition is taken from the Levitus data and ensures an MOC in the Atlantic. Within this configuration, instead of warm and salty Indian ocean water temperature (cold) and salinity (fresh) anomalies of southern ocean origin propagate into the South Atlantic and eventually reach the equatorial region, mainly in the thermocline. This set up mimics the closure of the ""warm water path"" in favor of the ""cold water path"". As part of the atmospheric response, there is a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The changes in trade winds lead to reduced Ekman pumping in the equatorial region. This leads to a freshening and warming of the surface waters along the equator. Especially in the Cold Tongue region, the cold and fresh subsurface anomalies do not reach the surface due to the reduced upwelling. The anomaly signals are transported by the equatorial undercurrent and spread away from the equator within the thermocline. Part of the anomaly eventually reaches the Tropical North Atlantic, where it affects the Guinea Dome. Surprisingly, the main effect at the surface is small on the equator and relatively large at the Guinea Dome. In the atmosphere, the northward shift of the ITCZ is associated with a band of negative precipitation anomalies and higher salinities over the Tropical South Atlantic. An important implication of these results is that the modified water characteristics due to a shut down of the Agulhas leakage remain largely unaffected when crossing the equatorial Atlantic and therefore can affect the deepwater formation in the North Atlantic. This supports the hypothesis that the Agulhas leakage is an important source region for climate change and decadal variability of the Atlantic.

Validating NCAR-CCSM last glacial maximum sea surface temperature in the tropical and South Atlantic with proxy-data

Last Glacial Maximum simulated sea surface temperature from the Paleo-Climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Coupled Climate Model (NCAR-CCSM) are compared with available reconstructions and data-based products in the tropical and south Atlantic region. Model results are compared to data proxies based on the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean surface product (MARGO). Results show that the model sea surface temperature is not consistent with the proxy-data in all of the region of interest. Discrepancies are found in the eastern, equatorial and in the high-latitude South Atlantic. The model overestimates the cooling in the southern South Atlantic (near 50 degrees S) shown by the proxy-data. Near the equator, model and proxies are in better agreement. In the eastern part of the equatorial basin the model underestimates the cooling shown by all proxies. A northward shift in the position of the subtropical convergence zone in the simulation suggests a compression or/and an equatorward shift of the subtropical gyre at the surface, consistent with what is observed in the proxy reconstruction. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved