Flexible information acquisition and optimal Tobin tax in tractable dynamic global games

My dissertation focuses on dynamic aspects of coordination processes such as reversibility of early actions, option to delay decisions, and learning of the environment from the observation of other people’s actions. This study proposes the use of tractable dynamic global games where players privately and passively learn about their actions’ true payoffs and are able to adjust early investment decisions to the arrival of new information to investigate the consequences of the presence of liquidity shocks to the performance of a Tobin tax as a policy intended to foster coordination success (chapter 1), and the adequacy of the use of a Tobin tax in order to reduce an economy’s vulnerability to sudden stops (chapter 2). Then, it analyzes players’ incentive to acquire costly information in a sequential decision setting (chapter 3). In chapter 1, a continuum of foreign agents decide whether to enter or not in an investment project. A fraction λ of them are hit by liquidity restrictions in a second period and are forced to withdraw early investment or precluded from investing in the interim period, depending on the actions they chose in the first period. Players not affected by the liquidity shock are able to revise early decisions. Coordination success is increasing in the aggregate investment and decreasing in the aggregate volume of capital exit. Without liquidity shocks, aggregate investment is (in a pivotal contingency) invariant to frictions like a tax on short term capitals. In this case, a Tobin tax always increases success incidence. In the presence of liquidity shocks, this invariance result no longer holds in equilibrium. A Tobin tax becomes harmful to aggregate investment, which may reduces success incidence if the economy does not benefit enough from avoiding capital reversals. It is shown that the Tobin tax that maximizes the ex-ante probability of successfully coordinated investment is decreasing in the liquidity shock. Chapter 2 studies the effects of a Tobin tax in the same setting of the global game model proposed in chapter 1, with the exception that the liquidity shock is considered stochastic, i.e, there is also aggregate uncertainty about the extension of the liquidity restrictions. It identifies conditions under which, in the unique equilibrium of the model with low probability of liquidity shocks but large dry-ups, a Tobin tax is welfare improving, helping agents to coordinate on the good outcome. The model provides a rationale for a Tobin tax on economies that are prone to sudden stops. The optimal Tobin tax tends to be larger when capital reversals are more harmful and when the fraction of agents hit by liquidity shocks is smaller. Chapter 3 focuses on information acquisition in a sequential decision game with payoff complementar- ity and information externality. When information is cheap relatively to players’ incentive to coordinate actions, only the first player chooses to process information; the second player learns about the true payoff distribution from the observation of the first player’s decision and follows her action. Miscoordination requires that both players privately precess information, which tends to happen when it is expensive and the prior knowledge about the distribution of the payoffs has a large variance.

GRAMMAR and COMMUNICATION IN PORTUGUESE AS A FOREIGN LANGUAGE A Study in the Context of Teletandem Interactions

This paper presents a study about the role of grammar in on-line interactions conducted in Portuguese and in English, between Brazilian and English-speaking interactants, with the aim of teaching Portuguese as a foreign language (PFL). The interactions occurred by means of chat and the MSN Messenger, and generated audio and video data for language analysis. Grammar is dealt with from two perspectives, an inductive and a deductive approach, so as to investigate the relevance of systematization of grammar rules in the process of learning PFL in teletandem interactions.

Astrocytes and human cognition: Modeling information integration and modulation of neuronal activity

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Information society and public ICT policies in the Caribbean: a review of advances and challenges, policy instruments and country experiences

Includes bibliography

Alcohol Impairs Predation Risk Response and Communication in Zebrafish

The effects of ethanol exposure on Danio rerio have been studied from the perspectives of developmental biology and behavior. However, little is known about the effects of ethanol on the prey-predator relationship and chemical communication of predation risk. Here, we showed that visual contact with a predator triggers stress axis activation in zebrafish. We also observed a typical stress response in zebrafish receiving water from these conspecifics, indicating that these fish chemically communicate predation risk. Our work is the first to demonstrate how alcohol effects this prey-predator interaction. We showed for the first time that alcohol exposure completely blocks stress axis activation in both fish seeing the predator and in fish that come in indirect contact with a predator by receiving water from these conspecifics. Together with other research results and with the translational relevance of this fish species, our data points to zebrafish as a promising animal model to study human alcoholism. © 2013 Oliveira et al.

Programa de educação continuada – Informática Educacional na Diretoria de Ensino, região de Presidente Prudente: concepção do modelo de formação

Pós-graduação em Educação - FCT

Information Acceptance and ICT Resistance: Promoting the Role of Information in Rural Community Development

Rural community development is a major issue for developing countries. Much attention has been given Information and Communication Technology (ICT) projects to connect rural communities with the global network. However, ICT resistance is a deterring factor in addressing the digital divide in developing countries. It is postulated that reversing the resistance to to ICT can be strategizedthrough "information acceptance." ICT can be accepted by rural communities by creating demand for information. The paper calls for the refocusing on the role of information in rural community development and ICT as a tool for change agent. Initiatives for rural community development must emphasize the importance of information in rural communities.

Mutual Information Rate and Bounds for It

The amount of information exchanged per unit of time between two nodes in a dynamical network or between two data sets is a powerful concept for analysing complex systems. This quantity, known as the mutual information rate (MIR), is calculated from the mutual information, which is rigorously defined only for random systems. Moreover, the definition of mutual information is based on probabilities of significant events. This work offers a simple alternative way to calculate the MIR in dynamical (deterministic) networks or between two time series (not fully deterministic), and to calculate its upper and lower bounds without having to calculate probabilities, but rather in terms of well known and well defined quantities in dynamical systems. As possible applications of our bounds, we study the relationship between synchronisation and the exchange of information in a system of two coupled maps and in experimental networks of coupled oscillators.

Rural development and communication: a community media project in Uttar Pradesh (India)

Loaded with 16% of the world’s population, India is a challenged country. More than a third of its citizens live below the poverty line - on less than a dollar a day. These people have no proper electricity, no proper drinking water supply, no proper sanitary facilities and well over 40% are illiterates. More than 65% live in rural areas and 60% earn their livelihood from agriculture. Only a meagre 3.63% have access to telephone and less than 1% have access to a computer. Therefore, providing access to timely information on agriculture, weather, social, health care, employment, fishing, is of utmost importance to improve the conditions of rural poor. After some introductive chapters, whose function is to provide a comprehensive framework – both theoretical and practical – of the current rural development policies and of the media situation in India and Uttar Pradesh, my dissertation presents the findings of the pilot project entitled “Enhancing development support to rural masses through community media activity”, launched in 2005 by the Department of Mass Communication and Journalism of the Faculty of Arts of the University of Lucknow (U.P.) and by the local NGO Bharosa. The project scope was to involve rural people and farmers from two villages of the district of Lucknow (namely Kumhrava and Barhi Gaghi) in a three-year participatory community media project, based on the creation, implementation and use of a rural community newspaper and a rural community internet centre. Community media projects like this one have been rarely carried out in India because the country has no proper community media tradition: therefore the development of the project has been a challenge for the all stakeholders involved.

MULTIPLE DISEASES IN CARRIER PROBABILITY ESTIMATION: ACCOUNTING FOR SURVIVING ALL CANCERS OTHER THAN BREAST AND OVARY IN BRCAPRO

Mendelian models can predict who carries an inherited deleterious mutation of known disease genes based on family history. For example, the BRCAPRO model is commonly used to identify families who carry mutations of BRCA1 and BRCA2, based on familial breast and ovarian cancers. These models incorporate the age of diagnosis of diseases in relatives and current age or age of death. We develop a rigorous foundation for handling multiple diseases with censoring. We prove that any disease unrelated to mutations can be excluded from the model, unless it is sufficiently common and dependent on a mutation-related disease time. Furthermore, if a family member has a disease with higher probability density among mutation carriers, but the model does not account for it, then the carrier probability is deflated. However, even if a family only has diseases the model accounts for, if the model excludes a mutation-related disease, then the carrier probability will be inflated. In light of these results, we extend BRCAPRO to account for surviving all non-breast/ovary cancers as a single outcome. The extension also enables BRCAPRO to extract more useful information from male relatives. Using 1500 familes from the Cancer Genetics Network, accounting for surviving other cancers improves BRCAPRO’s concordance index from 0.758 to 0.762 (p = 0.046), improves its positive predictive value from 35% to 39% (p < 10−6) without impacting its negative predictive value, and improves its overall calibration, although calibration slightly worsens for those with carrier probability < 10%. Copyright c 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Information integration and management through the design and construction phases of a project life cycle

Information management is a key aspect of successful construction projects. Having inaccurate measurements and conflicting data can lead to costly mistakes, and vague quantities can ruin estimates and schedules. Building information modeling (BIM) augments a 3D model with a wide variety of information, which reduces many sources of error and can detect conflicts before they occur. Because new technology is often more complex, it can be difficult to effectively integrate it with existing business practices. In this paper, we will answer two questions: How can BIM add value to construction projects? and What lessons can be learned from other companies that use BIM or other similar technology? Previous research focused on the technology as if it were simply a tool, observing problems that occurred while integrating new technology into existing practices. Our research instead looks at the flow of information through a company and its network, seeing all the actors as part of an ecosystem. Building upon this idea, we proposed the metaphor of an information supply chain to illustrate how BIM can add value to a construction project. This paper then concludes with two case studies. The first case study illustrates a failure in the flow of information that could have prevented by using BIM. The second case study profiles a leading design firm that has used BIM products for many years and shows the real benefits of using this program.