Advanced mean field methods:theory and practice

A major problem in modern probabilistic modeling is the huge computational complexity involved in typical calculations with multivariate probability distributions when the number of random variables is large. Because exact computations are infeasible in such cases and Monte Carlo sampling techniques may reach their limits, there is a need for methods that allow for efficient approximate computations. One of the simplest approximations is based on the mean field method, which has a long history in statistical physics. The method is widely used, particularly in the growing field of graphical models. Researchers from disciplines such as statistical physics, computer science, and mathematical statistics are studying ways to improve this and related methods and are exploring novel application areas. Leading approaches include the variational approach, which goes beyond factorizable distributions to achieve systematic improvements; the TAP (Thouless-Anderson-Palmer) approach, which incorporates correlations by including effective reaction terms in the mean field theory; and the more general methods of graphical models. Bringing together ideas and techniques from these diverse disciplines, this book covers the theoretical foundations of advanced mean field methods, explores the relation between the different approaches, examines the quality of the approximation obtained, and demonstrates their application to various areas of probabilistic modeling.

An Overview of Modelling Bulgarian Wildland Fire Behaviour by Application of a Mathematical Game Method and WRF-Fire Models

This paper presents the main achievements of the author’s PhD dissertation. The work is dedicated to mathematical and semi-empirical approaches applied to the case of Bulgarian wildland fires. After the introductory explanations, short information from every chapter is extracted to cover the main parts of the obtained results. The methods used are described in brief and main outcomes are listed. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): D.1.3, D.2.0, K.5.1.

A note on the multiple partners assignment game

In the assignment game of Shapley and Shubik [Shapley, L.S., Shubik, M., 1972. The assignment game. I. The core, International journal of Game Theory 1, 11-130] agents are allowed to form one partnership at most. That paper proves that, in the context of firms and workers, given two stable payoffs for the firms there is a stable payoff which gives each firm the larger of the two amounts and also one which gives each of them the smaller amount. Analogous result applies to the workers. Sotomayor [Sotomayor, M., 1992. The multiple partners game. In: Majumdar, M. (Ed.), Dynamics and Equilibrium: Essays in Honor to D. Gale. Mcmillian, pp. 322-336] extends this analysis to the case where both types of agents may form more than one partnership and an agent`s payoff is multi-dimensional. Instead, this note concentrates in the total payoff of the agents. It is then proved the rather unexpected result that again the maximum of any pair of stable payoffs for the firms is stable but the minimum need not be, even if we restrict the multiplicity of partnerships to one of the sides. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adjusting prices in the multiple-partners assignment game

Starting with an initial price vector, prices are adjusted in order to eliminate the excess demand and at the same time to keep the transfers to the sellers as low as possible. In each step of the auction, to which set of sellers should those transfers be made is the key issue in the description of the algorithm. We assume additively separable utilities and introduce a novel distinction by considering multiple sellers owing multiple identical objects and multiple buyers with an exogenously defined quota, consuming more than one object but at most one unit of a seller`s good and having multi-dimensional payoffs. This distinction induces a necessarily more complicated construction of the over-demanded sets than the constructions of these sets for the other assignment games. For this approach, our mechanism yields the buyer-optimal competitive equilibrium payoff, which equals the buyer-optimal stable payoff. The symmetry of the model allows to getting the seller-optimal stable payoff and the seller-optimal competitive equilibrium payoff can then be also derived.

Stakeholders Theory and Theory of the Firm: a study on the hierarchy of objective-functions in Brazilian companies

Discussion opposing the Theory of the Firm to the Theory of Stakeholders are contemporaneous and polemical. One focal point of such debates refers to which objective-function companies, should choose, whether that of the shareholders or that of the stakeholders, and whether it is possible to opt for both simultaneously. Several empirical studies. have attempted-to test a possible correlation between both functions, and there has not been any consensus-so far. The objective of the present research is to examine a gap in such discussions: is there (or not) a subordination of the stakeholders` objective-function to that of the shareholders? The research is empirical,and analytical and employs quantitative methods. Hypotheses were tested and data analyzed by using non-parametrical (chi-square test) and parametrical procedures (frequency. correlation `coefficient). Secondary data was collected from he Economitica database and from the Brazilian Institute of Social and-Economic Analyses (IBASE) website, relative to public companies that have published their Social Balance Statements following the IBASE model from 1999 to 2006, whose sample amounted to 65 companies; In order to assess the objective-function of shareholders a proxy was created based on the following three indices: ROE (return on equity), EnterpriseValue and Tobin`s Q. In order to assess the objective-function of stakeholders a proxy was created by employing the following IBASE social balance indices: internal ones (ISI), external ones (ISE), and environmental ones (IAM). The results have shown no evidence of subordination of stakeholders` objective-function to that of the shareholders in analyzed companies, negating initial expectations and calling for deeper investigation of results. Its main conclusion, which states that the attempted subordination does not take place, is limited to the sample herein investigated and calls for ongoing research aiming at improvements which may lead to sample enlargement and, as a consequence, may make feasible the application of other statistical techniques which may yield a more thorough, analysis of the studied phenomehon.

The optimum quantity of money: Theory and evidence

In this paper we propose a simple and general model for computing the Ramsey optimal inflation tax, which includes several models from the previous literature as special cases. We show that it cannot be claimed that the Friedman rule is always optimal (or always non--optimal) on theoretical grounds. The Friedman rule is optimal or not, depending on conditions related to the shape of various relevant functions. One contribution of this paper is to relate these conditions to {\it measurable} variables such as the interest rate or the consumption elasticity of money demand. We find that it tends to be optimal to tax money when there are economies of scale in the demand for money (the scale elasticity is smaller than one) and/or when money is required for the payment of consumption or wage taxes. We find that it tends to be optimal to tax money more heavily when the interest elasticity of money demand is small. We present empirical evidence on the parameters that determine the optimal inflation tax. Calibrating the model to a variety of empirical studies yields a optimal nominal interest rate of less than 1\%/year, although that finding is sensitive to the calibration.

Exact and approximate stepdown methods for multiple hypothesis testing

Consider the problem of testing k hypotheses simultaneously. In this paper,we discuss finite and large sample theory of stepdown methods that providecontrol of the familywise error rate (FWE). In order to improve upon theBonferroni method or Holm's (1979) stepdown method, Westfall and Young(1993) make eective use of resampling to construct stepdown methods thatimplicitly estimate the dependence structure of the test statistics. However,their methods depend on an assumption called subset pivotality. The goalof this paper is to construct general stepdown methods that do not requiresuch an assumption. In order to accomplish this, we take a close look atwhat makes stepdown procedures work, and a key component is a monotonicityrequirement of critical values. By imposing such monotonicity on estimatedcritical values (which is not an assumption on the model but an assumptionon the method), it is demonstrated that the problem of constructing a validmultiple test procedure which controls the FWE can be reduced to the problemof contructing a single test which controls the usual probability of a Type 1error. This reduction allows us to draw upon an enormous resamplingliterature as a general means of test contruction.

Social class as a factor for the construction of a musician’s identity : The Musician’s social background and identity questionnaire (MSBIQ) – a cross-sectional comparative quantitative online survey research study of music students at two higher education institutions in Finland

There is currently little empirical knowledge regarding the construction of a musician’s identity and social class. With a theoretical framework based on Bourdieu’s (1984) distinction theory, Bronfenbrenner’s (1979) theory of ecological systems, and the identity theories of Erikson (1950; 1968) and Marcia (1966), a survey called the Musician’s Social Background and Identity Questionnaire (MSBIQ) is developed to test three research hypotheses related to the construction of a musician’s identity, social class and ecological systems of development. The MSBIQ is administered to the music students at Sibelius Academy of the University of Arts Helsinki and Helsinki Metropolia University of Applied Sciences, representing the ’highbrow’ and the ’middlebrow’ samples in the field of music education in Finland. Acquired responses (N = 253) are analyzed and compared with quantitative methods including Pearson’s chi-square test, factor analysis and an adjusted analysis of variance (ANOVA). The study revealed that (1) the music students at Sibelius Academy and Metropolia construct their subjective musician’s identity differently, but (2) social class does not affect this identity construction process significantly. In turn, (3) the ecological systems of development, especially the individual’s residential location, do significantly affect the construction of a musician’s identity, as well as the age at which one starts to play one’s first musical instrument. Furthermore, a novel finding related to the structure of a musician’s identity was the tripartite model of musical identity consisting of the three dimensions of a musician’s identity: (I) ’the subjective dimension of a musician’s identity’, (II) ’the occupational dimension of a musician’s identity’ and, (III) ’the conservative-liberal dimension of a musician’s identity’. According to this finding, a musician’s identity is not a uniform, coherent entity, but a structure consisting of different elements continuously working in parallel within different dimensions. The results and limitations related to the study are discussed, as well as the objectives related to future studies using the MSBIQ to research the identity construction and social backgrounds of a musician or other performing artists.

Teaching grammar: A study of the common English grammar errors and grammar teaching methods that can be relevant for Swedish upper secondary schools

Grammar has always been an important part of language learning. Based on various theories, such as the universal grammar theory (Chomsky, 1959) and, the input theory (Krashen, 1970), the explicit and implicit teaching methods have been developed. Research shows that both methods may have some benefits and disadvantages. The attitude towards English grammar teaching methods in schools has also changed and nowadays grammar teaching methods and learning strategies, as a part of language mastery, are one of the discussion topics among linguists. This study focuses on teacher and learner experiences and beliefs about teaching English grammar and difficulties learners may face. The aim of the study is to conduct a literature review and to find out what scientific knowledge exists concerning the previously named topics. Along with this, the relevant steering documents are investigated focusing on grammar teaching at Swedish upper secondary schools. The universal grammar theory of Chomsky as well as Krashen’s input hypotheses provide the theoretical background for the current study. The study has been conducted applying qualitative and quantitative methods. The systematic search in four databases LIBRIS, ERIK, LLBA and Google Scholar were used for collecting relevant publications. The result shows that scientists’ publications name different grammar areas that are perceived as problematic for learners all over the world. The most common explanation of these difficulties is the influence of learner L1. Research presents teachers’ and learners’ beliefs to the benefits of grammar teaching methods. An effective combination of teaching methods needs to be done to fit learners’ expectations and individual needs. Together, they will contribute to the achieving of higher language proficiency levels and, therefore, they can be successfully applied at Swedish upper secondary schools.

Mathematical modeling and analysis of the particle interactions in the direct filtration using the colloidal theory

This work used the colloidal theory to describe forces and energy interactions of colloidal complexes in the water and those formed during filtration run in direct filtration. Many interactions of particle energy profiles between colloidal surfaces for three geometries are presented here in: spherical, plate and cylindrical; and four surface interactions arrangements: two cylinders, two spheres, two plates and a sphere and a plate. Two different situations were analyzed, before and after electrostatic destabilization by action of the alum sulfate as coagulant in water studies samples prepared with kaolin. In the case were used mathematical modeling by extended DLVO theory (from the names: Derjarguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek) or XDLVO, which include traditional approach of the electric double layer (EDL), surfaces attraction forces or London-van der Waals (LvdW), esteric forces and hydrophobic forces, additionally considering another forces in colloidal system, like molecular repulsion or Born Repulsion and Acid-Base (AB) chemical function forces from Lewis.

A further note on the college admission game

When a stable matching rule is used for a college admission market, questions on incentives facing agents of both sides of the market naturally emerge. This note states and proves four important results which fill a gap in the theory of incentives for the college admission model. Two of them have never been demonstrated but have been used along the years and are responsible for the success that this theory has had in explaining empirical economic phenomena.

GIS-integrated mathematical modeling of social phenomena at macro- and micro- levels—a multivariate geographically-weighted regression model for identifying locations vulnerable to hosting terrorist safe-houses: France as case study

Adaptability and invisibility are hallmarks of modern terrorism, and keeping pace with its dynamic nature presents a serious challenge for societies throughout the world. Innovations in computer science have incorporated applied mathematics to develop a wide array of predictive models to support the variety of approaches to counterterrorism. Predictive models are usually designed to forecast the location of attacks. Although this may protect individual structures or locations, it does not reduce the threat—it merely changes the target. While predictive models dedicated to events or social relationships receive much attention where the mathematical and social science communities intersect, models dedicated to terrorist locations such as safe-houses (rather than their targets or training sites) are rare and possibly nonexistent. At the time of this research, there were no publically available models designed to predict locations where violent extremists are likely to reside. This research uses France as a case study to present a complex systems model that incorporates multiple quantitative, qualitative and geospatial variables that differ in terms of scale, weight, and type. Though many of these variables are recognized by specialists in security studies, there remains controversy with respect to their relative importance, degree of interaction, and interdependence. Additionally, some of the variables proposed in this research are not generally recognized as drivers, yet they warrant examination based on their potential role within a complex system. This research tested multiple regression models and determined that geographically-weighted regression analysis produced the most accurate result to accommodate non-stationary coefficient behavior, demonstrating that geographic variables are critical to understanding and predicting the phenomenon of terrorism. This dissertation presents a flexible prototypical model that can be refined and applied to other regions to inform stakeholders such as policy-makers and law enforcement in their efforts to improve national security and enhance quality-of-life.

A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stability property of matchings is a natural solution concept in coalitional market games

Stability of matchings was proved to be a new cooperative equilibrium concept in Sotomayor (Dynamics and equilibrium: essays in honor to D. Gale, 1992). That paper introduces the innovation of treating as multi-dimensional the payoff of a player with a quota greater than one. This is done for the many-to-many matching model with additively separable utilities, for which the stability concept is defined. It is then proved, via linear programming, that the set of stable outcomes is nonempty and it may be strictly bigger than the set of dual solutions and strictly smaller than the core. The present paper defines a general concept of stability and shows that this concept is a natural solution concept, stronger than the core concept, for a much more general coalitional game than a matching game. Instead of mutual agreements inside partnerships, the players are allowed to make collective agreements inside coalitions of any size and to distribute his labor among them. A collective agreement determines the level of labor at which the coalition operates and the division, among its members, of the income generated by the coalition. An allocation specifies a set of collective agreements for each player.

The pareto-stability concept is a natural solution concept for discrete matching markets with indifferences

In a decentralized setting the game-theoretical predictions are that only strong blockings are allowed to rupture the structure of a matching. This paper argues that, under indifferences, also weak blockings should be considered when these blockings come from the grand coalition. This solution concept requires stability plus Pareto optimality. A characterization of the set of Pareto-stable matchings for the roommate and the marriage models is provided in terms of individually rational matchings whose blocking pairs, if any, are formed with unmatched agents. These matchings always exist and give an economic intuition on how blocking can be done by non-trading agents, so that the transactions need not be undone as agents reach the set of stable matchings. Some properties of the Pareto-stable matchings shared by the Marriage and Roommate models are obtained.