Habitat selection and population regulation in temporally fluctuating environments

Understanding and predicting the distribution of organisms in heterogeneous environments lies at the heart of ecology, and the theory of density-dependent habitat selection (DDHS) provides ecologists with an inferential framework linking evolution and population dynamics. Current theory does not allow for temporal variation in habitat quality, a serious limitation when confronted with real ecological systems. We develop both a stochastic equivalent of the ideal free distribution to study how spatial patterns of habitat use depend on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity and also a stochastic habitat selection rule. The emerging patterns are confronted with deterministic predictions based on isodar analysis, an established empirical approach to the analysis of habitat selection patterns. Our simulations highlight some consistent patterns of habitat use, indicating that it is possible to make inferences about the habitat selection process based on observed patterns of habitat use. However, isodar analysis gives results that are contingent on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity. Hence, DDHS is better revealed by a measure of habitat selectivity than by empirical isodars. The detection of DDHS is but a small component of isodar theory, which remains an important conceptual framework for linking evolutionary strategies in behavior and population dynamics.

Forecasting Helicoverpa populations in Australia: A comparison of regression based models and a bio-climatic based modeling approach

Long-term forecasts of pest pressure are central to the effective management of many agricultural insect pests. In the eastern cropping regions of Australia, serious infestations of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner)(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) are experienced annually. Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches of adult moths were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of both species. The size of the spring generation in eastern cropping zones could be related to rainfall in putative source areas in inland Australia. Subsequent generations could be related to the abundance of various crops in agricultural areas, rainfall and the magnitude of the spring population peak. As rainfall figured prominently as a predictor variable, and can itself be predicted using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trap catches were also related to this variable. The geographic distribution of each species was modelled in relation to climate and CLIMEX was used to predict temporal variation in abundance at given putative source sites in inland Australia using historical meteorological data. These predictions were then correlated with subsequent pest abundance data in a major cropping region. The regression-based and bioclimatic-based approaches to predicting pest abundance are compared and their utility in predicting and interpreting pest dynamics are discussed.

The displacement and strain field of three-dimensional rheologic model of earthquake preparation

Based on the three-dimensional elastic inclusion model proposed by Dobrovolskii, we developed a rheological inclusion model to study earthquake preparation processes. By using the Corresponding Principle in the theory of rheologic mechanics, we derived the analytic expressions of viscoelastic displacement U(r, t) , V(r, t) and W(r, t), normal strains epsilon(xx) (r, t), epsilon(yy) (r, t) and epsilon(zz) (r, t) and the bulk strain theta (r, t) at an arbitrary point (x, y, z) in three directions of X axis, Y axis and Z axis produced by a three-dimensional inclusion in the semi-infinite rheologic medium defined by the standard linear rheologic model. Subsequent to the spatial-temporal variation of bulk strain being computed on the ground produced by such a spherical rheologic inclusion, interesting results are obtained, suggesting that the bulk strain produced by a hard inclusion change with time according to three stages (alpha, beta, gamma) with different characteristics, similar to that of geodetic deformation observations, but different with the results of a soft inclusion. These theoretical results can be used to explain the characteristics of spatial-temporal evolution, patterns, quadrant-distribution of earthquake precursors, the changeability, spontaneity and complexity of short-term and imminent-term precursors. It offers a theoretical base to build physical models for earthquake precursors and to predict the earthquakes.

Tailoring magnetic field gradient design to magnet cryostat geometry

Eddy currents induced within a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) cryostat bore during pulsing of gradient coils can be applied constructively together with the gradient currents that generate them, to obtain good quality gradient uniformities within a specified imaging volume over time. This can be achieved by simultaneously optimizing the spatial distribution and temporal pre-emphasis of the gradient coil current, to account for the spatial and temporal variation of the secondary magnetic fields due to the induced eddy currents. This method allows the tailored design of gradient coil/magnet configurations and consequent engineering trade-offs. To compute the transient eddy currents within a realistic cryostat vessel, a low-frequency finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method using total-field scattered-field (TFSF) scheme has been performed and validated

Self-similar parabolic optical solitary waves

We study solutions of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLSE) with gain, describing optical pulse propagation in an amplifying medium. We construct a semiclassical self-similar solution with a parabolic temporal variation that corresponds to the energy-containing core of the asymptotically propagating pulse in the amplifying medium. We match the self-similar core through Painlevé functions to the solution of the linearized equation that corresponds to the low-amplitude tails of the pulse. The analytic solution accurately reproduces the numerically calculated solution of the NLSE.

Self-similar parabolic optical solitary waves

We study solutions of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLSE) with gain, describing optical pulse propagation in an amplifying medium. We construct a semiclassical self-similar solution with a parabolic temporal variation that corresponds to the energy-containing core of the asymptotically propagating pulse in the amplifying medium. We match the self-similar core through Painlevé functions to the solution of the linearized equation that corresponds to the low-amplitude tails of the pulse. The analytic solution accurately reproduces the numerically calculated solution of the NLSE.

'Growth rings' in crustose lichens:comparison with directly measured growth rates and implications for lichenometry

Some species of crustose lichens, such as Ochrolechia parella (L.) Massal., exhibit concentric marginal rings, which may represent an alternative technique of measuring growth rates and potentially, a new lichenometric dating method. To examine this hypothesis, the agreement and correlation between ring widths and directly measured annual radial growth rates (RaGR, mm a^-1) were studied in 24 thalli of O. parella in north Wales, UK, using digital photography and image analysis. Variation in ring width was observed at different locations around a thallus, between thalli, and from year to year. The best agreement and correlation between ring width and lichen growth rates was between mean width of the outer two rings (measured in 2011) and mean RaGR (in 2009/10). The O. parella data suggest that mean width of the youngest two growth rings, averaged over a sample of thalli, is a predictor of recent growth rates and therefore could be used in lichenometry. Potential applications include as a convenient method of comparing lichen growth rates on surfaces in different environmental settings; and as an alternative method of constructing lichen growth-rate curves, without having to revisit the same lichen thalli over many years. However, care is needed when using growth rings to estimate growth rates as: growth ring widths may not be stable; ring widths exhibit spatial and temporal variation; rings may not represent 1-year's growth in all thalli; and adjacent rings may not always represent successive year's growth.

The Role of the Everglades Mangrove Ecotone Region (EMER) in Regulating Nutrient Cycling and Wetland Productivity in South Florida

The authors summarize the main findings of the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research (FCE-LTER) program in the EMER, within the context of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), to understand how regional processes, mediated by water flow, control population and ecosystem dynamics across the EMER landscape. Tree canopies with maximum height <3 m cover 49% of the EMER, particularly in the SE region. These scrub/dwarf mangroves are the result of a combination of low soil phosphorus (P < 59 μg P g dw−1) in the calcareous marl substrate and long hydroperiod. Phosphorus limits the EMER and its freshwater watersheds due to the lack of terrigenous sediment input and the phosphorus-limited nature of the freshwater Everglades. Reduced freshwater delivery over the past 50 years, combined with Everglades compartmentalization and a 10 cm rise in coastal sea level, has led to the landward transgression (1.5 km in 54 years) of the mangrove ecotone. Seasonal variation in freshwater input strongly controls the temporal variation of nitrogen and P exports (99%) from the Everglades to Florida Bay. Rapid changes in nutrient availability and vegetation distribution during the last 50 years show that future ecosystem restoration actions and land use decisions can exert a major influence, similar to sea level rise over the short term, on nutrient cycling and wetland productivity in the EMER.

Using soil profiles of seeds and molecular markers as proxies for sawgrass and wet prairie slough vegetation in Shark Slough, Everglades National Park

We measured the abundance of Cladium jamaicense (Crantz) seeds and three biomarkers in freshwater marsh soils in Shark River Slough (SRS), Everglades National Park (ENP) to determine the degree to which these paleoecological proxies reflect spatial and temporal variation in vegetation. We found that C. jamaicense seeds and the biomarkers Paq, total lignin phenols (TLP) and kaurenes analyzed from surface soils were all significantly correlated with extant aboveground C. jamaicense biomass quantified along a vegetation gradient from a C. jamaicense to a wet prairie/slough (WPS) community. Our results also suggest that these individual proxies may reflect vegetation over different spatial scales: Paq and kaurenes correlated most strongly (R 2 = 0.88 and 0.99, respectively) with vegetation within 1 m of a soil sample, while seeds and TLP reflected vegetation 0–20 m upstream of soil samples. These differences in the spatial scale depicted by the different proxies may be complementary in understanding aspects of historic landscape patterning. Soil profiles of short (25 cm) cores showed that downcore variation in C. jamaicense seeds was highly correlated with two of the three biomarkers (Paq, R 2 = 0.84, p<0.005; TLP, R 2 = 0.97, p<0.0001), and all four of the proxies indicated a recent increase in C. jamaicense biomass at the site. Using a preliminary depth-to-age relationship based on matching charcoal peaks with available ENP fire records (1980-present) specific to our coring site, we found that peak-depths in C. jamaicense seed concentration appeared to correspond to recent minimum water levels (e.g., 1989 and 2001), and low seed abundance corresponded to high water levels (e.g., 1995), consistent with the known autecology of C. jamaicense. In summary, the combination of C. jamaicense seeds and biomarkers may be useful for paleoecological reconstruction of vegetation change and ultimately in guaging the success of ongoing efforts to restore historic hydrologic conditions in the South Florida Everglades.

The effects of hydroperiod on the life-history parameters of Lucania goodei (fundulidae) in the Florida Everglades

In aquatic ecosystems, hydrological fluctuation may generate a gradient of lifehistory responses associated with marsh drying. This study was conducted in the Florida Everglades to document spatial and temporal variability in growth and survivorship of the bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) from six populations along a hydroperiod gradient. The otolith-microstructure analysis of field-collected fish was used to estimate growth rate and those data were combined with field-density estimates for survivorship analysis. Otolith analysis revealed that L. goodei is extremely short-lived with no variation in growth rates and very little spatial or temporal variation in survivorship. These results suggest that bluefin killifish populations experience similar life histories across a diversity of hydroperiods either through well-mixed populations homogenizing these vital rates, or more likely, that a multitude of factors force L. goodei to respond to these "stressors" in a similar fashion across hydroperiod gradients.

When wolves cry: long distance calling by wild maned wolves

The maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus Illiger 1815) is the biggest canid in South America and it is considered a “near threatened” species by IUCN. Because of its nocturnal, territorial and solitary habits, there are still many understudied aspects of their behavior in natural environments, including acoustic communication. In its vocal repertoire, the wolf presents a longdistance call named “roar-bark” which, according to literature, functions for spacing maintenance between individuals and/or communication between members of the reproductive pair inside the territory. In this context, this study aimed: 1) to compare four methods for detecting maned wolf’s roar-barks in recordings made in a natural environment, in order to elect the most efficient one for our project; 2) to understand the night emission pattern of these vocalizations, verifying possible weather and moon phases influences in roarbark’s emission rates; and 3) to test Passive Acoustic Monitoring as a tool to identify the presence of maned wolves in a natural environment. The study area was the Serra da Canastra National Park (Minas Gerais, Brazil), where autonomous recorders were used for sound acquisition, recording all night (from 06pm to 06am) during five days in December/2013 and every day from April to July/2014. Roar-barks’ detection methods were tested and compared regarding time needed to analyze files, number of false positives and number of correctly identified calls. The mixed method (XBAT + manual) was the most efficient one, finding 100% of vocalizations in almost half of the time the manual method did, being chosen for our data analysis. By studying roarbarks’ temporal variation we verified that the wolves vocalize more in the early hours of the evening, suggesting an important social function for those calls at the beginning of its period of most intense activity. Average wind speed negatively influenced vocalization rate, which may indicate lower sound reception of recorders or a change in behavioral patterns of wolves in high speed wind conditions. A better understanding of seasonal variation of maned wolves’ vocal activity is required, but our study already shows that it is possible to detect behavioral patterns of wild animals only by sound, validating PAM as a tool in this species’ conservation.

Surface velocity fields, digital elevation models, ice front positions and grounding line derived from remote sensing data at Dinsmoor-Bombardier-Edgeworth glacier system, Antarctic Peninsula (1992-2014)

The northern Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest changing regions on Earth. The disintegration of the Larsen-A Ice Shelf in 1995 caused tributary glaciers to adjust by speeding up, surface lowering, and overall increased ice-mass discharge. In this study, we investigate the temporal variation of these changes at the Dinsmoor-Bombardier-Edgeworth glacier system by analyzing dense time series from various spaceborne and airborne Earth observation missions. Precollapse ice shelf conditions and subsequent adjustments through 2014 were covered. Our results show a response of the glacier system some months after the breakup, reaching maximum surface velocities at the glacier front of up to 8.8 m/d in 1999 and a subsequent decrease to ~1.5 m/d in 2014. Using a dense time series of interferometrically derived TanDEM-X digital elevation models and photogrammetric data, an exponential function was fitted for the decrease in surface elevation. Elevation changes in areas below 1000 m a.s.l. amounted to at least 130±15 m130±15 m between 1995 and 2014, with change rates of ~3.15 m/a between 2003 and 2008. Current change rates (2010-2014) are in the range of 1.7 m/a. Mass imbalances were computed with different scenarios of boundary conditions. The most plausible results amount to -40.7±3.9 Gt-40.7±3.9 Gt. The contribution to sea level rise was estimated to be 18.8±1.8 Gt18.8±1.8 Gt, corresponding to a 0.052±0.005 mm0.052±0.005 mm sea level equivalent, for the period 1995-2014. Our analysis and scenario considerations revealed that major uncertainties still exist due to insufficiently accurate ice-thickness information. The second largest uncertainty in the computations was the glacier surface mass balance, which is still poorly known. Our time series analysis facilitates an improved comparison with GRACE data and as input to modeling of glacio-isostatic uplift in this region. The study contributed to a better understanding of how glacier systems adjust to ice shelf disintegration.

Stable-isotope ratios and accumulation rates of four firn cores from the Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

Four firn cores were retrieved in 2007 at two ridges in the area of the Ekström Ice Shelf, Dronning Maud Land, coastal East Antarctica, in order to investigate the recent regional climate variability and the potential for future extraction of an intermediate-depth core. Stable water-isotope analysis, tritium content and electrical conductivity were used to date the cores. For the period 1981-2006 a strong and significant correlation between the stable-isotope composition of firn cores in the hinterland and mean monthly air temperatures at Neumayer station was (r=0.54-0.71). No atmospheric warming or cooling trend is inferred from our stable-isotope data for the period 1962-2006. The stable-isotope record of the ice/firn cores could expand well beyond the meteorological record of the region. No significant temporal variation of accumulation rates was detected. However, decreasing accumulation rates were found from coast to hinterland, as well as from east (Halvfarryggen) to west (Søråsen). The deuterium excess (d) exhibits similar differences (higher d at Søråsen, lower d at Halvfarryggen), with a weak negative temporal trend on Halvfarryggen (0.04 per mil/a), probably implying increasing oceanic input. We conclude that Halvfarryggen acts as a natural barrier for moisture-carrying air masses circulating in the region from east to west.

Age determination of sediments off western Svalbard

Late Quaternary sediment yields from the Isfjorden drainage area (7327 km**2), a high arctic region on Svalbard characterized by an alpine landscape, have been reconstructed by using seismic stratigraphy supported by sediment core analysis. The sediments that accumulated in the fjord during and since deglaciation can be divided into three stratigraphic units. The volumes of these units were determined and converted into sediment yield rates averaged over the drainage basin. During deglaciation, 13 to 10 ka, the sediment yield was ~860 tons(t)/km**2/yr. In the early Holocene it decreased to 190 t/km**2/yr, and then increased to 390t/km**2/yr during the late Holocene Little Ice Age. When normalized to the approximate glacierized area, these rates correspond to a sediment yield of ~800 t/km**2/yr . Sediment yield from non-glacierized parts of the drainage is estimated to be 35 t/km**2/yr. At times when ice advanced to the shelf edge, sediment was scoured from the fjord and deposited on the outer shelf and in a well-defined deep sea fan. Between 200 ka and 13 ka, 328 km**3 of sediment accumulated here, corresponding to a mean sediment yield rate of 335 t/km**2/yr. This is broadly consistent with calculations based on the above rates of sediment yield in glacierized and non-glacierized areas, and on estimates, based on glacial geology, of the temporal variation in degree of glacierization over the past 200 kyr. These figures indicate that much of the glacigenic sediment on the shelf and slope was eroded from the uplands of Svalbard by small glaciers during interstadials and interglacials. The sediments were temporarily stored in the fjord prior to redeposition on the shelf and slope during ice sheet advance. Taken into consideration, such redisposition of pre-eroded material will reduce estimates of primary ice sheet erosion rate.

Sources, Fate and Transformation of Organic Matter in Wetlands and Estuaries

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is a complex mixture of organic compounds and represents the largest reservoirs of carbon (C) on earth. Particulate organic matter (POM) is another important carbon component in C cycling and controls a variety of biogeochemical processes. Estuaries, as important interfaces between land and ocean, play important roles in retaining and transforming such organic matter (OM) and serve as both sources and sinks of DOM and POM. There is a diverse array of both autochthonous and allochthonous OM sources in wetland/estuarine ecosystems. A comprehensive study on the sources, transformation and fate of OM in such ecosystems is essential in advancing our understanding of C cycling and better constraining the global C budget. In this work, DOM characteristics were investigated in different estuaries. Dissolved organic matter source strengths and dynamics were assessed in a seagrass-dominated subtropical estuarine lagoon. DOM dynamics controlled by hydrology and seagrass primary productivity were confirmed, and the primary source of DOM was quantified using the combination of excitation emission matrix fluorescence with parallel factor analysis (EEM-PARAFAC) and stable C isotope analysis. Seagrass can contribute up to 72% of the DOM in the study area. The spatial and temporal variation of DOM dynamics was also studied in a freshwated dominated estuary fringed with extensive salt marshes. The data showed that DOM was primarily derived from freshwater marshes and controlled by hydrology while salt marsh plants play a significant role in structuring the distribution patterns of DOM quality and quantity. The OM dynamics was also investigated in a mangrove-dominate estuary and a comparative study was conducted between the DOM and POM pools. The results revealed both similarity and dissimilarity in DOM and POM composition. The dynamics of both OM pools are largely uncoupled as a result of source differences. Fringe mangrove swamps are suggested to export similar amounts of DOM and POM and should be considered as an important source in coastal C budgets. Lastly, chemical characterizations were conducted on the featured fluorescence component in OM in an attempt to better understand the composition and origins of the specific PARAFAC component. The traditionally defined ‘protein-like’ fluorescence was found to contain both proteinaceous and phenolic compounds, suggesting that the application of this parameter as a proxy for amino acid content and bioavailability may be limited.