Discrete-event Simulation and Optimization to Improve the Performance of a Healthcare System

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Online MBPeT dashboard : enabling performance testing as a service in the cloud

In this thesis, tool support is addressed for the combined disciplines of Model-based testing and performance testing. Model-based testing (MBT) utilizes abstract behavioral models to automate test generation, thus decreasing time and cost of test creation. MBT is a functional testing technique, thereby focusing on output, behavior, and functionality. Performance testing, however, is non-functional and is concerned with responsiveness and stability under various load conditions. MBPeT (Model-Based Performance evaluation Tool) is one such tool which utilizes probabilistic models, representing dynamic real-world user behavior patterns, to generate synthetic workload against a System Under Test and in turn carry out performance analysis based on key performance indicators (KPI). Developed at Åbo Akademi University, the MBPeT tool is currently comprised of a downloadable command-line based tool as well as a graphical user interface. The goal of this thesis project is two-fold: 1) to extend the existing MBPeT tool by deploying it as a web-based application, thereby removing the requirement of local installation, and 2) to design a user interface for this web application which will add new user interaction paradigms to the existing feature set of the tool. All phases of the MBPeT process will be realized via this single web deployment location including probabilistic model creation, test configurations, test session execution against a SUT with real-time monitoring of user configurable metric, and final test report generation and display. This web application (MBPeT Dashboard) is implemented with the Java programming language on top of the Vaadin framework for rich internet application development. The Vaadin framework handles the complicated web communications processes and front-end technologies, freeing developers to implement the business logic as well as the user interface in pure Java. A number of experiments are run in a case study environment to validate the functionality of the newly developed Dashboard application as well as the scalability of the solution implemented in handling multiple concurrent users. The results support a successful solution with regards to the functional and performance criteria defined, while improvements and optimizations are suggested to increase both of these factors.

Thermal and exergy analysis for evaluation and optimization of performance of cooling towers for fresh water and seawater

In this study, thermal, exergetic analysis and performance evaluation of seawater and fresh wet cooling tower and the effect of parameters on its performance is investigated. With using of energy and mass balance equations, experimental results, a mathematical model and EES code developed. Due to lack of fresh water, seawater cooling is interesting choice for future of cooling, so the effect of seawater in the range of 1gr/kg to 60gr/kg for salinity on the performance characteristics like air efficiency, water efficiency, output water temperature of cooling tower, flow of the exergy, and the exergy efficiency with comparison with fresh water examined. Decreasing of air efficiency about 3%, increasing of water efficiency about 1.5% are some of these effects. Moreover with formation of fouling the performance of cooling tower decreased about 15% which this phenomena and its effects like increase in output water temperature and tower excess volume has been showed and also accommodate with others work. Also optimization for minimizing cost, maximizing air efficiency, and minimizing exergy destruction has been done, results showed that optimization on minimizing the exergy destruction has been satisfy both minimization of the cost and the maximization of the air efficiency, although it will not necessarily permanent for all inputs and optimizations. Validation of this work is done by comparing computational results and experimental data which showed that the model have a good accuracy.

The evaluation of bone composition and carcass quality traits on back fracture in pigs stunned using electrical system.

2016

Ambiências térmica, aérea e acústica para reprodutores suínos

The swine breeder rearing environment directly affects the animal's performance. This research had the objective of developing a thermal, aerial and acoustic environmental evaluation pattern for boar housing. The experiment was carried on a commercial swine farm in Salto County -SP, Brazil. Thermal, aerial and acoustic environment data of rearing conditions were registered. Data were statistically analyzed using as threshold the ideal housing environment that leads to animal welfare. Results showed that ambient temperature was around 70% beyond normal range, while air relative humidity, air speed and gases concentration were within threshold values. Noise level data besides being within normal range did not present large variation. In relation to the fuzzy logic analysis it was possible to build up a scenario which indicated that the best welfare indexes to male swine breeders happens when thermal comfort index are close to 80%, and noise level is lower than 40 dB. In the other hand the worst welfare index occur in the sector where the thermal comfort values are below 40% at the same time that the noise level is higher than 80 dB leading to inadequate conditions to the animal, and may directly interfere in the reproduction system performance.

Mensuração da potência mecânica em esforços de alta intensidade na condição laboratorial de corrida atada e na condição de campo em corrida semi-atada e livre

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Mortes evitáveis em menores de um ano, Brasil, 1997 a 2006: contribuições para a avaliação de desempenho do Sistema Único de Saúde

Os óbitos de menores de um ano foram classificados em causas evitáveis, mal definidas e não evitáveis empregando a Lista Brasileira de Mortes Evitáveis, entre 1997-2006. Foram calculados tendências dos coeficientes de mortalidade infantil por causas de morte e se usou regressão não linear para avaliação de tendência. As causas evitáveis e as causas mal definidas apresentaram significativa redução (p < 0,001). As causas reduzíveis de mortalidade apresentaram redução de 37%. A mortalidade por causas reduzíveis por adequada atenção ao parto declinou em 27,7%; adequada atenção ao recém-nascido, 42,5%; e por adequada atenção à gestação cresceu 28,3%. Concluiu-se que os serviços de saúde contribuíram para a redução da mortalidade infantil. O declínio das causas mal definidas de morte indica ampliação do acesso aos serviços de saúde. O aumento do acesso e atenção ao parto e aos cuidados com recém-nascido contribuíram para a redução de óbitos infantis. O aumento da mortalidade por adequada atenção à gestação revela a necessidade de aprimoramento da atenção pré-natal.

Reachability of the synchronous state in a mutually connected PLL network

Second-order phase locked loops (PLLs) are devices that are able to provide synchronization between the nodes in a network even under severe quality restrictions in the signal propagation. Consequently, they are widely used in telecommunication and control. Conventional master-slave (M-S) clock-distribution systems are being, replaced by mutually connected (MC) ones due to their good potential to be used in new types of application such as wireless sensor networks, distributed computation and communication systems. Here, by using an analytical reasoning, a nonlinear algebraic system of equations is proposed to establish the existence conditions for the synchronous state in an MC PLL network. Numerical experiments confirm the analytical results and provide ideas about how the network parameters affect the reachability of the synchronous state. The phase-difference oscillation amplitudes are related to the node parameters helping to design PLL neural networks. Furthermore, estimation of the acquisition time depending on the node parameters allows the performance evaluation of time distribution systems and neural networks based on phase-locked techniques. (c) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Development and evaluation of neural network freeway incident detection models using field data

This paper discusses a multi-layer feedforward (MLF) neural network incident detection model that was developed and evaluated using field data. In contrast to published neural network incident detection models which relied on simulated or limited field data for model development and testing, the model described in this paper was trained and tested on a real-world data set of 100 incidents. The model uses speed, flow and occupancy data measured at dual stations, averaged across all lanes and only from time interval t. The off-line performance of the model is reported under both incident and non-incident conditions. The incident detection performance of the model is reported based on a validation-test data set of 40 incidents that were independent of the 60 incidents used for training. The false alarm rates of the model are evaluated based on non-incident data that were collected from a freeway section which was video-taped for a period of 33 days. A comparative evaluation between the neural network model and the incident detection model in operation on Melbourne's freeways is also presented. The results of the comparative performance evaluation clearly demonstrate the substantial improvement in incident detection performance obtained by the neural network model. The paper also presents additional results that demonstrate how improvements in model performance can be achieved using variable decision thresholds. Finally, the model's fault-tolerance under conditions of corrupt or missing data is investigated and the impact of loop detector failure/malfunction on the performance of the trained model is evaluated and discussed. The results presented in this paper provide a comprehensive evaluation of the developed model and confirm that neural network models can provide fast and reliable incident detection on freeways. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Primary Cleft Nose Repair: Severity of the Cleft Versus Final Position of the Nose

Background: Since 1957, when the concept of rotation-advancement repair was introduced by Millard, this technique has become the procedure of choice for unilateral cleft lip worldwide. More recently, modifications described by Noordhoof, Mohler, Skoog, and McComb started being jointly performed so that better results could be obtained. In this study, the nasal position was evaluated and related to the size of the cleft. The primary unilateral cleft lip repair was performed through a modified technique. Methods: Forty-five patients with unilateral cleft lip underwent primary surgical repair through this technique. To analyze aesthetic results, a severity classification of deformities and a scoring system for evaluation of the results were established based on nasal alar lateralization, dome position, alignment of bone segments, and deviation of the columella. Results: By means of the established system, 26.6% of mild forms, 13.4% of moderate forms, and 60% of severe forms were observed. Among aesthetic results, 17.8% were found to be good, and 82.2% were considered excellent. Among aspects considered negative, late deformity of the lower lateral cartilage prevailed. Conclusions: Through the presented evaluation, the authors observed that there was no relation between severity of the cleft and final position of the nose. Among the 27 patients considered to have had severe forms of cleft deformity, 22 were classified as excellent results (81.5%). To obtain better results along time, technical refinements and the critical analysis of results must be performed on a routinely basis.

Sistema de avalia????o e premia????o por resultados da Embrapa

O presente trabalho apresenta conceitos e aspectos operacionais do Sistema de Avalia????o e Premia????o por Resultados da Embrapa/SAPRE, implantado em 1996, cujo objetivo ?? o de elevar o desempenho das unidades de pesquisa, equipes e empregados da Empresa, recompensando os mais produtivos. O Sistema ?? constitu??do por 6 componentes: a) avalia????o de unidades; b) premia????o de unidades; c) avalia????o de equipes e empregados; d) premia????o de equipes e empregados; e) premia????o nacional de projetos e f) premia????o por excel??ncia. As unidades s??o avaliadas em conformidade a: a) cumprimento de metas; b) efici??ncia relativa; c) avalia????o de qualidade t??cnica; d) impacto s??cio-econ??mico; e) avalia????o de imagem. A conjuga????o desses fatores constitui o ??ndice de Desempenho Institucional de uma unidade, base para o c??lculo financeiro de sua premia????o. A avalia????o de equipes e empregados de cada unidade compreende o respectivo desempenho em: a) cumprimento de metas individuais; b) capta????o de recursos; c) criatividade em pesquisa e desenvolvimento (P&D); d) qualidade t??cnica dos projetos de pesquisa. Os empregados com melhor desempenho, individualmente e por equipes de trabalho, s??o premiados com um b??nus financeiro. Al??m disso, o SAPRE inclui a premia????o de projetos, que, no ??mbito nacional, se destacam em termos de criatividade, parceria, capta????o de recursos, qualidade t??cnica e melhoria de processos. Tamb??m s??o premiados com trof??us e diplomas os dois melhores empregados (um pesquisador e um de suporte ?? pesquisa) de cada unidade descentralizada e da sede como um todo.

Towards the design of efficient nonbeacon-enabled ZigBee networks

This paper presents experimental results of the communication performance evaluation of a prototype ZigBee-based patient monitoring system commissioned in an in-patient floor of a Portuguese hospital (HPG – Hospital Privado de Guimar~aes). Besides, it revisits relevant problems that affect the performance of nonbeacon-enabled ZigBee networks. Initially, the presence of hidden-nodes and the impact of sensor node mobility are discussed. It was observed, for instance, that the message delivery ratio in a star network consisting of six wireless electrocardiogram sensor devices may decrease from 100% when no hidden-nodes are present to 83.96% when half of the sensor devices are unable to detect the transmissions made by the other half. An additional aspect which affects the communication reliability is a deadlock condition that can occur if routers are unable to process incoming packets during the backoff part of the CSMA-CA mechanism. A simple approach to increase the message delivery ratio in this case is proposed and its effectiveness is verified. The discussion and results presented in this paper aim to contribute to the design of efficient networks,and are valid to other scenarios and environments rather than hospitals.

Measuring fund performance using multi-factor models: evidence for the Portuguese market

This paper examines the performance of Portuguese equity funds investing in the domestic and in the European Union market, using several unconditional and conditional multi-factor models. In terms of overall performance, we find that National funds are neutral performers, while European Union funds under-perform the market significantly. These results do not seem to be a consequence of management fees. Overall, our findings are supportive of the robustness of conditional multi-factor models. In fact, Portuguese equity funds seem to be relatively more exposed to smallcaps and more value-oriented. Also, they present strong evidence of time-varying betas and, in the case of the European Union funds, of time-varying alphas too. Finally, in terms of market timing, our tests suggest that mutual fund managers in our sample do not exhibit any market timing abilities. Nevertheless, we find some evidence of timevarying conditional market timing abilities but only at the individual fund level.

Style and performance of international socially responsible funds in Europe

This paper analyses the performance and investment styles of internationally oriented Socially Responsible Investment (SRI)funds, domiciled in eight European markets, in comparison with characteristics-matched conventional funds. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first multi-country study, focused on international SRI funds (investing in Global and in European equities), to combine the matched-pairs approach with the use of robust conditional multi-factor performance evaluation models, which allow for both time-varying alphas and betas and also control for home biases and spurious regression biases.In general, the results show that differences in the performance of international SRI funds and their conventional peers are not statistically significant. Regarding investment styles, SRI and conventional funds exhibit similar factor exposures in most cases. In addition,conventional benchmarks present a higher explaining power of SRI fund returns than SRI benchmarks. Our results also show significant differences in the investment styles of SRI funds according to whether they use “best-in-class” screening strategies or not. When compared to SRI funds that employ simple negative and/or positive screens, SRI “best-in-class” funds present significantly lower exposures to small caps and momentum strategies and significantly higher exposures to local stocks.

Performance of european socially responsible funds during market crises: evidence from France

This paper investigates the performance, investment styles andmanagerial abilities of French socially responsible investment (SRI) funds investing in Europe during crisis and non-crisis periods. Our results show that SRI funds significantly underperformcharacteristics-matched conventional funds during non-crisis periods, but match the performance of their peers duringmarket downturns. The underperformance of SRI funds during good economic states is driven by funds that use negative screens, since funds that use only positive screens performsimilarly to conventional funds across differentmarket conditions. SRI and conventional funds showsignificant differences in risk exposures during non-crisis periods but exhibit much more similar investment styles during crises. Furthermore,we find little evidence of significant differences inmanagerial abilities during bad economic states. Yet, during non-crisis periods, SRI and conventional fund managers exhibit significantly different style-timing abilities and these differences are also related to screening strategies.