Preterm birth and risk factors for chronic disease : Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults

Background: The improved prognosis of early preterm birth has created a generation of surviving very low birth weight (PIENEMPI KUIN 1500 g, VLBW) infants whose health risks in adulthood are poorly known. Of every 1000 live-born infants in Finland, about 8 are born at VLBW. Variation in birth weight, even within the normal range, relates to considerable variation in the risk for several common adult disorders, including cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis. Small preterm infants frequently exhibit severe postnatal or prenatal growth retardation, or both. Much reason for concern thus exists, regarding adverse health effects in surviving small preterm infants later lives. We studied young adults, aiming at exploring whether VLBW birth and postnatal events after such a birth are associated with higher levels of risk factors for cardiovascular disease or osteoporosis. Subjects and Methods: A follow-up study for VLBW infants began in 1978; by the end of 1985, 335 VLBW survivors at Helsinki University Central Hospital participated in the follow-up. Their gestational ages ranged from 24 to 35 weeks, mean 29.2 and standard deviation 2.2 weeks. In 2004, we invited for a clinic visit 255 subjects, aged 18 to 27, who still lived in the greater Helsinki area. From the same birth hospitals, we also invited 314 term-born controls of similar age and sex. These two study groups underwent measurements of body size and composition, function of brachial arterial endothelium (flow-mediated dilatation, FMD) and carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) by ultrasound. In addition, we measured plasma lipid concentrations, ambulatory blood pressure, fasting insulin, glucose tolerance and, by dual-energy x-ray densitometry, bone-mineral density. Results: 172 control and 166 VLBW participants underwent lipid measurements and a glucose tolerance test. VLBW adults fasting insulin (adjusted for body mass index) was 12.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 25.8) higher than that of the controls. The glucose and insulin concentrations 120 minutes after 75 g glucose ingestion showed similar differences (N=332) (I). VLBW adults had 3.9 mmHg (1.3 to 6.4) higher office systolic blood pressure, 3.5 mmHg (1.7 to 5.2) higher office diastolic blood pressure (I), and, when adjusted for body mass index and height, 3.1 mmHg (0.5 to 5.5) higher 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure (N=238) (II). VLBW birth was associated neither with HDL- or total cholesterol nor triglyceride concentrations (N=332) (I), nor was it associated with a low FMD or a high cIMT (N=160) (III). VLBW adults had 0.51-unit (0.28 to 0.75) lower lumbar spine Z scores and 0.56-unit (0.34 to 0.78) lower femoral neck Z scores (N=283). Adjustments for size attenuated the differences, but only partially (IV). Conclusions: These results imply that those born at VLBW, although mostly healthy as young adults, already bear several risk factors for chronic adult disease. The significantly higher fasting insulin level in adults with VLBW suggests increased insulin resistance. The higher blood pressure in young adults born at VLBW may indicate they later are at risk for hypertension, although their unaffected endothelial function may be evidence for some form of protection from cardiovascular disease. Lower bone mineral density around the age of peak bone mass may suggest increased risk for later osteoporotic fractures. Because cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis are frequent, and their prevention is relatively cheap and safe, one should focus on prevention now. When initiated early, preventive measures are likely to have sufficient time to be effective in preventing or postponing the onset of chronic disease.

Flood risk management: What are the main drivers of prevention?

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miRNA polymorphisms are associated with risk of developing chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) is the most frequent leukemia of adults in Western countries and shows a ~8.5-fold increased relative risk in first-degree relatives. Up to date several studies have identified low-penetrance susceptibility alleles in CLL. Nevertheless, these studies scarcely study regions that do not encode proteins such as microRNAs (miRNAs). Abnormalities in miRNAs, as altered expression patterns and mutations, have been described in CLL, suggesting their implication in the development of the disease. Polymorphisms in these miRNAs may deregulate miRNAs expression levels and affect to the miRNA function. However, despite accumulating evidence that inherited genetic variation in miRNA genes can contribute to the predisposition for CLL, the role of these in the risk of CLL has not been extensively studied. Therefore, the aim of this study was to find new genetic markers of risk to CLL. To that end, we made a systematic search for SNPs in miRNAs and miRNAs deregulated in CLL and genotyped 213 polymorphisms in 401 samples of Spanish individuals. The literature search resulted in more than 100 miRNAs deregulated in CLL and 43 polymorphisms studied in the disease. Out of 213 genotyped SNPs, 13 showed to be significantly associated with CLL risk. rs2682818 in pre-mature miR618 was the most significant result, with 0.49 fold decreased risk to CLL. Interestingly, a previous study associated this SNP with an increased risk of developing follicular lymphoma. Secondly, rs10173558 SNP in mir- 1302-4 showed the highest risk association, with a 5.24 fold increased risk, but there were no previous works studying it. Finally, rs61992671 in miR412, previously associated with CLL risk, showed also association in our sample. In conclusion, we find 13 alleles which could contribute to the risk of CLL. However, new large-scale studies including functional analyses will be needed to validate our findings.

Regulation: A Burden in Biopharmaceutical Industry? The Case of EU-Risk Management Plans

The generation of new medicinal products is both a contributor to global economic growth and a source of valuable benefits to human health. Given their direct responsibility for public health, regulatory authorities monitor closely both the development and exploitation of the underlying technologies and the products derived from them. The manner in which such regulation is implemented can result in regulators constraining or facilitating the generation of new products. This paper will study as an example the impact of EU Risk Management Plans (EU-RMPs), which have been mandatory for the approval of new medicines since 2005, on both the industry and regulatory authorities. In interviews, the responses of those who had experience of the implementation of EU-RMPs were mixed. Although the benefits of a more structured and predictable approach to the evaluation of risk were appreciated, some respondents perceived the regulation as an excessive burden on their organisations. The exploration of factors that influence how EU-RMP regulation affects individual firms provides new insights for both regulators and managers, and demonstrates one aspect of the complexity of the process by which new medicinal products are brought to market.

Regulation: A burden in biopharmaceutical industry? The case of EU-risk management plans

The generation of new medicinal products is both a contributor to global economic growth and a source of valuable benefits to human health. Given their direct responsibility for public health, regulatory authorities monitor closely both the development and exploitation of the underlying technologies and the products derived from them. The manner in which such regulation is implemented can result in regulators constraining or facilitating the generation of new products. This paper will study as an example the impact of EU Risk Management Plans (EU-RMPs), which have been mandatory for the approval of new medicines since 2005, on both the industry and regulatory authorities. In interviews, the responses of those who had experience of the implementation of EU-RMPs were mixed. Although the benefits of a more structured and predictable approach to the evaluation of risk were appreciated, some respondents perceived the regulation as an excessive burden on their organisations. The exploration of factors that influence how EU-RMP regulation affects individual firms provides new insights for both regulators and managers, and demonstrates one aspect of the complexity of the process by which new medicinal products are brought to market. © 2010 IEEE.

Neural activity associated with the passive prediction of ambiguity and risk for aversive events.

In economic decision making, outcomes are described in terms of risk (uncertain outcomes with certain probabilities) and ambiguity (uncertain outcomes with uncertain probabilities). Humans are more averse to ambiguity than to risk, with a distinct neural system suggested as mediating this effect. However, there has been no clear disambiguation of activity related to decisions themselves from perceptual processing of ambiguity. In a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiment, we contrasted ambiguity, defined as a lack of information about outcome probabilities, to risk, where outcome probabilities are known, or ignorance, where outcomes are completely unknown and unknowable. We modified previously learned pavlovian CS+ stimuli such that they became an ambiguous cue and contrasted evoked brain activity both with an unmodified predictive CS+ (risky cue), and a cue that conveyed no information about outcome probabilities (ignorance cue). Compared with risk, ambiguous cues elicited activity in posterior inferior frontal gyrus and posterior parietal cortex during outcome anticipation. Furthermore, a similar set of regions was activated when ambiguous cues were compared with ignorance cues. Thus, regions previously shown to be engaged by decisions about ambiguous rewarding outcomes are also engaged by ambiguous outcome prediction in the context of aversive outcomes. Moreover, activation in these regions was seen even when no actual decision is made. Our findings suggest that these regions subserve a general function of contextual analysis when search for hidden information during outcome anticipation is both necessary and meaningful.

Trust-Level Risk Evaluation and Risk Control Guidance in the NHS East of England

In recent years, the healthcare sector has adopted the use of operational risk assessment tools to help understand the systems issues that lead to patient safety incidents. But although these problem-focused tools have improved the ability of healthcare organizations to identify hazards, they have not translated into measurable improvements in patient safety. One possible reason for this is a lack of support for the solution-focused process of risk control. This article describes a content analysis of the risk management strategies, policies, and procedures at all acute (i.e., hospital), mental health, and ambulance trusts (health service organizations) in the East of England area of the British National Health Service. The primary goal was to determine what organizational-level guidance exists to support risk control practice. A secondary goal was to examine the risk evaluation guidance provided by these trusts. With regard to risk control, we found an almost complete lack of useful guidance to promote good practice. With regard to risk evaluation, the trusts relied exclusively on risk matrices. A number of weaknesses were found in the use of this tool, especially related to the guidance for scoring an event's likelihood. We make a number of recommendations to address these concerns. The guidance assessed provides insufficient support for risk control and risk evaluation. This may present a significant barrier to the success of risk management approaches in improving patient safety. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Breeding behavior under temporal risk of predation in male root voles (Microtus oeconomus)

We examined breeding behavior responses of male root votes (Microtus oeconomus) to temporal risk of predation by using acute and chronic exposure to predator odor. The 2 series of exposure experiments provided 2 types of temporal patterns of risk: continuous safety with a brief period of risk and Sustained risk with a brief period of safety. Male root votes that were acutely exposed to predator odor for I h suppressed their breeding behavior, but bred immediately after exposure to control odor for I h. Those chronically exposed to predator odor for 20 days maintained behavioral suppression during the 1-h period of exposure to control odor. Acutely exposed males did not change their physiological patterns of breeding, but those chronically exposed to predator odor had reduced testosterone concentration and epididymis index. Our results indicate that breeding behavior in a given situation depends on the overall patterns of risk experienced by male root votes, and the acute and chronic stress responses that affect reproduction are responsible for different behavioral responses to the 2 types of temporal patterns of risk. We also discuss the reasons for conflicting results about breeding suppression of votes between previous studies in the laboratory and the field.

Established cardiovascular disease and CVD risk factors in a primary care population of middle-aged Irish men and women

Contemporary Irish data on the prevalence of major cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are sparse. The primary aims of this study were (1) to estimate the prevalence of major cardiovascular disease risk factors, including Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, in the general population of men and women between the ages of 50 and 69 years; and (2) to estimate the proportion of individuals in this age group at high absolute risk of cardiovascular disease events on the basis of pre-existing cardiovascular disease or as defined by the Framingham equation. Participants were drawn from the practice lists of 17 general practices in Cork and Kerry using stratified random sampling. A total of 1018 people attended for screening (490 men, 48%) from 1473 who were invited, a response rate of 69.1%. Cardiovascular disease risk factors and glucose intolerance are common in the population of men and women aged between 50 and 69 years. Almost half the participants were overweight and a further quarter met current international criteria for obesity, one of the highest recorded prevalence rates for obesity in a European population sample. Forty per cent of the population reported minimal levels of physical activity and 19% were current cigarette smokers. Approximately half the sample had blood pressure readings consistent with international criteria for the diagnosis of hypertension, but only 38% of these individuals were known to be hypertensive. Eighty per cent of the population sample had a cholesterol concentration in excess of 5 mmol/l. Almost 4% of the population had Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, of whom 30% were previously undiagnosed. A total of 137 participants (13.5%) had a history or ECG findings consistent with established cardiovascular disease. Of the remaining 881 individuals in the primary prevention population, a total of 20 high-risk individuals (19 male) had a risk of a coronary heart disease event 30% over ten years according to the Framingham risk equation, giving an overall population prevalence of 2.0% (95% CI 1.3 - 3.0). At a risk level 20% over ten years, an additional 91 individuals (8.9%) were identified. Thus a total of 24.4% of the population were at risk either through pre-existing CVD (13.5%) or an estimated 10-year risk exceeding 20% according to the Framingham risk equation (10.9%). Thus a substantial proportion of middle-aged men are at high risk of CVD. The findings emphasise the scale of the CVD epidemic in Ireland and the need for ongoing monitoring of risk factors at the population level and the need to develop preventive strategies at both the clinical and societal level.

Impact of the smoke-free workplace legislation on smoking behaviour, risk perception & stigmatisation

The Republic of Ireland became the first European country to implement nationwide smoke-free workplace legislation. Aims: To determine prevalence of smoking among bar workers and estimate the impact of the smoke-free workplace legislation on their smoking behaviour to that of a comparable general population sample. To approximate the influence of tobacco control measures on risk perception of second-hand smoke (SHS) among the general population. To explore the de-normalisation of smoking behaviour and the potential increased stigmatisation of smokers and their smoking. Methods: Prevalence estimates and behavioural changes were examined among a random sample of bar workers before and 1 year after the smoke-free legislation; comparisons made with a general population sub-sample. Changes in risk knowledge related to SHS exposure were based on general population data. Qualitative interviews were conducted among a purposive sample of smokers and non-smokers four years after the implementation of the legislation. Results: Smoking prevalence was extremely high among bar workers. Smoking prevalence dropped in bar workers and significantly among the general population 1 year post ban while cigarette consumption dropped significantly among bar workers. Disparity in knowledge between smokers and non-smoker of risk associated with SHS exposure reduced. Lack of understanding of the risk of ear infections in children posed by SHS exposure was notable. Evidence for advanced de-normalisation of smoking behaviour and intensification of stigma because of the introduction of the legislation was dependent on many factors, quality of smoking facilities played a key role. Conclusions: Ireland’s smoke-free legislation was associated with a drop in prevalence and cigarette consumption. Disparity in knowledge between smokers and non-smokers of the risk posed by SHS exposure reduced however the risk of ear infections in children needs to be effectively disseminated. The proliferation of ‘good’ smoking areas may diminish the potential to reduce smoking behaviour and de-normalise smoking.

Risk management and the potential of cattle insurance in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

This study explores the role of livestock insurance to complement existing risk management strategies adopted by smallholder farmers. Using survey data, first, it provides insights into farmers’ risk perception of livestock farming, in terms of likelihood and severity of risk, attitude to risk and their determinants. Second, it examines farmers’ risk management strategies and their determinants. Third, it investigates farmers’ potential engagement with a hypothetical cattle insurance decision and their intensity of participation. Factor analysis is used to analyse risk sources and risk management, multiple regressions are used to identify the determinants; a Heckman model was used to investigate cattle insurance participation and intensity of participation. The findings show different groups of farmers display different risk attitude in their decision-making related to livestock farming. Production risk (especially livestock diseases) was perceived as the most likely and severe source of risk. Disease control was perceived as the best strategy to manage risk overall. Disease control and feed management were important strategies to mitigate the production risks. Disease control and participation on safety net program were found to be important to counter households’ financial risks. With regard to the hypothetical cattle insurance scheme, 94.38% of households were interested to participate in cattle insurance. Of those households that accepted cattle insurance, 77.38% of the households were willing to pay the benchmark annual premium of 4% of the animal value while for the remaining households this was not affordable. The average number of cattle that farmers were willing to insure was 2.71 at this benchmark. Results revealed that income (log income) and education levels influenced positively and significantly farmers’ participation in cattle insurance and the number of cattle to insure. The findings prompt policy makers to consider livestock insurance as a complement to existing risk management strategies to reduce poverty in the long-run.

Importance of prostate volume in the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculators: results from the prostate biopsy collaborative group.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the predictive performance and potential clinical usefulness of risk calculators of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC RC) with and without information on prostate volume. METHODS: We studied 6 cohorts (5 European and 1 US) with a total of 15,300 men, all biopsied and with pre-biopsy TRUS measurements of prostate volume. Volume was categorized into 3 categories (25, 40, and 60 cc), to reflect use of digital rectal examination (DRE) for volume assessment. Risks of prostate cancer were calculated according to a ERSPC DRE-based RC (including PSA, DRE, prior biopsy, and prostate volume) and a PSA + DRE model (including PSA, DRE, and prior biopsy). Missing data on prostate volume were completed by single imputation. Risk predictions were evaluated with respect to calibration (graphically), discrimination (AUC curve), and clinical usefulness (net benefit, graphically assessed in decision curves). RESULTS: The AUCs of the ERSPC DRE-based RC ranged from 0.61 to 0.77 and were substantially larger than the AUCs of a model based on only PSA + DRE (ranging from 0.56 to 0.72) in each of the 6 cohorts. The ERSPC DRE-based RC provided net benefit over performing a prostate biopsy on the basis of PSA and DRE outcome in five of the six cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying men at increased risk for having a biopsy detectable prostate cancer should consider multiple factors, including an estimate of prostate volume.

Clinical utility of a Web-enabled risk-assessment and clinical decision support program.

PURPOSE: Risk-stratified guidelines can improve quality of care and cost-effectiveness, but their uptake in primary care has been limited. MeTree, a Web-based, patient-facing risk-assessment and clinical decision support tool, is designed to facilitate uptake of risk-stratified guidelines. METHODS: A hybrid implementation-effectiveness trial of three clinics (two intervention, one control). PARTICIPANTS: consentable nonadopted adults with upcoming appointments. PRIMARY OUTCOME: agreement between patient risk level and risk management for those meeting evidence-based criteria for increased-risk risk-management strategies (increased risk) and those who do not (average risk) before MeTree and after. MEASURES: chart abstraction was used to identify risk management related to colon, breast, and ovarian cancer, hereditary cancer, and thrombosis. RESULTS: Participants = 488, female = 284 (58.2%), white = 411 (85.7%), mean age = 58.7 (SD = 12.3). Agreement between risk management and risk level for all conditions for each participant, except for colon cancer, which was limited to those <50 years of age, was (i) 1.1% (N = 2/174) for the increased-risk group before MeTree and 16.1% (N = 28/174) after and (ii) 99.2% (N = 2,125/2,142) for the average-risk group before MeTree and 99.5% (N = 2,131/2,142) after. Of those receiving increased-risk risk-management strategies at baseline, 10.5% (N = 2/19) met criteria for increased risk. After MeTree, 80.7% (N = 46/57) met criteria. CONCLUSION: MeTree integration into primary care can improve uptake of risk-stratified guidelines and potentially reduce "overuse" and "underuse" of increased-risk services.Genet Med 18 10, 1020-1028.

Risikowahrnehmung und psychologische Reaktionen in öffentlichen Krisensituationen am Beispiel von Terrorattentaten / Risk perception and psychological reactions in public crisis situations using the example of terror attacks

The reactions to the 9/11 terror attacks were immense in the western population. In the current review, the impact of terror attacks is presented with surveys, clinical interviews, and scientific polls, which were identified in a comprehensive literature search. Results show that the fear of further terror attacks is comparatively overestimated in the population and is associated with numerous psychological consequences and reactions. The overestimation of the probability of further terror attacks is related among other reasons to its unique features and its strong representation in the media. Several independent studies proved that the number of stress symptoms and psychiatric diagnoses is associated with a high risk perception in relation to terror attacks. This was not only the case for victims of terror attacks, but also for people indirectly exposed to the terror attacks. In addition, there is evidence that the number of the stress symptoms correlate with the duration of TV consumption of new findings about terror attempts. Methodologically, there is a critical lack of more in-depth analyses to explain the development of risk perceptions and its influence on mental and physical health. Because of the international importance and cross-cultural differences, an international standardization of research is desirable. [In German] Die Reaktionen auf die Terrorattentate vom 9. September 2001 in New York waren in der westlichen Bevölkerung immens. In der vorliegenden Übersichtsarbeit werden die Auswirkungen von Terrorattentaten durch Einbeziehung bevölkerungsrepräsentativer Untersuchungen, Surveys, klinischer Interviews und Einstellungsbefragungen dargestellt, die über eine deskriptive Literaturrecherche ermittelt wurden. Als Ergebnis des Reviews zeigt sich, dass die Angst vor weiteren Terrorattentaten in der Bevölkerung vergleichsweise hoch und mit zahlreichen psychologischen Folgen und Reaktionen assoziiert ist. Die Einschätzung der Auftretenswahrscheinlichkeit eines Terrorattentats hängt unter anderem mit den besonderen Charakteristika und der hohen medialen Präsenz des Themas zusammen. Die Anzahl der Stresssymptome bis hin zu psychiatrischen Diagnosen erwies sich in mehreren unabhängigen Untersuchungen mit einer hohen Risikowahrnehmung assoziiert. Dies ließ sich nicht nur bei den Opfern von Terrorattentaten, sondern auch bei indirekt Betroffenen zeigen. Darüber hinaus gibt es mehrfache Belege dafür, dass die Anzahl der Stresssymptome mit der Dauer des TV-Konsums über Neuigkeiten zu Terrorattentaten zusammenhing. Als methodische Kritik ist an den gegenwärtigen Untersuchungsszenarien einzuwenden, dass es derzeit keine tiefer gehenden Analysen zur Entwicklung der Risikowahrnehmung und zu ihrem Einfluss auf die Gesundheit gibt. Aufgrund der internationalen Bedeutung des Themas und der interkulturellen Unterschiede im Umgang mit Krisensituationen ist eine internationale Standardisierung von Untersuchungszugängen wünschenswert.

Comparative analysis of corporate risk management practices in Croatian and Slovenian companies

The paper explores differences as well as commonalities in corporate risk management practices and risk exposures in the large non-financial Slovenian and Croatian companies. Comparative analysis of survey results have revealed that the majority of analysed companies in both Croatia and Slovenia are using some form of risk management to manage interest-rate, foreign exchange, or commodity price risk. Regarding the intensity of influence of financial risks on the performance of the analysed companies, the results have shown that the price risk has the highest influence among the Slovenian as well as the Croatian companies. Croatian companies are more affected by currency risk than the Slovenian companies, while the interest-rate risk has been ranged as less important in comparison with commodity price and currency risks. The survey’s results have clearly indicated that Croatian and Slovenian non-financial companies manage financial risks primarily with simple risk management instruments such as natural hedging. In the case of derivatives use, forwards and swaps are by far the most important instruments in both countries, but futures as representatives of standardised derivatives and structured derivatives are more important in the Slovenian than in the Croatian companies.