Statistical modelling of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Extreme rainfall events have triggered a significant number of flash floods in Madeira Island along its past and recent history. Madeira is a volcanic island where the spatial rainfall distribution is strongly affected by its rugged topography. In this thesis, annual maximum of daily rainfall data from 25 rain gauge stations located in Madeira Island were modelled by the generalised extreme value distribution. Also, the hypothesis of a Gumbel distribution was tested by two methods and the existence of a linear trend in both distributions parameters was analysed. Estimates for the 50– and 100–year return levels were also obtained. Still in an univariate context, the assumption that a distribution function belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution for monthly maximum rainfall data was tested for the rainy season. The available data was then analysed in order to find the most suitable domain of attraction for the sampled distribution. In a different approach, a search for thresholds was also performed for daily rainfall values through a graphical analysis. In a multivariate context, a study was made on the dependence between extreme rainfall values from the considered stations based on Kendall’s τ measure. This study suggests the influence of factors such as altitude, slope orientation, distance between stations and their proximity of the sea on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall. Groups of three pairwise associated stations were also obtained and an adjustment was made to a family of extreme value copulas involving the Marshall–Olkin family, whose parameters can be written as a function of Kendall’s τ association measures of the obtained pairs.

Three-Dimensional Modelling of Honeybee Venom Allergenic Proteases: Relation to Allergenicity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Structural modelling of Eu3+-based siloxane-poly( oxyethylene) nanohybrids

The modelling of the local structure of sol-gel derived Eu3+-based organic/inorganic hybrids is reported, based on Small-Angle X-ray Scattering (SAXS), photoluminescence and mid-infrared spectroscopy. The hybrid matrix of these organically modified silicates, classed as di-ureasils and termed U(2000) and U(600), is formed by poly( oxyethylene) (POE) chains of variable length grafted to siloxane domains by means of urea cross-linkages. Europium triflate, Eu(CF3SO3)(3), was incorporated in the two di-ureasil matrices with compositions 400 greater than or equal ton greater than or equal to 10, n is the molar ratio of ether oxygens per Eu3+. The SAXS data for undoped hybrids (n=infinity) show the presence of a well-defined peak attributed to the existence of a liquid-like spatial correlation of siloxane rich domains embedded in the polymer matrix and located at the ends of the organic segments. The obtained siloxane particle gyration radius Rg(1) is around 5 Angstrom (error within 10%), whereas the interparticle distance d is 25 +/-2 Angstrom and 40 +/-2 Angstrom, for U(600) and U(2000), respectively. For the Eu3+-based nanocomposites the formation of a two-level hierarchical local structure is discerned. The primary level is constituted by strongly spatially correlated siloxane particles of gyration radius Rg(1) (4-6 and 3-8 Angstrom, errors within 5%, for U(600())n Eu(CF3SO3)(3), 200 greater than or equal ton greater than or equal to 40, and U(2000)(n)Eu(CF3SO3)(3), 400 greater than or equal ton greater than or equal to 40, respectively) forming large clusters of gyration radius Rg(2) (approximate to 75 +/- 10 Angstrom). The local coordination of Eu3+ in both di-ureasil series is described combining the SAXS, photoluminescence and mid-infrared results. In the di-ureasils containing long polymer chains, U(2000)(n)Eu(CF3SO3)(3), the cations interact exclusively with the carbonyl oxygens atoms of the urea bridges at the siloxane-POE interface. In the hybrids containing shorter chains, U(600)(n)Eu(CF3SO3)(3) with n ranging from 200 to 60, the Eu3+ ions interact solely with the ether-type oxygens of the polymer chains. Nevertheless, in this latter family of hybrids a distinct Eu3+ local site environment involving the urea cross-linkages is detected when the europium content is increased up to n=40.

Stochastic field processes in the mathematical modelling of damped transmission line vibrations

Wind-excited vibrations in the frequency range of 10 to 50 Hz due to vortex shedding often cause fatigue failures in the cables of overhead transmission lines. Damping devices, such as the Stockbridge dampers, have been in use for a long time for supressing these vibrations. The dampers are conveniently modelled by means of their driving point impedance, measured in the lab over the frequency range under consideration. The cables can be modelled as strings with additional small bending stiffness. The main problem in modelling the vibrations does however lay in the aerodynamic forces, which usually are approximated by the forces acting on a rigid cylinder in planar flow. In the present paper, the wind forces are represented by stochastic processes with arbitrary crosscorrelation in space; the case of a Kármán vortex street on a rigid cylinder in planar flow is contained as a limit case in this approach. The authors believe that this new view of the problem may yield useful results, particularly also concerning the reliability of the lines and the probability of fatigue damages. © 1987.

Modelling of fatigue crack growth following overloads

In variable-amplitude loading there are interaction effects between the loading history and the crack propagation rate. The most important of these effects is the retardation in the crack propagation, which may raise the life of the cracked structureconsiderably. The main objective of this research is to analyse and quantify the retardation of crack propagation in a thin plate of the high-resistance aluminium alloy 2024-T3, comparing the results obtained from the mathematical models proposed to account for the retardation effect. The specimens were tested under high-low loading sequences, for different crack sizes and overload ratios. A simplified model was developed, based on crack closure theory, that could represent the crack behaviour during retardation very well. © 1991.

Modelling of the influence of the layer pollution thickness in high voltage polluted insulators

An experimental model and a mathematical model with the introduction of a ramp in the channel of Obenaus model are presented. The aim is to present a better reproduction of the real layer pollution deposited on the HV insulators. This better reproduction is obtained from two types of thickness variation: the introduction of a ramp (soft variation) and the introduction of a step (sudden variation). The computational simulations and the experimental data suggest that the introduction of the ramp is the better reproduction of the layer pollution. The ramp approximates to the real layer pollution more than the step.

Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modelling of intravenous, intramuscular and subcutaneous buprenorphine in conscious cats

Objective To describe simultaneous pharmacokinetics (PK) and thermal antinociception after intravenous (IV), intramuscular (IM) and subcutaneous (SC) buprenorphine in cats. Study design Randomized, prospective, blinded, three period crossover experiment. Animals Six healthy adult cats weighing 4.1±0.5kg. Methods Buprenorphine (0.02mgkg-1) was administered IV, IM or SC. Thermal threshold (TT) testing and blood collection were conducted simultaneously at baseline and at predetermined time points up to 24hours after administration. Buprenorphine plasma concentrations were determined by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. TT was analyzed using anova (p<0.05). A pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model of the IV data was described using a model combining biophase equilibration and receptor association-dissociation kinetics. Results TT increased above baseline from 15 to 480minutes and at 30 and 60minutes after IV and IM administration, respectively (p<0.05). Maximum increase in TT (mean±SD) was 9.3±4.9°C at 60minutes (IV), 4.6±2.8°C at 45minutes (IM) and 1.9±1.9°C at 60minutes (SC). TT was significantly higher at 15, 60, 120 and 180minutes, and at 15, 30, 45, 60 and 120minutes after IV administration compared to IM and SC, respectively. IV and IM buprenorphine concentration-time data decreased curvilinearly. SC PK could not be modeled due to erratic absorption and disposition. IV buprenorphine disposition was similar to published data. The PK-PD model showed an onset delay mainly attributable to slow biophase equilibration (t1/2ke0=47.4minutes) and receptor binding (kon=0.011mL ng-1minute-1). Persistence of thermal antinociception was due to slow receptor dissociation (t1/2koff=18.2minutes). Conclusions and clinical relevance IV and IM data followed classical disposition and elimination in most cats. Plasma concentrations after IV administration were associated with antinociceptive effect in a PK-PD model including negative hysteresis. At the doses administered, the IV route should be preferred over the IM and SC routes when buprenorphine is administered to cats. © 2012 Association of Veterinary Anaesthetists and the American College of Veterinary Anesthesiologists.

Modelling of the nitrogen deposition and dietary lysine requirements of Redbro broilers

The aim of this study was to determine the coefficients of the Goettingen model for Redbro birds and estimate the digestible lysine requirements. To determine the model parameters, three nitrogen balance trials were performed in Periods I (14-28 days), II (42-56 days) and III (70-84 days), using 42 birds per trial. The birds were individually housed and subjected to six diets with increasing levels of nitrogen, with lysine as the limiting amino acid (deficient by 20% in relation to other amino acids). Dietary nitrogen concentrations were 8, 16, 24, 32, 40 and 48 g/kg. A control diet was added to confirm lysine as the first limiting amino acid. Nitrogen balance trials were divided into 5 days of adaptation and two periods of excreta collection, each one of 5 days. The response of the birds to a control diet confirmed that lysine was the first limiting amino acid. The adjustment of the exponential functions between nitrogen retention or excretion and nitrogen intake allowed estimation of parameters of the Goettingen model. The maximum potential for nitrogen retention was 3276, 2585 and 2603 mg/BWkg0.67.day, nitrogen maintenance requirement was 225, 135 and 122 mg/BWkg0.67.day and efficiency of nitrogen utilisation was 313 x 10(-6), 406 x 10(-6) and 415 x 10(-6) in the phases of 14-28, 42-56 and 70-84 days. The digestible lysine intake for Periods I, II and III, based on 60% of the maximum potential for nitrogen retention, was 711, 989 and 1272 mg/day (1.225%, 1.137% and 1.09% of lysine in the diet for a daily feed intake of 58, 87 and 117 g/day), respectively.

Citrus greening disease investigation using micro synchrotron radiation X-ray fluorescence in association with soft independent modelling of class analogy (SIMCA)

This study describes the use of micro synchrotron radiation X-ray fluorescence (µSR-XRF) to investigate citrus greening disease in sweet orange (Citrus sinensis) plants. An experiment using healthy plants as control and plants of the same variety infected with Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas) was performed to verify variations of the mineral composition of citrus leaves. A µSR-XRF system using the D09B X-ray fluorescence beam line at the Brazilian Synchrotron Light Source (LNLS, Campinas, São Paulo State) was employed for this purpose. The data were analyzed using a chemometric tool called soft independent modelling of class analogy (SIMCA). The promising results from SIMCA models reinforce the evidence that plants infected by citrus greening (both asymptomatic and symptomatic) undergo alterations in their micro- and macronutrient compositions.

Probabilistic failure modelling of reinforced concrete structures subjected to chloride penetration

Structural durability is an important criterion that must be evaluated for every type of structure. Concerning reinforced concrete members, chloride diffusion process is widely used to evaluate durability, especially when these structures are constructed in aggressive atmospheres. The chloride ingress triggers the corrosion of reinforcements; therefore, by modelling this phenomenon, the corrosion process can be better evaluated as well as the structural durability. The corrosion begins when a threshold level of chloride concentration is reached at the steel bars of reinforcements. Despite the robustness of several models proposed in literature, deterministic approaches fail to predict accurately the corrosion time initiation due the inherent randomness observed in this process. In this regard, structural durability can be more realistically represented using probabilistic approaches. This paper addresses the analyses of probabilistic corrosion time initiation in reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride penetration. The chloride penetration is modelled using the Fick's diffusion law. This law simulates the chloride diffusion process considering time-dependent effects. The probability of failure is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation and the first order reliability method, with a direct coupling approach. Some examples are considered in order to study these phenomena. Moreover, a simplified method is proposed to determine optimal values for concrete cover.

High-resolution modelling of the Canary Basin oceanic circulation

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