Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Value-mapping inputs

This research aims to increase understanding of and delivery to qualitative (or intangible) outcomes and impacts of major economic infrastructure projects (i.e. bridges, roads, water infrastructure and the like), and the role of stakeholder engagement in this process.-------- Recent doctoral research completed at the Queensland University of Technology by the author investigated how the principles of corporate responsibility are applied in the construction sector. This related specifically to major economic infrastructure projects (hereafter referred to as major projects), with particular regard to urban transportation projects. One outcome of this past research was a value-mapping framework which enables organisations to track project outcomes to pre-existing corporate objectives, and report on these throughout the project life-cycle. Two recommendations for future research from that work formed the basis for this current research: • How can qualitative measurables be better integrated into decision-making on major economic infrastructure projects? • How can non-contractual stakeholders be more effectively engaged with on these projects? The link between these two areas may relate to the stakeholders’ role in qualitative indicator identification and measurement. This is a key point for future investigation.---------- The aim of this research is thus to further investigate these two areas, with the intent of (i) better defining the research direction; (ii) identifying potential research partners; and (iii) identify possible sources of future funding.

An ESR study of irradiated poly(tetrafluoroethylene-co-perfluoropropyl vinyl ether) (PFA)

Poly(tetrafluoroethylene-co-perfluoropropyl vinyl ether) (PFA) with 2 mol% perfluoropropyl vinyl ether (PPVE) was exposed to γ-irradiation in vacuum at both 77 K and room temperature and the ESR spectra recorded. Both the main chain, CF2–C.F–CF2, and end chain, CF2C.F2 radicals were identified at both temperatures and their thermal stabilities measured. No radicals unique to the radiolytic cleavage at the PPVE units were observed at room temperature, either due to the low concentration of the comonomer or β-scission to form a chain end radical and a non-radical species. G-values for radical formation at room temperature and 77 K were found to be 0.93 and 0.16, respectively.

Service identification through value chain analysis and prioritization

In a resource constrained business world, strategic choices must be made on process improvement and service delivery. There are calls for more agile forms of enterprises and much effort is being directed at moving organizations from a complex landscape of disparate application systems to that of an integrated and flexible enterprise accessing complex systems landscapes through service oriented architecture (SOA). This paper describes the deconstruction of an enterprise into business services using value chain analysis as each element in the value chain can be rendered as a business service in the SOA. These business services are explicitly linked to the attainment of specific organizational strategies and their contribution to the attainment of strategy is assessed and recorded. This contribution is then used to provide a rank order of business service to strategy. This information facilitates executive decision making on which business service to develop into the SOA. The paper describes an application of this Critical Service Identification Methodology (CSIM) to a case study.

Formation of thermodynamically unstable calcium oxalate dihydrate in sugar mill evaporators

Calcium oxalate (CaOX) is the most intractable scale component to remove in sugar mill evaporators by either mechanical or chemical means. The operating conditions of sugar mill evaporators should preferentially favour the formation of the thermodynamically stable calcium oxalate monohydrate (COM), yet analysis of scale deposit from different sugar factories have shown that calcium oxalate dihydrate (COD) is usually the predominant phase, and in some cases is the only hydrate formed. The effects of trans-aconitic, succinic and acetic acids, all of which are present in sugarcane juice, and ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid disodium salt (EDTA) on the growth of CaOX crystals have been examined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). trans-Aconitic acid, which constitutes two-thirds of the organic acid component in sugarcane juice, in the presence of sugar resulted in the formation of COD and COM in a 3:1 ratio. EDTA was the most effective acid to promote the formation of COD followed by trans-aconitic acid, then acetic acid and lastly succinic acid.

The impact of brand and product placements in electronic games

In an environment where it has become increasingly difficult to attract consumer attention, marketers have begun to explore alternative forms of marketing communication. One such form that has emerged is product placement, which has more recently appeared in electronic games. Given changes in media consumption and the growth of the games industry, it is not surprising that games are being exploited as a medium for promotional content. Other market developments are also facilitating and encouraging their use, in terms of both the insertion of brand messages into video games and the creation of brand-centred environments, labelled ‘advergames’. However, while there is much speculation concerning the beneficial outcomes for marketers, there remains a lack of academic work in this area and little empirical evidence of the actual effects of this form of promotion on game players. Only a handful of studies are evident in the literature, which have explored the influence of game placements on consumers. The majority have studied their effect on brand awareness, largely demonstrating that players can recall placed brands. Further, most research conducted to date has focused on computer and online games, but consoles represent the dominant platform for play (Taub, 2004). Finally, advergames have largely been neglected, particularly those in a console format. Widening the gap in the literature is the fact that insufficient academic attention has been given to product placement as a marketing communication strategy overall, and to games in general. The unique nature of the strategy also makes it difficult to apply existing literature to this context. To address a significant need for information in both the academic and business domains, the current research investigates the effects of brand and product placements in video games and advergames on consumer attitude to the brand and corporate image. It was conducted in two stages. Stage one represents a pilot study. It explored the effects of use simulated and peripheral placements in video games on players’ and observers’ attitudinal responses, and whether these are influenced by involvement with a product category or skill level in the game. The ability of gamers to recall placed brands was also examined. A laboratory experiment was employed with a small sample of sixty adult subjects drawn from an Australian east-coast university, some of who were exposed to a console video game on a television set. The major finding of study one is that placements in a video game have no effect on gamers’ attitudes, but they are recalled. For stage two of the research, a field experiment was conducted with a large, random sample of 350 student respondents to investigate the effects on players of brand and product placements in handheld video games and advergames. The constructs of brand attitude and corporate image were again tested, along with several potential confounds. Consistent with the pilot, the results demonstrate that product placement in electronic games has no effect on players’ brand attitudes or corporate image, even when allowing for their involvement with the product category, skill level in the game, or skill level in relation to the medium. Age and gender also have no impact. However, the more interactive a player perceives the game to be, the higher their attitude to the placed brand and corporate image of the brand manufacturer. In other words, when controlling for perceived interactivity, players experienced more favourable attitudes, but the effect was so weak it probably lacks practical significance. It is suggested that this result can be explained by the existence of excitation transfer, rather than any processing of placed brands. The current research provides strong, empirical evidence that brand and product placements in games do not produce strong attitudinal responses. It appears that the nature of the game medium, game playing experience and product placement impose constraints on gamer motivation, opportunity and ability to process these messages, thereby precluding their impact on attitude to the brand and corporate image. Since this is the first study to investigate the ability of video game and advergame placements to facilitate these deeper consumer responses, further research across different contexts is warranted. Nevertheless, the findings have important theoretical and managerial implications. This investigation makes a number of valuable contributions. First, it is relevant to current marketing practice and presents findings that can help guide promotional strategy decisions. It also presents a comprehensive review of the games industry and associated activities in the marketplace, relevant for marketing practitioners. Theoretically, it contributes new knowledge concerning product placement, including how it should be defined, its classification within the existing communications framework, its dimensions and effects. This is extended to include brand-centred entertainment. The thesis also presents the most comprehensive analysis available in the literature of how placements appear in games. In the consumer behaviour discipline, the research builds on theory concerning attitude formation, through application of MacInnis and Jaworski’s (1989) Integrative Attitude Formation Model. With regards to the games literature, the thesis provides a structured framework for the comparison of games with different media types; it advances understanding of the game medium, its characteristics and the game playing experience; and provides insight into console and handheld games specifically, as well as interactive environments generally. This study is the first to test the effects of interactivity in a game environment, and presents a modified scale that can be used as part of future research. Methodologically, it addresses the limitations of prior research through execution of a field experiment and observation with a large sample, making this the largest study of product placement in games available in the literature. Finally, the current thesis offers comprehensive recommendations that will provide structure and direction for future study in this important field.

Compliance with international financial reporting standards (IFRS) and the value relevance of accounting information in emerging stock markets : evidence from Kuwait

Since the 1960s, the value relevance of accounting information has been an important topic in accounting research. The value relevance research provides evidence as to whether accounting numbers relate to corporate value in a predicted manner (Beaver, 2002). Such research is not only important for investors but also provides useful insights into accounting reporting effectiveness for standard setters and other users. Both the quality of accounting standards used and the effectiveness associated with implementing these standards are fundamental prerequisites for high value relevance (Hellstrom, 2006). However, while the literature comprehensively documents the value relevance of accounting information in developed markets, little attention has been given to emerging markets where the quality of accounting standards and their enforcement are questionable. Moreover, there is currently no known research that explores the association between level of compliance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and the value relevance of accounting information. Motivated by the lack of research on the value relevance of accounting information in emerging markets and the unique institutional setting in Kuwait, this study has three objectives. First, it investigates the extent of compliance with IFRS with respect to firms listed on the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE). Second, it examines the value relevance of accounting information produced by KSE-listed firms over the 1995 to 2006 period. The third objective links the first two and explores the association between the level of compliance with IFRS and the value relevance of accounting information to market participants. Since it is among the first countries to adopt IFRS, Kuwait provides an ideal setting in which to explore these objectives. In addition, the Kuwaiti accounting environment provides an interesting regulatory context in which each KSE-listed firm is required to appoint at least two external auditors from separate auditing firms. Based on the research objectives, five research questions (RQs) are addressed. RQ1 and RQ2 aim to determine the extent to which KSE-listed firms comply with IFRS and factors contributing to variations in compliance levels. These factors include firm attributes (firm age, leverage, size, profitability, liquidity), the number of brand name (Big-4) auditing firms auditing a firm’s financial statements, and industry categorization. RQ3 and RQ4 address the value relevance of IFRS-based financial statements to investors. RQ5 addresses whether the level of compliance with IFRS contributes to the value relevance of accounting information provided to investors. Based on the potential improvement in value relevance from adopting and complying with IFRS, it is predicted that the higher the level of compliance with IFRS, the greater the value relevance of book values and earnings. The research design of the study consists of two parts. First, in accordance with prior disclosure research, the level of compliance with mandatory IFRS is examined using a disclosure index. Second, the value relevance of financial statement information, specifically, earnings and book value, is examined empirically using two valuation models: price and returns models. The combined empirical evidence that results from the application of both models provides comprehensive insights into value relevance of accounting information in an emerging market setting. Consistent with expectations, the results show the average level of compliance with IFRS mandatory disclosures for all KSE-listed firms in 2006 was 72.6 percent; thus, indicating KSE-listed firms generally did not fully comply with all requirements. Significant variations in the extent of compliance are observed among firms and across accounting standards. As predicted, older, highly leveraged, larger, and profitable KSE-listed firms are more likely to comply with IFRS required disclosures. Interestingly, significant differences in the level of compliance are observed across the three possible auditor combinations of two Big-4, two non-Big 4, and mixed audit firm types. The results for the price and returns models provide evidence that earnings and book values are significant factors in the valuation of KSE-listed firms during the 1995 to 2006 period. However, the results show that the value relevance of earnings and book values decreased significantly during that period, suggesting that investors rely less on financial statements, possibly due to the increase in the available non-financial statement sources. Notwithstanding this decline, a significant association is observed between the level of compliance with IFRS and the value relevance of earnings and book value to KSE investors. The findings make several important contributions. First, they raise concerns about the effectiveness of the regulatory body that oversees compliance with IFRS in Kuwait. Second, they challenge the effectiveness of the two-auditor requirement in promoting compliance with regulations as well as the associated cost-benefit of this requirement for firms. Third, they provide the first known empirical evidence linking the level of IFRS compliance with the value relevance of financial statement information. Finally, the findings are relevant for standard setters and for their current review of KSE regulations. In particular, they highlight the importance of establishing and maintaining adequate monitoring and enforcement mechanisms to ensure compliance with accounting standards. In addition, the finding that stricter compliance with IFRS improves the value relevance of accounting information highlights the importance of full compliance with IFRS and not just mere adoption.