Validation Française de l’Échelle de la Personnalité Temporelle (French Validation of the Time Personality Indicator)

RÉSUMÉ Certains auteurs ont développé un intérêt pour la compréhension des aptitudes associées à la gestion du temps. Ainsi, plusieurs définitions théoriques ont été proposées afin de mieux cerner ce concept et une multitude de questionnaires a été développée afin de le mesurer. La présente étude visait à valider la traduction française d’un de ces outils, soit le Time Personality Indicator (TPI). Des analyses exploratoires et confirmatoires ont été effectuées sur l’ensemble des données recueillies auprès de 1 267 étudiants et employés de l’Université Laval ayant complété la version française du TPI ainsi que d’autres mesures de la personnalité. Les résultats ont révélé qu’une solution à huit facteurs permet de mieux décrire les données de l’échantillon. La discussion présente les raisons pour lesquelles la version française du TPI est valide, identifie certaines limites de la présente étude et souligne l’utilité de cet outil pour la recherche sur la gestion du temps. (ABSTRACT: Numerous authors have developed an interest towards the understanding of the abilities related to time management. As a consequence, multiple theoretical definitions have been proposed to explain time management. Likewise, several questionnaires have been developed in order to measure this concept. The aim of this study was to validate a French version of one of these tools, namely the Time Personality Indicator (TPI). The French version of the TPI and other personality questionnaires were completed by 1267 students and employees of Université Laval. The statistical approach used included exploratory and confirmatory analyses. Results revealed that an eight factor model provided a better adjustment to the data. The discussion provides arguments supporting the validity of the French version of the TPI and underlines the importance of such a tool for the research on time management)

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed timevarying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible realtime term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible real-time term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Pricing derivatives with stochastic volatility

This Ph.D. thesis contains 4 essays in mathematical finance with a focus on pricing Asian option (Chapter 4), pricing futures and futures option (Chapter 5 and Chapter 6) and time dependent volatility in futures option (Chapter 7). In Chapter 4, the applicability of the Albrecher et al.(2005)'s comonotonicity approach was investigated in the context of various benchmark models for equities and com- modities. Instead of classical Levy models as in Albrecher et al.(2005), the focus is the Heston stochastic volatility model, the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model and the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model. It is shown that the method delivers rather tight upper bounds for the prices of Asian Options in these models and as a by-product delivers super-hedging strategies which can be easily implemented. In Chapter 5, two types of three-factor models were studied to give the value of com- modities futures contracts, which allow volatility to be stochastic. Both these two models have closed-form solutions for futures contracts price. However, it is shown that Model 2 is better than Model 1 theoretically and also performs very well empiri- cally. Moreover, Model 2 can easily be implemented in practice. In comparison to the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model, it is shown that Model 2 has its unique advantages; hence, it is also a good choice to price the value of commodity futures contracts. Fur- thermore, if these two models are used at the same time, a more accurate price for commodity futures contracts can be obtained in most situations. In Chapter 6, the applicability of the asymptotic approach developed in Fouque et al.(2000b) was investigated for pricing commodity futures options in a Schwartz (1997) multi-factor model, featuring both stochastic convenience yield and stochastic volatility. It is shown that the zero-order term in the expansion coincides with the Schwartz (1997) two-factor term, with averaged volatility, and an explicit expression for the first-order correction term is provided. With empirical data from the natural gas futures market, it is also demonstrated that a significantly better calibration can be achieved by using the correction term as compared to the standard Schwartz (1997) two-factor expression, at virtually no extra effort. In Chapter 7, a new pricing formula is derived for futures options in the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model with time dependent spot volatility. The pricing formula can also be used to find the result of the time dependent spot volatility with futures options prices in the market. Furthermore, the limitations of the method that is used to find the time dependent spot volatility will be explained, and it is also shown how to make sure of its accuracy.

Gender and East Asian Welfare States: from Confucianism to Gender Equality

How can we understand the gender logic underpinning the welfare states/systems of East Asia? Does the comparative literature, which has largely been concerned with western Welfare states, whether in The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism (Esping-Andersen 1990), or in gender-based analysis of the male breadwinner model (Lewis 1992, 2001, 2006), have anything to offer in understanding the gender assumptions underpinning East Asian welfare states? Are the welfare systems of East Asian countries distinctive, with Confucian assumptions hidden beneath the surface commitment to gender equality? We will use the (mainly western) comparative literature, but argue that Confucian influences remain important, with strong assumptions of family, market and voluntary sector responsibility rather than state responsibility, strong expectations of women’s obligations, without compensating rights, a hierarchy of gender and age, and a highly distinctive, vertical family structure, in which women are subject to parents-in-law. In rapidly changing economies, these social characteristics are changing too. But they still put powerful pressures on women to conform to expectations about care, while weakening their rights to security and support. Nowhere do welfare states’ promises bring gender equality in practice. Even in Scandinavian countries women earn less, care more, and have less power than men. We shall compare East Asian countries (Japan, Korea, Taiwan where possible) with some Western ones, to argue that some major comparative data (e.g. OECD) show the extreme situation of women in these countries. Some fine new qualitative studies give us a close insight into the experience of mothers, including lone and married mothers, which help us to understand how far the gender assumptions of welfare states are from Scandinavia’s dual earner model. There are signs of change in society as well as in economy, and room for optimism that women’s involvement in social movements and academic enquiry may be challenging Confucian gender hierarchies.

Empenhamento(s) organizacional(is): Dois laços afectivos, dois instrumentais, um normativo e um de ausência

Este artigo visa testar um hexa-modelo dimensional do empenhamento organizacional sugerido em pesquisas anteriores de Rego (2002b, 2003). O modelo difere do esquema tri-dimensional mais comum (afectivo, normativo e instrumental) no que concerne a três aspectos: a) a faceta afectiva é desmembrada em duas (empenhamento afectivo; futuro comum); b) a faceta instrumental é dividida nas facetas “escassez de alternativas” e “sacrifícios elevados”; c) é sugerida uma nova dimensão, designada “ausência psicológica” e que representa o “grau zero” do empenhamento. A amostra é constituída por 366 indivíduos, com actividades profissionais bastante distintas. Análises factoriais confirmatórias sugerem que o modelo de seis dimensões se ajusta satisfatoriamente aos dados, embora os modelos de quatro e cinco dimensões denotem igualmente boas qualidades psicométricas.

Influence des traits et troubles de personnalité sur l’intégration au travail de personnes aux prises avec un trouble mental grave

Bien que le travail soit bénéfique et souhaité par une majorité de personnes aux prises avec un trouble mental grave (TMG), les études réalisées auprès de cette clientèle montrent des taux d’emploi d’environ 10 à 20%. Parmi les services visant le retour au travail, les programmes de soutien à l’emploi (PSE) se sont montrés les plus efficaces avec des taux de placement en emploi standard oscillant entre 50 et 60%, sans toutefois garantir le maintien en emploi. Plusieurs études ont tenté de cerner les déterminants de l’obtention et du maintien en emploi chez cette population sans toutefois s’intéresser à la personnalité, et ce, bien qu’elle soit reconnue depuis toujours comme un déterminant important du fonctionnement des individus. De plus, peu de questionnaires d’évaluation de la personnalité selon le modèle de la personnalité en cinq facteurs (FFM) ont été utilisés auprès d’une clientèle avec un TMG et ceux-ci ont montré des propriétés psychométriques ne respectant pas des normes reconnues et acceptées. Cette thèse porte sur les liens entre la personnalité et l’intégration au travail chez les personnes avec un TMG. La première partie vise la validation d’un outil de mesure de la personnalité selon le FFM afin de répondre aux objectifs de la deuxième partie de la thèse. À cet effet, deux échantillons ont été recrutés, soit 259 étudiants universitaires et 141 personnes avec un TMG. Des analyses factorielles confirmatoires ont mené au développement d’un nouveau questionnaire à 15 items (NEO-15) dont les indices d’ajustement, de cohérence interne et de validité convergente respectent les normes établies, ce qui en fait un questionnaire bien adapté à la mesure de la personnalité normale dans des contextes où le temps d’évaluation est limité. La deuxième partie présente les résultats d’une étude réalisée auprès de 82 personnes aux prises avec un TMG inscrites dans un PSE et visant à identifier les facteurs d’obtention et de maintien en emploi chez cette clientèle, particulièrement en ce qui concerne la contribution des éléments normaux et pathologiques de la personnalité. Les résultats de régressions logistiques et de régressions de Cox (analyses de survie) ont démontré que l’historique d’emploi, les symptômes négatifs et le niveau de pathologie de la personnalité étaient prédictifs de l’obtention d’un emploi standard et du délai avant l’obtention d’un tel emploi. Une autre série de régressions de Cox a pour sa part démontré que l’esprit consciencieux était le seul prédicteur significatif du maintien en emploi. Malgré certaines limites, particulièrement des tailles d’échantillons restreintes, ces résultats démontrent la pertinence et l’importance de tenir compte des éléments normaux et pathologiques de la personnalité dans le cadre d’études portant sur l’intégration au travail de personnes avec un TMG. De plus, cette thèse a permis de démontrer l’adéquation d’un nouvel instrument de mesure de la personnalité auprès de cette clientèle. Des avenues futures concernant la réintégration professionnelle et le traitement des personnes avec un TMG sont discutées à la lumière de ces résultats.

Społeczny kontekst kształtowania się tożsamości osób z niepełnosprawnością intelektualną w okresie późnej adolescencji i wyłaniającej się dorosłości

Wydział Nauk Społecznych: Instytut Psychologii

Children's Separation Anxiety Scale (CSAS): Psychometric Properties

This study describes the psychometric properties of the Children's Separation Anxiety Scale (CSAS), which assesses separation anxiety symptoms in childhood. Participants in Study 1 were 1,908 schoolchildren aged between 8 and 11. Exploratory factor analysis identified four factors: worry about separation, distress from separation, opposition to separation, and calm at separation, which explained 46.91% of the variance. In Study 2, 6,016 children aged 8–11 participated. The factor model in Study 1 was validated by confirmatory factor analysis. The internal consistency (α = 0.82) and temporal stability (r = 0.83) of the instrument were good. The convergent and discriminant validity were evaluated by means of correlations with other measures of separation anxiety, childhood anxiety, depression and anger. Sensitivity of the scale was 85% and its specificity, 95%. The results support the reliability and validity of the CSAS.

Méthodes de Bootstrap pour les modèles à facteurs

Cette thèse développe des méthodes bootstrap pour les modèles à facteurs qui sont couram- ment utilisés pour générer des prévisions depuis l'article pionnier de Stock et Watson (2002) sur les indices de diffusion. Ces modèles tolèrent l'inclusion d'un grand nombre de variables macroéconomiques et financières comme prédicteurs, une caractéristique utile pour inclure di- verses informations disponibles aux agents économiques. Ma thèse propose donc des outils éco- nométriques qui améliorent l'inférence dans les modèles à facteurs utilisant des facteurs latents extraits d'un large panel de prédicteurs observés. Il est subdivisé en trois chapitres complémen- taires dont les deux premiers en collaboration avec Sílvia Gonçalves et Benoit Perron. Dans le premier article, nous étudions comment les méthodes bootstrap peuvent être utilisées pour faire de l'inférence dans les modèles de prévision pour un horizon de h périodes dans le futur. Pour ce faire, il examine l'inférence bootstrap dans un contexte de régression augmentée de facteurs où les erreurs pourraient être autocorrélées. Il généralise les résultats de Gonçalves et Perron (2014) et propose puis justifie deux approches basées sur les résidus : le block wild bootstrap et le dependent wild bootstrap. Nos simulations montrent une amélioration des taux de couverture des intervalles de confiance des coefficients estimés en utilisant ces approches comparativement à la théorie asymptotique et au wild bootstrap en présence de corrélation sérielle dans les erreurs de régression. Le deuxième chapitre propose des méthodes bootstrap pour la construction des intervalles de prévision permettant de relâcher l'hypothèse de normalité des innovations. Nous y propo- sons des intervalles de prédiction bootstrap pour une observation h périodes dans le futur et sa moyenne conditionnelle. Nous supposons que ces prévisions sont faites en utilisant un ensemble de facteurs extraits d'un large panel de variables. Parce que nous traitons ces facteurs comme latents, nos prévisions dépendent à la fois des facteurs estimés et les coefficients de régres- sion estimés. Sous des conditions de régularité, Bai et Ng (2006) ont proposé la construction d'intervalles asymptotiques sous l'hypothèse de Gaussianité des innovations. Le bootstrap nous permet de relâcher cette hypothèse et de construire des intervalles de prédiction valides sous des hypothèses plus générales. En outre, même en supposant la Gaussianité, le bootstrap conduit à des intervalles plus précis dans les cas où la dimension transversale est relativement faible car il prend en considération le biais de l'estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires comme le montre une étude récente de Gonçalves et Perron (2014). Dans le troisième chapitre, nous suggérons des procédures de sélection convergentes pour les regressions augmentées de facteurs en échantillons finis. Nous démontrons premièrement que la méthode de validation croisée usuelle est non-convergente mais que sa généralisation, la validation croisée «leave-d-out» sélectionne le plus petit ensemble de facteurs estimés pour l'espace généré par les vraies facteurs. Le deuxième critère dont nous montrons également la validité généralise l'approximation bootstrap de Shao (1996) pour les regressions augmentées de facteurs. Les simulations montrent une amélioration de la probabilité de sélectionner par- cimonieusement les facteurs estimés comparativement aux méthodes de sélection disponibles. L'application empirique revisite la relation entre les facteurs macroéconomiques et financiers, et l'excès de rendement sur le marché boursier américain. Parmi les facteurs estimés à partir d'un large panel de données macroéconomiques et financières des États Unis, les facteurs fortement correlés aux écarts de taux d'intérêt et les facteurs de Fama-French ont un bon pouvoir prédictif pour les excès de rendement.

Deviant behavior variety scale: Development and validation with a sample of portuguese adolescents

This study presents the development and analysis of the psychometric properties of the Deviant Behavior Variety Scale (DBVS). Participants were 861 Portuguese adolescents (54 % female), aged between 12 and 19 years old. Two alternative models were tested using Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Although both models showed good fit indexes, the two-factor model didn’t presented discriminant validity. Further results provided evidence for the factorial and the convergent validity of the single-factor structure of the DVBS, which has also shown good internal consistency. Criterion validity was evaluated through the association with related variables, such as age and school failure, as well as the scale’s ability to capture group differences, namely between genders and school retentions, and finally by comparing a sub-group of convicted adolescents with a group of non-convicted ones regarding their engagement in delinquent activities. Overall, the scale presented good psychometric properties, with results supporting that the DBVS is a valid and reliable self-reported measure to evaluate adolescents’ involvement in deviance.

A atribuição de significado a escolha de carreira: os “quês” e os “porquês” de alunos do ensino superior da área de saúde

Tese de Doutoramento, Psicologia, Faculdade de Ciências Humanas e Sociais, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

Time Orientation in Organizations: Polychronicity and Multitasking

This dissertation consists of four studies examining two constructs related to time orientation in organizations: polychronicity and multitasking. The first study investigates the internal structure of polychronicity and its external correlates in a sample of undergraduate students (N = 732). Results converge to support a one-factor model and finds measures of polychronicity to be significantly related to extraversion, agreeableness, and openness to experience. The second study quantitatively reviews the existing research examining the relationship between polychronicity and the Big Five factors of personality. Results reveal a significant relationship between extraversion and openness to experience across studies. Studies three and four examine the usefulness of multitasking ability in the prediction of work related criteria using two organizational samples (N = 175 and 119, respectively). Multitasking ability demonstrated predictive validity, however the incremental validity over that of traditional predictors (i.e., cognitive ability and the Big Five factors of personality) was minimal. The relationships between multitasking ability, polychronicity, and other individual differences were also investigated. Polychronicity and multitasking ability proved to be distinct constructs demonstrating differential relationships with cognitive ability, personality, and performance. Results provided support for multitasking performance as a mediator in the relationship between multitasking ability and overall job performance. Additionally, polychronicity moderated the relationship between multitasking ability and both ratings of multitasking performance and overall job performance in Study four. Clarification of the factor structure of polychronicity and its correlates will facilitate future research in the time orientation literature. Results from two organizational samples point to work related measures of multitasking ability as a worthwhile tool for predicting the performance of job applicants.

Workplace aggression: A reconceptualization of the construct & an exploration of strain based outcomes

The examination of Workplace Aggression as a global construct conceptualization has gained considerable attention over the past few years as organizations work to better understand and address the occurrence and consequences of this challenging construct. The purpose of this dissertation is to build on previous efforts to validate the appropriateness and usefulness of a global conceptualization of the workplace aggression construct. ^ This dissertation has been broken up into two parts: Part 1 utilized a Confirmatory Factor Analysis approach in order to assess the existence of workplace aggression as a global construct; Part 2 utilized a series of correlational analyses to examine the relationship between a selection of commonly experienced individual strain based outcomes and the global construct conceptualization assessed in Part 1. Participants were a diverse sample of 219 working individuals from Amazon’s Mechanical Turk participant pool. ^ Results of Part 1 did not show support for a one-factor global construct conceptualization of the workplace aggression construct. However, support was shown for a higher-order five-factor model of the construct, suggesting that it may be possible to conceptualize workplace aggression as an overarching construct that is made up of separate workplace aggression constructs. Results of Part 2 showed support for the relationships between an existing global construct workplace aggression conceptualization and a series of strain-based outcomes. Utilizing correlational analyses, additional post-hoc analyses showed that individual factors such as emotional intelligence and personality are related to the experience of workplace aggression. Further, utilizing moderated regression analysis, the results demonstrated that individuals experiencing high levels of workplace aggression reported higher job satisfaction when they felt strongly that the aggressive act was highly visible, and similarly, when they felt that there was a clear intent to cause harm. ^ Overall, the findings of this dissertation do support the need for a simplification of its current state of measurement. Future research should continue to examine workplace aggression in an effort to shed additional light on the structure and usefulness of this complex construct.^

The hierarchic structure of fears: A cross-cultural replication with the fear survey schedule in a portuguese sample

A confirmatory attempt is made to assess the validity of a hierarchic structural model of fears. Using a sample comprising 1,980 adult volunteers in Portugal, the present study set out to delineate the multidimensional structure and hierarchic organization of a large set of feared stimuli by contrasting a higher-order model comprising general fear at the highest level against a first-order model and a unitary fear model. Following a refinement of the original model, support was found for a five-factor model on a first-order level, namely (1) Social fears, (2) Agoraphobic fears, (3) Fears of bodily injury, death and illness, (4) Fears of display to aggressive scenes, and (5) Harmless animals fears. These factors in turn loaded on a General fear factor at the second-order level. However, the firstorder model was as parsimonious as a hierarchic higher-order model. The hierarchic model supports a quantitative hierarchic approach which decomposes fear disorders into agoraphobic, social, and specific (animal and bloodinjury) fears.