1000 resultados para dengue modeling


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An outbreak of dengue 4 occurred in the Yucatán, México in 1984. During the course of the outbreak, 538 of 5486 reported cases of dengue-like illness were studied; 200 were confirmed as dengue serologically and/or virologically. Dengue 4 virus was isolated from 34 patients and dengue 1 from one. Severe haemorrhagic symptoms were observed in 9 laboratory confirmed patients, including four deaths. Thus, the outbreak in Yucatán is the second dengue epidemic in the Americas after the Cuban epidemic in 1981 in which a number of patients suffered from haemorrhagic complications. It was notable that 5 of 9 hospitalized, severe cases were young adults and that only one met the WHO criteria of DHF, in contrast to primary pediatric nature of DHF in Southeast Asia. In this paper we describe clinical, serologic, and virologic studies conducted during the outbreak.

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Dengue congenital disease was not confirmed in 10 children whose mothers had the infection during pregnancy. The fetal sera presented anti-dengue IgG antibodies which progressively declined, and disappeared after 8 months. IgM antibodies to dengue were not observed in the sera. Other normal data suggesting the healthy state of the children included: absence of malformations, pregnancy time, Apgar index, weight, and placenta aspect

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During March 1994 cases of a exanthematic acute disease were reported in the municipalities of Itagemirim, Eunápolis and Belmonte, state of Bahia. Dengue fever was confirmed by serology (MAC-ELISA) and by dengue virus type 2 isolation, genotype Jamaica. Signs and symptoms of classic dengue fever were observed with a high percentual of rash (73.8%) and pruritus (50.5%). Major haemorrhagic manifestations were unfrequent and only bleeding gum was reported. Dengue virus activity spreaded rapidly to important tourism counties like Porto Seguro, Ilhéus, Santa Cruz de Cabrália, Prado, Alcobaça and others, representing a risk for the spreading of dengue virus into the country and abroad.

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A seroepidemiologic survey was carried out in schoolchildren from public schools of the Niterói municipality, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, after a period of sequential epidemics by dengue virus type 1 and 2 (DEN-1 and DEN-2). 450 blood samples were obtained by fingertip puncture and collected on filter paper discs. The hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) test was carried out using DEN-1 and DEN-2 antigens. HAI titres were demonstrated in 66% (297/450) of the sera and the geometric means of the titres were 1/182 and 1/71 for DEN-1 and DEN-2, respectively. Secondary infections were observed in 61% (181/297) of positive cases. Among these, 75% (135/181) were under fifteen years old. No dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) was reported in these children. Asymptomatic or oligosymptomatic infections were detected in 56% of the studied population. The absolute and relative frequencies of positive tests by age group and sex did not evidence statistically significant difference. The number of individuals infected probably produced a immunologic barrier responsible for the non occurrence of dengue epidemic in the latter years.

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We show here a simplified RT-PCR for identification of dengue virus types 1 and 2. Five dengue virus strains, isolated from Brazilian patients, and yellow fever vaccine 17DD as a negative control, were used in this study. C6/36 cells were infected and supernatants were collected after 7 days. The RT-PCR, done in a single reaction vessel, was carried out following a 1/10 dilution of virus in distilled water or in a detergent mixture containing Nonidet P40. The 50 µl assay reaction mixture included 50 pmol of specific primers amplifying a 482 base pair sequence for dengue type 1 and 210 base pair sequence for dengue type 2. In other assays, we used dengue virus consensus primers having maximum sequence similarity to the four serotypes, amplifying a 511 base pair sequence. The reaction mixture also contained 0.1 mM of the four deoxynucleoside triphosphates, 7.5 U of reverse transcriptase, 1U of thermostable Taq DNA polymerase. The mixture was incubated for 5 minutes at 37ºC for reverse transcription followed by 30 cycles of two-step PCR amplification (92ºC for 60 seconds, 53ºC for 60 seconds) with slow temperature increment. The PCR products were subjected to 1.7% agarose gel electrophoresis and visualized by UV light after staining with ethidium bromide solution. Low virus titer around 10 3, 6 TCID50/ml was detected by RT-PCR for dengue type 1. Specific DNA amplification was observed with all the Brazilian dengue strains by using dengue virus consensus primers. As compared to other RT-PCRs, this assay is less laborious, done in a shorter time, and has reduced risk of contamination

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Three cases of dengue fever involving the central nervous system (CNS) are reported. All occurred in 1994 during a dengue (DEN) epidemic caused by serotypes DEN-1 and DEN-2. The first case examined was a 17-year-old girl who complained of fever, nuchal rigidity and genital bleeding. Three blood samples were positive by anti-dengue IgM ELISA and showed hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) test titers ³ 1,280. The second case concerned a 86-year-old woman with fever, muscle and joint pains, altered consciousness, syncope, nuchal rigidity and meningismus. Her blood sample showed an HI titer of 1:320 for flaviviruses, and an IgM ELISA positive for dengue. The third case was a 67-year-old woman with fever, abnormal behaviour, seizures, tremor of extremities, thrombocytopenia, increased hematocrit and leukopenia. The patient suffered a typical case of dengue hemorrhagic fever with ensuing shock and a fatal outcome. A single blood sample showed HI antibodies of ³ 1,280 and an IgM ELISA positive for dengue. No virus could be isolated from any patient by inoculation of blood into C6/36 cells and suckling mice. No other agent of disease was encountered in the patient.

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Dengue outbreaks have occurred in several Brazilian States since 1986 involving serotypes 1 (DEN-1) and 2 (DEN-2). In view of the few cases of double infection documented in the literature, we report here a case of simultaneous infection with DEN-1 and DEN-2 in a patient residing in the municipality of Miranda, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Western region of Brazil. DEN-1 was introduced in this State in 1989 and DEN-2 in 1996, both of them circulating in some municipalities. This double infection was identified by virus isolation and by indirect immunofluorescence using monoclonal antibodies and confirmed by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR). This is the first documented case of simultaneous infection with serotypes DEN-1 and DEN-2 in Brazil.

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Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil-Perfil de Construção

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Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Informática pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

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Work presented in the context of the European Master in Computational Logics, as partial requisit for the graduation as Master in Computational Logics

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The authors report the isolation of dengue 3 virus for the first time in Brazil. The patient, resident in Limeira-SP, traveled to Nicaragua on May 16th, 1998, where he stayed for two months. Starting on August 14th he had fever, headache, myalgia, arthralgia, retro-orbital pain and diarrhea. He returned to Brazil on August 16th and was hospitalized in the next day. The patient had full recovery and was discharged on August 20th. The virus was isolated in C6/36 cell culture inoculated with serum collected on the 6th day after the onset of the symptoms. The serotype 3 was identified by indirect immunofluorescence assays performed with type-specific monoclonal antibodies. This serotype was further confirmed by polymerase chain reaction analysis. The introduction of a new dengue serotype in a susceptible population is a real threat for the occurrence of severe forms of the disease. The isolation and identification of dengue virus are important in order to monitoring the serotypes circulating in Brazil and to take the measures necessary to prevent and control an epidemic.

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All over the world, the liberalization of electricity markets, which follows different paradigms, has created new challenges for those involved in this sector. In order to respond to these challenges, electric power systems suffered a significant restructuring in its mode of operation and planning. This restructuring resulted in a considerable increase of the electric sector competitiveness. Particularly, the Ancillary Services (AS) market has been target of constant renovations in its operation mode as it is a targeted market for the trading of services, which have as main objective to ensure the operation of electric power systems with appropriate levels of stability, safety, quality, equity and competitiveness. In this way, with the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources including distributed generation, demand response, storage units and electric vehicles, it is essential to develop new smarter and hierarchical methods of operation of electric power systems. As these resources are mostly connected to the distribution network, it is important to consider the introduction of this kind of resources in AS delivery in order to achieve greater reliability and cost efficiency of electrical power systems operation. The main contribution of this work is the design and development of mechanisms and methodologies of AS market and for energy and AS joint market, considering different management entities of transmission and distribution networks. Several models developed in this work consider the most common AS in the liberalized market environment: Regulation Down; Regulation Up; Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve. The presented models consider different rules and ways of operation, such as the division of market by network areas, which allows the congestion management of interconnections between areas; or the ancillary service cascading process, which allows the replacement of AS of superior quality by lower quality of AS, ensuring a better economic performance of the market. A major contribution of this work is the development an innovative methodology of market clearing process to be used in the energy and AS joint market, able to ensure viable and feasible solutions in markets, where there are technical constraints in the transmission network involving its division into areas or regions. The proposed method is based on the determination of Bialek topological factors and considers the contribution of the dispatch for all services of increase of generation (energy, Regulation Up, Spinning and Non-Spinning reserves) in network congestion. The use of Bialek factors in each iteration of the proposed methodology allows limiting the bids in the market while ensuring that the solution is feasible in any context of system operation. Another important contribution of this work is the model of the contribution of distributed energy resources in the ancillary services. In this way, a Virtual Power Player (VPP) is considered in order to aggregate, manage and interact with distributed energy resources. The VPP manages all the agents aggregated, being able to supply AS to the system operator, with the main purpose of participation in electricity market. In order to ensure their participation in the AS, the VPP should have a set of contracts with the agents that include a set of diversified and adapted rules to each kind of distributed resource. All methodologies developed and implemented in this work have been integrated into the MASCEM simulator, which is a simulator based on a multi-agent system that allows to study complex operation of electricity markets. In this way, the developed methodologies allow the simulator to cover more operation contexts of the present and future of the electricity market. In this way, this dissertation offers a huge contribution to the AS market simulation, based on models and mechanisms currently used in several real markets, as well as the introduction of innovative methodologies of market clearing process on the energy and AS joint market. This dissertation presents five case studies; each one consists of multiple scenarios. The first case study illustrates the application of AS market simulation considering several bids of market players. The energy and ancillary services joint market simulation is exposed in the second case study. In the third case study it is developed a comparison between the simulation of the joint market methodology, in which the player bids to the ancillary services is considered by network areas and a reference methodology. The fourth case study presents the simulation of joint market methodology based on Bialek topological distribution factors applied to transmission network with 7 buses managed by a TSO. The last case study presents a joint market model simulation which considers the aggregation of small players to a VPP, as well as complex contracts related to these entities. The case study comprises a distribution network with 33 buses managed by VPP, which comprises several kinds of distributed resources, such as photovoltaic, CHP, fuel cells, wind turbines, biomass, small hydro, municipal solid waste, demand response, and storage units.

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In 2001, an autochthonous case of dual viremia, resulting from naturally acquired dengue virus DEN-1 and DEN-2 infections was detected during the dengue outbreak that occurred in Barretos, a city with about 105,000 inhabitants in the North region of São Paulo State. Serotype identification was based on virus isolation to C6/36 mosquito cells culture and immunofluorescence assays using type-specific monoclonal antibodies. The double infection was also confirmed by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Comparative analysis of the 240-nucleotide sequences of E/NS1 gene junction region between the genome of DEN-1 and DEN-2 isolates of the corresponding reference Nauru and PR 159S1 strains, respectively, showed some nucleotide differences, mainly silent mutations in the third codon position. Results of maximum likelihood phylogenetic analysis of E/NS1 gene sequences indicated that both genotypes of DEN-1 and DEN-2 viruses recovered from double infection in Barretos belonged to genotypes I and III, respectively.