CP-MLR Directed QSAR Studies on the Antimycobacterial Activity of Functionalised Alkenols - Topological Descriptors in Modeling the Activity

The antimycobacterial activity of nitro/ acetamido alkenol derivatives and chloro/ amino alkenol derivatives has been analyzed through combinatorial protocol in multiple linear regression (CP-MLR) using different topological descriptors obtained from Dragon software. Among the topological descriptor classes considered in the study, the activity is correlated with simple topological descriptors (TOPO) and more complex 2D autocorrelation descriptors (2DAUTO). In model building the descriptors from other classes, that is, empirical, constitutional, molecular walk counts, modified Burden eigenvalues and Galvez topological charge indices have made secondary contribution in association with TOPO and / or 2DAUTO classes. The structure-activity correlations obtained with the TOPO descriptors suggest that less branched and saturated structural templates would be better for the activity. For both the series of compounds, in 2DAUTO the activity has been correlated to the descriptors having mass, volume and/ or polarizability as weighting component. In these two series of compounds, however, the regression coefficients of the descriptors have opposite arithmetic signs with respect to one another. Outwardly these two series of compounds appear very similar. But in terms of activity they belong to different segments of descriptor-activity profiles. This difference in the activity of these two series of compounds may be mainly due to the spacing difference between the C1 (also C6) substituents and rest of the functional groups in them.

Topological Descriptors in Modeling the HIV Inhibitory Activity of 2-Aryl-3-pyridyl-thiazolidin-4-ones

The HIV-1 RT inhibitory activity of 2-(2,6-dihalophenyl)-3-(substituted pyridin-2-yl)-thiazolidin-4-ones has been analyzed with different topological descriptors obtained from DRAGON software. Here, simple topological descriptors (TOPO), Galvez topological charge indices (GVZ) and 2D autocorrelation descriptors (2DAUTO) have been found to yield good predictive models for the activity of these compounds. The correlations obtained from the TOPO class descriptors suggest that less extended or compact saturated structural templates would be better for the activity. The participating GVZ class descriptors suggest that they have same degree of influence on the activity. In 2DAUTO class, the large participation of descriptors of lags seven and three indicate the association of activity information with the seven and three centered structural fragments of these compounds. The physicochemical weighting components of these descriptors suggest homogeneous influence of mass, volume, electronegativity and/ or polarizability on the activity.

Campylobacter monitoring in German broiler flocks: an explorative time series analysis

Campylobacter, a major zoonotic pathogen, displays seasonality in poultry and in humans. In order to identify temporal patterns in the prevalence of thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in a voluntary monitoring programme in broiler flocks in Germany and in the reported human incidence, time series methods were used. The data originated between May 2004 and June 2007. By the use of seasonal decomposition, autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions, it could be shown that an annual seasonality is present. However, the peak month differs between sample submission, prevalence in broilers and human incidence. Strikingly, the peak in human campylobacterioses preceded the peak in broiler prevalence in Lower Saxony rather than occurring after it. Significant cross-correlations between monthly temperature and prevalence in broilers as well as between human incidence, monthly temperature, rainfall and wind-force were identified. The results highlight the necessity to quantify the transmission of Campylobacter from broiler to humans and to include climatic factors in order to gain further insight into the epidemiology of this zoonotic disease.

Change in suicide rates in Switzerland before and after firearm restriction resulting from the 2003 “Army XXI” reform

Objective: Firearms are the most common method of suicide among young men in Switzerland. From March 2003 through February 2004, the number of Swiss soldiers was halved as a result of an army reform (Army XXI), leading to a decrease in the availability of guns nationwide. The authors investigated the patterns of the overall suicide rate and the firearm suicide rate before and after the reform. Method: Using a naturalistic study design, the authors compared suicide rates before (1995–2003) and after the intervention (2004–2008) in the affected population (men ages 18–43) and in two comparison groups (women ages 18–44 and men ages 44–53). Data were received from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Interrupted time series analysis was used to control for preexisting temporal trends. Alternative methods (Poisson regression, autocorrelation analysis, and surrogate data tests) were used to check validity. Results: The authors found a reduction in both the overall suicide rate and the firearm suicide rate after the Army XXI reform. No significant increases were found for other suicide methods overall. An increase in railway suicides was observed. It was estimated that 22% of the reduction in firearm suicides was substituted by other suicide methods. The attenuation of the suicide rate was not compensated for during the follow-up years. Neither of the comparison groups showed statistically significant changes in firearm suicide rate and overall suicide rate. Conclusions: The restriction of firearm availability in Switzerland resulting from the Army XXI reform was followed by an enduring decrease in the general suicide rate.

Scp160p is required for translational efficiency of codon-optimized mRNAs in yeast

The budding yeast multi-K homology domain RNA-binding protein Scp160p binds to > 1000 messenger RNAs (mRNAs) and polyribosomes, and its mammalian homolog vigilin binds transfer RNAs (tRNAs) and translation elongation factor EF1alpha. Despite its implication in translation, studies on Scp160p's molecular function are lacking to date. We applied translational profiling approaches and demonstrate that the association of a specific subset of mRNAs with ribosomes or heavy polysomes depends on Scp160p. Interaction of Scp160p with these mRNAs requires the conserved K homology domains 13 and 14. Transfer RNA pairing index analysis of Scp160p target mRNAs indicates a high degree of consecutive use of iso-decoding codons. As shown for one target mRNA encoding the glycoprotein Pry3p, Scp160p depletion results in translational downregulation but increased association with polysomes, suggesting that it is required for efficient translation elongation. Depletion of Scp160p also decreased the relative abundance of ribosome-associated tRNAs whose codons show low potential for autocorrelation on mRNAs. Conversely, tRNAs with highly autocorrelated codons in mRNAs are less impaired. Our data indicate that Scp160p might increase the efficiency of tRNA recharge, or prevent diffusion of discharged tRNAs, both of which were also proposed to be the likely basis for the translational fitness effect of tRNA pairing.

Temporal Changes in Randomness of Bird Communities across Central Europe

Many studies have examined whether communities are structured by random or deterministic processes, and both are likely to play a role, but relatively few studies have attempted to quantify the degree of randomness in species composition. We quantified, for the first time, the degree of randomness in forest bird communities based on an analysis of spatial autocorrelation in three regions of Germany. The compositional dissimilarity between pairs of forest patches was regressed against the distance between them. We then calculated the y-intercept of the curve, i.e. the ‘nugget’, which represents the compositional dissimilarity at zero spatial distance. We therefore assume, following similar work on plant communities, that this represents the degree of randomness in species composition. We then analysed how the degree of randomness in community composition varied over time and with forest management intensity, which we expected to reduce the importance of random processes by increasing the strength of environmental drivers. We found that a high portion of the bird community composition could be explained by chance (overall mean of 0.63), implying that most of the variation in local bird community composition is driven by stochastic processes. Forest management intensity did not consistently affect the mean degree of randomness in community composition, perhaps because the bird communities were relatively insensitive to management intensity. We found a high temporal variation in the degree of randomness, which may indicate temporal variation in assembly processes and in the importance of key environmental drivers. We conclude that the degree of randomness in community composition should be considered in bird community studies, and the high values we find may indicate that bird community composition is relatively hard to predict at the regional scale.

Sideband-Ratio and Harmonic Response of Sub-Millimeter Wave Mixers measured with a Martin Puplett Interferometer

Heterodyne receivers at millimeter and submillimeter wavelength are widely used for radiometric spectral line observations for atmospheric remote sensing or radio astronomy. The quantitative analysis of such observations requires an accurate knowledge of the mixers's sideband ratio. In addition, its potential sensitivity to spurious harmonics needs to be well understood. In this paper, we discuss a measurement technique for these receiver characteristics, which is based on a scanning Martin Puplett Interferometer used in conjunction with a wide band digital autocorrelation spectrometer for the analysis of the intermediate frequency band. We present measurement results of different double sideband and sideband separating mixers, which were developed for the proposed 340GHz multi-beam limb sounder STEAMR.

Time-series analysis of Campylobacter incidence in Switzerland

SUMMARY Campylobacteriosis has been the most common food-associated notifiable infectious disease in Switzerland since 1995. Contact with and ingestion of raw or undercooked broilers are considered the dominant risk factors for infection. In this study, we investigated the temporal relationship between the disease incidence in humans and the prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers in Switzerland from 2008 to 2012. We use a time-series approach to describe the pattern of the disease by incorporating seasonal effects and autocorrelation. The analysis shows that prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers, with a 2-week lag, has a significant impact on disease incidence in humans. Therefore Campylobacter cases in humans can be partly explained by contagion through broiler meat. We also found a strong autoregressive effect in human illness, and a significant increase of illness during Christmas and New Year's holidays. In a final analysis, we corrected for the sampling error of prevalence in broilers and the results gave similar conclusions.

Neighbourhood abundance and small-tree survival in a lowland Bornean rainforest

Conspecific effects of neighbours on small-tree survival may have a role in tree population dynamics and community composition of tropical forests. This notion was tested with data from two 4-ha plots in lowland forest at Danum, Sabah (Borneo), for a 21-year interval (censuses at 1986, 1996, 2001, 2007). Species with ≥45 focal trees 10 to <100 cm stem girth per plot in 1986 were selected. Logistic regressions fitted mean focal tree size and mean inverse-distance-weighted basal area abundance of neighbours (within 20 m), for the periods over which each focus tree was alive. Coefficients of variation of neighbourhood basal area abundance, both spatially and temporally, quantified the changing environment of each focus tree. Fits were critically and individually evaluated, with corrections for spatial autocorrelation. Conspecific effects at Danum was generally very weak or non-existent: species’ mortality rates varied also across plots. The main reasons appear to be that (1) species were not dense enough to interact despite frequent although weak spatial aggregation, and their neighbourhoods were highly differing in species composition; and (2) these neighbourhoods were highly variable temporally, meaning that focus trees experienced stochastically fluctuating neighbourhood environments. Only one species, Dimorphocalyx muricatus, showed strong conspecific effects (varying between plots) which can be explained by its distinct ecology. This understorey species is highly aggregated on ridges and is drought-tolerant. That this functionally and habitat-specialized species, has implied intraspecific density-dependent feedback in its dynamics is a remarkable indication of the overall processes maintaining stability of the Danum forest.

The Great Moderation Flattens Fat Tails: Disappearing Leptokurtosis

Recently, Fagiolo et al. (2008) find fat tails of economic growth rates after adjusting outliers, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity. This paper employs US quarterly real output growth, showing that this finding of fat tails may reflect the Great Moderation. That is, leptokurtosis disappears after GARCH adjustment once we incorporate the break in the variance equation.

Simulation study of joint transition and Weibull survival model with shared parameters

This study investigates a theoretical model where a longitudinal process, that is a stationary Markov-Chain, and a Weibull survival process share a bivariate random effect. Furthermore, a Quality-of-Life adjusted survival is calculated as the weighted sum of survival time. Theoretical values of population mean adjusted survival of the described model are computed numerically. The parameters of the bivariate random effect do significantly affect theoretical values of population mean. Maximum-Likelihood and Bayesian methods are applied on simulated data to estimate the model parameters. Based on the parameter estimates, predicated population mean adjusted survival can then be calculated numerically and compared with the theoretical values. Bayesian method and Maximum-Likelihood method provide parameter estimations and population mean prediction with comparable accuracy; however Bayesian method suffers from poor convergence due to autocorrelation and inter-variable correlation. ^

Spatial analysis of cardiovascular disease mortality and air pollution in Harris County, Texas

The association between fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was spatially analyzed for Harris County, Texas, at the census tract level. The objective was to assess how increased PM2.5 exposure related to CVD mortality in this area while controlling for race, income, education, and age. An estimated exposure raster was created for Harris County using Kriging to estimate the PM2.5 exposure at the census tract level. The PM2.5 exposure and the CVD mortality rates were analyzed in an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model and the residuals were subsequently assessed for spatial autocorrelation. Race, median household income, and age were all found to be significant (p<0.05) predictors in the model. This study found that for every one μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure, holding age and education variables constant, an increase of 16.57 CVD deaths per 100,000 would be predicted for increased minimum exposure values and an increase of 14.47 CVD deaths per 100,000 would be predicted for increased maximum exposure values. This finding supports previous studies associating PM2.5 exposure with CVD mortality. This study further identified the areas of greatest PM2.5 exposure in Harris County as being the geographical locations of populations with the highest risk of CVD (i.e., predominantly older, low-income populations with a predominance of African Americans). The magnitude of the effect of PM2.5 exposure on CVD mortality rates in the study region indicates a need for further community-level studies in Harris County, and suggests that reducing excess PM2.5 exposure would reduce CVD mortality.^

Correlation of tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus in Harris County, Texas from 2009 through 2010 using Geographic Information Systems

A population based ecological study was conducted to identify areas with a high number of TB and HIV new diagnoses in Harris County, Texas from 2009 through 2010 by applying Geographic Information Systems to determine whether distinguished spatial patterns exist at the census tract level through the use of exploratory mapping. As of 2010, Texas has the fourth highest occurrence of new diagnoses of HIV/AIDS and TB.[31] The Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) has identified HIV infected persons as a high risk population for TB in Harris County.[29] In order to explore this relationship further, GIS was utilized to identify spatial trends. ^ The specific aims were to map TB and HIV new diagnoses rates and spatially identify hotspots and high value clusters at the census tract level. The potential association between HIV and TB was analyzed using spatial autocorrelation and linear regression analysis. The spatial statistics used were ArcGIS 9.3 Hotspot Analysis and Cluster and Outlier Analysis. Spatial autocorrelation was determined through Global Moran's I and linear regression analysis. ^ Hotspots and clusters of TB and HIV are located within the same spatial areas of Harris County. The areas with high value clusters and hotspots for each infection are located within the central downtown area of the city of Houston. There is an additional hotspot area of TB located directly north of I-10 and a hotspot area of HIV northeast of Interstate 610. ^ The Moran's I Index of 0.17 (Z score = 3.6 standard deviations, p-value = 0.01) suggests that TB is statistically clustered with a less than 1% chance that this pattern is due to random chance. However, there were a high number of features with no neighbors which may invalidate the statistical properties of the test. Linear regression analysis indicated that HIV new diagnoses rates (β=−0.006, SE=0.147, p=0.970) and census tracts (β=0.000, SE=0.000, p=0.866) were not significant predictors of TB new diagnoses rates. ^ Mapping products indicate that census tracts with overlapping hotspots and high value clusters of TB and HIV should be a targeted focus for prevention efforts, most particularly within central Harris County. While the statistical association was not confirmed, evidence suggests that there is a relationship between HIV and TB within this two year period.^

Análisis de componentes principales con datos georreferenciados : una aplicación en agricultura de precisión

La utilización de nuevas tecnologías asociadas a la agricultura de precisión permite capturar información de múltiples variables en gran cantidad de sitios georreferenciados dentro de lotes en producción. Las covariaciones espaciales de las propiedades del suelo y el rendimiento del cultivo pueden evaluarse a través del análisis de componentes principales clásico (PCA). No obstante, como otros métodos multivariados descriptivos, el PCA no ha sido desarrollado explícitamente para datos espaciales. Nuevas versiones de análisis multivariado permiten contemplar la autocorrelación espacial entre datos de sitios vecinos. En este trabajo se aplican y comparan los resultados de dos técnicas multivariadas, el PCA y MULTISPATI-PCA. Este último incorpora la información espacial a través del cálculo del índice de Moran entre los datos de un sitio y el dato promedio de sus vecinos. Los resultados mostraron que utilizando MULTISPATI-PCA se detectaron correlaciones entre variables que no fueron detectadas con el PCA. Los mapas de variabilidad espacial construidos a partir de la primera componente de ambas técnicas fueron similares; no así los de la segunda componente debido a cambios en la estructura de co-variación identificada, al corregir la variabilidad por la autocorrelación espacial de los datos. El método MULTISPATI-PCA constituye una herramienta importante para el mapeo de la variabilidad espacial y la identificación de zonas homogéneas dentro de lotes.

Accumulation rates for western Dronning Maud Land from firn cores and snow pits

As a result of intensive field activities carried out by several nations over the past 15 years, a set of accumulation measurements for western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, was collected, based on firn-core drilling and snow-pit sampling. This new information was supplemented by earlier data taken from the literature, resulting in 111 accumulation values. Using Geographical Information Systems software, a first region-wide mean annual snow-accumulation field was derived. In order to define suitable interpolation criteria, the accumulation records were analyzed with respect to their spatial autocorrelation and statistical properties. The resulting accumulation pattern resembles well known characteristics such as a relatively wet coastal area with a sharp transition to the dry interior, but also reveals complex topographic effects. Furthermore, this work identifies new high-return shallow drilling sites by uncovering areas of insufficient sampling density.