Triggering Solar-Powered Vehicle Activated Signs using Self Organising Maps with K-means

Solar-powered vehicle activated signs (VAS) are speed warning signs powered by batteries that are recharged by solar panels. These signs are more desirable than other active warning signs due to the low cost of installation and the minimal maintenance requirements. However, one problem that can affect a solar-powered VAS is the limited power capacity available to keep the sign operational. In order to be able to operate the sign more efficiently, it is proposed that the sign be appropriately triggered by taking into account the prevalent conditions. Triggering the sign depends on many factors such as the prevailing speed limit, road geometry, traffic behaviour, the weather and the number of hours of daylight. The main goal of this paper is therefore to develop an intelligent algorithm that would help optimize the trigger point to achieve the best compromise between speed reduction and power consumption. Data have been systematically collected whereby vehicle speed data were gathered whilst varying the value of the trigger speed threshold. A two stage algorithm is then utilized to extract the trigger speed value. Initially the algorithm employs a Self-Organising Map (SOM), to effectively visualize and explore the properties of the data that is then clustered in the second stage using K-means clustering method. Preliminary results achieved in the study indicate that using a SOM in conjunction with K-means method is found to perform well as opposed to direct clustering of the data by K-means alone. Using a SOM in the current case helped the algorithm determine the number of clusters in the data set, which is a frequent problem in data clustering.

Recent developments in statistical methods for detecting genetic loci affecting phenotypic variability

A number of recent works have introduced statistical methods for detecting genetic loci that affect phenotypic variability, which we refer to as variability-controlling quantitative trait loci (vQTL). These are genetic variants whose allelic state predicts how much phenotype values will vary about their expected means. Such loci are of great potential interest in both human and non-human genetic studies, one reason being that a detected vQTL could represent a previously undetected interaction with other genes or environmental factors. The simultaneous publication of these new methods in different journals has in many cases precluded opportunity for comparison. We survey some of these methods, the respective trade-offs they imply, and the connections between them. The methods fall into three main groups: classical non-parametric, fully parametric, and semi-parametric two-stage approximations. Choosing between alternatives involves balancing the need for robustness, flexibility, and speed. For each method, we identify important assumptions and limitations, including those of practical importance, such as their scope for including covariates and random effects. We show in simulations that both parametric methods and their semi-parametric approximations can give elevated false positive rates when they ignore mean-variance relationships intrinsic to the data generation process. We conclude that choice of method depends on the trait distribution, the need to include non-genetic covariates, and the population size and structure, coupled with a critical evaluation of how these fit with the assumptions of the statistical model.

Automating the product derivation process of multi-agent systems product lines

Agent-oriented software engineering and software product lines are two promising software engineering techniques. Recent research work has been exploring their integration, namely multi-agent systems product lines (MAS-PLs), to promote reuse and variability management in the context of complex software systems. However, current product derivation approaches do not provide specific mechanisms to deal with MAS-PLs. This is essential because they typically encompass several concerns (e.g., trust, coordination, transaction, state persistence) that are constructed on the basis of heterogeneous technologies (e.g., object-oriented frameworks and platforms). In this paper, we propose the use of multi-level models to support the configuration knowledge specification and automatic product derivation of MAS-PLs. Our approach provides an agent-specific architecture model that uses abstractions and instantiation rules that are relevant to this application domain. In order to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach, we have implemented it as an extension of an existing product derivation tool, called GenArch. The approach has also been evaluated through the automatic instantiation of two MAS-PLs, demonstrating its potential and benefits to product derivation and configuration knowledge specification.

Decision Support Systems And Promoting Socially Just Environmental Management

The Mauri Model DMF is unique in its approach to the management of water resources as the framework offers a transparent and inclusive approach to considering the environmental, economic, social and cultural aspects of the decisions being contemplated. The Mauri Model DMF is unique because it is capable of including multiple-worldviews and adopts mauri (intrinsic value or well-being) in the place of the more common monetised assessments of pseudo sustainability using Cost Benefit Analysis. The Mauri Model DMF uses a two stage process that first identifies participants’ worldviews and inherent bias regarding water resource management, and then facilitates transparent assessment of selected sustainability performance indicators. The assessment can then be contemplated as the separate environmental, economic, social and cultural dimensions of the decision, and collectively as an overall result; or the priorities associated with different worldviews can be applied to determine the sensitivity of the result to different cultural contexts or worldviews.

Estudo clínico de fase II e farmacocinético para o uso de Talidomida em pacientes com câncer colorretal metastático

O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a eficácia, a segurança e a farmacocinética da talidomida nos pacientes com câncer colorretal metastático. Dezessete pacientes com adenocarcinoma colorretal metastático, previamente tratados com pelo menos um regime de quimioterapia, foram incluídos no estudo. Os pacientes eram inicialmente tratados com talidomida 200 mg/dia, com um aumento de dose de 200mg a cada duas semanas, até atingir a dose máxima de 800 mg/dia. Os pacientes eram reavaliados a cada duas semanas para toxicidade e a cada 8 semanas para taxa de resposta através de exames de imagem. A farmacocinética foi caracterizada em quatro pacientes no nível de dose de 200 mg/dia.Todos os dezessete pacientes incluídos foram avaliados no perfil de toxicidade e quatorze pacientes nos critérios de taxa de resposta. A talidomida foi bem tolerada, sendo os principais efeitos colaterais a sonolência, a tontura, a xerostomia e a constipação. Não houve nenhuma resposta objetiva ou doença estável após oito semanas de tratamento. A sobrevida global mediana foi de 3,6 meses. A talidomida é bem tolerada como agente único de tratamento, mas não demonstrou nenhuma atividade antitumoral em pacientes com câncer colorretal metastático, já tratados previamente com outro regime de quimioterapia. Apesar disto, futuros estudos com este agente em estágios iniciais desta neoplasia devem ser considerados, quando as propriedades antiangiogênicas desta droga poderão ser mais relevantes para a progressão da doença.

Segmentation in the brazilian labor market

This paper measures the degree of segmentation in the brazilian labor market. Controlling for observable and unobservable characteristics, workers earn more in the formal sector, which supports the segmentation hypothesis. We break down the degree of segmentation by socio-economic attributes to identify the groups where this phenomenon is more prevalent. We investigate the robustness of our findings to the inclusion of self-employed individuals, and apply a two-stage panel probit model using the self-selection correction strategy to investigate a potential weakness of the fixed-effects estimator

Efeitos da qualidade da educação sobre o diferencial de renda dos jovens no Brasil

Esta dissertação avalia o impacto da educação sobre a renda dos jovens no Brasil, seguindo a tradição de equações de determinação de salários. O trabalho difere dos trabalhos na área realizados no Brasil em quatro aspectos. Em primeiro lugar, Em primeiro lugar, o universo de análise está focado na população jovem brasileira, a qual ingressou recentemente no mercado de trabalho e nele permanecerá por muitos anos, o que traz informações sobre as características desse mercado para os próximos 25 a 35 anos. Além disso, ele difere porque introduz a qualidade do ensino como determinante dos rendimentos. Depois, porque adota um protocolo de imputação da qualidade da educação dos jovens para os quais não se tem informação sobre a qualidade da educação, de sorte a evitar viés de seleção. E, por fim, a dissertação contrasta com os estudos correntes no tema porque explora diferentes métodos de estimação dos retornos da educação e da qualidade do ensino. Além do método tradicional dos estimadores de OLS, este trabalho considera o uso de fronteiras estocásticas de salários. As estimativas foram feitas a partir de um modelo cross-section em dois estágios. No primeiro estágio, estimou-se a equação de determinação da probabilidade de um jovem entre 11 e 21 anos de idade estudar na rede pública ou na rede privada, escolas com diferenças qualitativas grandes no país. No segundo estágio, imputou-se um indicador de qualidade da educação dos jovens num modelo econométrico de determinação da renda dos jovens entre 16 e 25 anos de idade. O procedimento com imputação foi necessário simplesmente pelo fato de nas estatísticas brasileiras não haver informações sobre a qualidade do ensino adquirido pelos indivíduos. A análise permitiu mostrar que a qualidade da educação interfere de forma significativa na renda dos jovens, com grande impacto sobre os índices de desigualdade da distribuição de renda nessa faixa de idade. Também permitiu mostrar que existe um trade-off entre o retorno da e

Estimating the effect of discretionary spending on corruption: evidence from Brazilian municipalities

O presente artigo estuda a relação entre corrupção e discricionariedade do gasto público ao responder a seguinte pergunta: regras de licitação mais rígidas, uma proxy para discricionariedade, resultam em menor prevalência de corrupção nos municípios brasileiros? A estratégia empírica é uma aproximação de regressões em dois estágios (2SLS) estimadas localmente em cada transição de regras de licitação, cuja fonte de dados de corrupção é o Programa de Fiscalização por Sorteio da CGU e os dados sobre discricionariedade são derivados da Lei 8.666/93, responsável por regular os processos de compras e construção civil em todas as esferas de governo. Os resultados mostram, entretanto, que menor discricionariedade está relacionada com maior corrupção para quase todos os cortes impostos pela lei de licitações.

Wald tests for IV regression with weak instruments

This dissertation deals with the problem of making inference when there is weak identification in models of instrumental variables regression. More specifically we are interested in one-sided hypothesis testing for the coefficient of the endogenous variable when the instruments are weak. The focus is on the conditional tests based on likelihood ratio, score and Wald statistics. Theoretical and numerical work shows that the conditional t-test based on the two-stage least square (2SLS) estimator performs well even when instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous variable. The conditional approach correct uniformly its size and when the population F-statistic is as small as two, its power is near the power envelopes for similar and non-similar tests. This finding is surprising considering the bad performance of the two-sided conditional t-tests found in Andrews, Moreira and Stock (2007). Given this counter intuitive result, we propose novel two-sided t-tests which are approximately unbiased and can perform as well as the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test of Moreira (2003).

Essays on Spatial Econometrics

Esta dissertação concentra-se nos processos estocásticos espaciais definidos em um reticulado, os chamados modelos do tipo Cliff & Ord. Minha contribuição nesta tese consiste em utilizar aproximações de Edgeworth e saddlepoint para investigar as propriedades em amostras finitas do teste para detectar a presença de dependência espacial em modelos SAR (autoregressivo espacial), e propor uma nova classe de modelos econométricos espaciais na qual os parâmetros que afetam a estrutura da média são distintos dos parâmetros presentes na estrutura da variância do processo. Isto permite uma interpretação mais clara dos parâmetros do modelo, além de generalizar uma proposta de taxonomia feita por Anselin (2003). Eu proponho um estimador para os parâmetros do modelo e derivo a distribuição assintótica do estimador. O modelo sugerido na dissertação fornece uma interpretação interessante ao modelo SARAR, bastante comum na literatura. A investigação das propriedades em amostras finitas dos testes expande com relação a literatura permitindo que a matriz de vizinhança do processo espacial seja uma função não-linear do parâmetro de dependência espacial. A utilização de aproximações ao invés de simulações (mais comum na literatura), permite uma maneira fácil de comparar as propriedades dos testes com diferentes matrizes de vizinhança e corrigir o tamanho ao comparar a potência dos testes. Eu obtenho teste invariante ótimo que é também localmente uniformemente mais potente (LUMPI). Construo o envelope de potência para o teste LUMPI e mostro que ele é virtualmente UMP, pois a potência do teste está muito próxima ao envelope (considerando as estruturas espaciais definidas na dissertação). Eu sugiro um procedimento prático para construir um teste que tem boa potência em uma gama de situações onde talvez o teste LUMPI não tenha boas propriedades. Eu concluo que a potência do teste aumenta com o tamanho da amostra e com o parâmetro de dependência espacial (o que está de acordo com a literatura). Entretanto, disputo a visão consensual que a potência do teste diminui a medida que a matriz de vizinhança fica mais densa. Isto reflete um erro de medida comum na literatura, pois a distância estatística entre a hipótese nula e a alternativa varia muito com a estrutura da matriz. Fazendo a correção, concluo que a potência do teste aumenta com a distância da alternativa à nula, como esperado.

Generic-branded drug competition and the price for pharmaceuticals in procurement auctions

This paper studies the effects of generic drug’s entry on bidding behavior of drug suppliers in procurement auctions for pharmaceuticals, and the consequences on procurer’s price paid for drugs. Using an unique data set on procurement auctions for off-patent drugs organized by Brazilian public bodies, we surprisingly find no statistically difference between bids and prices paid for generic and branded drugs. On the other hand, some branded drug suppliers leave auctions in which there exists a supplier of generics, whereas the remaining ones lower their bidding price. These findings explain why we find that the presence of any supplier of generic drugs in a procurement auction reduces the price paid for pharmaceuticals by 7 percent. To overcome potential estimation bias due to generic’s entry endogeneity, we exploit variation in the number of days between drug’s patent expiration date and the tendering session. The two-stage estimations document the same pattern as the generalized least square estimations find. This evidence indicates that generic competition affects branded supplier’s behavior in public procurement auctions differently from other markets.

Conditional labour supply, quantile functions in Brazil

The estimation of labor supply elasticities has been an important issue m the economic literature. Yet all works have estimated conditional mean labor supply functions only. The objective of this paper is to obtain more information on labor supply, by estimating the conditional quantile labor supply function. vI/e use a sample of prime age urban males employees in Brazil. Two stage estimators are used as the net wage and virtual income are found to be endogenous to the model. Contrary to previous works using conditional mean estimators, it is found that labor supply elasticities vary significantly and asymmetrically across hours of work. vVhile the income and wage elasticities at the standard work week are zero, for those working longer hours the elasticities are negative.

All-pay auctions with endogenous asymmetries

We study N-bidders, asymmetric all-pay auctions under incomplete information. First, we solve for the equilibrium of a parametric model. Each bidder’s valuation is independently drawn from an uniform [0, αi] where the parameter αi may vary across bidders. In this game, asymmetries are exogenously given. Next, a two-stage game where asymmetries are endogenously generated is studied. At the first stage, each bidder chooses the level of an observable, costly, value-enhancing action. The second stage is the bidding sub-game, whose equilibrium is simply the equilibrium of the, previously analyzed, game with exogenous asymmetries. Finally, natural applications of the all pay-auction in the context of political lobbying are considered: the effects of excluding bidders, as well as, the impact of caps on bids.

On the effects of non-tariff measures on Brazilian exports

This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating the effects of non-tariff measures on trade flows, based on the recent literature on gravity models. A two-stage Heckman selection model is applied to the case of Brazilian exports, where the second stage gravity equation is theoretically grounded on the seminal Melitz model of heterogeneous firms. This extended gravity equation highlights the role played by zero trade flows as well as firm heterogeneity in explaining bilateral trade among countries, two factors usually omitted in traditional gravity specifications found in previous literature. Last, it also proposes a economic rationale for the effects of NTM on trade flows, helping to shed some light on its main operating channels under a rather simple Cournot’s duopolistic competition framework.

Creditor's protection and bank loans: lack of competition hamprers bankruptcy reform's effects

This dissertation investigates how credit institutions’ market power limits the effects of creditor protection rules on the interest rate and the spread of bank loans. We use the Brazilian Bankruptcy Reform of June/2005 (BBR) as a legal event affecting the institutional environment of the Brazilian credit market. The law augments creditor protection and aims to improve the access of firms to the credit market and to reduce the cost of borrowing. Either access to credit or the credit cost are also determined by bank industry competition and the market power of suppliers of credit. We derive a simple economic model to study the effect of market power interacting with cost of lending. Using an accounting and operations dataset from July/2004 to December/2007 provided by the Brazilian Central Bank, we estimate that the lack of competition in the bank lending industry hinders the potential reducing effect of the BBR on the interest rate of corporate loans by approximately 30% and on the spread by approximately 23%. We also find no statistical evidence that the BBR affected the concentration level of the Brazilian credit market. We present a brief report on bankruptcy reforms around the world, the changes in the Brazilian legislation and on some recent related articles in our introductory chapter. The second chapter presents the economic model and the testable hypothesis on how the lack of competition in the lending market limits the effects of improved creditor protection. In this chapter, we introduce our empirical strategy using a differences-in-differences model and we estimate the limiting effect of market power on the BBR’s potential to reduce interest rates and on the spread of bank loans. We use the BBR as an exogenous event that affects collateralized corporate loans (treatment group) but that does not affect clean consumer loans (control group) to identify these effects, using different concentration measures. In Chapter 3, we propose a two-stage empirical strategy to handle the H–Statistics proposed by Panzar and Rosse as a measure of market competition. We estimate the limiting effects of the lack of competition in replacing the concentration statistics by the H–Statistics. Chapter 4 presents a structural break test of the concentration index and checks if the BBR affects the dynamic evolution of the concentration index.