Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

Elastic property estimation using Ultrasound Assisted Optical Elastography through Remote Palpation - A simulation study - art. no. 61640Q

We propose an effective elastography technique in which an acoustic radiation force is used for remote palpation to generate localized tissue displacements, which are directly correlated to localized variations of tissue stiffness and are measured using a light probe in the same direction of ultrasound propagation. The experimental geometry has provision to input light beam along the ultrasound propagation direction, and hence it can be prealigned to ensure proper interception of the focal region by the light beam. Tissue-mimicking phantoms with homogeneous and isotropic mechanical properties of normal and malignant breast tissue are considered for the study. Each phantom is insonified by a focusing ultrasound transducer (1 MHz). The focal volume of the transducer and the ultrasound radiation force in the region are estimated through solving acoustic wave propagation through medium assuming average acoustic properties. The forward elastography problem is solved for the region of insonification assuming the Lame's parameters and Poisson's ratio, under Dirichlet boundary conditions which gives a distribution of displacement vectors. The direction of displacement, though presented spatial variation, is predominantly towards the ultrasound propagation direction. Using Monte Carlo (MC) simulation we have traced the photons through the phantom and collected the photons arriving at the detector on the boundary of the object in the direction of ultrasound. The intensity correlations are then computed from detected photons. The intensity correlation function computed through MC simulation showed a modulation whose strength is found to be proportional to the amplitude of displacement and inversely related to the storage (elastic) modulus. It is observed that when the storage modulus in the focal region is increased the computed displacement magnitude, as indicated by the depth of modulation in the intensity autocorrelation, decreased and the trend is approximately exponential.

Anti-amyloidogenic property of leaf aqueous extract of Caesalpinia crista

Amyloid beta (A beta) is the major etiological factor implicated in Alzheimer's disease (AD). A beta(42) self-assembles to form oligomers and fibrils via multiple aggregation process. The recent studies aimed to decrease A beta levels or prevention of A beta aggregation which are the major targets for therapeutic intervention. Natural products as alternatives for AD drug discovery are a current trend. We evidenced that Caesalpinia crista leaf aqueous extract has anti-amyloidogenic potential. The studies on pharmacological properties of C. crista are very limited. Our study focused on ability of C. crista leaf aqueous extract on the prevention of (i) the formation of oligomers and aggregates from monomers (Phase I: A beta(42) + extract co-incubation); (ii) the formation of fibrils from oligomers (Phase II: extract added after oligomers formation); and (iii) dis-aggregation of pre-formedfibrils (Phase III: aqueous extract added to matured fibrils and incubated for 9 days). The aggregation kinetics was monitored using thioflavin-T assay and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The results showed that C. crista aqueous extract could able to inhibit the A beta(42) aggregation from monomers and oligomers and also able todis-aggregate the pre-formed fibrils. The study provides an insight on finding new natural products for AD therapeutics. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Magnetotransport of Dirac fermions on the surface of a topological insulator

We study the properties of Dirac fermions on the surface of a topological insulator in the presence of crossed electric and magnetic fields. We provide an exact solution to this problem and demonstrate that, in contrast to their counterparts in graphene, these Dirac fermions allow relative tuning of the orbital and Zeeman effects of an applied magnetic field by a crossed electric field along the surface. We also elaborate and extend our earlier results on normal-metal-magnetic film-normal metal (NMN) and normal-metal-barrier-magnetic film (NBM) junctions of topological insulators [S. Mondal, D. Sen, K. Sengupta, and R. Shankar, Phys. Rev. Lett. 104, 046403 (2010)]. For NMN junctions, we show that for Dirac fermions with Fermi velocity vF, the transport can be controlled using the exchange field J of a ferromagnetic film over a region of width d. The conductance of such a junction changes from oscillatory to a monotonically decreasing function of d beyond a critical J which leads to the possible realization of magnetic switches using these junctions. For NBM junctions with a potential barrier of width d and potential V-0, we find that beyond a critical J, the criteria of conductance maxima changes from chi=eV(0)d/h upsilon(F)=n pi to chi=(n+1/2)pi for integer n. Finally, we compute the subgap tunneling conductance of a normal-metal-magnetic film-superconductor junctions on the surface of a topological insulator and show that the position of the peaks of the zero-bias tunneling conductance can be tuned using the magnetization of the ferromagnetic film. We point out that these phenomena have no analogs in either conventional two-dimensional materials or Dirac electrons in graphene and suggest experiments to test our theory.

Topological analysis off charge density distribution in concomitant polymorphs of 3-acetylcoumarin, a case off packing polymorphism

Detailed investigation of the charge density distribution in concomitant polymorphs of 3-acetylcoumarin in terms of experimental and theoretical densities shows significant differences in the intermolecular features when analyzed based on the topological properties via the quantum theory of atoms in molecules. The two forms, triclinic and monoclinic (Form A and Form B), pack in the crystal lattice via weak C-H---O and C-H---pi interactions. Form A results in a head-to-head molecular stack, while Form B generates a head-to-tail stack. Form A crystallizes in PI (Z' = 2) and Form B crystallizes in P2(1)/n (Z = 1). The electron density maps of the polymorphs demonstrate the differences in the nature of the charge density distribution in general. The charges derived from experimental and theoretical analysis show significant differences with respect to the polymorphic forms. The molecular dipole moments differ significantly for the two forms. The lattice energies evaluated at the HF and DFT (B3LYP) methods with 6-31G** basis set for the two forms clearly suggest that Form A is the thermodynamically stable form as compared to Form B. Mapping of electrostatic potential over the molecular surface shows dominant variations in the electronegative region, which bring out the differences between the two forms.

Topological defects in crystals: A density-wave theory

A new approach for describing dislocations and other topological defects in crystals, based on the density wave theory of Ramakrishnan and Yussouff is presented. Quantitative calculations are discussed in brief for the order parameter profiles, the atomic configuration and the free energy of a screw dislocation with Burgers vector b = (a/2, a/2,a/2 ) in a bcc solid. Our results for the free energy of the dislocation in a crystal of sizeR, when expressed as (λb 2/4π) ln (αR/|b|) whereλ is the shear elastic constant, yield, for example, the valueα ⋍ 1·85 for sodium at its freezing temperature (371°K). The density distribution in the presence of the dislocation shows that the dislocation core has a columnar character. To our knowledge, this study represents the first calculation of dislocation structure, including the core, within the framework of an order parameter theory incorporating thermal effects.

Varistor property of n‐BaTiO3 based current limiters

Highly stable varistor (voltage-limiting) property is observed for ceramics based on donor doped (Ba1-xSrx)Ti1-yZryO3 (x < 0.35, y < 0.05), when the ambient temperature (T(a)) is above the Curie point (T(c)). If T(a) < T(c), the same ceramics showed stable current-limiting behavior. The leakage current and the breakdown voltage as well as the nonlinearity coefficient (alpha = 30-50) could be varied with the T(c)-shifting components, the grain boundary layer modifiers and the post-sintering annealing. Analyses of the current-voltage relations show that grain boundary layer conduction at T(a) < T(c) corresponds to tunneling across asymmetric barriers formed under steady-state joule heating. At T(a) > T(c), trap-related conduction gives way to tunneling across symmetric barriers as the field strength increases.

Path integral quantisation of topological field theories

Conditions for quantum topological invariance of classically topological field theories in the path integral formulation are discussed. Both the three-dimensional Chern-Simons system and a Witten-type topological field theory are shown to satisfy these conditions.

Euclideanization, topological theories, higher dimensions and all that

It is shown that the euclideanized Yukawa theory, with the Dirac fermion belonging to an irreducible representation of the Lorentz group, is not bounded from below. A one parameter family of supersymmetric actions is presented which continuously interpolates between the N = 2 SSYM and the N = 2 supersymmetric topological theory. In order to obtain a theory which is bounded from below and satisfies Osterwalder-Schrader positivity, the Dirac fermion should belong to a reducible representation of the Lorentz group and the scalar fields have to be reinterpreted as the extra components of a higher dimensional vector field.

Evidence of gate-tunable topological excitations in two-dimensional electron systems

We report experimental observations of a new mechanism of charge transport in two-dimensional electron systems (2DESs) in the presence of strong Coulomb interaction and disorder. We show that at low enough temperature the conductivity tends to zero at a nonzero carrier density, which represents the point of essential singularity in a Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless-like transition. Our experiments with many 2DESs in GaAs/AlGaAs heterostructures suggest that the charge transport at low carrier densities is due to the melting of an underlying ordered ground state through proliferation of topological defects. Independent measurement of low-frequency conductivity noise supports this scenario.