Overthrowing Secrecy: The Spitzenkandidaten experiment and a new chance for a European party system. CEPS Commentary, 4 August 2014

The Spitzenkandidaten experiment has been at the centre of a heated debate for several months now, prompting much speculation as to the changes it will bring to the balance of power between the EU institutions. But the real coup d’état has been directed against the old process of appointing the European Commission President behind closed doors. Although the new procedure entails “a number of political, institutional and ‘thus’ constitutional ambiguities”, according to the authors of this commentary, it has rendered that process more transparent, if not more democratic – and will almost certainly endure to the next European elections in 2019 and beyond. As a result, they conclude that the new procedure is likely to trigger important changes in Europe’s political parties and elections.

Turkey votes: Part III - President Erdoğan - A foregone conclusion? EPC Commentary, 10 July 2014

On 1 July, after months of speculation, Turkey’s Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, announced he would run in the country’s first direct presidential elections on 10 August. Erdoğan, who has dominated Turkish politics for over a decade, is viewed as the clear favourite. With current polls suggesting he could take as much as 52% of the vote, an outright victory in the first round is possible. His main rival, Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu, is very much the underdog. Until recently, an international diplomat with no experience in politics, he is the joint candidate of Turkey’s two main opposition parties, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). Selahattin Demirtaş, the Co-Chairman of the Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party (HDP) is also in the race, but is not expected to make it into double digits. The Kurdish vote however, could prove to be crucial if the ballot goes to a second round on 24 August. With Erdoğan wanting to increase Presidential powers, the stakes are high. With his belief in majoritarian rule, and increasingly authoritarian style of governance there has been an erosion of democracy and civil liberties. Many observers fear this trend may increase.

Russian sanctions against Moldova. Minor effects, major potential. OSW COMMENTARY No. 152, 2014-11-06

Russia has been Moldova’s main trade partner and Russian capital has accounted for a large part of its foreign investments, dominating in the energy and the banking sectors. Moreover, Russia has been a key job market for Moldovan expatriate workers. In the economic sphere, this is making Moldova unilaterally dependent on Russia. Moscow has been attempting to exploit this situation to put pressure on the authorities in Chișinău for quite some time. In recent months Russia has increasingly used instruments for exerting economic pressure on Moldova, as a means of responding to the current authorities’ pro-Western policy. A key element of this policy was Moldova’s signing on 27 June 2014 of the Association Agreement with the EU (which came into force on 1 September 2014). Over the last year, Russia has implemented a number of import restrictions on Moldovan goods. The aim of the Russian actions is to fuel social disappointment, and ultimately – to prevent the pro-European coalition currently in power from winning the parliamentary elections scheduled for 30 November 2014. Another aim might be to convince the Moldovan authorities to suspend the implementation of the Association Agreement – a plan openly put forward by Vladimir Putin during the CIS summit in Minsk on 10 October 2014. So far, however, the Russian economic sanctions have failed to produce the expected results. Support for the pro-European parties has been high, and there is little chance that the pro-Russian groups might achieve a parliamentary majority. It is not inconceivable, then, that in the upcoming months Moscow might decide to resort to other, more potent instruments of economic pressure such as speculation on the financial market, carried out as part of its de facto control over the banking sector. Another possibility is further tightening of trade restrictions, issuing expatriate workers from Russia or using Moldova’s dependence on Russian energy.

The war of nerves with Iran - consequences for the South Caucasus and Russia. OSW Commentary No. 75, 2012-04-25

Tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme have risen considerably in recent months. This has been visible in numerous threats of – and much speculation about – an imminent Israeli (and US) attack on Iran’s nuclear installations. In this context, the support for the attacks that the countries of the South Caucasus (and Azerbaijan in particular) could provide has been the subject of lively debate, as has been the prospect of a Russian political and military offensive in the Caucasus in response to the attacks on Iran. It seems that the ongoing war campaign in the media has been aimed primarily at putting pressure on Iran and the international community to find a political solution to the Iranian problem. This also applies to the Caucasus’s involvement in the campaign. Given the outcome of the Istanbul round of talks on a political solution to the Iranian issue (14 April), which warrants moderate optimism, the threat of a conflict now appears more distant and this also indirectly proves the effectiveness of the campaign. The war of nerves with Iran, however, is already now actually affecting the stability of the Southern Caucasus. While it seems that Azerbaijan is not Israel’s partner in the preparations to attacks, and that there is no real link between the Iranian problem and the ongoing and planned movements of Russian troops in the Caucasus, the tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan are indeed high. Moreover, the global image of the Caucasus is deteriorating, the USA’s position in the region is becoming more complicated, and Russia’s room for manoeuvre is expanding.

Will Cameron get what he wants? Anticipating reactions to Britain’s EU reform proposals. CEPS Commentary, 29 October 2015

After months of speculation about the British Prime Minister’s specific demands in terms of the “renegotiation” of the UK’s relationship with the EU, David Cameron has bowed to pressure from the heads of state or government of the other EU member states and committed himself to setting out the UK’s specific “concerns” in writing by early November. While we cannot be certain of the contents of David Cameron’s missive to the EU, his recent pronouncements before Parliament set out an agenda whose contours have become quite clear. In this Commentary the authors consider how far the other EU member states might be willing to accommodate Cameron’s demands and provide him with the political capital he seeks to lead the ‘in’ campaign. They distinguish four different attitudes among EU countries, and advocate a constructive approach that sets the scene for a Convention after 2017 – one that opens the treaty for a revision that could accommodate both the British demands for an ‘opt-out’ from ever closer union and gives leeway to those who wish to integrate further. Putting emphasis on strengthening the single market in the more immediate term would allow the Prime Minister to show his home audience that he is a leading reformer and that the EU gives oxygen to the British economy.This is an obvious area where he might be able to seal deals during the UK’s Presidency of the Council of the EU in the second half of 2017. The authors also consider what the European Council Conclusions on the UK’s wish list for EU reform might look like, given that any treaty revision before the time set for the UK referendum is unattainable. They present the results of a two-day simulation exercise involving a cross-section of national experts and present mock European Council Conclusions on the areas of ever closer union; the role of national parliaments; competitiveness; economic and monetary integration; and the free movement of labour.

Brexit and climate policy: Political choices will determine the future of EU-UK cooperation. CEPS Commentary, 15 July 2016

Ever since the electorate of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union on June 23rd, there has been much discussion and speculation over what the decision implies for climate policy in the EU. This commentary looks at what may happen and the possible implications at various levels: globally at the level of the United Nations, the EU level and the implications for the UK.

Petrography, chemistry and magnetic properties of ODP Leg 115 basalts

A detailed study of the Fe-Ti oxides in four basalt samples-one from each of the four holes drilled into basement on Ocean Drilling Program Leg 115 (Sites 706, 707, 713, and 715) has been performed. Ilmenite is present only in samples from Sites 706 and 715. In the sample from Site 715, Ti-magnetite intergrowths are characteristic of subaerial (?) high-temperature oxy-exsolution; Ti-magnetite in the other three samples has experienced pervasive low-temperature oxidation to Ti-maghemite, as evidenced by the double-humped, irreversible, saturation magnetization vs. temperature (Js/T) curves. The bulk susceptibility of these samples, which are similar in terms of major element chemistry, varies by a factor of ~20 and correlates semiquantitatively with the modal abundance of Fe-Ti spinel, as determined by image analysis with an electron microprobe. The variation in Fe-Ti oxide abundance correlates with average grain size: fine-grained samples contain less Fe-Ti oxide. This prompts the speculation that the crystallization rate may also influence Fe-Ti oxide abundance.

Latest Cretaceous to Late Paleocene radiolarian biostratigraphy from the New Zealand region

The scarcity of records of Early Paleocene radiolarians has meant that while radiolarian biostratigraphy is firmly established as an important tool for correlation, there has been a long-standing gap between established zonations for the Cretaceous and from latest Paleocene to Recent. It has also led to considerable speculation over the level of faunal change across the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. Consequently, the discovery of rich and diverse radiolarian assemblages in well-delineated K/T boundary sections within siliceous limestones of the Amuri Limestone Group in eastern Marlborough, New Zealand, is of great significance for biostratigraphy and K/T boundary research. This initial report is restricted to introducing a new latest Cretaceous to mid Late Paleocene zonation based on the radiolarian succession at four of these sections and a re-examination of faunas from coeval sediments at DSDP Site 208 (Lord Howe Rise). Three new Paleocene species are described: Amphisphaera aotea, Amphisphaera kina and Stichomitra wero. Six new interval zones are defined by the first appearances of the nominate species. In ascending order these are: Lithomelissa? hoplites Foreman (Zone RK9, Cretaceous), Amphisphaera aotea n. sp. (Zone RP1, Paleocene), Amphisphaera kina n. sp. (RP2), Stichomitra granulata Petrushevskaya (RP3), Buryellaforemanae petrushevskaya (RP4) and Buryella tetradica (RP5). Good age control from foraminifera and calcareous nannofossils permits close correlation with established microfossil zonations. Where age control is less reliable, radiolarian events are used to substantially improve correlation between the sections. No evidence is found for mass extinction of radiolarians at the end of the Cretaceous. However, the K/T boundary does mark a change from nassellarian to spumellarian dominance, due to a sudden influx of actinommids, which effectively reduces the relative abundance of many Cretaceous survivors. An accompanying influx of diatoms in the basal Paleocene of Marlborough, together with evidence for an increase of total radiolarian abundance, suggests siliceous plankton productivity increased across the K/T boundary. Possible causes for this apparently localised phenomenon are briefly discussed.

Ueber eine internationale entente der groszen landwirthschaftlichen verbände zur besseren regulirung der getreidepriese ...

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How I made $2,000,000 in the stock market.

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The security racket,

Lettered on cover: Behind closed doors with E. Jay Comer.

Tales from "Blackwood"; being the most famous series of stories ever published, especially selected from that celebrated English publication.

v.l. Francillon, R.E. Left-handed Elsa. The great earthquake at Lisbon. Lever, Charles. Some one pays. Sir Tray: an Arthurian idyl.--v.2. Hamley, E.B. Shakespeare's funeral. Lockhart, L.W.M. A night with the Volunteers of Strathkinahan. The philosopher's baby. Oliphant, M.O.W. The secret chamber.--v.3 Majendle, Lady Margaret. A French speculation. Moncrieff, H.J. Rufus Hickman of St. Botolph's. Lewis. C.L. Hans Preller: a legend of the Rhine falls. Kingsley, Maurice. The Puerto de Medina. Harcourt, Alfred. Jack and Minory.--v.4. Considine, Bob. What I did at Belgrade. Shand, A.I. Wrecked off the Riff coast. Dollie and the two Smiths. Majendle, Lady Margaret. A railway journey.--v.5. The missing bills: an unsolved mystery. Cheadle, W.B. My hunt of the silver fox. Narrative of Prince Charlie's escape, by one of his companions. A Fenian alarm. Lindau, Rudolph. The philosopher's pendulum.--v.6. The battle of Dorking. Late for the train. Aytoun, W.E. ...

Making money in the stock market,

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Short selling of securities; hearing before the Committee on the judiciary, House of representatives, 72d Congress, first session, on H.R.4, H.R.4604, H.R.4638, H.R.4639. February 15, 17, 19, 24, 1932.

Cover title.

The oil bubble.

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