Comparison of 2 frailty indexes for prediction of falls, disability, fractures, and death in older women.

BACKGROUND: Frailty, as defined by the index derived from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS index), predicts risk of adverse outcomes in older adults. Use of this index, however, is impractical in clinical practice. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study in 6701 women 69 years or older to compare the predictive validity of a simple frailty index with the components of weight loss, inability to rise from a chair 5 times without using arms, and reduced energy level (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF index]) with that of the CHS index with the components of unintentional weight loss, poor grip strength, reduced energy level, slow walking speed, and low level of physical activity. Women were classified as robust, of intermediate status, or frail using each index. Falls were reported every 4 months for 1 year. Disability (> or =1 new impairment in performing instrumental activities of daily living) was ascertained at 4(1/2) years, and fractures and deaths were ascertained during 9 years of follow-up. Area under the curve (AUC) statistics from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and -2 log likelihood statistics were compared for models containing the CHS index vs the SOF index. RESULTS: Increasing evidence of frailty as defined by either the CHS index or the SOF index was similarly associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes. Frail women had a higher age-adjusted risk of recurrent falls (odds ratio, 2.4), disability (odds ratio, 2.2-2.8), nonspine fracture (hazard ratio, 1.4-1.5), hip fracture (hazard ratio, 1.7-1.8), and death (hazard ratio, 2.4-2.7) (P < .001 for all models). The AUC comparisons revealed no differences between models with the CHS index vs the SOF index in discriminating falls (AUC = 0.61 for both models; P = .66), disability (AUC = 0.64; P = .23), nonspine fracture (AUC = 0.55; P = .80), hip fracture (AUC = 0.63; P = .64), or death (AUC = 0.72; P = .10). Results were similar when -2 log likelihood statistics were compared. CONCLUSION: The simple SOF index predicts risk of falls, disability, fracture, and death as well as the more complex CHS index and may provide a useful definition of frailty to identify older women at risk of adverse health outcomes in clinical practice.

Predicting outcome after acute basilar artery occlusion based on admission characteristics.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a simple prognostic model to predict outcome at 1 month after acute basilar artery occlusion (BAO) with readily available predictors. METHODS: The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS) is a prospective, observational, international registry of consecutive patients who presented with an acute symptomatic and radiologically confirmed BAO. We considered predictors available at hospital admission in multivariable logistic regression models to predict poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score 4-5 or death) at 1 month. We used receiver operator characteristic curves to assess the discriminatory performance of the models. RESULTS: Of the 619 patients, 429 (69%) had a poor outcome at 1 month: 74 (12%) had a mRS score of 4, 115 (19%) had a mRS score of 5, and 240 (39%) had died. The main predictors of poor outcome were older age, absence of hyperlipidemia, presence of prodromal minor stroke, higher NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, and longer time to treatment. A prognostic model that combined demographic data and stroke risk factors had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.64. This performance improved by including findings from the neurologic examination (AUC 0.79) and CT imaging (AUC 0.80). A risk chart showed predictions of poor outcome at 1 month varying from 25 to 96%. CONCLUSION: Poor outcome after BAO can be reliably predicted by a simple model that includes older age, absence of hyperlipidemia, presence of prodromal minor stroke, higher NIHSS score, and longer time to treatment.

Is hospital discharge administrative data an appropriate source of information for cancer registries purposes? Some insights from four Spanish registries

Background. The use of hospital discharge administrative data (HDAD) has been recommended for automating, improving, even substituting, population-based cancer registries. The frequency of false positive and false negative cases recommends local validation. Methods. The aim of this study was to detect newly diagnosed, false positive and false negative cases of cancer from hospital discharge claims, using four Spanish population-based cancer registries as the gold standard. Prostate cancer was used as a case study. Results. A total of 2286 incident cases of prostate cancer registered in 2000 were used for validation. In the most sensitive algorithm (that using five diagnostic codes), estimates for Sensitivity ranged from 14.5% (CI95% 10.3-19.6) to 45.7% (CI95% 41.4-50.1). In the most predictive algorithm (that using five diagnostic and five surgical codes) Positive Predictive Value estimates ranged from 55.9% (CI95% 42.4-68.8) to 74.3% (CI95% 67.0-80.6). The most frequent reason for false positive cases was the number of prevalent cases inadequately considered as newly diagnosed cancers, ranging from 61.1% to 82.3% of false positive cases. The most frequent reason for false negative cases was related to the number of cases not attended in hospital settings. In this case, figures ranged from 34.4% to 69.7% of false negative cases, in the most predictive algorithm. Conclusions. HDAD might be a helpful tool for cancer registries to reach their goals. The findings suggest that, for automating cancer registries, algorithms combining diagnoses and procedures are the best option. However, for cancer surveillance purposes, in those cancers like prostate cancer in which care is not only hospital-based, combining inpatient and outpatient information will be required.

A simple approach improving the performance of urine reagent strips for rapid diagnosis of urinary schistosomiasis in Nigerian schoolchildren

In Nigeria, schistosomiasis, caused predominantly by the species Schistosoma haematobium, is highly endemic in resource-poor communities. We performed a school-based survey in two rural communities in Osun State (Southwestern Nigeria) and assessed macrohaematuria, microhaematuria and proteinuria as indirect indicators for the presence of disease. Urine samples were inspected macroscopically for haematuria and screened for microhaematuria and proteinuria using urine reagent strips. The microscopic examination of schistosome eggs was used as the gold standard for diagnosis. In total, 447 schoolchildren were included in this study and had a 51% prevalence of urinary schistosomiasis. The sensitivity of microhaematuria (68%) and proteinuria (53%) for infection with S. haematobium was relatively low. In patients with a heavy infection (>500 eggs/10 mL), the sensitivity of microhaematuria was high (95%). When the presence of macrohaematuria and the concomitant presence of microhaematuria and proteinuria were combined, it revealed a sensitivity of 63%, a specificity of 93% and a positive predictive value of 91%. Macrohaematuria also showed high specificity (96%) and a positive predictive value of 92%, while sensitivity was < 50%. These data show that combining urine reagent strip tests (presence of proteinuria and microhaematuria) and information on macrohaematuria increased the accuracy of the rapid diagnosis of urinary schistosomiasis in an endemic rural West African setting. This simple approach can be used to increase the quality of monitoring of schistosomiasis in schoolchildren.

Disparate activation of the coronary sinus and inferior left atrium during atrial tachycardia after persistent atrial fibrillation ablation: prevalence, pitfalls, and impact on mapping.

INTRODUCTION: Persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation may lead to partial disconnection of the coronary sinus (CS). As a result, disparate activation sequences of the local CS versus contiguous left atrium (LA) may be observed during atrial tachycardia (AT). We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of this phenomenon and its impact on activation mapping. METHODS: AT occurring after persistent AF ablation were investigated in 74 consecutive patients. Partial CS disconnection during AT was suspected when double potentials with disparate activation sequences were observed on the CS catheter. Endocardial mapping facing CS bipoles was performed to differentiate LA far-field from local CS potentials. RESULTS: A total of 149 ATs were observed. Disparate LA-CS activations were apparent in 20 ATs after magnifying the recording scale (13%). The most common pattern (90%) was distal to proximal endocardial LA activation against proximal to distal CS activation, the latter involving the whole CS or its distal part. Perimitral macroreentry was more common when disparate LA-CS activations were observed (67% vs 29%; P = 0.002). Partial CS disconnection also resulted in "pseudo" mitral isthmus (MI) block during LA appendage pacing in 20% of patients as local CS activation was proximal to distal despite distal to proximal activation of the contiguous LA. CONCLUSION: Careful analysis of CS recordings during AT following persistent AF ablation often reveals disparate patterns of activation. Recognizing when endocardial LA activation occurs in the opposite direction to the more obvious local CS signals is critical to avoid misleading interpretations during mapping of AT and evaluation of MI block.

Optimization of treatment with interferon beta in multiple sclerosis. Usefulness of automatic system application criteria

Background. A software based tool has been developed (Optem) to allow automatize the recommendations of the Canadian Multiple Sclerosis Working Group for optimizing MS treatment in order to avoid subjective interpretation. METHODS: Treatment Optimization Recommendations (TORs) were applied to our database of patients treated with IFN beta1a IM. Patient data were assessed during year 1 for disease activity, and patients were assigned to 2 groups according to TOR: "change treatment" (CH) and "no change treatment" (NCH). These assessments were then compared to observed clinical outcomes for disease activity over the following years. RESULTS: We have data on 55 patients. The "change treatment" status was assigned to 22 patients, and "no change treatment" to 33 patients. The estimated sensitivity and specificity according to last visit status were 73.9% and 84.4%. During the following years, the Relapse Rate was always higher in the "change treatment" group than in the "no change treatment" group (5 y; CH: 0.7, NCH: 0.07; p < 0.001, 12 m - last visit; CH: 0.536, NCH: 0.34). We obtained the same results with the EDSS (4 y; CH: 3.53, NCH: 2.55, annual progression rate in 12 m - last visit; CH: 0.29, NCH: 0.13). CONCLUSION: Applying TOR at the first year of therapy allowed accurate prediction of continued disease activity in relapses and disability progression.

Anti-Toxoplasma gondii secretory IgA in tears of patients with ocular toxoplasmosis: immunodiagnostic validation by ELISA

Toxoplasma gondii causes posterior uveitis and the specific diagnosis is based on clinical criteria. The presence of anti-T. gondii secretory IgA (sIgA) antibodies in patients' tears has been reported and an association was found between ocular toxoplasmosis and the anti-T. gondii sIgA isotype in Brazilian patients. The purpose of this study was to provide an objective validation of the published ELISA test for determining the presence of anti-T. gondii sIgA in the tears of individuals with ocular toxoplasmosis. Tears from 156 patients with active posterior uveitis were analysed; 82 of them presented characteristics of ocular toxoplasmosis (standard lesion) and 74 patients presented uveitis due to other aetiologies. Cases of active posterior uveitis were considered standard when a new inflammatory focus satellite to old retinochoroidal scars was observed. The determination of anti-T. gondii sIgA was made using an ELISA test with crude tachyzoite antigenic extracts. Tears were collected without previous stimulation. Detection of sIgA showed 65.9% sensitivity (95% CI = 54.5-74.4), 71.6% specificity (95% CI = 59.8-81.2), a positive predictive value of 72% (95% CI = 60.3-81.5) and a negative predictive value of 65.4% (95% CI = 54.0-75.4). sIgA reactivity was higher in the tears of patients with active posterior uveitis due to T. gondii (p < 0.05). The test is useful for differentiating active posterior uveitis due to toxoplasmosis from uveitis caused by other diseases.

Hypermethylated 14-3-3-sigma and ESR1 gene promoters in serum as candidate biomarkers for the diagnosis and treatment efficacy of breast cancer metastasis

Background: Numerous hypermethylated genes have been reported in breast cancer, and the silencing of these genes plays an important role in carcinogenesis, tumor progression and diagnosis. These hypermethylated promoters are very rarely found in normal breast. It has been suggested that aberrant hypermethylation may be useful as a biomarker, with implications for breast cancer etiology, diagnosis, and management. The relationship between primary neoplasm and metastasis remains largely unknown. There has been no comprehensive comparative study on the clinical usefulness of tumor-associated methylated DNA biomarkers in primary breast carcinoma and metastatic breast carcinoma. The objective of the present study was to investigate the association between clinical extension of breast cancer and methylation status of Estrogen Receptor1 (ESR1) and Stratifin (14-3-3-σ) gene promoters in disease-free and metastatic breast cancer patients. Methods: We studied two cohorts of patients: 77 patients treated for breast cancer with no signs of disease, and 34 patients with metastatic breast cancer. DNA was obtained from serum samples, and promoter methylation status was determined by using DNA bisulfite modification and quantitative methylation-specific PCR. Results: Serum levels of methylated gene promoter 14-3-3-σ significantly differed between Control and Metastatic Breast Cancer groups (P < 0.001), and between Disease-Free and Metastatic Breast Cancer groups (P < 0.001). The ratio of the 14-3-3-σ level before the first chemotherapy cycle to the level just before administration of the second chemotherapy cycle was defined as the Biomarker Response Ratio [BRR]. We calculated BRR values for the "continuous decline" and "rise-and-fall" groups. Subsequent ROC analysis showed a sensitivity of 75% (95% CI: 47.6 - 86.7) and a specificity of 66.7% (95% CI: 41.0 - 86.7) to discriminate between the groups for a cut-off level of BRR = 2.39. The area under the ROC curve (Z = 0.804 ± 0.074) indicates that this test is a good approach to post-treatment prognosis. Conclusions: The relationship of 14-3-3-σ with breast cancer metastasis and progression found in this study suggests a possible application of 14-3-3-σ as a biomarker to screen for metastasis and to follow up patients treated for metastatic breast cancer, monitoring their disease status and treatment response.

Can accelerometry accurately predict the energy cost of uphill/downhill walking?

To evaluate whether an activity monitor based on body acceleration measurement can accurately assess the energy cost of the human locomotion, 12 subjects walked a combination of three different speeds (preferred speed +/- 1 km/h) and seven slopes (-15 to +15% by steps of 5%) on a treadmill. Body accelerations were recorded using a triaxial accelerometer attached to the low back. The mean of the integral of the vector magnitude (norm) of the accelerations (mIAN) was calculated. VO2 was measured using continuous indirect calorimetry. When the results were separately analysed for each incline, mIAN was correlated to VO2 (average r = 0.87, p<0.001, n = 36). VO2 was not significantly correlated to mIAN when data were globally analysed (n = 252). Large relative errors occurred when predicted VO2 (estimated from data of level walking) was compared with measured VO2 for different inclines (-53% at +15% incline, to +55% at -15% incline). It is concluded that without an external measurement of the slope, the standard method of analysis of body accelerations cannot accurately predict the energy cost of uphill or downhill walking.

A prediction rule to identify low-risk patients with pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: A simple prognostic model could help identify patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of death and are candidates for outpatient treatment. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 retrospectively identified inpatients who had a discharge diagnosis of pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our rule to predict 30-day mortality using classification tree analysis and patient data routinely available at initial examination as potential predictor variables. We used data from a European prospective study to externally validate the rule among 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism. We determined mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across derivation and validation samples. RESULTS: Our final model consisted of 10 patient factors (age > or = 70 years; history of cancer, heart failure, chronic lung disease, chronic renal disease, and cerebrovascular disease; and clinical variables of pulse rate > or = 110 beats/min, systolic blood pressure < 100 mm Hg, altered mental status, and arterial oxygen saturation < 90%). Patients with none of these factors were defined as low risk. The 30-day mortality rates for low-risk patients were 0.6%, 1.5%, and 0% in the derivation, internal validation, and external validation samples, respectively. The rates of nonfatal adverse medical outcomes were less than 1% among low-risk patients across all study samples. CONCLUSIONS: This simple prediction rule accurately identifies patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of short-term mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Prospective validation of this rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid for outpatient treatment.

Evaluation of polymerase chain reaction in the routine diagnosis for tegumentary leishmaniasis in a referral centre

The present study investigated the diagnostic value of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) performed in parallel to conventional methods at an American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) referral centre for diagnosis. Accuracy parameters for PCR were calculated using 130 patients with confirmed ATL (ATL group), 15 patients established with other diseases and 23 patients with a lesion suggestive of ATL, but without parasitological confirmation (NDEF group). PCR showed 92.3% sensitivity, 93.3% specificity, a 99.2% positive predictive value and a 13.84 positive likelihood ratio. In the NDEF group, PCR confirmed ATL in 13 of the 23 patients, seven of whom responded to leishmaniasis treatment and six who presented spontaneous healing of the lesion. PCR should be included in the routine diagnostic procedures for ATL, especially for cases found to be negative by conventional methods.

Testing the validity of a set of diagnostic criteria for sensory neuronopathies: a francophone collaborative study.

There are no validated criteria for the diagnosis of sensory neuronopathy (SNN) yet. In a preliminary monocenter study a set of criteria relying on clinical and electrophysiological data showed good sensitivity and specificity for a diagnosis of probable SNN. The aim of this study was to test these criteria on a French multicenter study. 210 patients with sensory neuropathies from 15 francophone reference centers for neuromuscular diseases were included in the study with an expert diagnosis of non-SNN, SNN or suspected SNN according to the investigations performed in these centers. Diagnosis was obtained independently from the set of criteria to be tested. The expert diagnosis was taken as the reference against which the proposed SNN criteria were tested. The set relied on clinical and electrophysiological data easily obtainable with routine investigations. 9/61 (16.4 %) of non-SNN patients, 23/36 (63.9 %) of suspected SNN, and 102/113 (90.3 %) of SNN patients according to the expert diagnosis were classified as SNN by the criteria. The SNN criteria tested against the expert diagnosis in the SNN and non-SNN groups had 90.3 % (102/113) sensitivity, 85.2 % (52/61) specificity, 91.9 % (102/111) positive predictive value, and 82.5 % (52/63) negative predictive value. Discordance between the expert diagnosis and the SNN criteria occurred in 20 cases. After analysis of these cases, 11 could be reallocated to a correct diagnosis in accordance with the SNN criteria. The proposed criteria may be useful for the diagnosis of probable SNN in patients with sensory neuropathy. They can be reached with simple clinical and paraclinical investigations.

Brachial artery peak velocity variation to predict fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients

INTRODUCTION Although several parameters have been proposed to predict the hemodynamic response to fluid expansion in critically ill patients, most of them are invasive or require the use of special monitoring devices. The aim of this study is to determine whether noninvasive evaluation of respiratory variation of brachial artery peak velocity flow measured using Doppler ultrasound could predict fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients. METHODS We conducted a prospective clinical research in a 17-bed multidisciplinary ICU and included 38 mechanically ventilated patients for whom fluid administration was planned due to the presence of acute circulatory failure. Volume expansion (VE) was performed with 500 mL of a synthetic colloid. Patients were classified as responders if stroke volume index (SVi) increased >or= 15% after VE. The respiratory variation in Vpeakbrach (DeltaVpeakbrach) was calculated as the difference between maximum and minimum values of Vpeakbrach over a single respiratory cycle, divided by the mean of the two values and expressed as a percentage. Radial arterial pressure variation (DeltaPPrad) and stroke volume variation measured using the FloTrac/Vigileo system (DeltaSVVigileo), were also calculated. RESULTS VE increased SVi by >or= 15% in 19 patients (responders). At baseline, DeltaVpeakbrach, DeltaPPrad and DeltaSVVigileo were significantly higher in responder than nonresponder patients [14 vs 8%; 18 vs. 5%; 13 vs 8%; P < 0.0001, respectively). A DeltaVpeakbrach value >10% predicted fluid responsiveness with a sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 95%. A DeltaPPrad value >10% and a DeltaSVVigileo >11% predicted volume responsiveness with a sensitivity of 95% and 79%, and a specificity of 95% and 89%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Respiratory variations in brachial artery peak velocity could be a feasible tool for the noninvasive assessment of fluid responsiveness in patients with mechanical ventilatory support and acute circulatory failure. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT00890071.

DAS-28-based EULAR response and HAQ improvement in rheumatoid arthritis patients switching between TNF antagonists

INTRODUCTION No definitive data are available regarding the value of switching to an alternative TNF antagonist in rheumatoid arthritis patients who fail to respond to the first one. The aim of this study was to evaluate treatment response in a clinical setting based on HAQ improvement and EULAR response criteria in RA patients who were switched to a second or a third TNF antagonist due to failure with the first one. METHODS This was an observational, prospective study of a cohort of 417 RA patients treated with TNF antagonists in three university hospitals in Spain between January 1999 and December 2005. A database was created at the participating centres, with well-defined operational instructions. The main outcome variables were analyzed using parametric or non-parametric tests depending on the level of measurement and distribution of each variable. RESULTS Mean (+/- SD) DAS-28 on starting the first, second and third TNF antagonist was 5.9 (+/- 2.0), 5.1 (+/- 1.5) and 6.1 (+/- 1.1). At the end of follow-up, it decreased to 3.3 (+/- 1.6; Delta = -2.6; p > 0.0001), 4.2 (+/- 1.5; Delta = -1.1; p = 0.0001) and 5.4 (+/- 1.7; Delta = -0.7; p = 0.06). For the first TNF antagonist, DAS-28-based EULAR response level was good in 42% and moderate in 33% of patients. The second TNF antagonist yielded a good response in 20% and no response in 53% of patients, while the third one yielded a good response in 28% and no response in 72%. Mean baseline HAQ on starting the first, second and third TNF antagonist was 1.61, 1.52 and 1.87, respectively. At the end of follow-up, it decreased to 1.12 (Delta = -0.49; p < 0.0001), 1.31 (Delta = -0.21, p = 0.004) and 1.75 (Delta = -0.12; p = 0.1), respectively. Sixty four percent of patients had a clinically important improvement in HAQ (defined as > or = -0.22) with the first TNF antagonist and 46% with the second. CONCLUSION A clinically significant effect size was seen in less than half of RA patients cycling to a second TNF antagonist.

Increased expression of urokinase-type plasminogen activator mRNA determines adverse prognosis in ErbB2-positive primary breast cancer.

PURPOSE: To evaluate and validate mRNA expression markers capable of identifying patients with ErbB2-positive breast cancer associated with distant metastasis and reduced survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Expression of 60 genes involved in breast cancer biology was assessed by quantitative real-time PCR (qrt-PCR) in 317 primary breast cancer patients and correlated with clinical outcome data. Results were validated subsequently using two previously published and publicly available microarray data sets with different patient populations comprising 295 and 286 breast cancer samples, respectively. RESULTS: Of the 60 genes measured by qrt-PCR, urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA or PLAU) mRNA expression was the most significant marker associated with distant metastasis-free survival (MFS) by univariate Cox analysis in patients with ErbB2-positive tumors and an independent factor in multivariate analysis. Subsequent validation in two microarray data sets confirmed the prognostic value of uPA in ErbB2-positive tumors by both univariate and multivariate analysis. uPA mRNA expression was not significantly associated with MFS in ErbB2-negative tumors. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed in all three study populations that patients with ErbB2-positive/uPA-positive tumors exhibited significantly reduced MFS (hazard ratios [HR], 4.3; 95% CI, 1.6 to 11.8; HR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.2 to 6.2; and, HR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.1 to 7.1; all P < .02) as compared with the group with ErbB2-positive/uPA-negative tumors who exhibited similar outcome to those with ErbB2-negative tumors, irrespective of uPA status. CONCLUSION: After evaluation of 898 breast cancer patients, uPA mRNA expression emerged as a powerful prognostic indicator in ErbB2-positive tumors. These results were consistent among three independent study populations assayed by different techniques, including qrt-PCR and two microarray platforms.