Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Molecular variation at a candidate gene implicated in the regulation of fire ant social behavior

The fire ant Solenopsis invicta and its close relatives display an important social polymorphism involving differences in colony queen number. Colonies are headed by either a single reproductive queen (monogyne form) or multiple queens (polygyne form). This variation in social organization is associated with variation at the gene Gp-9, with monogyne colonies harboring only B-like allelic variants and polygyne colonies always containing b-like variants as well. We describe naturally occurring variation at Gp-9 in fire ants based on 185 full-length sequences, 136 of which were obtained from S. invicta collected over much of its native range. While there is little overall differentiation between most of the numerous alleles observed, a surprising amount is found in the coding regions of the gene, with such substitutions usually causing amino acid replacements. This elevated coding-region variation may result from a lack of negative selection acting to constrain amino acid replacements over much of the protein, different mutation rates or biases in coding and non-coding sequences, negative selection acting with greater strength on non-coding than coding regions, and/or positive selection acting on the protein. Formal selection analyses provide evidence that the latter force played an important role in the basal b-like lineages coincident with the emergence of polygyny. While our data set reveals considerable paraphyly and polyphyly of S. invicta sequences with respect to those of other fire ant species, the b-like alleles of the socially polymorphic species are monophyletic. An expanded analysis of colonies containing alleles of this clade confirmed the invariant link between their presence and expression of polygyny. Finally, our discovery of several unique alleles bearing various combinations of b-like and B-like codons allows us to conclude that no single b-like residue is completely predictive of polygyne behavior and, thus, potentially causally involved in its expression. Rather, all three typical b-like residues appear to be necessary.

Factor structure of early smoking experiences and associations with smoking behavior: valence or sensitivity model?

The Early Smoking Experience (ESE) questionnaire is the most widely used questionnaire to assess initial subjective experiences of cigarette smoking. However, its factor structure is not clearly defined and can be perceived from two main standpoints: valence, or positive and negative experiences, and sensitivity to nicotine. This article explores the ESE's factor structure and determines which standpoint was more relevant. It compares two groups of young Swiss men (German- and French-speaking). We examined baseline data on 3,368 tobacco users from a representative sample in the ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF). ESE, continued tobacco use, weekly smoking and nicotine dependence were assessed. Exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) and structural equation modeling (SEM) were performed. ESEM clearly distinguished positive experiences from negative experiences, but negative experiences were divided in experiences related to dizziness and experiences related to irritations. SEM underlined the reinforcing effects of positive experiences, but also of experiences related to dizziness on nicotine dependence and weekly smoking. The best ESE structure for predictive accuracy of experiences on smoking behavior was a compromise between the valence and sensitivity standpoints, which showed clinical relevance.

Parents living with HIV in a high-income country: do patients need specific support?

The number of HIV-infected persons with children and caregiving duties is likely to increase. From this statement, the present study was designed to establish how HIV infected caregivers organise their parenting routines and to determine their support needs. A further aim was to ascertain caregivers' perception of conspicuous behaviours displayed by their children. Finally, it sought to determine the extent to which the caregivers' assessment of their parenting activity is influenced by the required support and their children's perceived conspicuous behaviours. The study design was observational and cross-sectional. Sampling was based on the 7 HIV Outpatient Clinics associated with the national population-based Swiss HIV Cohort Study. It focused on persons living with HIV who are responsible for raising children below the age of 18. A total of 520 caregivers were approached and 261 participated. An anonymous, standardised, self-administered questionnaire was used for data collection. The data were analysed using descriptive statistical procedures and backward elimination multiple regression analysis. The 261 respondents cared for 406 children and adolescents under 18 years of age; the median age was 10 years. The caregivers' material resources were low. 70% had a net family income in a range below the median of Swiss net family income and 30% were dependent on welfare assistance. 73% were undergoing treatment with 86% reporting no physical impairments. The proportion of single caregivers was 34%. 92% of the children were living with their HIV infected caregivers. 80% of the children attended an institution such as a school or kindergarten during the day. 89% of the caregivers had access to social networks providing support. Nevertheless, caregivers required additional support in performing their parenting duties and indicated a need for assistance on the material level, in connection with legal problems and with participation in the labour market. 46% of the caregivers had observed one or more conspicuous behaviours displayed by their children, which indicates a challenging situation. However, most of these caregivers assessed their parenting activity very favourably. Backward elimination multiple regression analysis indicated that a smaller number of support needs, younger age of the eldest child and fewer physical impairments on the part of the caregiver enhance the caregivers' assessment of their parenting activity. Physicians should speak to caregivers living with HIV about their parenting responsibilities and provide the necessary scope for this subject in their consultation sessions. Physicians are in a position to draw their patients' attention to the services available to them.

Stress, social support, and health risk behaviours as mediators of the forgiveness-health relation /

The mediating roles of stress, social support, and health risk behaviours in the relationships between dispositional forgiveness and mental and physical health were examined. Participants were 748 undergraduate students (554 women, 194 men) entering their first year of studies at Brock University. Participants, ranging in age from 17 to 25 years, completed the Brock University First Year Health Study and were provided monetary compensation. Dispositional forgiveness, stress, social support, health risk behaviours, mental health, and physical health were measured using self-report methods. The data were analyzed separately for women and men because there were significant mean differences on many of the study'S variables. Analyses revealed that the mediated relationships between dispositional forgiveness and health were generally stronger for women than men. Stress was the most robust mediator of the forgiveness-health relation for both women and men. The only health risk behaviour that mediated the forgivenesshealth relation was physical fitness and this result was found for women only. Social support mediated several of the relationships between forgiveness and health but not others. Results were discussed with reference to the literature on forgiveness and health. Several directions for future research were offered, such as conducting longitudinal research designs to assess the direction of causality better, investigating moderator variables of the forgiveness-health relation, and building models, which incorporate multiple mediators using structural equation modelling techniques.

The effectiveness of a health versus appearance message on pregnant women's intentions to exercise postpartum : the moderating role of self-monitoring

Despite the confimied health benefits of exercise during the postpartum period, many new mothers are not sufficiently active. The present research aimed to examine the effectiveness of 2 types of messages on intention to exercise after giving birth on 2 groups of pregnant women (low and high self-monitors) using the Theory of Planned Behavior as a theoretical basis. Participants were 2 1 8 pregnant women 1 8 years of age and older (Mean age = 27.9 years, SD = 5.47), and in their second or third trimester. Women completed a demographics questionnaire, a self-monitoring (SM) scale and the Godin Leisure Time Exercise Questionnaire for current and pre-pregnancy exercise levels. They then read one of two brochures, describing either the health or appearance benefits of exercise for postpartum women. Women's attitudes, social norms, perceived behavioral control, and intentions to exercise postpartum were then assessed to determine whether one type of message (health or appearance) was more effective for each group. A MANOVA found no significant effect (p>0.05) for message type, SM, or their interaction. Possible reasons include the fact that the two messages may have been too similar, reading any message about exercise may result in intentions to exercise, or lack of attention given to the brochure. Given the lack of research in this area, more studies are necessary to confirm the present results. Two additional exploratory analyses were conducted. Pearson correlations found higher levels of pre-pregnancy exercise and current exercise to be associated with more positive attitudes, more positive subjective norms, higher perceived behavioral control, and higher intention to exercise postpartum. A hierarchical regression was conducted to determine the predictive utility of attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control on intention for each self-monitoring group. Results of the analysis demonstrated the three independent variables significantly predicted intention (p < .001) in both groups, accounting for 58-62% of the variance in intention. For low self-monitors, attitude was the strongest predictor of intention, followed by perceived behavioral control and subjective norm. For high self-monitors, perceived behavioral control was the strongest predictors, followed by attitudes and subjective norm. The present study has practical and real world implications by contributing to our understanding of what types of messages, in a brochure format, are most effective in changing pregnant women's attitudes, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and intention to exercise postpartum and provides ftirther support for the use of the Theory of Planned Behavior with this population.

A school-based cognitive behavior modification intervention strategy for learned helpless mentally retarded students

This study assessed the usefulness of a cognitive behavior modification (CBM) intervention package with mentally retarded students in overcoming learned helplessness and improving learning strategies. It also examined the feasibility of instructing teachers in the use of such a training program for a classroom setting. A modified single subject design across individuals was employed using two groups of three subjects. Three students from each of two segregated schools for the mentally retarded were selected using a teacher questionnaire and pupil checklist of the most learned helpless students enrolled there. Three additional learned helplessness assessments were conducted on each subject before and after the intervention in order to evaluate the usefulness of the program in alleviating learned helplessness. A classroom environment was created with the three students from each school engaged in three twenty minute work sessions a week with the experimenter and a tutor experimenter (TE) as instructors. Baseline measurements were established on seven targeted behaviors for each subject: task-relevant speech, task-irrelevant speech, speech denoting a positive evaluation of performance, speech denoting a negative evaluation of performance, proportion of time on task, non-verbal positive evaluation of performance and non-verbal negative evaluation of performance. The intervention package combined a variety of CBM techniques such as Meichenbaum's (1977) Stop, Look and Listen approach, role rehearsal and feedback. During the intervention each subject met with his TE twice a week for an individual half-hour session and one joint twenty minute session with all three students, the experimentor and one TE. Five weeks after the end of this experiment one follow up probe was conducted. All baseline, post-intervention and probe sessions were videotaped. The seven targeted behaviors were coded and comparisons of baseline, post intervention, and probe testing were presented in graph form. Results showed a reduction in learned helplessness in all subjects. Improvement was noted in each of the seven targeted behaviors for each of the six subjects. This study indicated that mentally retarded children can be taught to reduce learned helplessness with the aid of a CBM intervention package. It also showed that CBM is a viable approach in helping mentally retarded students acquire more effective learning strategies. Because the TEs (Tutor experimenters) had no trouble learning and implementing this program, it was considered feasible for teachers to use similar methods in the classroom.

Sexual behavior and factors affecting female reproduction in house and field crickets

The objective of this investigation was to clarify the adaptive significance of female sexual behaviours in the house cricket, Acheta domesticus, and the Texas field cricket, Gryllus integer. Experiments were focussed primarily on: nutritional factors affecting female reproductive success; the ontogeny of female sexual behaviours; female mating frequency and progeny production; and the pattern of sperm competition. Reproduction of singly mated female A. domesticus assigned to 3 nutritional regimes was compared . Females fed a vitamin and protein-enriched mouse chow, cannibalistic females, and starved females produced on the average, 513 , 200 and 68 offspring, respectively. Cannibals probably could not obtain the same amounts of essential nutrients as females fed mouse chow. Reabsorption of oocytes was likely the major factor contributing to the decreased reproduction of starved females. In addition, female !. domesticus fed mouse chow, but allowed constant access to males produced 11 times as many offspring than did females fed corn meal. Females fed corn meal probably could not absorb or synthesize enough dietary lipids, thus resulting in poor ovariole growth. Female !. domesticus first mate at an average adult age of 7 days, closely corresponding to when they first exhibit positive phonotaxis. Females mate repeatedly and often consume the externally attached spermatophore. In ~. domesticus, females allowed constant access to males produced significantly more offspring than did single maters. Similarly, doubly mated G. integer females produced more offspring than did single maters. This difference resulted largely from the failure of many single maters to reproduce. Remating by female crickets partly functions in offsetting the possibility of a failed initial mating. Nymph production increased significantly with the time the spermatophore was attached in singly mated ~. domesticus. Spermatophore consumption by the female was not affected by male guarding behaviour, and the interval between mating and eating of the spermatophore may often be shorter than the time required for maximum insemination. Some degree of sperm depletion in singly mated !. domesticus and G. integer may have occurred. The patterns of daily offspring production of singly and multiplymated females suggests that a factor provided by a male during mating stimulates female oviposition and/or egg production. Female crickets also might acquire nutrition from spermatophore consumption, a benefit that is augmented by female multiple mating. The electrophoretic examination of various allozymes in ~. integer did not permit determination of a pattern of sperm competition. However, the possibility of last male sperm predominance is related to male guarding behaviour.

Sources of perceived support from friends in exercise : an application of self-determination theory /

Background: This study examined three social factors (i.e., autonomy support, structure, and involvement) and their relationship with the motivational processes proposed by Vallerand ( 1 997). This study explored sources of support for exercise participation. -~ ' Methods: Participants (N = 425) completed self-reported instruments which assessed variables outlined within Vallerand's ( 1 997) HMIEM. Results: Structural equation modeling analyses predicting the cognitive/affective and exercise behaviour accounted for 23 percent of variance in positive affect, 10 percent of variance in negative affect, 38 percent of variance in physical self-concept, and 4 percent of variance in exercise behaviour. Exploratory analyses revealed that friends, romantic partners, and educators to be consistent sources for providing autonomy support, structure, and involvement, f !,< r - r* Summary: This study is among the first to examine perceived sources oi autonomy support, structure, and involvement from friends in the exercise context and suggest such perceptions may contribute to motivating exercise behaviour in post-secondary students.

Examining the influence of family support on diabetes education behavioural outcomes

The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of family support on diabetes education behavioural outcomes, specifically in relation to diet, exercise, and blood glucose monitoring in adult individuals with Type 2 diabetes. Fifty-three individuals attending diabetes education for the first time were followed approximately 1 month. The findings for the influence of family support were mixed. Family attending diabetes class with participants had a positive influence with respect to diet. This is consistent with Carl Rogers (1969) who espouses setting a positive climate for learning and that learning new attitudes or information comes when external barriers are at a minimum. However family attending class with participants had no influence with respect to exercise or blood glucose monitoring. The family support action of encouraging with respect to diet overall did not influence healthy eating behaviours except for decreased skipped meals and scheduled snacks. In fact, in the areas of family willing to make healthy choices along with participant, the less the family was involved in encouraging, the better the participant did. Exercise on the other hand was influenced positively by family encouragement. This is consistent with Bandura's theory that enhancement of self-confidence and self-efficacy can lead to desired behaviour changes. Family encouragement however did not appear to influence blood glucose monitoring behaviours. This study has implications for practice in that diabetes education programs can encourage family to attend classes or get involved in encouraging the person with diabetes, so that it may help to increase healthy eating behaviours and exercise. As time is necessary to implement changes in behaviour, future research can look at the influence of family support over a 6-month, I-year, or greater period.

A Quantitative and Qualitative Inquiry Into Positive Involvement Trends of Contemporary Fathers and Influence of Parenting Programs

Parent education programs offered by a variety of public health services are effective support and knowledge resources that enhance positive parenting competencies in early childhood and adolescence. However, parenting education programs are less effective and encompass fewer benefits for fathers in comparison to mothers. This study sought to investigate trends of paternal involvement in early childhood and to compare the influence of parenting education programs on paternal involvement and conceptualization of fathers. A sample of 52 fathers, between the ages of 19 to 54, with children 6 years old and younger completed an electronic or hard copy version of a survey questionnaire reporting on their fathering and experiences as a dad. Findings indicate the sample of Canadian fathers self-reported high levels of paternal involvement, including many who favoured play-based interactions with their children. Although no significant difference in levels of involvement was noted between fathers who had versus those who had not previously participated in a parenting education program, half of the Canadian fathers indicated that supports are needed to strengthen their role as fathers. Results suggest that future initiatives to strengthen parent education program services available in Canada should specifically consider the father’s role.

Managing Risk in a Culture of Rights: Providing Support and Treatment in Community-Based Settings for Persons with Intellectual Disabilities who Sexually Offend

People with intellectual disability who sexually offend commonly live in community-based settings since the closing of all institutions across the province of Ontario. Nine (n=9) front line staff who provide support to these individuals in three different settings (treatment setting, transitional setting, residential setting) were interviewed. Participants responded to 47 questions to explore how sex offenders with intellectual disability can be supported in the community to prevent re-offenses. Questions encompassed variables that included staff attitudes, various factors impacting support, structural components of the setting, quality of life and the good life, staff training, staff perspectives on treatment, and understanding of risk management. Three overlapping models that have been supported in the literature were used collectively for the basis of this research: The Good Lives Model (Ward & Gannon, 2006; Ward et al., 2007), the quality of life model (Felce & Perry, 1995), and variables associated with risk management. Results of this research showed how this population is being supported in the community with an emphasis on the following elements: positive and objective staff attitude, teamwork, clear rules and protocols, ongoing supervision, consistency, highly trained staff, and environments that promote quality of life. New concepts arose which suggested that all settings display an unequal balance of upholding human rights and managing risks when supporting this high-risk population. This highlights the need for comprehensive assessments in order to match the offender to the proper setting and supports, using an integration of a Risk, Need, Responsivity model and the Good Lives model for offender rehabilitation and to reduce the likelihood of re-offenses.

Players and Avatars: The Connections between Player Personality, Avatar Personality, and Behavior in Video Games

The increasing variety and complexity of video games allows players to choose how to behave and represent themselves within these virtual environments. The focus of this dissertation was to examine the connections between the personality traits (specifically, HEXACO traits and psychopathic traits) of video game players and player-created and controlled game-characters (i.e., avatars), and the link between traits and behavior in video games. In Study 1 (n = 198), the connections between player personality traits and behavior in a Massively Multiplayer Online Roleplaying Game (World of Warcraft) were examined. Six behavior components were found (i.e., Player-versus-Player, Social Player-versus-Environment, Working, Helping, Immersion, and Core Content), and each was related to relevant personality traits. For example, Player-versus-Player behaviors were negatively related to Honesty-Humility and positively related to psychopathic traits, and Immersion behaviors (i.e., exploring, role-playing) were positively related to Openness to Experience. In Study 2 (n = 219), the connections between player personality traits and in-game behavior in video games were examined in university students. Four behavior components were found (i.e., Aggressing, Winning, Creating, and Helping), and each was related to at least one personality trait. For example, Aggressing was negatively related to Honesty-Humility and positively related to psychopathic traits. In Study 3 (n = 90), the connections between player personality traits and avatar personality traits were examined in World of Warcraft. Positive player-avatar correlations were observed for all personality traits except Extraversion. Significant mean differences between players and avatars were observed for all traits except Conscientiousness; avatars had higher mean scores on Extraversion and psychopathic traits, but lower mean scores on the remaining traits. In Study 4, the connections between player personality traits, avatar traits, and observed behaviors in a life-simulation video game (The Sims 3) were examined in university students (n = 93). Participants created two avatars and used these avatars to play The Sims 3. Results showed that the selection of certain avatar traits was related to relevant player personality traits (e.g., participants who chose the Friendly avatar trait were higher in Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, and Agreeableness, and lower in psychopathic traits). Selection of certain character-interaction behaviors was related to relevant player personality traits (e.g., participants with higher levels of psychopathic traits used more Mean and fewer Friendly interactions). Together, the results of the four studies suggest that individuals generally behave and represent themselves in video games in ways that are consistent with their real-world tendencies.

Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation? a Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence

This paper tests the predictions of the Barro-Gordon model using US data on inflation and unemployment. To that end, it constructs a general game-theoretical model with asymmetric preferences that nests the Barro-Gordon model and a version of Cukierman’s model as special cases. Likelihood Ratio tests indicate that the restriction imposed by the Barro-Gordon model is rejected by the data but the one imposed by the version of Cukierman’s model is not. Reduced-form estimates are consistent with the view that the Federal Reserve weights more heavily positive than negative unemployment deviations from the expected natural rate.