Cluster analysis and artificial neural network on the superovulatory response prediction in mice

Complex biological systems require sophisticated approach for analysis, once there are variables with distinct measure levels to be analyzed at the same time in them. The mouse assisted reproduction, e.g. superovulation and viable embryos production, demand a multidisciplinary control of the environment, endocrinologic and physiologic status of the animals, of the stressing factors and the conditions which are favorable to their copulation and subsequently oocyte fertilization. In the past, analyses with a simplified approach of these variables were not well succeeded to predict the situations that viable embryos were obtained in mice. Thereby, we suggest a more complex approach with association of the Cluster Analysis and the Artificial Neural Network to predict embryo production in superovulated mice. A robust prediction could avoid the useless death of animals and would allow an ethic management of them in experiments requiring mouse embryo.

Identification of steel bars immersed in reinforced concrete based on experimental results of eddy current testing and artificial neural network analysis

This paper presents an experimental research on the use of eddy current testing (ECT) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) in order to identify the gauge and position of steel bars immersed in concrete structures. The paper presents details of the ECT probe and concrete specimens constructed for the tests, and a study about the influence of the concrete on the values of measured voltages. After this, new measurements were done with a greater number of specimens, simulating a field condition and the results were used to generate training and validation vectors for multilayer perceptron ANNs. The results show a high percentage of correct identification with respect to both, the gauge of the bar and of the thickness of the concrete cover. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Multivariate models for correlated count data

In this study, we deal with the problem of overdispersion beyond extra zeros for a collection of counts that can be correlated. Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial distributions have been considered. First, we propose a multivariate count model in which all counts follow the same distribution and are correlated. Then we extend this model in a sense that correlated counts may follow different distributions. To accommodate correlation among counts, we have considered correlated random effects for each individual in the mean structure, thus inducing dependency among common observations to an individual. The method is applied to real data to investigate variation in food resources use in a species of marsupial in a locality of the Brazilian Cerrado biome. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Análise da estabilidade transitória via rede neural Art-Artmap fuzzy Euclidiana modificada com treinamento continuado

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Predicting biological parameters of estuarine benthic communities using models based on environmental data

Este trabalho objetivou predizer parâmetros da estrutura de associações macrobentônicas (composição específica, abundância, riqueza, diversidade e equitatividade) em estuários do Sul do Brasil, utilizando modelos baseados em dados ambientais (características dos sedimentos, salinidade, temperaturas do ar e da água, e profundidade). As amostragens foram realizadas sazonalmente em cinco estuários entre o inverno de 1996 e o verão de 1998. Em cada estuário as amostras foram coletadas em áreas não poluídas, com características semelhantes quanto a presença ou ausência de vegetação, profundidade e distância da desenbocadura. Para a obtenção dos modelos de predição, foram utilizados dois métodos: o primeiro baseado em Análise Discriminante Múltipla (ADM) e o segundo em Regressão Linear Múltipla (RLM). Os modelos baseados em ADM apresentaram resultados melhores do que os baseados em regressão linear. Os melhores resultados usando RLM foram obtidos para diversidade e riqueza. É possível então, concluir que modelos como aqui derivados podem representar ferramentas muito úteis em estudos de monitoramento ambiental em estuários.

Ground-level ozone prediction using a neural network model based on meteorological variables and applied to the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo

A neural network model to predict ozone concentration in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area was developed, based on average values of meteorological variables in the morning (8:00-12:00 hr) and afternoon (13:00-17: 00 hr) periods. Outputs are the maximum and average ozone concentrations in the afternoon (12:00-17:00 hr). The correlation coefficient between computed and measured values was 0.82 and 0.88 for the maximum and average ozone concentration, respectively. The model presented good performance as a prediction tool for the maximum ozone concentration. For prediction periods from 1 to 5 days 0 to 23% failures (95% confidence) were obtained.

Tactile perception - Perception of tactile distance changes with body site: a neural network modelling study.

La distorsione della percezione della distanza tra due stimoli puntuali applicati sulla superfice della pelle di diverse regioni corporee è conosciuta come Illusione di Weber. Questa illusione è stata osservata, e verificata, in molti esperimenti in cui ai soggetti era chiesto di giudicare la distanza tra due stimoli applicati sulla superficie della pelle di differenti parti corporee. Da tali esperimenti si è dedotto che una stessa distanza tra gli stimoli è giudicata differentemente per diverse regioni corporee. Il concetto secondo cui la distanza sulla pelle è spesso percepita in maniera alterata è ampiamente condiviso, ma i meccanismi neurali che manovrano questa illusione sono, allo stesso tempo, ancora ampiamente sconosciuti. In particolare, non è ancora chiaro come sia interpretata la distanza tra due stimoli puntuali simultanei, e quali aree celebrali siano coinvolte in questa elaborazione. L’illusione di Weber può essere spiegata, in parte, considerando la differenza in termini di densità meccano-recettoriale delle differenti regioni corporee, e l’immagine distorta del nostro corpo che risiede nella Corteccia Primaria Somato-Sensoriale (homunculus). Tuttavia, questi meccanismi sembrano non sufficienti a spiegare il fenomeno osservato: infatti, secondo i risultati derivanti da 100 anni di sperimentazioni, le distorsioni effettive nel giudizio delle distanze sono molto più piccole rispetto alle distorsioni che la Corteccia Primaria suggerisce. In altre parole, l’illusione osservata negli esperimenti tattili è molto più piccola rispetto all’effetto prodotto dalla differente densità recettoriale che affligge le diverse parti del corpo, o dall’estensione corticale. Ciò, ha portato a ipotizzare che la percezione della distanza tattile richieda la presenza di un’ulteriore area celebrale, e di ulteriori meccanismi che operino allo scopo di ridimensionare – almeno parzialmente – le informazioni derivanti dalla corteccia primaria, in modo da mantenere una certa costanza nella percezione della distanza tattile lungo la superfice corporea. E’ stata così proposta la presenza di una sorta di “processo di ridimensionamento”, chiamato “Rescaling Process” che opera per ridurre questa illusione verso una percezione più verosimile. Il verificarsi di questo processo è sostenuto da molti ricercatori in ambito neuro scientifico; in particolare, dal Dr. Matthew Longo, neuro scienziato del Department of Psychological Sciences (Birkbeck University of London), le cui ricerche sulla percezione della distanza tattile e sulla rappresentazione corporea sembrano confermare questa ipotesi. Tuttavia, i meccanismi neurali, e i circuiti che stanno alla base di questo potenziale “Rescaling Process” sono ancora ampiamente sconosciuti. Lo scopo di questa tesi è stato quello di chiarire la possibile organizzazione della rete, e i meccanismi neurali che scatenano l’illusione di Weber e il “Rescaling Process”, usando un modello di rete neurale. La maggior parte del lavoro è stata svolta nel Dipartimento di Scienze Psicologiche della Birkbeck University of London, sotto la supervisione del Dott. M. Longo, il quale ha contribuito principalmente all’interpretazione dei risultati del modello, dando suggerimenti sull’elaborazione dei risultati in modo da ottenere un’informazione più chiara; inoltre egli ha fornito utili direttive per la validazione dei risultati durante l’implementazione di test statistici. Per replicare l’illusione di Weber ed il “Rescaling Proess”, la rete neurale è stata organizzata con due strati principali di neuroni corrispondenti a due differenti aree funzionali corticali: • Primo strato di neuroni (il quale dà il via ad una prima elaborazione degli stimoli esterni): questo strato può essere pensato come parte della Corteccia Primaria Somato-Sensoriale affetta da Magnificazione Corticale (homunculus). • Secondo strato di neuroni (successiva elaborazione delle informazioni provenienti dal primo strato): questo strato può rappresentare un’Area Corticale più elevata coinvolta nell’implementazione del “Rescaling Process”. Le reti neurali sono state costruite includendo connessioni sinaptiche all’interno di ogni strato (Sinapsi Laterali), e connessioni sinaptiche tra i due strati neurali (Sinapsi Feed-Forward), assumendo inoltre che l’attività di ogni neurone dipenda dal suo input attraverso una relazione sigmoidale statica, cosi come da una dinamica del primo ordine. In particolare, usando la struttura appena descritta, sono state implementate due differenti reti neurali, per due differenti regioni corporee (per esempio, Mano e Braccio), caratterizzate da differente risoluzione tattile e differente Magnificazione Corticale, in modo da replicare l’Illusione di Weber ed il “Rescaling Process”. Questi modelli possono aiutare a comprendere il meccanismo dell’illusione di Weber e dare così una possibile spiegazione al “Rescaling Process”. Inoltre, le reti neurali implementate forniscono un valido contributo per la comprensione della strategia adottata dal cervello nell’interpretazione della distanza sulla superficie della pelle. Oltre allo scopo di comprensione, tali modelli potrebbero essere impiegati altresì per formulare predizioni che potranno poi essere verificate in seguito, in vivo, su soggetti reali attraverso esperimenti di percezione tattile. E’ importante sottolineare che i modelli implementati sono da considerarsi prettamente come modelli funzionali e non intendono replicare dettagli fisiologici ed anatomici. I principali risultati ottenuti tramite questi modelli sono la riproduzione del fenomeno della “Weber’s Illusion” per due differenti regioni corporee, Mano e Braccio, come riportato nei tanti articoli riguardanti le illusioni tattili (per esempio “The perception of distance and location for dual tactile pressures” di Barry G. Green). L’illusione di Weber è stata registrata attraverso l’output delle reti neurali, e poi rappresentata graficamente, cercando di spiegare le ragioni di tali risultati.

Econometric models of financial risks

The goal of this dissertation is to use statistical tools to analyze specific financial risks that have played dominant roles in the US financial crisis of 2008-2009. The first risk relates to the level of aggregate stress in the financial markets. I estimate the impact of financial stress on economic activity and monetary policy using structural VAR analysis. The second set of risks concerns the US housing market. There are in fact two prominent risks associated with a US mortgage, as borrowers can both prepay or default on a mortgage. I test the existence of unobservable heterogeneity in the borrower's decision to default or prepay on his mortgage by estimating a multinomial logit model with borrower-specific random coefficients.

Numerical coupling of thermal-electric network models and energy-transport equations including optoelectronic semiconductor devices

In this work the numerical coupling of thermal and electric network models with model equations for optoelectronic semiconductor devices is presented. Modified nodal analysis (MNA) is applied to model electric networks. Thermal effects are modeled by an accompanying thermal network. Semiconductor devices are modeled by the energy-transport model, that allows for thermal effects. The energy-transport model is expandend to a model for optoelectronic semiconductor devices. The temperature of the crystal lattice of the semiconductor devices is modeled by the heat flow eqaution. The corresponding heat source term is derived under thermodynamical and phenomenological considerations of energy fluxes. The energy-transport model is coupled directly into the network equations and the heat flow equation for the lattice temperature is coupled directly into the accompanying thermal network. The coupled thermal-electric network-device model results in a system of partial differential-algebraic equations (PDAE). Numerical examples are presented for the coupling of network- and one-dimensional semiconductor equations. Hybridized mixed finite elements are applied for the space discretization of the semiconductor equations. Backward difference formluas are applied for time discretization. Thus, positivity of charge carrier densities and continuity of the current density is guaranteed even for the coupled model.

Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

Development, degeneration and neural network of the bodily self

The question addressed by this dissertation is how the human brain builds a coherent representation of the body, and how this representation is used to recognize its own body. Recent approaches by neuroimaging and TMS revealed hints for a distinct brain representation of human body, as compared with other stimulus categories. Neuropsychological studies demonstrated that body-parts and self body-parts recognition are separate processes sub-served by two different, even if possibly overlapping, networks within the brain. Bodily self-recognition is one aspect of our ability to distinguish between self and others and the self/other distinction is a crucial aspect of social behaviour. This is the reason why I have conducted a series of experiment on subjects with everyday difficulties in social and emotional behaviour, such as patients with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD). More specifically, I studied the implicit self body/face recognition (Chapter 6) and the influence of emotional body postures on bodily self-processing in TD children as well as in ASD children (Chapter 7). I found that the bodily self-recognition is present in TD and in ASD children and that emotional body postures modulate self and others’ body processing. Subsequently, I compared implicit and explicit bodily self-recognition in a neuro-degenerative pathology, such as in PD patients, and I found a selective deficit in implicit but not in explicit self-recognition (Chapter 8). This finding suggests that implicit and explicit bodily self-recognition are separate processes subtended by different mechanisms that can be selectively impaired. If the bodily self is crucial for self/other distinction, the space around the body (personal space) represents the space of interaction and communication with others. When, I studied this space in autism, I found that personal space regulation is impaired in ASD children (Chapter 9).

Neural network activity in the neonatal rat barrel cortex in vivo

Coordinated patterns of electrical activity are important for the early development of sensory systems. The spatiotemporal dynamics of these early activity patterns and the role of the peripheral sensory input for their generation are essentially unknown. There are two projects in this thesis. In project1, we performed extracellular multielectrode recordings in the somatosensory cortex of postnatal day 0 to 7 rats in vivo and observed three distinct patterns of synchronized oscillatory activity. (1) Spontaneous and periphery-driven spindle bursts of 1–2 s in duration and ~10 Hz in frequency occurred approximately every 10 s. (2) Spontaneous and sensory-driven gamma oscillations of 150–300 ms duration and 30–40 Hz in frequency occurred every 10–30 s. (3) Long oscillations appeared only every ~20 min and revealed the largest amplitude (250–750 µV) and longest duration (>40 s). These three distinct patterns of early oscillatory activity differently synchronized the neonatal cortical network. Whereas spindle bursts and gamma oscillations did not propagate and synchronized a local neuronal network of 200–400 µm in diameter, long oscillations propagated with 25–30 µm/s and synchronized 600-800 µm large ensembles. All three activity patterns were triggered by sensory activation. Single electrical stimulation of the whisker pad or tactile whisker activation elicited neocortical spindle bursts and gamma activity. Long oscillations could be only evoked by repetitive sensory stimulation. The neonatal oscillatory patterns in vivo depended on NMDAreceptor-mediated synaptic transmission and gap junctional coupling. Whereas spindle bursts and gamma oscillations may represent an early functional columnar-like pattern, long oscillations may serve as a propagating activation signal consolidating these immature neuronal networks. In project2, Using voltage-sensitive dye imaging and simultaneous multi-channel extracellular recordings in the barrel cortex and somatosensory thalamus of newborn rats in vivo, we found that spontaneous and whisker stimulation induced activity patterns were restricted to functional cortical columns already at the day of birth. Spontaneous and stimulus evoked cortical activity consisted of gamma oscillations followed by spindle bursts. Spontaneous events were mainly generated in the thalamus or by spontaneous whisker movements. Our findings indicate that during early developmental stages cortical networks self-organize in ontogenetic columns via spontaneous gamma oscillations triggered by the thalamus or sensory periphery.

Long-term potentiation and neural network activity in the neonatal rat cerebral cortex in vivo

Long-term potentiation in the neonatal rat rnbarrel cortex in vivo rnLong-term potentiation (LTP) is important for the activity-dependent formation of early cortical circuits. In the neonatal rodent barrel cortex LTP has been so far only studied in vitro. I combined voltage-sensitive dye imaging with extracellular multi-electrode recordings to study whisker stimulation-induced LTP for both the slope of field potential and the number of multi-unit activity in the whisker-to-barrel cortex pathway of the neonatal rat barrel cortex in vivo. Single whisker stimulation at 2 Hz for 10 min induced an age-dependent expression of LTP in postnatal day (P) 0 to P14 rats with the strongest expression of LTP at P3-P5. The magnitude of LTP was largest in the stimulated barrel-related column, smaller in the surrounding septal region and no LTP could be observed in the neighboring barrel. Current source density analyses revealed an LTP-associated increase of synaptic current sinks in layer IV / lower layer II/III at P3-P5 and in the cortical plate / upper layer V at P0-P1. This study demonstrates for the first time an age-dependent and spatially confined LTP in the barrel cortex of the newborn rat in vivo. These activity-dependent modifications during the critical period may play an important role in the development and refinement of the topographic map in the barrel cortex. (An et al., 2012)rnEarly motor activity triggered by gamma and spindle bursts in neonatal rat motor cortexrnSelf-generated neuronal activity generated in subcortical regions drives early spontaneous motor activity, which is a hallmark of the developing sensorimotor system. However, the neuronal activity patterns and functions of neonatal primary motor cortex (M1) in the early movements are still unknown. I combined voltage-sensitive dye imaging with simultaneous extracellular multi-electrode recordings in the neonatal rat S1 and M1 in vivo. At P3-P5, gamma and spindle bursts observed in M1 could trigger early paw movements. Furthermore, the paw movements could be also elicited by the focal electrical stimulation of M1 at layer V. Local inactivation of M1 could significantly attenuate paw movements, suggesting that the neonatal M1 operates in motor mode. In contrast, the neonatal M1 can also operate in sensory mode. Early spontaneous movements and sensory stimulations of paw trigger gamma and spindle bursts in M1. Blockade of peripheral sensory input from the paw completely abolished sensory evoked gamma and spindle bursts. Moreover, both sensory evoked and spontaneously occurring gamma and spindle bursts mediated interactions between S1 and M1. Accordingly, local inactivation of the S1 profoundly reduced paw stimulation-induced and spontaneously occurring gamma and spindle bursts in M1, indicating that S1 plays a critical role in generation of the activity patterns in M1. This study proposes that both self-generated and sensory evoked gamma and spindle bursts in M1 may contribute to the refinement and maturation of corticospinal and sensorimotor networks required for sensorimotor coordination.rn