Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian Weighted Least Squares approach

Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality data sets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares Regression and Bayesian Weighted Least Squares Regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited data sets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in the prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling.

SnowSports interactive a global start-up's challenges

A case study based on the experiences of (at the time of writing) Brisbane-based start-up SnowSports Interactive and their plans for global expansion. This case study questions whether SnowSports interactive is ready for global expansion, and if so which country should be its primary target? Once a country has been chosen, how should SnowSports approach and enter the market? This case study prompts business (in particular international business students) to consider a company's readiness in entering a global market, utlising evaluating tools in a wide range of discipline - product, human resources, capital, busines strategy. Furthermore students are asked to match SnowSports' unique characteristics with a country and an entry strategy. Ability to answer questions posed in this case study will demonstrate high level understanding in entrepreneurship and innovation, international business strategy, and cultural awareness; and demonstrate ability in theoretical and framework application

Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular mortality and the role of childhood socioeconomic conditions and adulthood risk factors : a prospective cohort study with 17-years of follow up

Background The mechanisms underlying socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are largely unknown. We studied the contribution of childhood socioeconomic conditions and adulthood risk factors to inequalities in CVD mortality in adulthood. Methods The prospective GLOBE study was carried out in the Netherlands, with baseline data from 1991, and linked with the cause of death register in 2007. At baseline, participants reported on adulthood socioeconomic position (SEP) (own educational level), childhood socioeconomic conditions (occupational level of respondent’s father), and a broad range of adulthood risk factors (health behaviours, material circumstances, psychosocial factors). This present study is based on 5,395 men and 6,306 women, and the data were analysed using Cox regression models and hazard ratios (HR). Results A low adulthood SEP was associated with increased CVD mortality for men (HR 1.84; 95% CI: 1.41-2.39) and women (HR 1.80; 95%CI: 1.04-3.10). Those with poorer childhood socioeconomic conditions were more likely to die from CVD in adulthood, but this reached statistical significance only among men with the poorest childhood socioeconomic circumstances. About half of the investigated adulthood risk factors showed significant associations with CVD mortality among both men and women, namely renting a house, experiencing financial problems, smoking, physical activity and marital status. Alcohol consumption and BMI showed a U-shaped relationship with CVD mortality among women, with the risk being significantly greater for both abstainers and heavy drinkers, and among women who were underweight or obese. Among men, being single or divorced and using sleep/anxiety drugs increased the risk of CVD mortality. In explanatory models, the largest contributor to adulthood CVD inequalities were material conditions for men (42%; 95% CI: −73 to −20) and behavioural factors for women (55%; 95% CI: -191 to −28). Simultaneous adjustment for adulthood risk factors and childhood socioeconomic conditions attenuated the HR for the lowest adulthood SEP to 1.34 (95% CI: 0.99-1.82) for men and 1.19 (95% CI: 0.65-2.15) for women. Conclusions Adulthood material, behavioural and psychosocial factors played a major role in the explanation of adulthood SEP inequalities in CVD mortality. Childhood socioeconomic circumstances made a modest contribution, mainly via their association with adulthood risk factors. Policies and interventions to reduce health inequalities are likely to be most effective when considering the influence of socioeconomic circumstances across the entire life course and in particular, poor material conditions and unhealthy behaviours in adulthood.

Regulation of emissions under the carbon pricing mechanism : a case study of Australia’s coal fired electricity sector

On 1 July 2012, the carbon pricing mechanism commenced in Australia with the aim of reducing emissions and encouraging investment in clean energy. A substantial proportion of Australia’s emissions are attributable to the coal-fired electricity generation sector. This article examines whether the carbon pricing mechanism will effectively facilitate emissions reduction from the coal-fired electricity sector. Aspects analysed include the legislative constraints placed on the carbon price, the carbon pollution cap and provisions specific to the coal-fired electricity sector, such as transitional assistance. It is concluded that, in practice, the carbon pricing mechanism may not be sufficient in itself to achieve significant reduction in emissions from coal-fired electricity generation or significant investment in clean energy, and that a suite of additional regulatory measures, such as the federal Renewable Energy Target, should operate in conjunction with the mechanism.

Timed Up and Go Tests in cardiac rehabilitation : reliability and comparison with the 6-minute walk test

PURPOSE: To test the reliability of Timed Up and Go Tests (TUGTs) in cardiac rehabilitation (CR) and compare TUGTs to the 6-Minute Walk Test (6MWT) for outcome measurement. METHODS: Sixty-one of 154 consecutive community-based CR patients were prospectively recruited. Subjects undertook repeated TUGTs and 6MWTs at the start of CR (start-CR), postdischarge from CR (post-CR), and 6 months postdischarge from CR (6 months post-CR). The main outcome measurements were TUGT time (TUGTT) and 6MWT distance (6MWD). RESULTS: Mean (SD) TUGTT1 and TUGTT2 at the 3 assessments were 6.29 (1.30) and 5.94 (1.20); 5.81 (1.22) and 5.53 (1.09); and 5.39 (1.60) and 5.01 (1.28) seconds, respectively. A reduction in TUGTT occurred between each outcome point (P ≤ .002). Repeated TUGTTs were strongly correlated at each assessment, intraclass correlation (95% CI) = 0.85 (0.76–0.91), 0.84 (0.73–0.91), and 0.90 (0.83–0.94), despite a reduction between TUGTT1 and TUGTT2 of 5%, 5%, and 7%, respectively (P ≤ .006). Relative decreases in TUGTT1 (TUGTT2) occurred from start-CR to post-CR and from start-CR to 6 months post-CR of −7.5% (−6.9%) and −14.2% (−15.5%), respectively, while relative increases in 6MWD1 (6MWD2) occurred, 5.1% (7.2%) and 8.4% (10.2%), respectively (P < .001 in all cases). Pearson correlation coefficients for 6MWD1 to TUGTT1 and TUGTT2 across all times were −0.60 and −0.68 (P < .001) and the intraclass correlations (95% CI) for the speeds derived from averaged 6MWDs and TUGTTs were 0.65 (0.54, 0.73) (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Similar relative changes occurred for the TUGT and the 6MWT in CR. A significant correlation between the TUGTT and 6MWD was demonstrated, and we suggest that the TUGT may provide a related or a supplementary measurement of functional capacity in CR.

Paleomagnetic data support Early Permian age for the Abor Volcanics in the lower Siang Valley, NE India; significance for Gondwana-related break-up models

Confusion exists as to the age of the Abor Volcanics of NE India. Some consider the unit to have been emplaced in the Early Permian, others the Early Eocene, a difference of ∼230 million years. The divergence in opinion is significant because fundamentally different models explaining the geotectonic evolution of India depend on the age designation of the unit. Paleomagnetic data reported here from several exposures in the type locality of the formation in the lower Siang Valley indicate that steep dipping primary magnetizations (mean = 72.7 ± 6.2°, equating to a paleo-latitude of 58.1°) are recorded in the formation. These are only consistent with the unit being of Permian age, possibly Artinskian based on a magnetostratigraphic argument. Plate tectonic models for this time consistently show the NE corner of the sub-continent >50°S; in the Early Eocene it was just north of the equator, which would have resulted in the unit recording shallow directions. The mean declination is counter-clockwise rotated by ∼94°, around half of which can be related to the motion of the Indian block; the remainder is likely due local Himalayan-age thrusting in the Eastern Syntaxis. Several workers have correlated the Abor Volcanics with broadly coeval mafic volcanic suites in Oman, NE Pakistan–NW India and southern Tibet–Nepal, which developed in response to the Cimmerian block peeling-off eastern Gondwana in the Early-Middle Permian, but we believe there are problems with this model. Instead, we suggest that the Abor basalts relate to India–Antarctica/India–Australia extension that was happening at about the same time. Such an explanation best accommodates the relevant stratigraphical and structural data (present-day position within the Himalayan thrust stack), as well as the plate tectonic model for Permian eastern Gondwana.

How do supercontinents break up? — assessing the continental large igneous province (LIP) record of the break-up of Pangea

LIP emplacement is linked to the timing and evolution of supercontinental break-up. LIP-related break-up produces volcanic rifted margins, new and large (up to 108 km2) ocean basins, and new, smaller continents that undergo dispersal and potentially reassembly (e.g., India). However, not all continental LIPs lead to continental rupture. We analysed the <330 Ma continental LIP record(following final assembly of Pangea) to find relationships between LIP event attributes (e.g., igneous volume, extent, distance from pre-existing continental margin) and ocean basin attributes (e.g., length of new ocean basin/rifted margin) and how these varied during the progressive break up of Pangea. No correlation exists between LIP magnitude and size of the subsequent ocean basin or rifted margin. Our review suggests a three-phased break-up history of Pangea: 1) “Preconditioning” phase (∼330–200 Ma): LIP events (n=7) occurred largely around the supercontinental margin clustering today in Asia, with a low (<20%) rifting success rate. The Panjal Traps at ∼280 Ma may represent the first continental rupturing event of Pangea, resulting in continental ribboning along the Tethyan margin; 2) “Main Break-up” phase (∼200–100 Ma): numerous large LIP events(n=10) in the supercontinent interior, resulting in highly successful fragmentation (90%) and large, new ocean basins(e.g., Central/South Atlantic, Indian, >3000 km long); 3) “Waning” phase (∼100–0 Ma): Declining LIP magnitudes (n=6), greater proximity to continental margins (e.g., Madagascar, North Atlantic, Afro-Arabia, Sierra Madre) producing smaller ocean basins (<2600 km long). How Pangea broke up may thus have implications for earlier supercontinent reconstructions and LIP record.

Effects of a defender on run-up velocity and ball speed when crossing a football

This study evaluated effects of defensive pressure on running velocity in footballers during the approach to kick a stationary football. Approach velocity and ball speed/accuracy data were recorded from eight football youth academy participants (15.25, SD=0.46 yrs). Participants were required to run to a football to cross it to a receiver to score against a goal-keeper. Defensive pressure was manipulated across three counterbalanced conditions: defender-absent (DA); defender-far (DF) and defender-near (DN). Pass accuracy (percentages of a total of 32 trials with 95% confidence limits in parenthesis) did not significantly reduce under changing defensive pressure: DA, 78% (55–100%); DF, 78% (61–96%); DN, 59% (40–79%). Ball speed (m·s−1) significantly reduced as defensive pressure was included and increased: DA, 23.10 (22.38–23.83); DF, 20.40 (19.69–21.11); DN, 19.22 (18.51–19.93). When defensive pressure was introduced, average running velocity of attackers did not change significantly: DA versus DF (m·s−1), 5.40 (5.30–5.51) versus 5.41 (5.34–5.48). Scaling defender starting positions closer to the start position of the attacker (DN) significantly increased average running velocity relative to the DA and DF conditions, 5.60 (5.50–5.71). In the final approach footfalls, all conditions significantly differed: DA, 5.69 (5.35–6.03); DF, 6 .22 (5.93–6.50); DN, 6.52 (6.23–6.80). Data suggested that approach velocity is constrained by both presence and initial distance of the defender during task performance. Implications are that the expression of kicking behaviour is specific to a performance context and some movement regulation features will not emerge unless a defender is present as a task constraint in practice.

Submission to House Standing Committee on Infrastructure and Communications inquiry into IT Pricing

The strategies of price discrimination engaged in by a number of international publishers, coupled with a lack of competition and restrictions on the ability of consumers to engage in arbitrage, is likely to undermine the legitimacy of copyright law in Australia. By increasing prices beyond a reasonable and fair level, these strategies also undermine the goal of copyright law to enhance access to cultural goods. Enhancing access – and therefore lowering prices – is crucial to enhancing Australia's innovative capacity and the ability of Australians to experience, learn, act, and grow through cultural works. We recommend that the committee investigates the following options: 1. Repeal parallel importation restrictions; 2. Fundamentally reconsider the operation of anti-circumvention law in the context of digital distribution models; 3. Prohibit and render unenforceable contractual restrictions on parallel importation; 4. Introduce a right of digital resale in Australia.

Pricing approaches in the construction industry

Contractors have to bid competitively for most of their work and at the same time deal with the risks and uncertainties connected with bid submission. This article examines the factors involved in tender pricing and how they interrelate. From this, a conceptual model of contractors’ pricing strategy is developed.

Individual, environmental, and meteorological predictors of daily personal ultraviolet radiation exposure measurements in a United States cohort study

Background Individual exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is challenging to measure, particularly for diseases with substantial latency periods between first exposure and diagnosis of outcome, such as cancer. To guide the choice of surrogates for long-term UVR exposure in epidemiologic studies, we assessed how well stable sun-related individual characteristics and environmental/meteorological factors predicted daily personal UVR exposure measurements. Methods We evaluated 123 United States Radiologic Technologists subjects who wore personal UVR dosimeters for 8 hours daily for up to 7 days (N = 837 days). Potential predictors of personal UVR derived from a self-administered questionnaire, and public databases that provided daily estimates of ambient UVR and weather conditions. Factors potentially related to personal UVR exposure were tested individually and in a model including all significant variables. Results The strongest predictors of daily personal UVR exposure in the full model were ambient UVR, latitude, daily rainfall, and skin reaction to prolonged sunlight (R2 = 0.30). In a model containing only environmental and meteorological variables, ambient UVR, latitude, and daily rainfall were the strongest predictors of daily personal UVR exposure (R2 = 0.25). Conclusions In the absence of feasible measures of individual longitudinal sun exposure history, stable personal characteristics, ambient UVR, and weather parameters may help estimate long-term personal UVR exposure.

Faster Monte Carlo simulation of radiotherapy geometries

Using Monte Carlo simulation for radiotherapy dose calculation can provide more accurate results when compared to the analytical methods usually found in modern treatment planning systems, especially in regions with a high degree of inhomogeneity. These more accurate results acquired using Monte Carlo simulation however, often require orders of magnitude more calculation time so as to attain high precision, thereby reducing its utility within the clinical environment. This work aims to improve the utility of Monte Carlo simulation within the clinical environment by developing techniques which enable faster Monte Carlo simulation of radiotherapy geometries. This is achieved principally through the use new high performance computing environments and simpler alternative, yet equivalent representations of complex geometries. Firstly the use of cloud computing technology and it application to radiotherapy dose calculation is demonstrated. As with other super-computer like environments, the time to complete a simulation decreases as 1=n with increasing n cloud based computers performing the calculation in parallel. Unlike traditional super computer infrastructure however, there is no initial outlay of cost, only modest ongoing usage fees; the simulations described in the following are performed using this cloud computing technology. The definition of geometry within the chosen Monte Carlo simulation environment - Geometry & Tracking 4 (GEANT4) in this case - is also addressed in this work. At the simulation implementation level, a new computer aided design interface is presented for use with GEANT4 enabling direct coupling between manufactured parts and their equivalent in the simulation environment, which is of particular importance when defining linear accelerator treatment head geometry. Further, a new technique for navigating tessellated or meshed geometries is described, allowing for up to 3 orders of magnitude performance improvement with the use of tetrahedral meshes in place of complex triangular surface meshes. The technique has application in the definition of both mechanical parts in a geometry as well as patient geometry. Static patient CT datasets like those found in typical radiotherapy treatment plans are often very large and present a significant performance penalty on a Monte Carlo simulation. By extracting the regions of interest in a radiotherapy treatment plan, and representing them in a mesh based form similar to those used in computer aided design, the above mentioned optimisation techniques can be used so as to reduce the time required to navigation the patient geometry in the simulation environment. Results presented in this work show that these equivalent yet much simplified patient geometry representations enable significant performance improvements over simulations that consider raw CT datasets alone. Furthermore, this mesh based representation allows for direct manipulation of the geometry enabling motion augmentation for time dependant dose calculation for example. Finally, an experimental dosimetry technique is described which allows the validation of time dependant Monte Carlo simulation, like the ones made possible by the afore mentioned patient geometry definition. A bespoke organic plastic scintillator dose rate meter is embedded in a gel dosimeter thereby enabling simultaneous 3D dose distribution and dose rate measurement. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of applying alternative and equivalent geometry definitions to complex geometries for the purposes of Monte Carlo simulation performance improvement. Additionally, these alternative geometry definitions allow for manipulations to be performed on otherwise static and rigid geometry.

Personal processes interface mock up

Situated on Youtube, and shown in various locations. In this video we show a 3D mock up of a personal house purchasing process. A path traversal metaphor is used to give a sense of progression along the process stages. The intention is to be able to use console devices like an Xbox to consume business processes. This is so businesses can expose their internal processes to consumers using sophisticated user interfaces. The demonstrator was developed using Microsoft XNA, with assistance from the Suncorp Bank and the Smart Services CRC. More information at: www.bpmve.org

Open up the building : architectural relevance of building-users and their participations

As buildings have become more advanced and complex, our ability to understand how they are operated and managed has diminished. Modern technologies have given us systems to look after us but it appears to have taken away our say in how we like our environment to be managed. The aim of this paper is to discuss our research concerning spaces that are sensitive to changing needs and allow building-users to have a certain level of freedom to understand and control their environment. We discuss why, what we call the Active Layer, is needed in modern buildings; how building inhabitants are to interact with it; and the development of interface prototypes to test consequences of having the Active Layer in our environment.

Monster factory : International dynamics of the Australian horror movie industry

From the early-to-mid 2000s, the Australian horror film production sector has achieved growth and prosperity of a kind not seen since its heyday of the 1980s. Australian horror films can be traced back to the early 1970s, when they experienced a measure of commercial success. However, throughout the twenty-first-century Australian horror gained levels of international recognition that have surpassed the cult status enjoyed by some of the films in the 1970s and 1980s. In recent years, Australia has emerged as a significant producer of breakout, cult, and solid B-grade horror films, which have circulated in markets worldwide. Australian horror’s recent successes have been driven by one of its distinguishing features: its international dimensions. As this chapter argues, the Australian horror film production sector is an export-oriented industry that relies heavily on international partnerships and presales (the sale of distribution rights prior to a film’s completion), and on its relationships with overseas distributors. Yet, these traits vary from film to film as the sector is comprised of several distinct domains of production activity, from guerrilla films destined for niche video markets like specialist cult video stores and online mail-order websites to high(er)-end pictures made for theatrical markets. Furthermore, the content and style of Australian horror movies has often been tailored for export. While some horror filmmakers have sought to play up the Australianness of their product, others have attempted to pass off their films as faux-American or as placeless films effaced of national reference points.